Midterm home stretch: the GOP, voters, and key races

The last of a two-part series that look at NAFTA, tariffs, voters, and the latest polls, and other issues ahead of tomorrow's election day.

Tomorrow, Tuesday, is election day where no matter if you are red, or blue, it’s the time where the rubber meets the road, and where the GOP is pinning its hopes on winning to keep both houses firmly under control - yet, some are saying, even President Trump, has all but conceded the House to the Democrats. But, not resting easy, the Dems are rallying the vote and former President Obama, had gone hoarse last night, stirring the faithful to the polls tomorrow.

As we have seen, the Republicans are saying that America has truly become the better place, restored to glory after the defeat of Hillary, the baseness of Barack and the perils of Pelosi ---- and this is base politics at supreme.

The president, perhaps in a hope to keep his campaign promise tried, like heck to renegotiate NAFTA to protect the American working class, or so he said, but a closer look revealed more of a rebranding than a negotiation.

As usual, he touted it as the BIGGEST, the BEST and much like a carnival barker of old, one had the sense that he was selling snake oil, say some.

“The president touted the new pact — the "U.S., Mexico, Canada agreement, called USMCA" — as keeping a campaign promise to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement, which he had long described as perhaps the worst deal ever made,” reported CBS News in their coverage, and included some of the following fact checks:

“TRUMP: "This deal will also impose new standards requiring at least 75 percent of every automobile to be made in North America in order to qualify for the privilege of free access to our markets."

THE FACTS: That's true. But as with any such requirement, it could make autos more expensive by discouraging the use of cheaper components from overseas. The same could be true of another provision, requiring at least 40 percent of a car's content to be built where workers earn $16 an hour. The new United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement indeed contains greater worker protections, a tradeoff that could mean higher costs.

The pact, if approved by Congress, will raise the percentage of a car's content that must be built within the trade bloc to 75 percent from 62.5 percent if it is to qualify for duty-free status.”

And, not to be outdone:

“TRUMP, on overcoming the major hitch with Canada: "Dairy was a deal-breaker. And now for our farmers it's, as you know, substantially opened up much more. And I know they can't open it completely. They have farmers also. You know, they can't be overrun. And I fully — and I tell them that. I say, 'Look, I understand you have limits.' But they could do much better."

THE FACTS: That's a fair reading of one of the agreement's most significant changes — though dairy only accounts for about 0.1 percent of U.S.-Canada trade. Canada's tariffs on dairy imports can approach 300 percent. U.S. dairy farmers have also complained about Canadian policies that priced the U.S. out of the market for some dairy powders and allowed Canada to flood world markets with its own versions.

The new agreement would end the discriminatory pricing and restrict Canadian exports of dairy powders. Still, it's in some respects an incremental advance from the Pacific deal that Trump walked away from. It would expand U.S. access to up to 3.75 percent of the Canadian dairy market, versus 3.25 percent in the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Above that level, U.S. dairy farmers will still face Canada's punishing tariffs.”

In the exchange of words, we almost lost the respect of an old and valued ally, Canada, and the president said that the Canadian finance minister “hates America,” all of which chips away at the alliance for a name change and as one wag put it, “a few gallons of milk.”

The biggest issue for the GOP and the president is immigration, both legal and illegal as he began in 2015, accusing Mexico of sending rapists and murderers to the U.S. and now this has been extended to Central Americans fleeing poverty and violence, but both the optics and the rhetoric fit the bill, right down to his remark, that if the crowd threw rocks at Mexican border guards, then that “might as well be a gun” and that Americans would return in kind.

Coming on the heels of the separation of children from parents, regrettable but not avoidable, say some, that level of condemnation has died down, and Trump discusses putting some of them in tents, as he has done with the children.

Last week’s announcement to repeal, by executive order, (doubtful say most constitutional experts) to repeal birthright citizenship is to stem the tide of what immigration opponents deem a scam. In true fashion, the president said that the US was the only country to do so, but, in fact, there are 30 countries that do so.

In a rally in South Central Illinois, this past week, the crowds roared at these words.

Economics at play

The White House has touted economic gain, as a result of their economic policies, yet the Tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum - ironic since as Clinton noted during the debates that much of his hotels and resorts were built with Chinese steel.

