Friday’s report form the US Dept. of Labor gave an unexpected rise of 531,000 nonfarm jobs to the country, in October, exceeding expectations of 431,000 and with an upward revision of the August and September reports sending a balloon into the sky after last month’s dismal report; and, joined by a decrease in the general unemployment rate to 4.6 percent, there was joy on Main Street as well as Wall Street.
While there's still a loss of 3.8 million jobs lost since the Covid pandemic hit America, nearly all economists were unanimous in not simply their joy, but also the feeling that the nation was well on the way to recovery.
There was a lot of good news, and according to The New York Times, was that “especially vulnerable sections like hospitality and retail, where workers are dealing face to face with customers,” made gains, even while fears of getting sick are still prevalent.
“This was a strong employment report that shows the resilience of the labor market recovery from the pandemic,” said Scott Anderson, chief economist at Bank of the West in San Francisco, to the Times
In fact, amidst the joy, the reality is that this concentration causes many to worry, not just employers, but economists and academics alike who fear that this is an area that does not allow for sustaining not just a national economy, but a strong middle class.
Most employers, nevertheless, are still grappling with finding enough qualified workers, and many of those employed in the gain area of restaurants and hospitality are reevaluating, (as noted last month), their net worth, and are discerning if it is worth it to work long hours on their feet, rushing about, with little chance of advancement, and facing the rising costs of housing and food costs (which have shot up by 3%), and most importantly child care.
One group, in particular, that has faced this challenge are Black and Brown women, who make up a large share of the jobs in leisure and hospitality, and the current increase of 164,000 would have been even higher, had there been higher wages, and affordable child, or even elder care.
For women, the results for October showed only a modest gain of 180,000, as this group on the whole, women of color exempted, also faces the challenge of child care, something that was supposed to have been solved in September, with the expected increase to classroom learning, versus the pandemic driven remote. Yet, the patchwork of school openings and mask mandate protests, dimmed expectations.
Overall the October labor force participation rate was relatively flat at 61.6 percent with only a slight increase for those aged 25 to 54, peak working years for many. A fact that has heads shaking, but many feel is directly attributable to the virus, and a reluctance, if able to work, fear based decisions, for some, as they work shoulder to shoulder.
Some employers are giving enhanced benefits, transportation allowances, and varied schedules and that has worked well for one hotel in St. Louis, Mo. cited the Times.
This mix and match approach is valued by economists, especially Mary Daly, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, who told the Times, “I, as an economist, predict that will be better for job matches and a better economy in the long run.”
Largely, the problem is still increasing vaccinations among Americans,especially in Republican dominated areas of the South, where vaccination efforts have been politicized, and angry mobs have fought against mask mandates, and vaccination for school personnel, and first responders, and has now spread to Northern cities, such as New York, and Chicago.
Somewhat heartening is the greater rate of vaccination, where approximately 70 percent of the US has received at least one shot, and the subsequent weakening of the virulent Delta Virus strain has given some the impetus to travel and, return in greater numbers to restaurant dining, a fact reflected is the notable increase in food and drinking establishments to 119,000.
Equally concerning is that the Bureau of Economic Analysis said that the US economy saw growth of only 2.0 percent in the 3rd quarter, noted The Washington Post, in late October: “The coronavirus tore through unvaccinated communities during much of the July-through-September period measured in Thursday’s gross domestic product report, eviscerating economists’ expectations from earlier in the year of continued rapid growth near the 6.3 and 6.7 percent seen in the first two quarters of 2021.”
Recently the Commerce Dept. reported that the economy grew by 0.5 percent, in the same quarter, with both attributing the slowdown to the virus.
What is now abundantly clear, to many, is that resolving the US economy will take time, and patience with increased efforts to gain greater vaccination, above all, but, also further legislative solutions to the country's most pressing problems that have been further delineated, and exposed, as a direct result of the pandemic.
All of this is set against a backdrop of supply chain problems: backorders of parts, whole merchandise, a shortage of workers, and ships sitting at ports, waiting to dock.
The conundrum is that for many Americans the enforced lockdowns swelled bank accounts, not only with cash unspent, but a round of stimulus checks that many families, facing uncertainty, salted away, and are now spending it. And, they are joined by those at home still clicking away at the goodies on their computer screens.
Optimism stil reigns and the decrease in the variant is one reason, and also that there was some forethought, with the coming holiday season as some “Businesses were able to build up their inventories — or at least slow the supply-chain bleeding — ahead of the holiday season, despite continued logistical snarls. People may have to be flexible on the exact gifts they pick out for friends and family. But they’ll probably have options.”
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