The September Jobs Report offered little to surprise those that expected a job loss due to hurricanes, Maria, Harvey and Irma, but what has given many observers hope is that wages which inched up a bit, may offer more to U.S. paychecks, than has been seen before, to boost the buying power of Americans as they face increasing costs for basic fixed expenses. And, retailers are hoping that the upcoming holiday season, may show a boost, even with online shopping reaching a zenith.
Attributable to the storms, in Florida and Texas, especially, was a 33 percent job loss, mostly in the leisure and hospitality business; but with a steady unemployment rate of 4.2 percent, giving a temporary upset to 83 months of steady job gains.
Mark Hamrick, Bankrate.com senior economic analyst, said “The Wizard of Oz” comes to mind when examining the latest report, specifically the “pay no attention to the man behind the curtain” line,” and also that “Because of the impacts from hurricanes and flooding, the decline reported in September payrolls doesn’t carry weight this time around,” reported The Hill.
If hope springs eternal, then the average hourly growth in wages, of 0.45 percent, with a year on year increase of 2.9 percent, from 2.5 percent, is it. Yet, median wages are still far below those in 2000. But, some economists say that the 0.5 percent increase may stick.
As the Bureau of Labor and Statistics Report noted: “Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (3.9 percent) and Blacks (7.0 percent) declined in September, but this to could be attributable to the storms.
Labor participation is still low, mostly attributable to baby boomer retirement, and those with disabilities, which prevent them from working; but as in prior months employers on the high end, especially in technical fields feel the pinch due to a loss of qualified workers, while those at the lower end are luring job seekers with incentives. The drawback is that these offer, few, if any, benefits, making them less attractive to those seeking full-time employment, with at least some benefits.
Many millennials are staying in school to get more skills rather than enter into a risky job market, say some market professionals. But, what is worrisome to many, is that those in their peak working years from 25 to 45 years old are not participating. And, nowhere is this more true than for those whose education ended with a high school diploma.
Meanwhile the Feds are seeing an economy that is still heating up, as inflation lurks in the background (preferably at the much sought after 2 percent rate) and comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen suggest that there may be a December interest rate hike.
To lure those, on the lower end some employers like retail giant Target are offering increases to $11.00 an hour, often topping minimum wage, in certain markets. And, others are offering paid internship as apprenticeships to lure workers, and even referral bonuses to employees that refer friends.
Of major importance are big box retailers, looking to increase sales staff at the holidays, and are willing to offer higher wages, 20 to 40 percent higher, in some cases, to cover the peak holiday season which is less than 90 days away; such as Amazon which will offer $12.00 to $16.00 an hour for temporary help.
Just behind Amazon is Radial an e-commerce company, that has plans to bump its payroll, this holiday season, in all 25 of its warehouses, “We’re hiring 35 percent, or 7,000 more people than we did last year,” says Stefan Weitz, executive corporate vice-president for technical services. But, again these are on the lower pay scale, providing only temporary relief to rank and file workers.
There is some variance in the numbers from the household survey, especially those from employer reports, with the former stating that there have been 906,000 last month, pushing down the jobless rate to the lowest level seen since February 2001.
Caution should be exerted since this is done with employed people, and not from total job figures, and covers those who would not be seen on national payrolls, such as the self-employed.
While the Great Recession is over, the U.S. economy is still seeking a rebound to pre-recession levels, and while there has been significant growth in the jobs market, it is hamstrung by low end job, mostly part-time, or temporary positions. And, with high end, or technical, employers still seeking skilled professionals, the results are mixed at best, as has been the case much of this year.
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