“The only countries which remain exempted from the steel and aluminum tariffs are Australia and Argentina. Separately, on July 6, the Trump administration set a tariff of 25% on 800 categories of goods imported from China worth $50 billion,” noted the popular online source, Wikipedia

The result announced on Monday was that “China’s retaliatory tariffs on U.S. exports are starting to be felt in hundreds of cities with more than 8,000 requests across the country for tariff exemptions. That’s causing some toss-up state Democrats to appeal to those businesses hardest hit by the trade war. The notion is they will somehow fight harder for exemptions,” noted Forbes, and who also said that while not high on voters minds, those Dems in swing states such as Indiana, it might be a dark horse issue to gain even more votes for the Democrats.

Gender and LGBT rights

For the LGBT community Trump’s desire to define gender by the gender at birth, seems, at first blush directed only at transgender people, but is really a trial balloon, to see how far he can go with earmarking other laws, such as the legalization of same-sex marriage.

Young voters

One group galvanized by the Parkland School shootings are young people, those defined as between 18 and 24, and they are, while traditionally less enthused by non-presidential voting are gearing up for an increase.

According to a recent poll by the Harvard Institute of Politics, “Americans under age 30 are 54 percent more likely to vote than they were in our 2014 midterm polling. Forty percent tell us they will vote in the midterms next week. While young voters generally overestimate their actual rate of participation by 7.5 points on average, by almost every measure, we are likely to witness an election for the ages. Compared with 2014, engagement from young Democrats is 24 percentage points higher (30 percent likely to vote in 2014 compared to 54 percent today), and Republicans are quickly closing the gap as they try to match that intensity. Six months ago, 36 percent of Republicans expected to vote, and in the weeks after the hearings to confirm Brett M. Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court, that percentage increased to 43 percent.”

White college educated women, on the left, are predicted to vote 25 percent more than they have in the past, adding even further excitement to this election.

Voting rights and voter suppression

Of deep concern are voting rights, and especially, in Georgia, where in a key race between Stacey Abrams and Brian Kemp who also happens to be the Secretary of State, that author Ari Berman called the epicenter of voter suppression, where 1.50 million voters have been purged their roles based on lack of a matched signature -- to other state databases, often as much by a hyphen, or Harry versus Henry, or Al versus Alexander, cutbacks on early voting; often affecting 70 percent of racial minorities, and ethnic minorities, that are often people of color and poll workers who do not understand some surnames.

Confusion reigned where there was a letter sent saying that there was a pending application, but confused those who received it thinking that they could not vote, but they could, at the polling station with proper identification.

We reported earlier about voting rights for those convicted of felonies, here is a recap:

Allowing those that have been previously incarcerated is another sea change affecting the midterms, and this time from those who normally would be denied the right to vote, or would they?

The New York Times recently examined this area of opportunity for the Democrats, which few have thought, about and looked at this scenario: ”If a person is convicted of first-degree murder in the state of Vermont, he or she will retain the right to vote — even while incarcerated. But a person who commits perjury in Mississippi could be permanently barred from casting a ballot there.”

“It is up to states — not the federal government — to say whether convicted felons can vote, and which ones, and when. So the rules for convicted criminals can change, sometimes drastically, from one state to the next.

In the end, elections are about numbers, and numbers of voters, which the Dems need, and which black candidates need, such as Abrams, need, and the chipping of these rights make tomorrow even more of a nail baiter.

Here is a sampling of just a few Key races to watch, for their numbers, among others, are Arizona, a Senate seat held by conservatives by Barry Goldwater and John McCain, is now between “Republican Martha McSally has been pushed to the right and faces a tough race against Democrat Kyrsten Sinema in a state with a growing Latino population,” noted the Guardian.

The 14th House district in Illinois is between Republican Randy Hultgren that holds “Chicago’s sprawling outer suburbs. His challenger Lauren Underwood is a much-touted Democratic recruit who is hoping to pull off an upset against the incumbent in a Republican leaning district that Trump won by 4,” they reported.

Getting a lot of ink is Texas where “Three-term congressman Beto O’Rourke has captured national attention with his challenge to incumbent Ted Cruz. The Texas Democrat still faces an uphill battle in a Republican state where incumbent governor Greg Abbott has an overflowing warchest and no real competition. However, even a close loss would mark O’Rourke as a national figure”, noted the Guardian.

Finally, and most importantly, remember to VOTE, if you have not done so by early voting.