January Jobs report hits the moon with huge numbers

Shock and awe was the reaction to Friday’s jobs report for January from the US Department of Labor as the news of 517,000 non farm jobs spread across the media, and jaws dropped from the halls of academia to the mythical Main Street, as they tried to absorb the huge number, when only, at best 182,000 were expected, accompanied by a 3.4 unemployment rate, one not seen since 1969.

President Biden was ecstatic saying that his brand worked, and worked well, and gave a smidgen of the joy he will give in his State of the Union address on Feb. 7. This follows on the heels of many legislative sucesses in recent weeks, and will no doubt be a part of his announcement of his relection campaign.

As he stated, “I’m happy to report that the state of the union and the state of the economy is strong.”

There was however some wailing and nashing of teeth in the marbled corridors of the Federal Reserve building, where Chairman Jerome Powell, already struggling to battle inflation through a series of rate hikes, will see that the road is still uphill in efforts to tame prices, despite a glimmer of light with lower automobile prices, and gasoline.

Despite more jobs for Americans, and wages, there was a slight drop in consumer spending, with a transtion from spending on goods to services, as they tired of bread making machines at home, in favor of dining out, even beyond their geographic locals. But, for Powell this is not enough and the recent rate hike of a quarter of a percentage point to a target range of 4.5%, 4.75% may have further affect.

The nations employers in some areas have tried to mitigate any looming layoffs, and balance sheet deficits, by trimming benefits, as they also trimmed qualifications in some open slots to attract workers; and, that seems to be working, but only time can tell.

Powell did note that his efforts at “disinflation that we have seen so far has not come at the expense of a weaker labor market.”

When postioned against layoffs in the tech, finance, housing and media sectors Friday’s huge numbers seem to have unerved some economists, in this tight labor market. And, some including Lael Brainard, Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve, noted recently, that the calibrating efforts we’ve discussed in prior months, could swing too far, and a time lag may not show the consequnces of being too aggresive, till too late.

Ergo last week’s small increase from the Feds, the smallest in eleven months. Let caution be the path ahead, say many economists, versus the hole plugging that was seen last year.

What has hardly changed, ironically, is the rate of labor force particiaption, which has barely budged, and is currently at 62.4, showing the increasing willngness for many baby boomers to remain retired, not even transitoning to become Walmart greeters, wielding a yellow marker for customer reciepts.

For women there are still issues of child care, and in two person households, sacrifice may be the watchword. In the absence of government funded child care, this is a reality that must be embraced.

Nevertheless the US economy grew at 2.1 percent by the end of last year, and nearly all jobs lost to the Covid pandemic have been restored.

Of course, no picture of the nation’s economy would be complete without a discussion of wages, and that shows a moderation of 0.3 percent from December of 2022, and 4.4 percent over the course of 2022.

Taking a look at that growth, broadly speaking we can see 128,000 in leisure and hospitality, including bars and restaurants, with demands for meals and drinks have begun to return to normal pattern, as well as air travel, despite recent snafus with Southwestern Airlines and stranded passengers.

Local government employmnt, also improved, especailly on the state level as seen with the end of striking employees at the University of California schools.

Temporary workers got more assignments and their ranks swelled to 26,000.

Black employment steadied at 5.4 percent with a bump from Black women, but the gains were relative to the higher unemployment in that group, and taking a glance at the end of 2022, there was an increase among Black men of 5.3 percent, with women it was a decrease of 4.7 percent.

There has also been a seesaw efect with a decrease of 5.5 percent in Spetember of 2019, and in November of 101`, thee was a decrease for Black women of 5 percent, and now while there is praise for improvement, Black employment, overall, is higher when compared to whites, Asians and Hispanics.

Kate Bahn, director of labor market policy and chief econmist at the Washington Center of equitable Growth told CNBC that “Sometimes when folks see improvement, they see it as positve, but the disparities  are stil there.

Let’s take a closer look at the elephant in the room, inflation, as fears continue, despite the absence of a recession, which many curiously want to see; but, as we see that some price increases were temporay, and that the effects of supply chain weakness has abated, along with the early energy and gas increases that  have leveled of since the early days of the war in Ukraine. 

Implict in some of the chair’s remarks is a desire for a soft landing, that some observers rejected last year, that incudes a mild recession, but optimists such as Aaron Sojouner told NPR, “Inflation has come down but there’s not a recession.”

While there is still a hard slog ahead, we can all be thankful for that.

