When Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker announced that he was going to run for a third term as Illinois governor, local tongues began to wag, and ponder, was he giving up presidential ambitions, or was he using this as a time to solidify his national reputation, after a series of appearances, and blunt criticism of Donald Trump, who in turn, has openly criticized him, and calling him names.
Pulling back from the optics, and the rhetoric, with the Democrats sidelined by the juggernaut of the second Trump administration, it’s going to be tough sledding for them as they attempt to make a comeback, and while it’s been done before after being in the weeds, notably with the election of Bill Clinton; but, they have faced an onslaught of bad publicity, which was ratcheted up when Joe Biden stepped aside, and Vice President Kamala Harris stepped up from the bench, to keep the presidency in Democratic hands.
As we once noted about the failed campaign of Hillary Clinton, the book has not been written on that loss, but we did offer a post mortem, of sorts, shortly after her defeat, it’s now safe to say that Trump won in no small measure by appealing to many of the fears and cultural concerns about Brown and Black people, immigrants, and especially trans people.
In short, the Democrats have a bad reputation, with the reality of Trump’s command of the culture wars in America; and, while some conservative positions had gone underground after the Reagan years, only to reemerge decades later, Trump brought them forward in a defense of traditional values, and pilloried attempts, starting with the bathroom wars, by others to support these populations.
The great American culture figure, Will Rogers, once famously said: “I belong to no organized party; I am a Democrat.” Aphorisms aside, that may be the central question. What do they stand for? Who can they appeal to?
Framing those questions has become the $64,000 question, and Pritzker raising his national profile, stating pride in defending diversity, affording equality in education, and gender diversity might not win him points with the right, or even the extreme left, but, entering the fray in the city that defines much of urban America, comes Zohran Mamdani who beat out disgraced former New York Governor Mario Cuomo, in the recent city primary, And, in a city like New York, the shock was akin to the election of American Bishop Robert Prevost to the papacy of the Roman Catholic Church.
All roads might have once led to Rome but can the tables be turned to allow a 33 year old Ugandan born Indian with an unwieldy name to take on the most embattled and diverse of American cities, Chicago excepting? And, also one that has previously eaten and spit out lesser mortals as they attempt governance.
Two parts of his plank that have warmed the hearts of New Yorkers are the “bread and butter” issues of historically high rents, groceries, and fears of subway crimes, to mention just a few. The response has been overwhelming, and it’s also notable for the absence of hot button cultural issues, perhaps echoing Abraham Lincoln’s famous words of a house divided cannot stand.
One significant factor is Mamdani’s attraction for younger voters, and as NY Mag reported a Marist poll gave Mamdani a 34 point lead, “among voters under 45”. Coupled with a younger turnout, “voters 25 to 34 have been the largest share of early voters among any age cohort, making up one quarter of the early vote with voters under 45 comprising almost half the early vote.”
If retail politics rule the day, then Mamdani walking from one end of Manhattan to the other, video crew in hand, before the Friday primary election, while his much older opponent, Cuomo, was reticent to reveal his schedule, speaks volumes to a new day dawning for a younger, physically abled candidate which has not been seen in the last three presidential elections cycles; and, while this is a presidential election, it does give a sharper edge to how a Democratic candidate might perform on the national stage.
What might be held against him is the label of Democratic Socialist which might need clarification for some voters, especially if elected and a crop of similarly identified voters are also running for office; but, then again, we've seen this before nationally, with the run of Bernie Sanders, and his socialist tag that joined a debate about who was more progressive, a battle never won.
Then in 2019, there was a presage of sorts with mayoral elections in Chicago, that prompted The Economist to note the upswing in aldermanic races with a surge of Socialist Democrats to state, “Looking past the label, however American socialists are more progressive Democrats rather than Castros in waiting, and their rise poses more of a challenge to the Democratic Party than to capitalism.”
We may see that again, and already with the anti immigration efforts from Trump, he has already, along with others, been talking about Mamdani’s status as a naturalized citizen, and either deporting him, or denaturalizing him, a lengthy process that could rattle his primacy.
Up for grabs, in any local, or national election is the Black vote, something that has factored into the success of any Democratic president since the 1960s, and in the last presidential election played a role in Trump’s victory where more Black men, younger, voted for him giving him a decisive edge.
If we take a look at Mamdani and his voters we see that, early as it is, “young Black voters appear to have gone decisively for him in the NYC primary. According to one primary exit poll (with a small sample size), about 70 percent of Black voters under 50 voted for Mamdani citywide,” according to The Intercept.
For a national candidate, the focus on bread and butter issues can take a sharp turn towards success. but despite accusations of taking the Black vote for granted, the future for Democrats may have to take a turn from traditional transactional strategies to recognizing that Black communities are not monolithic.
It’s apparent that for voters youth matters, and while younger Black voters are turning out for Mamdani, there is also a surge within Democratic circles for Patrick Roath, a young 38 year old candidate vying to win a House seat from incumbent Stephen Lynch, 70, who some voters feel is not only youthful enough, but not as progressive as they need, or desire, as a force against Trump.
Roath, much like Mamdani, is pushing hard for those same “bread and butter” issues that he feels are most important for voters in Massachusetts, such as affordable housing access to jobs. but also to return and redefine the issues for Democrats, admittedly no small feat, in and of itself.
While some may see this as a way to regain the ground lost in 2024, a return to party roots, Rogers infamous quote aside, may have some traction, especially in the midterms next year, and especially as the president is coming under close scrutiny for his alleged involvement with pedophile Jeffrey Epstein, a story that seems to have legs, to use the old newspaperman jargon.
That aside, considering Roath as an example, there may be some good old fashioned youthful New Frontier “vigah” for his campaign, than establishment stalwarts such as Pritzker.
Part and parcel of Roath’s energy comes also from his moral outrage of the Trump detentions, and deportations, of undocumented immigrants, as the administration attempts to meet a goal of 3,000 deportations each day.
When we take a look at the high cost of housing, especially on the East Coast as well as across the nation, voters may wonder why this is not a priority of the president. Then add healthcare, or more specifically, the potential loss of 11 million Medicaid recipients from “The Big Beautiful Bill” passed by Congress, then the die may be cast for a path forward.
Still there is some pushback against youth as a factor, and in an interview with WBUR, Bill Curry, a former member of the Clinton administration and Democratic veteran, seemed wary of a “bright and shiny” new candidate, and wants to stress past Democratic legislation, and achievements.
He said that there needs to be more than youth, but instead a return “specific asks” citing past successes such as Civil Rights, for Black Americans, backlash to the Watergate scandal, to jump start the push back against Trump.
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