Challenges to voter rolls in 2024 by conservatives

With the die cast for the 2024 US Presidential election, and both the Republican and the democratic conventions being held and the verbal brickbats being thrown, and the less than 14 days before voters go to the polls on Nov. 5, and the polls grinding out data, right and left, and every utterance from Donald Trump, JD Vance, Kamala Harris and Tim Walz being treated as sacrosanct, there is one important aspect that does not seem to get as much attention from voters, as it should be, and that is voter access, specifically conservative groups making unsound allegations and charges of voter fraud towards state election boards.

Voter access is certainly not a new issue as American history has shown, especially during the turbulent 1960s when Black Americans were not given equal access, and blood was spilled, and demonstrations held, notably by Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. that garnered headlines in Alabama and Georgia, to name but two states.

In the Southwest, Mexican Americans also fought a bitter fight to get voter equality with the white majority. And, the battle continued recently with efforts by now Chief Justice John Roberts, and his success at efforts to nullify the Voting Rights Act of 1965. And, while literacy tests were outlawed, those Southern states who had the most egregious laws of inequality have lost their examinations, called preclearance, to ensure that the laws were adhered to, but now there are efforts to disenfranchise voters across party lines, as well as those of race and ethnicity.

The loss of the White House in 2020 by the GOP has stung them ever since along with the continued falsehood that Trump was cheated by the Democrats to get Joe Biden elected, and conservative groups have marshaled their armies to examine state voter rolls looking for voter fraud, and charging that non citizens have, and are continuing to vote despite the lack of evidence, even from former Trump administration officials.

Earlier this year Scot Hoen, Carson City Nevada’s chief election official, has kept his eye on the ball of election integrity believing, as reported by The Alabama Reflector, that he was doing the right thing for democracy. Little did he know that this was going to be as heroic, even tortured, as imaginable.

He was named in a lawsuit by the Republican National Committee, along with Nevada county clerk, as well as the secretary of state, alleging “that five localities had ‘inordinately high’ voter registration rates, and that the state is violating federal law by not having what are known as ‘clean’ voter rolls.”

The state responded by saying that there was flawed data used by the RNC and that their analysis was like “comparing apples to orangutans.”

Notably, as reported, “Former President Donald Trump’s lawyers assert without evidence that more than 1,500 dead Nevadans voted in 2020 and that an additional 42,000 in the state voted twice.”

Humor aside, these efforts have continued unabated and, now that Harris has exceeded her post convention “bump”, the stakes are high, as we said previously that the race, with her entrance, is no longer his to lose.

Unsurprisingly, these are occurring in “the “blue wall” states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, the centerpiece of Democratic campaigns that have won the White House in recent decades,” as identified by the Associated Press.

Historically, accusations by the GOP have been around since the 1960 election, with beliefs that John F. Kennedy was elected over Richard Nixon due to dead people voting.

Now with a deeply polarized nation, beset by concerns about asylum seekers and illegal immigration, police brutality against Black persons, and LGBT people, and the rights of parents of transgender children, plus economic concerns, American votes are at stake.

Aided by technology, conservative groups are pumping out mass challenges to plant falsehoods, and in another battleground state, Michigan, officials also faced a similar lawsuit, filed by the RNC in the same month.

David Becker, founder and executive director of the center for Election Innovation & Research, a nonpartisan organization that advises local election officials nationwide, told the Reflector, “When you see efforts to do mass challenges in the midst of the presidential primaries and months before a major election, i've got to wonder whether the intent is to create chaos and confusion amongst voters rather than legitimate list maintenance.”

Adding fuel to the fire the Republican led Georgia state government passed a recent bill that has been to “challenge voters and for how much evidence is needed to a successful challenge. It would also cut off registration removals within 45 days of an election,” as reported.

Indiana’s governor, Republican Eric Holcumb signed into law a bill that easily facilitates removal of voters with a comparison of “voter registration lists with motor vehicle lists for noncitizens,” and if a voter is flagged they would have 30 days to prove their citizenship.

Aided by tech, specifically a company called Eagle AI, that was developed to scan Georgian’s voter records, all of which not only places the onus on voters, in some states, but occupies valuable time of election officials.

The conservative groups have morphed to more than just that one, and there are those that have pushed back forcefully, and among them is All Voting is Local Action, a voting rights group, and Kristen Nabers, the Georgia state director, has said, as reported: “They’re perpetuating these lies that our voter toll are full of fraudulent voters and bloated.” and noted, “The burden on election officials is really considerable.”

Another stalwart is the Public Interest Legal Foundation, whose director Lauren Bowman Bis is quoted as saying that there have “been a lot of questions” for the 2020 election, continuing the mythology of a stolen election that defeated Trump, and she has claimed that she”has gone to cemeteries in Michigan, she said, she has seen name of active voters on tombstones.”

This group has outposts in Hawaii, Michigan and South Carolina, and “they have successfully sued Illinois and Maryland and gained access to those state’ voter lists,” reported the Reflector.

Their reach has even extended as far north as Maine, in another successful lawsuit to gain access to voter rolls.

The Voter Reference Foundation, sued Pennsylvania in February to gain similar access, and as with the others claiming that their goal is voter integrity, but at question is with the methodology, where outdated rolls are used in comparison to current data, a not so sleight of hand trick to make false claims.