October employment in US keeps pressure on inflation

Friday’s report from the US Labor Dept for October showed, still, the resilience of the American job market with 261,000 jobs gained, despite the predictions of economists of a number closer to 200,000 based on the September report that had a gain of just below 315,000, and these consistently high numbers have caused the Federal Reserve Bank to issue another increase, this time, once again, of 3.75 percentage points to fight inflation.

The hgh job numbers coupled with high wages, have allowed many Americans to increase demands for both goods and services, even with those wages buying power reduced by inflation.

Wage growth has been a factor since late summer and its growth has kept pressure on Inflation, as The Wall Street Journal reported In August:

“Wage gains help consumers spend money in the face of higher prices for restaurant meals, groceries and lodging. But many companies are having to pay more for labor at the same time that other business expenses are rising, including for transportation and logistics, said Omair Sharif, head of forecasting firm Inflation Insights LLC.”

Those prices are passed on to consumers, he added.

As most Americans have seen, at the gas pump, and at the supermarket, “wages haven’t kept pace with inflation. Private sector wages and salaries declined 3.1% in the second quarter from a year earlier, when accounting for inflation,” added the Journal.

With the current inflation, the highest in 40 years, showing no signs of abatement, the central bank has its hands full to meet its Congressional mandate of maximizing employment and stabilizing prices, the latter being the most difficult. 

“What I see in this is the imprint of beginning weakness,” said Diane Swonk, the chief economist at KPMG. “But it’s not enough to derail the Fed.”

While many have blamed President Biden for failure to act, the responsibility lies fully in the hands of the Reserve, under the direction of Jerome Powell, and its measures, interest rate hikes, are the key to lowering the temperature of inflation, and this report does show that there has been some effect, just not enough, and as we have noted before, the efforts at calibration has risks: too much, and there is the chance of a deep recession, with attendant job loss (mostly on the lower end) sending shockwaves across the economy, but letting inflation become the norm, then we have the problem of the 70s and 80s, where inflation became the norm, until Paul Volcker stepped in to intervene.

The unemployment rate of 3.7 percent, what we refer to as the marquee rate, is normally balanced with the household survey, but that is being temporarily suspended due to a format change.

Equally worrisome is the labor force participation rate which at 62.2 has barely moved, with many people, on the sidelines, and some, especially older workers fearful of the still present Covid virus, and those who have sought training, and education for another field; and, this has become especially true for service workers in restaurants, and hotels, to relieve themselves of long hours standing on their feet. 

In total 4.1 million have quit their jobs.

 

Still others, mostly women, who don’t have adequate child care (an area that the US lacks) have left the workforce to care for them.

One often unnoticed facet of the jobs  market deficit has been a shortfall in immigration, and this shortage “has become an economic problem for America,” according to The Economist, they noted that it is “harder for companies to find workers and threatens to do more damage to the economy, But whereas unauthorised border crossing are a perennial controversy, the drop in overall immigration has barely registered in Congress.”

Looking at fiscal year 2020/2021, we have the addition of only 247,000 people, continuing a pre pandemic trend but that was exacerbated in 2017, by the Trump administration restrictions “from several predominantly Muslim countries.”

This has been especially seen in restaurants and accommodation sectors, “which draws a quarter of its employees from the foreign born population, [and] could not fill about 15% of job openings last year.”

In short,  before then,“New immigrants accounted for nearly 70% of the growth in the American labour force in the 2010s.”

On a somewhat brighter note, for Black Americans, the unemployment rate has been 5.3, from 5.8 percent unemployment,reflecting some possible changes, although mostly unattributable to a specific reason.

The outlook despite inflationary fears is solid and “All in all, the job market is still hot,” said Daniel Zhao, an economist at the career site Glassdoor, to The New York Times, and “There’s still some cushion before we actually hit the ground.”

For Biden, the report, coming just before the midterm elections, offers some good news, but it’s a mixed bag as he faces a barrage of criticism from the right, who seeing the inflationary numbers, say it is  all his fault. Nevertheless he said in a statement from the White House on Friday, “While comments by Republican leadership sure seem to indicate they are rooting for a recession, the U.S. economy continues to grow and add jobs even as gas prices continue to come down.”

While the Fed may make smaller interest rate increases, say some, at its December meeting, Powell had to backtrack hopes, by noting that any actions in that area would depend on the data, and indeed most Reserve observers have noted, much like his predecessor, Janet Yellen, he is data dependent.

