On the consumer side, gasoline, especially for America, the major focus is on the cost of crude oil which as a consequence of the war which on Monday surged to over $100 per barrel creating even more uncertainty than possible rate cuts; and, the residual effects on energy, and food supplies, not to mention its transportation are now overshadowing the February job losses.
The stock market indices were lowered, and then rose on Monday and then lowered again, giving some hope to investors, but with no predictable end in sight of the war despite reports to the contrary from the White House and the Defense Dept. who are predicting a short duration, despite a heightened level of uncertainty from many quarters.
The February highlights included a decrease in what seemed to be the iron clad area of health care now taking a dip to 28,000 after a peak of 77,000 in January shattering some who believed it to be a new standard for job seekers.
“Offices of physicians lost 37,000 jobs in February, primarily due to strike
activity. Hospitals added 12,000 jobs. Over the prior 12 months, health care had added an average of 36,000 jobs per month,” reported the Bureau of Labor and Statistics.
The nurses strike in New York was emblematic of the dangers of reliance, or over reliance, on one industry, despite the pressing needs of American baby boomers. Andrew Flowers, chief economist at Appcast, said in a statement. But even accounting for that, job declines are still present, and he noted. “When labor market growth depends on a sole industry, we will inevitably end up with large swings like today,” Flowers said.
Social assistance driven by individual and family needs has increased to 9,000, with a concentration of over 12,000 for the aforementioned population, and while the report does not give detail on who is receiving what type of services, it is believed to have come from those facing a decrease in such social program cuts and work requirements for those receiving food assistance from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, and some Medicaid cuts.
While the unemployment rate, what we prefer to call the marquee rate, nudged up slightly to 4.4 percent, inflation has increased to 2.4 percent, (still over the Federal Reserve target range of 2 percent) and wages while holding steady for higher income earners at $37.82,an increase of 0.4 percent; and while wages are up for some for others they are not for many American working families (especially those without college degrees) covering the high cost of a dwindling supply of affordable housing is a great challenge.
Wholesale inflation in January climbed to 0,5 percent with the producer price index reported by the Labor Dept. in late February, driving year over year prices from December, and in January 3.6 percent, both higher than forecasted, according to The Associated Press. Key to that were the tariffs from the president, and while many retailers and wholesalers stockpiled products before they were put in place, there were still some passed onto consumers.
With groceries still higher than consumers want and the threat of increased prices due to the war, it’s important to note that gasoline and energy can account for 70 percent of the costs. The threat of heightened oil exports have to travel through the Strait of Hormuz, and Iranian government threats to bomb any oil bearing cargo ships using that route are panicking wholesalers despite a statement on Tuesday by an American official that a ship was recently escorted through the straits; but, that statement was later retracted causing even more concerns in global markets.
"In February, average hourly earnings for all employees on private non farm payrolls rose by 15 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $37.32. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.8 percent. In February, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 9 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $32.03."
That may not be the total picture, however and “Wage growth remained healthy, at 3.8 percent over the year. Average hourly earnings have been slowing very gradually, but remain relatively steady, suggesting that hiring is not being constrained solely by the supply of available workers,” noted The New York Times.
Looking back at year over year statistics and seeing the loss of up to 317,000 federal job losses in 2025, and for 2026, “213,000 to 260,000+ federal employees left the workforce through various voluntary and involuntary mechanisms,” according to web searches.
The Joint Economic Committee Report from Congress reported that, “Revised numbers from December show 65,000 fewer jobs from a gain of 45,000 to end with a loss of 17,000 jobs. January’s report revised down by 4,000 from a gain of 130,000 to end at 126,000. Taken together, employment in December and January was down 69,000 more than previously reported.”
Revisions for previous months are standard operating procedure for the Labor Dept, and caution should always be taken to avoid making large judgements on the basis of one month’s report; but, taking into consideration the politics of economics and President Trump’s falling poll number on his handling of the economy, plus the war, there is greater overall concern from many quarters on what the American economic outlook will look like in future months.
Looking at the nervousness among many observers, lawmakers and investors, looking at overall statistics and patterns, and the revisions, the Times reported: “Revisions to previous months bolstered the case that the job losses in February were consistent with a broader trend rather than a blip. Employers shed 17,000 in December, and hiring figures for January were also revised downward slightly. Taken together, job growth for the last three months effectively slowed to zero.”
When it comes to the labor pool, the decrease in immigration, commingled with the Trump administration crackdowns on immigrant labor, we are also seeing “slower growth in the supply of labor. That has made it difficult to determine if a slowdown in job growth is caused by decreasing demand for workers, fewer available job-seekers or a combination of both,” added the Times.
All in all the general view, the war excepted, reaction has been alarming, “Today’s jobs report was overwhelmingly disappointing — there’s no other way to say it,” Cory Stahle, economist for Indeed Hiring Lab, said in a statement, and reported by truckingdive.com who also added as others have observed, “Today’s data show that the labor market has averaged essentially zero net job creation over the past six months,” Stahle continued. “This is concerning because when an economy stops creating jobs, it’s often not long before it starts losing them.”
Reaction from the White House has been positive and has expressed optimism, with this stance: “I think it’s consistent with everything else we’re seeing, which is the economy is really strong,” Kevin Hassett, the director of the White House National Economic Council, maintained in an appearance on CNBC.
With gasoline prices surging as of Tuesday to $3.50 cents per gallon, the president and his administration are facing a tough call, and with no clear objective of the war, critics are expressing concern, even among his own party, and while defections, Marjorie Taylor Greene excepting, are not happening yet, at least, but it’s anyone’s guess what the immediate economic future will bring, but in a recent poll by PBS/NPR/Marist 56 percent of those polled oppose the war against Iran giving some indication of public sentiment.
In earlier reportage, “[But] Mr. Trump and his top aides largely shrugged off higher gas prices all week, describing the increase as just another temporary blip.
“So, if we have a little high oil prices for a little while,” the president said at one point, “as soon as this ends, those prices are going to drop.”
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