Another route is using change of address forms when mail is forwarded, with current rolls but as the Brennan Center for Justice has stated, there is no accounting for people with the same names. But, they point out that “the good news is that county election boards have consistently rejected these challenges of the last few years. Over and over, the boards said that challengers don't provide enough evidence to remove anyone from the rolls.”

While these groups are undeterred, says the Center, it’s also obvious that in an already close presidential election with a history of the GOP using obfuscation, and falsehoods, which resulted in violence with the January 6th Capitol riots, that the road ahead is littered with minefields, and have stretched from voter access to disenfranchisement that will increasingly become difficult for some voters, who may feel hesitant to vote, especially with some vigilante groups predicting violence at the polls.

Adding even more fuel to the fire was a recent proposal by the Georgia Election Board requring that the computerized ballot boxes be broken open and that each ballot be handcounted to match the electronic tally, a move that Democrats and poll workers feel would unnecessarily delay the certification of the votes, but also that worker fatigue might result in errors.

The GEB is dominated by Trump loyalists and the proposal, while not welcome, is not entirely surpising.

Two Georgia judges recently reversed that move; one with a temporary bock and the other with a final order. As Reuters reported, in part: "Superior Court Judge Robert McBurney said in his decision on Tuesday that it was appropriate to pause the vote counting rule because it introduced fresh uncertainty into the process just weeks before Election Day."

"Anything that adds uncertainty and disorder to the electoral process disserves the public," according to the decision.

Furthermore: "The administrative chaos that will - not may - ensue is entirely inconsistent with the obligations of our boards of elections (and the State Election Board) to ensure that our elections are fair, legal, and orderly," the judge wrote.

While an appeal is expected, the block prevents another obstacle in the free and fair elections in the US.

Updated Oct. 25, 2024, 2:36 p.m. CDT

April Jobs Report brings much needed cooling

High expectations met the reality of lowered numbers for the April Jobs report issued by the US Labor Dept. on Friday giving 175,000 non farm jobs versus the expected 240,000 that most economists and observers predicted, and while some may be disappointed at the news, it’s good news for the Federal Reserve Bank, especially after the end of their recent meeting, where the Federal Open Market Committee decided, in agreement with its chair Jerome Powell, as it gives them some optimism as they deal with higher inflation, from last month’s CPI report, and while it was not a significant climb, it was a claim nevertheless and creates a challenge for the central bank as they struggle to meet their twinned mandate of 2 % inflation, and full employment.

This cooling down might lead the Feds to cut rates, currently on hold for now at 5.3 %, but in what has been a seesaw of many reports, not to mention market reactions, in the not too distant past, many in government and the banking community predicted a recession, and pooh poohed even the very idea of a soft landing that both Powell and Secretary Treasurer Janet Yellen said was going to happen. The fact that there was no recession and that the soft landing in fact occurred shows the unpredictable, but steady, nature of the American economy, over the last 18 months.

“The slower jobs report will be welcome news to the Federal Reserve and signals that interest rate hikes are impacting a labor market that has been extremely resilient over the past few years,” said Joseph Gaffoglio, president of Mutual of America Capital Management to The Hill.

The good news is that despite all, the American economy being solid, the elephant in the room is, of, course, inflation, and after a severe 4th quarter reduction in 2023, and  some dwindling, it rose to 3.5% in March, from 3.2% In February..

“It’s not a bad economy; it’s still a healthy economy,” said Perc Pineda, chief economist at the Plastics Industry Association to The New York Times; “I think it’s part of the cycle. We cannot continue robust growth indefinitely considering the limits of our economy.”

Even with a moderation in wages, to 3/9 %,  they are still above inflationary prices creating a considerable drive in consumer spending, the driver of the US economy, but where does that money come from? As we have noted before, it's still the surplus of pandemic savings, but economists are concerned about what happens when that money runs out, and savings are depleted.

The devil is in the details as the old cliché states, and the heavy hitters, for April, are still showing remarkable strength, with an increase  in health care and education adding 95,000 new jobs, retail which had a shaky report in the 4th quarter of last year, now with a surfeit of 20,000 jobs; construction still resilient with 9,000 new jobs, which some are attributing to state and local building efforts, and manufacturing is holding steady by adding 8,000 jobs, and while leisure and hospitality are still gaining, but at a disappointing 5,000 new jobs.

The unemployment rate inched up to 3.8% not a significant figure but, “Layoffs remained low and most job sectors appeared stable. Wage growth eased notably, though the unemployment rate remained under 4 percent for the 27th consecutive month — the longest stretch in more than 50 years. In fact, some economists said that the April data offered hopeful hints that the economy was headed toward a more stable footing, "reported the Times.

The GDP has increased, albeit slower than desired, at 1.6 annually, and has been attributed to regional challenges in finding a job, the durability of inflation, and those high interest rates that plague some consumers, but as noted, some are still spending freely.

The losers?  That catch all category of business services that showed a negative balance of 4,000, accompanied by a corresponding drop in temporary hires. And, this might be a cost factor since hiring costs have increased by 4.2 %, and were 2.9% in 2023.

One strong area of gains was for women, at prime working age, 25 to 54 years old, at 78 % or 307, 000 and while this is welcome news, there is still an income gap between those with men, and has deeply affected lower income women of color; and, child care, unsubsidized in the US, forces many women to work part time, leading to structural inequality.