Also part of the mixed bag is the effect on consumers and while the slight dip in employment shows some effect as we have noted, but mortgage rates took a slight dip before Friday’s numbers were released, down from the prior week of 7.16, yet as  Bankers Association, reported that the 30 year rate had fallen to 7.06 percent on the average, “mortgage rates have still shot up to more than 7 percent, up from 4.2 percent in March and from their pandemic low point of 2.7 percent”, according to The Hill.

Since mortgage rates on a 30 year fixed “don’t move in tandem with the Fed’s benchmark rate, but instead track the yield on 10 year treasury bonds” with multiple factors interplaying, it bears watching for investors and buyers.

For the rental market there is some easing according to the Zumper National Report, with one bedroom apartments decreasing to 0.8 percent to a dollar figure of $1,491.00, and two bedrooms lowered by 0.7 percent, or $1,832, across most urban markets; and while, this smaller decrease in rentals offers some hope, most realtors don’t see this as a trend, but something to be watched.

And, watched, it will be.

The November report, once released, will have a great deal of attention by the market, as well as the government, and commercial interests, as it might be a bellwether for the end of the 4th quarter of 2022,  as well as a harbinger for January of 2023.

August US Jobs Report shows resiliency, despite inflation

The United States economy has, once again, proved its resiliency with the August Jobs Report that showed continued strength in the monthly report issued by the Labor Department that showed  a healthy 315,000 non-farm jobs exceeding predictions of 300,000, and while not the show stopping number from July, employment is on the rise and also with wages, and there was a slight uptick in the employment rate to 3.7 percent, but that is less worrisome than the still red-hot job market.

The good news is that the slowdown is what the Federal Reserve wants to cool down inflation, and those still high job numbers also come with higher wages, and those higher wages, even while nibbled from higher prices are causing the central bank worries on how to bring it all down, in a calibrated way, and not by the earlier miscalculations from the 1970s where two decades of robust inflation ruled, or rather ruined the day.

While some economists are concerned that this slowdown is what is needed, there are others that feel that last year’s predictions of a soft landing  for the nation’s economy are long gone.

The New York Times reported that, “The central bank is still all but certain to raise interest rates at its meeting this month, probably by at least half a percentage point and perhaps by three-quarters of a point. That decision may rest on what happened to consumer prices in August; that data is scheduled to be released on Sept. 13, a week before the Fed’s meeting.

Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, whos has been on the hot seat for some months is someone who is data driven, and it will take some more data for he, and the regional governors to make a final consensus, and vote, on the size of the increase; but, there are many who are predicting another huge increase, perhaps as much as 0.75 percent, but all bets are on the table.

Politically, the news couldn't have come at a better time for President Joe Biden whose ratings are still tanked, and with the midterms around the corner, and he had this to say:

“Jobs are up, wages are up, people are back to work. And we’re seeing some signs that inflation may be — may be, I’m not over promising — may be beginning to ease,” Mr. Biden said at the White House. Coupled with falling gas prices, he said, “America has some really good news going into Labor Day weekend.”

While American employers, for some time, have complained about not finding the right type of worker with the right qualifications, and many are still saying it, others have noticed an increase in more qualified people returning to work, and that very well maybe as the TImes noted, a reflection of inflationary process as many people try to walk the financial tightrope, especially with high rents, and especially in large urban areas as New York, Los Angeles and Chicago.

“And headlines about layoffs and a possible recession may be spurring some people to return to work while they can. A recent survey conducted by the career site ZipRecruiter found that job seekers were feeling less confident about their searches, and were putting more importance on job security than on flexibility.

In fact, labor force participation (LFP) did show an increase of 0.3 percentage point, at an overall 62.4 overall percentage.

“People are spending down that pandemic nest egg a little more quickly than they expected because of rising prices, and now feel a bit more nervous and a bit more desperate to find a job,” said Julia Pollak, the chief economist at ZipRecruiter.

Desperation may be facing American Blacks as they face dim prospects for greater employment, and this report gives them a 6.9 unemployment rate, nearly double that of whites, (but steady across the board over several months) making cuts into wealth building, not only to just meet basic needs.

Often times flourishing in the service sector, these are some of the jobs that drew them into great demand, and with some employers waving aside less previously held requirements such as a high school diploma, or misdemeanors, or even weak performance and job histories, these are the same areas that could be cut as the Fed works to calibrate ways to cool down, what is still a red hot jobs market.

