If you missed the September Jobs report released by the US Labor Dept last week you are not alone with the competing news of Ukraine Peace deals, the burgeoning case with the pressure to release the Epstein films and broadsides from President Trump, it was easy to miss; but, now, with the Thanksgiving holiday a day away it’s time to hit the refresh button on what the American economy looks like, now that the government is open and the tabulators had enough data, due to that impasse to gain a windfall as employers hit the submit button for increased data collection.
To be brief, it’s still resilient, as the good news was continued with 119,000 non farm jobs, much more than expected, and an unemployment rate of 4,4m the marquee rate, as we prefer to call it, and even the household survey showed a steady pace with the big numbers for the health care industry, and the steady drain of manufacturing.
What beckons in mid December at the Federal Reserve Meeting, where economists are predicting that there will be no rate cut, because of this stable report and the market has been strong, so there seems to be no calls on Wall Street for a rate cut.
According to Reuters, “Some economists viewed the rise in the jobless rate as bolstering the argument for another Federal Reserve interest rate cut next month, while others said the better-than-expected job growth suggested the U.S. central bank should stay pat, especially since policymakers would not get another employment report before the December 9-10 meeting.”
While the September report, released late November, because of the shutdown, and the less probable release of October’s report, the Fed is at a disadvantage without the usual complete data, and the chances that the president might, or might not make a move to install his own at the Bureau of Labor and Statistics after he fired to the former head; but, with foreign wars, and interventions beckon from afar, and Trump might punt on this appointment.
The good news is that wages increased at the same rate of 0.2 percent and 3.8 over the years but some see murky waters ahead with not only the absence of October but the regions of July and August of 33,000 but, it’s equally important to realize that revisions are standard for BLS.
Layoffs are not seeing an increase but then again a surge of new hires is not occurring, but as is common knowledge tariffs, and their on again, off again have taken a toll on the business community, especially small business with employees under 500 employees, with where most Americans are employed and who don’t have the heft that the big retailers, such as Walmart have in negotiating lower tattoos, and there are some who are worried in that community. It’s a given that business markets don’t like uncertainty, and the end game from the White House has not been evident.
One area that is still showing growth and that is restaurants and bars hitting 37,000 new hires but as economists have pointed out this is mostly supported by high income earners, and as reported this is a K shaped economy with those at the top of the bar with high incomes and those at the bottom with lower wages leaving an empty middle.
With grocery prices still high at major markets, American working families are struggling to stay afloat with rent, mortgage payments and child care and the theme of affordability, seen in the New York mayoral race won the day for Zohran Mandami and now that term has entered the economic as well as political realm.
A common theme is that to maintain economic parity 100,000 jobs need to be maintained each month, but with cautious employers citing tariff uncertainty as a factor it’s an open question if that can be maintained.
"These changes complicate traditional interpretations of job numbers, but also point toward a labor market undergoing gradual, not chaotic, transformation," said Sung Won Sohn, a finance and economics professor at Loyola Marymount University. "The key question for the year ahead is whether the economy can maintain this delicate equilibrium,” according to Reuters.
One category, professional services and temporary workers, once a boom in the 1980s, has taken a nose dive with September showing a decrease of 13,000. Of course in competition with health care, it looks puny, but some are hoping that post holiday numbers might increase but others noting that any hiring in the retail sector has already been done, and stress that historically those workers are laid off in January.
Full time workers may have gained a bump of 675,000 and part time with 575,000 and a slight reduction in those working part time, but preferring full time give some hope to some economic observers, but notably there was an increase of those unemployed for 26 weeks, or more.
“September’s jobs report shows the labor market still had resilience before the shutdown, beating payroll expectations, but the picture remains muddy with August jobs revised to a job loss and the unemployment rate increasing,” said Daniel Zhao, chief economist at jobs site Glassdoor. “These numbers are a snapshot from two months ago and they don’t reflect where we stand now in November.” told CNBC, thus complicating the work of the Fed in December.
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