Of course, the White House has looked at the report and is pleased, both with the cooling that could lead to future interest cuts, but that the slight uptick in unemployment is still showing a solid economy, and in fact the household telephone survey is nearly tied with this figure.

“Just 34 percent of voters approve of how President Biden has handled the economy, and 29 percent approve of his handling of inflation, according to a recent CNN poll, in their reporting, and “He’s also trailing former President Trump, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, who voters perceive would do a better job with the economy than Biden,” in their coverage for the April report. 

Meanwhile, as was noted, by the Times, “On Truth Social, Donald J. Trump, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, declared the report showed “HORRIBLE JOB NUMBERS.” Under Mr. Trump’s presidency, before the pandemic’s impact took hold in March 2020, monthly job gains averaged about 180,000 — just a tad higher than April’s gain.”

As the 2024 election season ramps up, so has scrutiny of the Fed and its interest rate policy, but the Federal Reserve maintains a traditional detachment from politics, and as Powell noted:

“If you go down that road, where do you stop? So, we’re not on that road. It just isn’t part of our thinking.”

For President Biden: How old is too old?

In the first 6 weeks of the new year, and with the ever increasing presidential election of 2024, one of the most overheated of political rhetoric has been the age of President Biden, and despite assurances from Democratic stalwarts who have dismissed this as unwarranted  political warfare, it has garnered headlines; and, then Republican presidential hopeful former governor of South Carolina, Nikki Haley, taking potshots at rival Donald Trump for confusing her with Nancy Pelosi, the former speaker of the House of Representatives, stating that if you asked any doctor they will tell you of the mental decline of those in their late 70s and 80s, a de facto acknowledgment of the ages of Trump and Biden, the former 77 years and the latter 81.

The clincher came last week when Special Counsel Robert Hur charged with investigating whether Biden would face criminal malfeasance for holding confidential papers from his days as vice president labeled him, our words, as a nice old man whole memory was so faulty he could not remember when his son Beau died.

It can be easily stated that this was not Biden’s week, and the claim that he could not remember his son’s death from brain cancer in 2015 seemed a low blow and caused a great deal of personal grief as he stated in the aftermath when according to the Associated Press, “And in response to Hur’s portrayal of him, Biden insisted to reporters that “My memory is fine,” and said he believes he remains the most qualified person to serve as president.

“How in the hell dare he raise that?” Biden asked about Hur’s comments regarding his son’s death, saying he didn’t believe it was any of Hur’s business.”

While Haley’s remarks, Hur’s opinion, and a slew of media coverage including the ribald, and often off color jokes that we have heard at bus stops, and in shops, gave us pause to examine outside of the rhetoric, the name calling, and the GOP baits: how old is too old, not only for the nation’s chief executive, but also in society in general, and in a society where men and women in their 70s and 80s are leading productive lives, and often working full time.

We also have often seen 90 year old's  described as the “new 40”. It was at this point we decided that there needed to be a closer examination of  age as a factor across the lifespan, especially in memory and intelligence; so this dictated a look towards the academy for a closer, more nuanced review, and away from political partisanship.

The basic questions remain: How controversial is age in the lives of 21st century people? How old is too old? Is cognitive decline inevitable?

A review of the psychological literature is revealing, and also moves beyond popular beliefs and even that of personal experience.

Let’s tackle some of the widely held beliefs, and yes, in early adulthood there is a peak,”for some types of learning and remembering” noted one psychology text, and research does show that as adults, younger people do have better recall said psychologists Donald Schonfeild and Bettty Anne Richards in a 1966 experiment.

Drilling down even further, within and without are not merely words, and psychological research has shown that there are minimal declines and greater decline, but it’s also important to realize that while recall can suffer, it’s not always age related, or even an interference in daily life, and with later experimental replications in 1990, it also seems that there are important distinctions in such variables as age, rural or urban home life; but, one conclusion stands out: older adults often have a rich storehouse of experiences to draw upon to examine, and weigh information, giving them a higher level of information processing that a comparatively younger person might not. 

Taking a brief detour from academic studies, and returning to the political arena, an older age political leader may have a distinct advantage over a younger one, temperament aside; so, if voters are taking an age stance in favor of someone say, two decades younger, then they may have to rethink that widely held belief.

Research has also shown that in some experiments 70 year old's can outdo 20 year old's, and perhaps lying outside that range, it might include people in their 50s.

It’s also been established in lab experiments that when attempting to recall faces while simultaneously performing another task, younger people can exhibit the same limitations in the standard identification of the prefrontal cortex (the area responsible for executive function and memory) of the brain as older adults noted Thomas H. Hess in a journal article, “Memory and Aging in  Contest,” in 2005.

Goal setting has also been established as a notable factor in retention, and “individuals are more likely to expend effort in expanding tasks that are persistent with personal goals.” 

The larger view is that while we “cannot generalize that older adults are more or less intellectually competent, we can’t say that they are more of less productive at work,” noted one psychology textbook, in a conclusion by Gibbon McEvoy and Wayne Casico in 1980, using a study of 40,000 subjects (workers) in 96 studies, with the text noting, “Apart from the inexperience of very young employees, age does not predict job performance.”

Israel Hamas War Generates Worldwide Protests

As the Israel Hamas war continues, well past the Oct. 7 attack on Israel by Hamas initial public sympathy  has turned away from Israel and toward Palestine as their casualties have mounted in excess of 20,000, far beyond the collateral definitions common to wars. While those boundaries have expanded so have the protests, and in America’s largest cities, Chicago to name one, have had sit-ins, demonstrations, and speeches condeming the killings nearly every week, some even on the same day.

