On Friday, just in time for Easter, a gift arrived, but not a flurry of eggs from the Bunny, instead a fresh batch of nonfarm jobs from the US Labor Dept. March jobs report, providing enough nonfarm jobs to ensure that eggs can be a staple on American breakfast tables, with 916,000 new jobs, far exceeding conservative predictions of 650,000.
This gives credence to an economic recovery wrecked from the Covid pandemic which resulted in shuttered business across the country, and that seemed impossible to stop,, especially taking its toll on service workers, and their families, especially those employed in leisure and hospitality, and the accompanying food and beverage industry, threatening millions of people with eviction, and even starvation, as long lines appeared at local food banks.
The March report, accompanied by the American Rescue Pan, passed by the Biden administration, with $1400 stimulus checks, is now giving support to a level of recovery albeit while still holding 8.5 million less jobs, can create hope for the victims of the pandemic.
The unemployment rate ticked down from 6.2% to 6.0 percent and the news was celebrated by the White House, where Secretary of Labor Marty Walsh was present at Friday’s press conference where he noted, “That’s certainly good news for over 900,000 working men and families in this country. We saw significant job growth in most sectors of our economy. And it’s clear that the National Vaccine Program is not only saving lives, but it’s enabling more people to get back to work.”
A sizable chunk of those 916,000 jobs were from leisure and hospitality to the tune of 280,000, with an increase from its cousin, food and beverage with 176,000. And, not far behind, according to The Hill, was “entertainment and recreation [that] added 64,000 jobs and accommodation added 40,000.”
Furthermore, giving added scores, despite the debates on school reopening, of those that did open, contributed 190,000 jobs to the good news.
Reaction to the report was mixed, but most felt that, “We fully expect that the pace of job gains will continue for months, and anticipating that the unemployment rate, now at 6 percent will be well below 5 percent by the end of the year,” wrote Mike Fratantoni, chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association, in a Friday analysis,” according to The Hill.
Unfortunately, the racial gap continues with Black and Brown workers lagging still far behind with 9.6 % and 7.9% respectively, compared to the 5.4 percent for whites.
For most economists, and sociologists, this gap will have to be closed by significant investments in minority communities, something that has begun in earnest in cities like Chicago, but has not been replicated in other areas, principally other center cities, and Nicole Goldin, a non senior resident fellow at the Atlantic Council, noted to The Hill, “The extent to which the rebound is more inclusive will depend on how eventual legislation prioritizes investments. . .”.
While the general unemployment rate did trickle down to 6.0%, the household rate, or the U6, was 6.9 percent, showing that an overall return to the 3.5 percent of pre pandemic times remains the baseline.
Other economists feel that while March showed good signs, there was still room for a cautious stance, including Daniel Zhao, senior economist of the career site Glassdoor, who told The New York Times, “March’s jobs report is the most optimistic report since the pandemic began,” but, “it's not the largest gain in payrolls since the pandemic began, but it’s the first where it seems like the finish line is in sight.”
For those workers with less education, gains are also seen, and The Wall Street Journal reported “those with less than high school diploma fell to 8.2% last month from 10.1 % in February. The caveat with this group was “the return of some lower skilled workers likely helped push down average hourly wages of 4 cents to $29.96,” they added.
In contrast the US economy lost 1.7 million jobs in March 2020, with a peak loss of 20 million in April, according to the Times. But, added to the good news is the caveat that the virus still remains a risk with covid cases surging, “as states have begun easing restrictions,” and the threat of a surge could force some states to backpedal.”
There is some assurance that this will not be a return from winter restrictions, because as Julia Pollack, a labor economist at the job site ZipRecruiter, who said to the Times, said, “this time is different, and that’s because of vaccines.”
Summing it up were a group of economists polled by the Journal who felt that employers will add an average “of 514,000 jobs each month over the next year, for a total of more than six million,” but despite the acceleration would “leave overall employment totals below where they stood before the pandemic.
No comments:
Post a Comment