That, as former Treasury secretary Larry Summers noted last year in an analysis, could result in double digit unemployment for Blacks, historically seen unemployment seen across the decades and eroding the wage increases they gained over the last few months.

Rising wages have become, despite inflation’s deleterious effect on them, a concern for Powell and this slowdown in employment which may increase by year’s end also has can help, but is a double edged sword for many, especially in the service sector, and with two  jobs available for every job seeker, the elevation in wages to 5.2 percent is being watched as a barometer for anti-inflation measures.

Coupled with supply chain issues and commodity pressures has increased the pressure for Powell to determine how to juggle all of the balls to fight inflation in the coming months.

That aside, many are quitting jobs to attain those higher wages, for those that need qualified employees, especially in the private sector, and as The Hill reported, “Job seekers on Indeed.com are looking for ever-higher wages, Ann Elizabeth Konkel, an economist at Indeed Hiring Lab, explained. The number of Indeed users seeking jobs with a $20 per hour wage rose above those seeking $15 per hour in June 2022, and the number of jobseekers looking for $25 per hour is up 122 percent over the past 12 months.”

Coming out on top for August were retail, 44,000, manufacturing, 22,000, and business services, 68,000, and healthcare with 48,000 - although still reduced from burn out by staff caring for COVID-19 patients. And, while these areas are expected to grow, they are also vulnerable to downturns, as predicted, by later Fed actions..

For now, just now, this is the time for those looking to gain, or change employment to do so now, to lock in either a better wage, or better working conditions. As the old adage says: “Strike while the iron is hot.”

Up, up and away with US Jobs Report for October

 Friday’s report form the US Dept. of Labor gave an unexpected rise of 531,000 nonfarm jobs to the country, in October, exceeding expectations of 431,000 and with an upward revision of the August and September reports sending a balloon into the sky after last month’s dismal report; and, joined by a decrease in the general unemployment rate to 4.6 percent, there was joy on Main Street as well as Wall Street.

While there's still a loss of 3.8 million jobs lost since the Covid pandemic hit America, nearly all economists were unanimous in not simply their joy, but also the feeling that the nation was well on the way to recovery.

There was a lot of good news, and according to The New York Times, was that “especially vulnerable sections like hospitality and retail, where workers are dealing face to face with customers,” made gains, even while fears of getting sick are still prevalent.

“This was a strong employment report that shows the resilience of the labor market recovery from the pandemic,” said Scott Anderson, chief economist at Bank of the West in San Francisco, to the Times

In fact, amidst the joy, the reality is that this concentration causes many to worry, not just employers, but economists and academics alike who fear that this is an area that does not allow for sustaining not just a national economy, but a strong middle class.

Most employers, nevertheless, are still grappling with finding enough qualified workers, and many of those employed in the gain area of restaurants and hospitality are reevaluating, (as noted last month), their net worth, and are discerning if it is worth it to work long hours on their feet, rushing about, with little chance of advancement, and facing the rising costs of housing and food costs (which have shot up by 3%), and most importantly child care.

One group, in particular, that has faced this challenge are Black and Brown women, who make up a large share of the jobs in leisure and hospitality, and the current increase of 164,000 would have been even higher, had there been higher wages, and affordable child, or even elder care.

For women, the results for October showed only a modest gain of 180,000, as this group on the whole, women of color exempted, also faces the challenge of child care, something that was supposed to have been solved in September, with the expected increase to classroom learning, versus the pandemic driven remote. Yet, the patchwork of school openings and mask mandate protests, dimmed expectations.

Overall the October labor force participation rate was relatively flat at 61.6 percent with only a slight increase for those aged 25 to 54, peak working years for many. A fact that has heads shaking, but many feel is directly attributable to the virus, and a reluctance, if able to work, fear based decisions, for some, as they work shoulder to shoulder.

Some employers are giving enhanced benefits, transportation allowances, and varied schedules and that has worked well for one hotel in St. Louis, Mo. cited the Times.

This mix and match approach is valued by economists, especially Mary Daly, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, who told the Times, “I, as an economist, predict that will be better for job matches and a better economy in the long run.”

Largely, the problem is still increasing vaccinations among Americans,especially in Republican dominated areas of the South, where vaccination efforts have been politicized, and angry mobs have fought against mask mandates, and vaccination for school personnel, and first responders, and has now spread to Northern cities, such as New York, and Chicago.