While to a large extent these protests have been by Palestinian Americans, and their supporters, there have been many by Jews, as well, giving a multi shaded dimension to what could easily be seen as one dimensional, pointing to a complexity that might have become lost in the shuffle of social media, and press coverage.

On a recent weekend on Chicago’s posh Michigan Avenue, we noticed a truck emblazoned with multi-colored letters detailing the deaths of children in Gaza, with the tagline of “enjoy your weekend.”

In a curious manner the passengers on our bus studiously avoided looking at it, or each other; but., it’s no secret that the war has galvanized opinions on both sides, and people are becoming circumspect in both their speech, and manner.

That protests have notably taken a hold on college campuses, while not surprising, has taken hold in student populations that have heretofore tolerated uneasy, but tolerant alliances, such as the one at George Washington University with its large Jewish and Arab population, which earlier took the form of a projection on one of the walls of the Gelman Library.

As The Washington Post reported: “Students for Justice in Palestine (SJP) at GWU projected multiple images on the Estelle and Melvin Gelman Library on Oct. 24, the GWU statement on Tuesday said. Jewish student groups among others have objected to the images, which were in the form of slogans, and described them as potentially antisemitic. One of the projections, according to photographs, was the phrase “Divestment from Zionist genocide now.” Others included “Glory to our martyrs” and the slogan “Free Palestine from the river to the sea.”

The group faces a 90 day suspension.

The most salient, and recent, media explosion occurred when three of the nation’s most prestigious universities had their presidents appear before the U.S. Senate, angrily grilled by New York Republican Elise Stefanik, and fellow Republican Kevin Kieley, who asked a hypothetical question principally of Claudine Gay of Harvard,

Jonathan Chait, writing for New York Magazine said in a recent piece:

“The question posed was whether anti Semitiic demonstrations would be allowed within university policies. All three answered well within the parameters of the question, but were berated, when they did.”

 

Most importantly, he noted that, “The job of a college president involves constantly apologizing and promising to do better. This week, several elite college presidents’ object of their groveling was Congress, which subjected them to a series of largely impossible queries about antisemitism on campus at a hearing everybody agrees went quite poorly for them.”

The question to Gay was,  “If you were talking to a prospective student’s family, a Jewish student’s family right now,” asked Kiley, “could you look them in the eye and tell them that their son or daughter would be safe and feel safe and welcome on your campus?”

She replied, “We are absolutely committed to student safety.” Kiley noted acidly that Gay had dodged the question, that he repeated it but received the same answer.”

“And it is true that she failed to answer the question — because there’s no good answer. If Gay says Jewish students would feel absolutely safe on campus, she is denying the problem. If she says they wouldn’t, she is telling Jewish students they shouldn’t come to Harvard.”

Segueing to one significant note Chait added, “So what does it mean to make Jewish students feel safe on campus? One way would be to crack down on anti-Israel rhetoric that might make many Jews feel threatened. That would be consistent with the methods universities have sometimes employed to protect other minority groups. But it would also be deeply illiberal.”

“A more limited and defensible response would be to police conduct. When mobs of students disrupt classes and make it hard for students to walk around campus without being screamed at (or shoved), that creates an intimidating atmosphere.”

While it is not our intention to go into the details of university policies, it is easy enough for the careful reader, or listener, to discern that politics have co opted the protests on college campuses, and Stefanik and others have gone beyond the parameters of student safety and rights to attack elite liberal colleges.

An acolyte of former president Donald Trump, Stefanik seemed to take a wicked delight as the chief questioner, even at the expense of attacking her own alumnus, Harvard.

Let’s end this discussion to quote Chait who said that “The presidents’ efforts to deflect every question about genocide of the Jews into a legalistic distinction between speech and conduct may have sounded grating, and Stefanik’s indignant replies may have sounded like moral clarity. But on the whole, they were right to focus on the distinction between speech and conduct, and Stefanik was wrong to sneer at it. A better criticism would be that colleges are failing to protect Jewish students by refusing to enforce rules of conduct. But that is different from, and in some ways the opposite of, the point Stefanik chose to stand on.”

Lost in these political theatrics are some of the facts, notably the death toll of fleeing Gazans with no safe place to hide (85% of whom have been displaced), and, many of whom are children, sick with typhus and dysentery, forced to drink contaminated water, in the absence of fresh, to merely survive; 360,000 is the latest figure to date. And Israeli captives are still being held by Hamas.

Add to the charges of rape and sexual mutilation by Hamas against Israeli hotages are the equally disturbing images of captured Palestenian men, in hiding, and forced to strip to their underwear, often blindfolded, and forced to kneel in the streets, or herded into the back of military convoy trucks, the rage, on both sides increases exponentially.

While few would support the horrors of war, with its wide ranging repercussions, it’s also apparent to many observers, us included, that this is a wide ranging, and multifaceted response that is generating more and more anger, giving less and less support to Israel.

If disingenuous responses, like that of Stefanik, loom large in the public consciousness then the background of calls for a cease fire are becoming engendered, even as the United Nations tries to negotiate a resolution to do just that.

