Post midterm: Can GOP reign without Trump

American voters woke on Tuesday to see which party would govern Congress, only to learn that the final results were unsettled, with vote counting to continue for days or weeks. One thing is uncertain: the much ballyhooed Red revival failed to materialize, and while the Democrats breathed a sigh of relief, for better returns than they thought, Republicans were furious as few of former President Trump’s favored candidates had significant gains.

While some wags have called this the thin pink line, others have noted that the country may have decided they wanted a balance of opinion for the ruling party, yet while we wait for the final tally, to see if the GOP can win the House, and/or the Senate, it’s also possible that the House could remain in the hands of the Democrats and retain Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House.

One issue seems to have defined voters to give the Dems the home field advantage and that is abortion, and women’s reproductive rights, that a majority of Americans favor abortion with some restrictions, at 60 percent according to Pew Research. And, while there were some Democrats, Bernie Sanders included, who felt that it might have not been enough, in the end it did prove to be enough.

Voters in Republican leaning Kentucky overturned an anti abortion amendment, one of the most restrictive in the country; and in MIchigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, ruling over a now Democratic controlled state legislature, won, in part as a champion of abortion rights, noted The Washington Post, and lastly in North Carolina where restrictions are now banned, in what was thought to be a veto proof majority.

Another surprise is that the ferocity of the MAGA crowd, and its doom and gloom scenario of militant teachers, marching lockstep with transgender and LGBT people, coupled with soft on crime Democrats, did not produce the desired push for that alleged Red wave.

The best case scenario, for the GOP, if they win a narrow victory in the House, is that the Biden administration might be able to have more legislative wins, while the more radical GOP, especially people like Marjorie Taylor Green might bear down on their Speaker of the House who will bear the brunt of their anger and force, currently favored to be Kevin McCarthy, and while he has worked the phones, is not an automatic choice, needing 215 votes from House lawmaker votes.

Some are saying that the sharp elbowed Jim Jordan might be the better choice, but in a contest of wills, it's all over but the fighting.

While Trump has been seen by many supporters as the head of the Republican party with his outsized influence, some observers are beginning to wonder if he has lost the Midas touch as both his candidates and his lie about winning the 2020 election seem to be fading, at least for now, as the deciding factor, but as we see, that does not mean it isn’t winning, for some.

While Trump says that he might run again, Scott Jennings, a Republican strategist told The Hill on Wednesday, “How can you look at these results tonight and conclude Trump has any chance of winning a national election in 2024?”

Nipping at his heels as a 2024 candidate is the victorious Florida Gov. Ron De Santis whose sweep over contender Charlie Christ, is already legend, and while predicted, there are some GOP supporters who see him as a more viable presidential candidate for 2024, one that carries less baggage than Trump with his cringe inducing moments, grinning in concert with Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin, his anti Asian labels of Covid as the Asian Flu, and his casting away of former supporters such as Jeff Sessions, or his litany of alleged violations of his financial empire, that seems to have been built on sand.

On the technical side it seems that mail in voting has reached a zenith and while extending the counts also seems to suggest that fraud is elusive, and with that, the absence of potential violence at the polls, gave a measure of safety to the electorate, and as President Biden noted, “without much interference at all. . .”

There were some election deniers who “tried to to undermine this election before polls even closes, seizing on problems with vote counting machines in Arizona and a likely delay in Pennsylvania to spin viral theories of vote manipulation” led by Trump who claimed that the election, was being stolen yet again from the Republicans, noted Rosalind S. Helderman of The New York Times.

While this was true, it has not been without support, as we heard over lunch, when two old duffers loudly proclaimed that the “Democrats stole the election from Trump,” before stomping out of the diner.

The durability of this lie has taken hold in the newly elected Congress, and among them are members of the House, Senate, governors, secretaries of state and attorney generals, nearly a thirds, so far, according to The New York Times analysis, but there has also been a significant number of election deniers that were not elected.

This seems to be a force majeure, in the GOP playbook, despite the fact that there has been no credible evidence that the 2020 election was fraudulent, but perhaps this statement of durability, says it all from Russell Fry, a Congressman from South Carolina, who said that it was “clear that it was rigged.”

One aspect of this election is that the absence of old fashioned retail politics with door to door visits seems in the abeyance and when it was done, it worked well, when it was not, candidates lost.

An emerging trend is ranked voting to support a closer support of a candidate and to avoid rancor on the part of some voters and while it was previously seen in the New York City mayoral race, it is now spreading to other state elections and Nevada is using it in the midterms

Simply put it asks voters to rank order their choice of candidates and avoids a run off, because it is an inherent part of the process, and allows for less rancor and as an advocate has said, it gives more room for voter principles.

With rancor being on the front line in this politically divided country, depending on Nevada, and in the past, Alaska, spreading further to midterms might be a positive direction.

This might have helped Tom Ryan advance over JD Vance in the ever so tight Ohio race, where Vance came in as a darkhorse and emerged a victor in a game changer from an Ivy League educated brahmin to a flannel clad good ole boy, writ large.

One gain for Democrats is the number of Black officials across the state and federal slate: Wes Moore as governor of Maryland, joined by the first Black attorney general, Anthony Brown, and Summer Lee as the first Black Congresswoman for Pennsylvania.

For the LGBT community wins are also historic wins for the Dems: Beca Blunt to Congress from Vermont, Erick Russell as treasurer for Connecticut, who is not only gay, but Black, a first in the United States.

Erick Russell

All of this, of course, is background to the larger story of who will control Congress, and as of this writing, with Georgia as a runoff, Arizona and Nevada remain as the races to watch for in the Senate, and for the House: New York, Maryland, California, Colorado, Oregon, Nevada,and Alaska. With leads on both sides of the aisle in some districts.

Let the nail biting continue.