Somewhat heartening is the greater rate of vaccination, where approximately 70 percent of the US has received at least one shot, and the subsequent weakening of the virulent Delta Virus strain has given some the impetus to travel and, return in greater numbers to restaurant dining, a fact reflected is the notable increase in food and drinking establishments to 119,000.

Equally concerning is that the Bureau of Economic Analysis  said that the US economy saw growth of only 2.0 percent in the 3rd quarter, noted The Washington Post, in late October: “The coronavirus tore through unvaccinated communities during much of the July-through-September period measured in Thursday’s gross domestic product report, eviscerating economists’ expectations from earlier in the year of continued rapid growth near the 6.3 and 6.7 percent seen in the first two quarters of 2021.”

Recently the Commerce Dept. reported that the economy grew by 0.5 percent, in the same quarter, with both attributing the slowdown to the virus.

What is now abundantly clear, to many, is that resolving the US economy will take time, and patience with increased efforts to gain greater vaccination, above all, but, also further legislative solutions to the country's most pressing problems that have been further delineated, and exposed, as a direct result of the pandemic.

All of this is set against a backdrop of supply chain problems: backorders of parts, whole merchandise, a shortage of workers, and ships sitting at ports, waiting to dock. 

The conundrum is that for many Americans the enforced lockdowns swelled bank accounts, not only with cash unspent, but a round of stimulus checks that many families, facing uncertainty, salted away, and are now spending it. And, they are joined by those at home still clicking away at the goodies on their computer screens. 

Optimism stil reigns and the decrease in the variant is one reason, and also that there was some forethought, with the coming holiday season as some “Businesses were able to build up their inventories — or at least slow the supply-chain bleeding — ahead of the holiday season, despite continued logistical snarls. People may have to be flexible on the exact gifts they pick out for friends and family. But they’ll probably have options.”

September Jobs report numbers sink and stink

September was supposed to be the month that the US economy would see buoyant numbers that would propel it, ballon like, above the landscape of the Covid pandemic, with its doom and gloom, buoyed aloft by August numbers that said to many, that the nation was well on its way to recovery. Instead Friday’s report from the Labor Dept, showed a miserable 194,000 jobs.

This was in direct contradiction of predictors that said there would be 500,000 expected, and as the old song said, “What a Difference a Day Makes”, played out amongst the desks and offices of the nation’s lawmakers, and of course, the White House where President Biden attempted to minimize the loss and press the need for his Build Back Better program, now stick in the chutes of Congress.

There were strong winds which pulled that balloon down, and chiefly of them was the dwindling presence of women in the workforce, who with the push towards in person learning for their children, were expected to return to work in droves. 

That did not happen, and furthermore there was a significant decline in local and state school employment.

Another factor was child care itself, an expensive cost for many families, and especially low income families, saw a  trend across the country where there are “child  care deserts,” noted Julia Coronado, president and founder of Macro Policy Perspectives, in Friday’s interview with NPR: leaving many to rely on relatives and parents, a chain that can be weakened with a last minute phone call.

The crushing need for child care so that mothers can return to work is now hamstrung by a decrease in staff.

WAMU’s program 1A, broadcast by National Public Radio, reported that, “According to the Department of Labor, daycare and other childcare jobs are down 10 percent – that’s a decline of nearly 127,000 since the pandemic started..And in a nation where childcare and paid family leave aren’t guaranteed, it’s having devastating effects.”

For those that remain, its parent clients can expect to pay between $20,000 and $30,000 per year for one to two children, depending on geographic area.

Centers also have higher costs in having trained and educated staff, plus facility design and supplemental equipment.

Some census reports indicate that there was a change in women workers from a midsummer rate of 8 million to a drop to 5 million, once schools reopened for in person learning; but, the state and local depression of bus drivers, workers and even teachers, (dissatisfied with the job and, on average, a 5 year drop out rate) might cast doubt on those numbers.

Furthermore, employees who are leaving service jobs in droves, in search of less demanding work, an effort that was helped in some geographic areas, where the extra financial cushion of extended benefits gave them time to consider how they earned their daily bread; and, for many it was not in the kitchen, baking it.

While there was an increase in leisure and hospitality jobs, for September, to the tune of 74,000, and a slight increase in wages to attract seasoned and entry level workers, it was not as wide as in August, when increased vaccinations gave consumer confidence a boost, but a decrease in food and beverage hires made a dent in this month’s numbers.