As the New York Times reported:

“United Nations and other aid workers warned on Saturday that a new U.N. Security Council resolution calling for stepped-up aid for Gaza’s embattled civilians would fail to stop the spiraling humanitarian crisis because it did not demand a full halt to the fighting.

“The resolution called on the U.N. Secretary General to appoint a special coordinator for aid to Gaza and establish a mechanism to speed up aid delivery in consultation with all relevant parties.”

“But without a cease-fire to accompany the stepped-up assistance, aid officials said they cannot address the insufficient food and fuel entering the territory, the collapse of Gaza’s commercial sector, frequent communications disruptions, or the inability of relief workers to reach many areas because of intensive Israeli airstrikes and ground operations.”

“Right now, we cannot deploy humanitarian aid. It’s impossible,” said Guillemette Thomas, the medical coordinator for Doctors Without Borders in Jerusalem. “People need to be able to get food and water without the fear of being bombed or killed or shot at any moment. We need to be able to move within the strip to access people,” she added.

“The only thing that would be helpful is a cease-fire.”

The questions, and these assertions, fueling the frustration of those advocating for a cease fire are based on what they see as intransigence by Israel against any, and all, attempts at lessening the constraints that have led to the starvation and suffering of millions of Gazans.

Again from the Times: “Nor did the resolution immediately undo any of the snarls that have limited aid entering Gaza, including a stringent inspection system by the Israeli authorities, who say they want to prevent the entry of weapons or other goods that could benefit Hamas’s military operations.”

“Human Rights Watch this week accused the Israeli government of “using starvation of civilians as a method of warfare,” which it called “a war crime.”

“Israeli officials said after the vote that they would still screen all goods entering Gaza, a process that U.N. officials and aid agencies have criticized as cumbersome and slow.”

“The resolution maintains Israel’s security authority to monitor and inspect aid entering Gaza,” Israel’s ambassador to the United Nations, Gilad Erdan, said after the vote.

“Last week, after significant international pressure, Israel opened its main cargo crossing into Gaza and began letting aid in. That crossing, Kerem Shalom, was open for the first time since the war began for major aid shipments.”

Facing criticism by Israeli citizens, some of whom blame Benjamin Netyanhu for the Oct. 7 attack, there are also those who feel that he is not doing enough to free the hostages, a political maelstrom that might engulf future efforts by the Israeli government to end the fighting. And, added to the shooting of three Israeli hostages who escaped and walking shirtless down the road and waving white flags, the prime minister faces multiple accusations that he is doing more harm, than good, and not freeing current hostages.

For the United States, a long time, and staunch, ally of Israel, the country, as well as President Biden who is up for reelection and facing low polls, is becoming ensnared in a near cataclysm of criticism, and is being urged to force Israel for a permanent cease fire.

Illinois Congresswoman and Senator Dick Durbin recently faced off screaming mobs outside their homes, as demands for a cease fire, and the pain of area residents, who have relatives in Gaza became too close to ignore.

All of these protest seem to no avail despite pleas from the Biden administration to stop the seemingly indiscriminate attacks on civilians, and as of Christmas Day, an offer by the Egyptian government for a temporary cease fire, and future governance of the Gaza Strip, as reported by ABC News:

“Israel and Hamas on Monday gave cool public receptions to an Egyptian proposal to end their bitter war. But the longstanding enemies stopped short of rejecting the plan altogether, raising the possibility of a new round of diplomacy to halt a devastating Israeli offensive in the Gaza Strip.”

“The Egyptian plan calls for a phased hostage release and the formation of a Palestinian government of experts to administer the Gaza Strip and occupied West Bank, according to a senior Egyptian official and a European diplomat familiar with the proposal.”

Perhaps the most poignant note of all comes in an OpEd piece for The Washington Post by Queen Rania of Jordan, who wrote, in part: “Since Oct.7, the vast majority of casualties in Israel, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip have been civilians. Whether killed, kidnapped or unjustly detained, each person leaves an unfillable void. There is no difference between the pain Palestinian and Israeli mothers feel over the loss of a child.”

US Jobs report for September kept on growing

If there is too much of a good thing,then the September Jobs Report released by the US Labor Dept on Friday, then that news of 263,000 nonfarm payrolls gave the Federal Reserve enough of the jitters to wonder how much more that can be done to lessen the hiring, and by turn, the still high wages that desperate employers are using to lure the best talent that is needed to attract them, and enough to frustrate the Feds as they struggle to meet their twinned mandate of full employment and 2 percent inflation.

There is so much resilience in the American economy, and that has recovered nearly all of the jobs lost to the Covid pandemic, yet there are still employers that need workers, even after lessening educational requirements, forgiving prior marijuana convictions, but still the need for more employers.

Women are still underrepresented and child care workers are one group that have lost employees, and the consequence is that many women are staying at home to take care of their children. Labor Force participation, overall, has stayed relatively the same, and 62.3 percent, a notch higher than in August.

While some have definitely decided to reevaluate their skill set and move away from prior jobs, but for many men, largely unaffected by child care are holding back, a conundrum for the Reserve, who is expected as The New York TImes stated, another “jumbo sized” rate increase, with bets of another 0.75 percent. And, while time will tell, the economy is like a watched pot that never boils.

