Despite the superlatives of President Donald Trump about the virtues of the replacement for Obamacare, there were rumblings and mumblings that millions of Americans would be dumped from their health coverage, and that seniors would face high premiums while younger people would see generous discounts, as the tax credits were switched from income-based to age based. And, that was not the worst of it: the question of cost and how many would lose coverage became dominant speculation.
In a press conference on Monday, White House press secretary, Sean Spicer said that he did not know,but assured those present that they would have the votes to pass the legislation, and that Trump’s “engagement with members” would get them there.
GOP lawmakers have faced intense internal dissension, from those who derisively called it “Obamacare lite,” to those whose worried constituents, especially those from older populations, would face an angry blowback. And, to some observers that was why there was a continuation, in the proposed legislation that retained much of the features of Obamacare, tax credits, to name one, to buy insurance.
Adding to the strain, for Speaker of the House, Paul Ryan, who is the chief architect of the proposal is that 40 members of the House Free Caucus, claim that the votes are not there. Perhaps in a concession to those feelings, Spicer noted, that there was a willingness, on the part of the administration, to listen “to ideas that make this a strong, more patient-centered piece of legislation.”
Extending that even more, he said: “We’re not saying that this is the only way forward,” taking a strong step back from comments made earlier. This comes less than a day after Trump stood firmly behind the plan, and a day after meeting with key House committee chairman. But, then even that was open to revision, as he then said he was open to further negotiations.
Why the back and forth? Candidate Trump could promise a blue moon, and his supporters would cheer in support. But, once behind the desk in the Oval Office, things take on a different cast. This is a truism among nearly all who become president, but not since Roosevelt and the New Dealers has a president been confronted with a myriad of self-wrought promises, but that may prove difficult to deliver, especially in the thorny area of healthcare for Americans.
Speed may prove to be the enemy as working at breakneck speed may give, once again, a less balanced legislation, that could prove embarrassing, if not dangerous. Yet, Greg Walden, R-Ore. Says that “the worst thing we could do is hit the pause button and continue Obamacare.”
That could happen when later on Monday, the Congressional Budget Office, a bipartisan, and independent financial assessor gave the bad news: 14 million Americans would lose their coverage, next year, and by 2026, 52 million, with projected cost savings of $337 billion over 10 years, by cutting Medicaid, and eliminating subsidies, from the Obama plan, including some pre-natal plans.
The Chicago-Sun Times noted, that the report “undercuts a central argument that he and other Republicans have cited for swiftly rolling back former President Barack Obama’s health care overhaul: that the health insurance markets created under the 2010 law are unstable and about to implode. The congressional experts said that largely would not be the case and the market for individual health insurance policies “would probably be stable in most areas either under current law or the (GOP) legislation.”
Summing the loss, “The budget office attributed the projected increases in uninsured Americans to the GOP bill’s elimination of tax penalties for people who don’t buy insurance, its changes in federal subsidies for people who buy policies and its curbing of Medicaid, the federal-state program that helps low-income people buy coverage.”
The GOP lawmakers contend that these figures are out of whack because “coverage statistics are misleading because rising out-of-pocket costs make the policies many gained under Obama’s statute unaffordable.”
If the devil is in the details, then the following scenario is becoming clear: “average premiums for individuals would rise in 2018 and 2019 by 15 percent to 20 percent compared to current law, because Republicans would eliminate the penalties designed to induce people to buy insurance coverage. But beginning in 2020, premiums would begin to fall in comparison to current law, and by 2026 average premiums for people buying individual coverage would be roughly 10 percent lower than current law.
As expected the CBO findings were met with opposition from the White House and the New Department of Health and Human Services, Tom Price who said, “it’s just not believable.” But, Susan Collins of Maine urged her colleagues to slow down and recalibrate. She said, “This is an extremely important debate with significant implications for millions of Americans,” the Republican said. “We need to spend the time necessary to get this right.”
Ironically, as The Guardian reported, “ACA has heated up its popularity hit a historic high in February, according to findings from the Pew Research Center and the latest Kaiser Health Tracking poll. The result is the highest level of support for the law in the 60 tracking polls Kaiser Health has conducted since 2010.”
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