Perhaps some workers returning to the office needed new clothes, and retail did show a 56,000 increase with a corresponding increase in accessories with a surge of 27,000. With neckties now in abeyance for most male workers, some have suggested that, for women, scarves and jewelry may be making headwinds, as they save for child care, instead of new outfits.

Then again employers are having a hard time luring office workers back to the expansive, and expensive office spaces, especially in Chicago, New York and Los Angeles, with many having become satisfied (especially those without child care) with remote work; and, even the lure of an office cocktail party is not making them bum rush to downtown.

The residual effects on all of those sandwich shops, sushi bars, and burrito stores, offer less and have less employees to serve what once was a scene out of Ben Hur, with legions running in and out at noon. And, as we have seen above they have faced employee exits; and, this has been clearly established in the fast food industry, as many fear a higher chance of Covid infection, working shoulder to shoulder.

As Bloomberg News reported a year ago, teenagers and the elderly, once part of the “key demographics . . . are staying away for health and safety reasons.”

“This is the most dramatic shift that’s happened in the modern history of food service,” said Aaron Allen, chief strategist at restaurant consultancy Aaron Allen & Associates,” last year; a trend that  has continued into 2021.

For traditional office spaces, some employers are redesigning the space in the hope that they can be made safer with wider, and more, open spaces; and, those seeking to climb the corporate ladder want face time, not screen time. But, that may have changed with many workers, especially women, wanting a hybrid that gives them some of both, and less child care costs.

The Labor Dept.noted that its household survey showed that “In September, 13.2 percent of employed persons teleworked because of the coronavirus pandemic, little changed from the prior month. These data refer to employed persons who teleworked or worked at home  for pay at some point in the last 4 weeks specifically because of the pandemic.”

Of course, the hard reality is that there are still 5 million people out of work since the pandemic began almost two years ago and "It's just a bumpy recovery," says Nela Richardson, chief economist at the payroll processing firm ADP. 

"And it's a recovery that's still linked to the pandemic and the delta variant,” she recently told NPR.

Some good news, at least on the surface, was that the unemployment number dipped to 3.8% from 5.2% in August, but as we have pointed out the banner number, or the marquee number, does not say it all.

Labor Force Participation, or LFP, is still a cause for concern and NPR noted, that "that it does seem that a lot of people who are retirement age are opting out rather than staying in the workforce, which is a big, big change from pre-pandemic, when people worked well into their 60s and well after 65," said Tim Fiore, who conducts a monthly survey of factory managers for the Institute for Supply Management,” but, there are just as many that stay, says Fed Chair Jerome Powell, a spry 68.

"The lore is that people don't come out of retirement," Powell said last week during a congressional hearing. "Except I would say, all during the last few years of the very long expansion that ended with the pandemic, we were constantly surprised to the upside on participation, including older people staying in the workforce longer."

How much was the biggest question, and the report says, “The labor force participation rate was little changed at 61.6 percent in September and has remained within a narrow range of 61.4 percent to 61.7 percent since June 2020.”

Biden touted the substantial decrease of Black unemployment for September, 7.9%, but on closer inspection it was due to Blacks leaving the workforce rather than gaining employment opportunities, and especially in areas dominated by Black service workers, including fast food, domestic work and healthcare workers, and notably those in long term care and nursing homes.

“The improvement in this month’s unemployment rate is misleading given the decline in the participation rate, in particular when you look at Black men and women,” said economist Valerie Wilson, a director at the Economic Policy Institute to CNBC.com.

“I don’t think that is signaling any acceleration or improvement in the pace of recovery at this point,” Wilson added, noting the difficulty of drawing conclusions about labor market trends from month-to-month changes.”.

Some analysts, especially at the TImes, have tried to spin September as not being so bad and citing that the unemployment rate has decreased faster than it did after the Great Recession of the late 2000’s.

“This represents a remarkably speedy recovery in the labor market — attaining sub-5 percent unemployment a mere 17 months after the end of the deepest recession in modern times. By contrast, in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, the jobless rate did not reach 4.8 percent until January 2016, six and a half years after the technical end of that recession”, they said.

One important distinction is the absence of a worldwide pandemic, in 2008, which has killed hundreds of thousands of people across the globe and reduced the American economy to near ashes. 

That is the key difference between the two poles.

Credence must be given to the Labor Dept, when they, without a figurative shrug, said, “Recent employment changes are challenging to interpret, as pandemic-related staffing fluctuations in public and private education have distorted the normal seasonal hiring and layoff patterns.”