The unemployment rate has inched down to 3.7 percent from 3.5 making it robust and also resilient, which equals a fifty year low; but, the elephant in the room is still inflation that has nibbled away at wage increases, as the public struggles to deal with high rents, and food prices, some even seeing double dollar increases on such prosaic groceries, such a doughnuts, not to mention the more protein based options such as meat.

Those wages up by 5 percent on an annual basis, and monthly by 0.3 percent, are not keeping up with inflation is a huge problem for consumers even as they have moved away from consumer products to services.

Fed governor Phillip T. Jeffries told the Times that he felt that “upward wage pressures in the future” can be problematic. But, some areas have faced challenges, and transitions, for example from the traditional nursing home, to aging in place with home health care aids, an area that has surged.

Some see that  a recession is inevitable, or are we inevitably, say some, conjoined with European central banks that say the same things, or are we on rosier shores in the US, or are we simply rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic?

Of course, the Fed moves, calibrated as they need to be, will lead to less jobs, especially for those wage earners at the low end.

“Mohamed El-Erian, Allianz’s chief economic adviser, said on Sunday that the U.S. is heading toward a recession that was “totally avoidable” amid ongoing concerns about inflation and economic stability, reported The Hill on Sunday, and also said that there was simple mismanagement by the Fed.

“One is mischaracterizing inflation as transitory. By that, they meant it is temporary, it’s reversible, don’t worry about it. That was mistake number one. And then mistake number two, when they finally recognized that inflation was persistent and high. They didn’t act. They didn’t act in a meaningful way,” 

Taking a closer look at some significant changes that Inflation has done has led to a lessening in an area that many had thought steady, leisure and hospitality, whether it's hotel room service, or restaurant servers. 

Retail is also seeing a downward path with major retailers such as Walmart saying that they will cut their holiday hiring, while the online retail giant, Amazon says it will not. 

A gamble, maybe, or is caution, the watchword?

Meanwhile the tone from the White House is optimistic as President Biden said to workers at a Hagerstown, Md. Volvo plant, “Our job market continues to show resilience as we navigate through this economic transition, the pace of job growth is cooling while still powering our recovery forward.”

With the November midterms nipping at his heels Biden has tried to sell the middle course as a path to recovery, while his Republican opponents want to tag him, and him alone, with failure to address inflation, which is really the province of the Federal Reserve, but with swords drawn for a fight, truth doesn't matter, but votes do.

Many economists don’t necessarily believe in this cooling as having much effect, but it plays well in Peoria, as the old comedians used to say.

Monkeypox, politics, and fear create frenzy across US

All politics are local, according to the old adage, and that seems to be true, now more  than ever with the Monkeypox virus that has spread across the United States which began this Spring and rose to approximately 5,200 cases mostly among gay men, or those who have sex with other men, regardless of self identification, and those with multiple  partners. 

The New York Times also reported, “The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported on Thursday that the United States has now confirmed more than 4,600 cases of monkeypox, which has already been declared a global health emergency by the World Health Organization. The U.S. case count is among the highest in the world, and the figure is almost certainly an underestimate. Men who have sex with men comprise 99 percent of the confirmed cases so far.”

While the virus is not limited to gay men, fears of stigmatization are already present, and many virologists and epidemiologists are anxious to emphasize that fact, as are gay community leaders.

Monkeypox was first seen in Europe in early May, shortly before it reached epic proportions in New York City, and Washington, DC, in late June, but, also in other large cities such as San Francisco and Chicago; and London Breed, San Francisco’s mayor, was forced to declare a public health emergency.

The approved vaccine was long stuck in a bottleneck in a Danish factory, until recently, when the FDA visited it to give final approval and there were long lines in both New York, and Washington, which forced many health providers to give only one dose of the two dose regimen.

Much like the early days of covid, testing has not been emphasized, and some say the five labs the government has contracted with, still leaves the nation short.

Biden administration efforts

The Biden-Harris administration earlier issued a white paper discussing its humanitarian efforts, but it was not seen by many, and with long lines many likened it to the huge supply problems faced with the covid vaccine that initially had severe supply issues.

While few in the LGBT community have been openly critical of Biden, with one saying, “at least he isn’t advising people to drink bleach like Trump,” but if supplies continue to be limited, that might occur, and with his sunken ratings, this is the last thing he needs before the November midterms.

Previously, Politico announced that Biden was poised to declare monkeypox a health emergency, one that is made by the US Department of Health and Human Services, and much like other national disasters would release “a slew of actions, including accessing new money and appointing new personnel, according to the law that dictates how and when the federal government can declare such an emergency.” 

Earlier this month, the Biden Administration announced that it has directed the Health and Human Services director to announce a national health emergency.

The New York Times reported that Xavier Becerra briefing the press said, “We’re prepared to take our response to the next level in addressing this virus, and we urge every American to take monkeypox seriously.” 

While some lawmakers have urged the administration for more action, and a list of the steps it has taken to advance help and to increase supply, "AIDS activists, who have been sharply critical of the administration, have been demanding an emergency declaration for weeks. “This is all too late,” said James Krellenstein, a founder of PrEP4All, an advocacy group. “I don’t really understand why they didn’t do this weeks ago.”

For those hoping that this declaration would increase vaccine supply, this is not to be, "Declaring the emergency would not ease that shortage, but the administration may take steps to allow quicker access to tecovirimat, the drug recommended for treating the disease," they added.

What does it do? "The emergency designation would allow the F.D.A. to authorize measures that can diagnose, prevent or treat monkeypox, without having to go through the agency’s usual exhaustive review. The agency relied heavily on this provision to speed tests, vaccines and treatments for the coronavirus."

Declaring an emergency also gives the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention more access to information from health care providers and from states. Generally, federal agencies like the C.D.C. cannot compel states to share data on cases or vaccinations.

Tom Ingelsby, director of the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security at the Bloomberg School of Public Health, told them, “We’re having a lot of challenges around the country with their rate of rise in terms of new cases,” and while “not a high threat to the general population, . .  . it has the potential to spread to additional vulnerable communities.”

In agreement, Dr. Tom Frieden tweeted, “The recent outbreaks of monkeypox, and Marburg show why we better learn the lessons of Covid. Unless we make significant investments in global health and strengthen systems to quickly find and stop new disease threats, we and our children will face the consequences.”

Frieden is the former commissioner of the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene (2002–2009) and is now president and CEO of Resolve to Save Lives, a $225 million, five-year initiative to prevent epidemics and cardiovascular disease, according to his Wikipedia profile.

Monkeypox has symptoms raging from a rash, or sores anywhere on the body, including the genitals, and often with flu-like symptoms, and can include swollen lymph nodes and is often spread through sex, and other intimate actions, such as kissing and physical contact; but, also with sharing infected towels, clothing, bedding, and other materials. But, to note, symptoms can appear, without a linear pattern, therefore making testing essential.

The sores can also be extremely painful, and gay men have been advised to refrain from sex, by some health personnel, and to immediately test if symptoms occur.

Vaccine shortages

Despite the arrival of more vaccines, the US is still critically short of what is needed and according to the Washington Post, “Even with the latest shipments, there are only enough vials of the two-dose Jynneos vaccine to cover about a third of the estimated 1.6 million gay and bisexual men who officials consider at highest risk and who are being urged to get the shots.”

Latest reports are that there will not be more deliveries nationwide until October, but The Post continued, “The shortfall of Jynneos, the only vaccine approved by the Food and Drug Administration to protect against monkeypox, has health officials at every level of government scrambling to come up with strategies. Those in hard-hit communities like New York City and D.C. have opted to give out only one dose for now, against regulators’ advice, while pushing federal officials for larger allotments.”

Previously San Francisco’s KTVU reported  that San Francisco had 281 probable and confirmed monkeypox cases. This makes up 33% of cases statewide. Breed said data shows that San Francisco has been hit the hardest and health officials don’t want to wait another day to get people the testing, vaccines and treatment they need.”

They later expected, "to receive 4,220 monkeypox vaccine doses, enabling Zuckerberg San Francisco General Hospital to reopen a vaccination clinic on August 1 that closed July 13 and again this week when supplies ran out.”

Breed has emphasized that "This is not going to be ignored. This is a public health crisis," Breed said in her calls for more vaccines.”

Personal appeals to local Chicago lawmakers resulted in responses that held the Feds accountable for the supply problem, and that they could not give what they didn't have, with some being almost defensive.

We witnessed long lines of men, in nearly 90 degree heat, in Chicago waiting outside the offices of Test Positive Aware Network, (TPAN)  for two hours, only to be told that the vaccine had run out and to come back the following week, and that those with a number, an unknown fact to many, would then get vaccinated;  which in turn caused one bystander to remark, “This is just like Covid.”

There were also unconfirmed rumors that some social venue vaccination efforts in Chicago, anxious about supplies, vaccinated some people ahead of others.

Scott Gottlieb, a former commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration, and now a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, opined in The New York Times that “Our country’s response to monkeypox ‌‌has been plagued by the same shortcomings we had with Covid-19. Now if monkeypox ‌gains a permanent foothold in the United States and becomes an endemic virus that joins our circulating repertoire of pathogens, it will be one of the worst public health failures in modern times not only because of the pain and peril of the disease but also because it was so avoidable . . . We don’t have a federal infrastructure capable of dealing with these emergencies.”

According to the Illinois State Rep. Kelly Cassidy’s earlier email newsletter, “CDPH (Chicago Department of Public Health) has distributed over 5,000 doses of the vaccine and reports they are expecting a delivery of an additional 15,000.” 

Many say that even this is not enough, and criticize the early decision to vaccinate only those with confirmed or, “likely contacts of monkeypox patients.”

In a recent interview on WAMU’s ‘1A”, epidemiologist Dr. Celine Gounder noted that more studies need to be done on the efficacy of one dose, while many are waiting for the arrival of more vaccines, and with concerns of those who are not having multiple partners, waiting for the vaccine, she analogized to a neighborhood that is on fire and that water must be given only to the houses that are actually burning.

The Biden paper noted that “as additional doses are received from the manufacturer, HHS will make them available to jurisdictions to expand availability to the vaccine for individuals with elevated risk.”

State level efforts

Illinois governor JB Pritzker had urged the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, “to use the tools available at the federal level to immediately increase the availability of vaccines in at-risk communities, “ Cassidy wrote

Shortly afterward, in a late development, he declared Illinois a public health emergency, and said, ““MPV is a rare, but potentially serious disease that requires the full mobilization of all available public health resources to prevent the spread.”

This will ensure smooth coordination between state agencies and all levels of government, thereby increasing our ability to prevent and treat the disease quickly. We have seen this virus disproportionately impact the LGBTQ+ community in its initial spread. Here in Illinois we will ensure our LGBTQ+ community has the resources they need to stay safe while ensuring members are not stigmatized as they access critical health care.”

Illinois currently has the fourth highest cases in the nation, 888, with Chicago at 460. Overall the US has, at current estimate 14,115.

In its local coverage, NBCChicago.com reported, “officials can [now] more easily secure vaccine shipments and ramp up distribution to ensure the most impacted communities receive treatment as soon as possible."

Funding needed

Of course, going further also requires money, and in a private estimate, some federal officials said, on deep background, that  $7 billion is needed to even meet “the scope and urgency of the current situation”, their reporters revealed.

Breaking it down, in an internal memo that Post reporters obtained, there would be $6.9 billion needed to have the vaccine made in the US, and “could also secure $19 million new doses of vaccine for monkeypox, replenish 4 million doses for smallpox preparedness efforts and more.”

Returning to vaccine supply shortages: “Some experts also are advocating that people be encouraged to take a less desirable vaccine, ACAM2000, which was approved for the related virus of smallpox but not for monkeypox.”

“There are not enough shots” to pursue a strategy of relying solely on Jynneos, said a federal official working on the monkeypox response, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to comment, warning of a possible “vaccine cliff” in coming weeks,” added the Post..

Dosage variance and advice to address shortages

“Some experts have called on U.S. officials to instead encourage Americans to get vaccinated with ACAM2000, which was approved for smallpox, a related virus, and that the United States had previously stockpiled in case of a potential outbreak. That vaccine relies on injecting people with a live, if weakened, virus, which carries additional risks. It also is administered in a series of rapid punctures that can draw blood and lead to scarring. The vaccine is available as needed, although public health officials have been wary of relying on it.”

 

ACAM2000 is not recommended for those with compromised immune systems, and with many people still living with HIV in the gay male population, the risks are enormous.

 

“No one’s crazy about it. You shouldn’t be crazy about it. But you should give people the choice,” said Ezekiel Emanuel, a bioethicist who has advised the Biden administration on coronavirus and attended a White House briefing this week on monkeypox,” according to the Post.

Earlier reports at the end of July from the City of Chicago said that there was an increase in vaccines and that, “Those 33,000 doses will come from the nearly 800,000 doses that were cleared by the Biden administration . . . to arrive over the next several weeks.”

 

Even more alarming is this: “Even with the latest shipments, there are only enough vials of the two-dose Jynneos vaccine to cover about a third of the estimated 1.6 million gay and bisexual men who officials consider at highest risk and who are being urged to get the shots.”

One shot or two? Or half?

Previously, “U.S. officials said that they have now secured 1.1 million Jynneos vaccine doses, including 786,000 doses finally cleared by regulators after being delayed in Denmark for more than a month, and which will “be in the hands of people who need them over the course of the next several weeks,” Becerra said in a later press conference. Federal regulators reiterated Friday that the vaccine should be given to most people as a two-dose regimen, meaning that U.S. officials have enough shots to cover about 550,000 people.”

As we have seen, that is being ignored in some areas, and while the studies are yet to be done, using one shot, there is some evidence to suggest that they can be effective as 2 doses, but this has also provoked a fierce debate among researchers and physicians, and as Goudner said, in the absence of studies, there is a feeling that many providers are taking what they can get. 

In a recent development, in order to ensure adequate vaccine supplies, there has been a move to fractional shots, "which allows providers to use only one-fifth of the current dosage. The vaccines may now be administered intradermally or between layers of skin, rather than in the fat layer under the skin," noted the Times in a recent update.

While there have been no objections by the manufacturer of the vaccine, this method may increase side effects "such as redness, swelling and firmness." And, there has only been one study that examined this method.

Another factor is training, not many of the providers in the US have that training, and there is the perception among  some Black men, receiving the vaccine with that method, may feel slighted; and, already the overwhelming recipients have been white men.

“The 500,000 additional doses that the U.S. ordered in June is anticipated to be delivered this year,” a Bavarian Nordic spokesperson wrote in an email, declining to respond to specific questions about timing or the company’s commitments to other countries.”

Giving some hope was “Sarah Lovenheim an HHS spokeswoman [who] said officials had expedited the doses announced this week and were working to accelerate future shipments, too.

“We’ll seize every opportunity to speed up the path to secure more doses ahead of schedule, as possible,” Lovenheim said.

Another problem is that there has been a change in delivery systems that health care officials across the nation have said is burdened by "missteps and confusion", reported the Times; and, the distribution system VTrcks, noted for its efficiency and linkage to state systems has not been used for this vaccine, and instead is using email, instead of a distribution system and orders have been severely delayed, and in one instance a shipment to Ft. Lauderdale, Fla, was reported as being sent to Oklahoma, then Mississippi, and then Florida.

While HHS has switched to a different system it is still not linked to state immunization databases.

“Peter Hotez, dean for the National School of Tropical Medicine at the Baylor College of Medicine, said he was open to the idea of “dose sharing” as a temporary fix, suggesting that people could get one dose of Jynneos and one dose of ACAM2000.”

“We don’t have much of a window to fix this,” Hotez said. “Once it gets into the rodent population, it becomes a fixture here, like it’s been in Central and West Africa.”

Updated August, 20, 2022 at 4:25 p.m. CDT

Please note that this is an evolving story, and will be updated as needed.