COVID-19 equals economic and cultural endemic for U.S.

The COVID-19 pandemic reached the United States with a roar, and despite some earlier claims that it might not come to the country by optimists and if it did, would be well under control have dissipated in a cloud of fear and uncertainty, and the country has begun a series of commercial shut downs that have not only isolated some Americans but also led to a vast sense of panic, fear, hoarding, and an exacerbation of cultural and racial fears, exposing perhaps more than ever some of the inequalities in American society, and affected steady if not spectacular job gains.

President Trump’s early statements were positive and reassuring, but quickly devolved into a series of questionable statements that made many anxious, as if he was dismissing the threat to Americans, and some observers, and critics, said that this was done, in order to preserve his major reelection plank: that the economy was strong stable and secure; one that sent the White House to reevaluate the threat,

The optics at a press conference on Friday raised more questions than answers and the subsequent glad-handing, and sight of lawmakers, and medical officials shaking hands, and touching microphones belied whatever good intentions that the media was expecting, not to mention the American public.

While that might have increased the political divide between Republicans and Democrats, the resulting fallout seemed to have made matters worse with local and state officials asking the federal government for assistance, be it for more hospitals, or protective equipment.

Not having FEMA taking the lead also led to stock market worries and the closings of restaurants, museums, and some workplaces has led to economic fears, and conspiracy theories have abounded about the source, and some have said that the virus itself was planted by Trump.

Frustration was evident, weeks ago, when Sen. John Kennedy of Louisiana asked the acting head of Homeland Security Chad Wolfe, “How many people are expected to be affected, and said, in exasperation, “I’m all for committees and task forces but you're the secretary, I think you ought to know the answer.”

In the face of curfews, school closings and demands for public libraries to close, the earlier statement of Health and Human Services secretary, Alex Azar, “We cannot hermetically seal off the United States to a virus,” rang true for many.

Trump did not help matters by saying on a state trip to India that the virus “is very well under control in our country.”

World Health Organization’s Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said that he was alarmed by the level of inaction, but most importantly, “We have never before seen a pandemic sparked by a coronavirus,” reported The Wall Street Journal.

Globally, the hodgepodge of efforts has spread the fear factor to the U.S., although China’s efforts has been rewarded, after being the source and once epicenter, with a declaration of victory with their efforts at reduction, of less than 30 new infections, as of Wednesday.

Now the U.S. has been brought to a standstill in many urban areas and farfetched statements have been made: some African Americans were overheard, misquoting a popular television preacher, saying that the virus is retribution for the sins of American slavery and racism.

Still others have said that popular novelist Dean Koontz had predicted this outbreak in a book, and taking events even further, in a demonstrated a “blithe disregard” (a term coined by The New York Times) for the realities of others, as witnessed by a young white millennial stating, at a local Chicago branch library, “everyone should just work from home.” 

When reminded that not everyone could do that, especially those in service jobs and in rural areas, he airily suggested, “then we will stay at home, so they can work.”

Meanwhile suggestions have flown like arrows throughout the country with some like Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker suggested, in a Tweet, that the federal government needed to get its act together although he substituted a popular slang term.

The role of the Army Corps of Engineers has been questioned along with that of the Defense Department and Navy hospitals yet that in, and of itself, is in question, that not having received specific orders, their role and skills have been seen only in the theater of war, and not in a national medical crisis.

Adding fuel to the fire is the rumor that a leaked memo from the Center for Disease Control said that the situation could last as long as 18 months.

The New York Times reported on Wednesday that there were suggestions that Navy medical ships should be harbored on the Hudson River to receive the sick, or house non-infected patients from area hospitals.

Neither of which has been confirmed. And, a proposed shipment of 2,000 ventilators for a hospital was deemed inadequate.

Compounding these efforts is that public health in America is the responsibilities of the states and local governments, a fact little known to the general public.

The greatest threat is, of course, the American economy that while showing steady job growth, even without corresponding wages, is now predicted to be on a downward slide with the possible loss of millions of jobs with “layoffs, lost wages . . .and the threat of the business cycle,” reported the Los Angeles Times.

Hard hits have been taken by the world of professional sports who thrive on large crowds of cheering fans, and has now seen the suspension of March Madness, basketball games, as well as the threat of cancellations of Major League baseball opening day, or playing to empty stadiums

With an overall projection of $1 trillion, there were broad concerns about the lending industry supporting both personal and commercial needs; and, which has seen the stock market already on a downward spiral after weeks of a roller coaster ride.

Worries of the differences between treasures and futures are sending investors into a panic mode “because signs of stress there can foretell lending pullbacks,” according to the Journal.

Most economists and academics are fearing that a recession is imminent.

The Federal Reserve has slashed interest rates to near zero and on Thursday, the Senate approved a House bill to give emergency relief to American workers, according to Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin which would place money directly into the hands of most Americans.  

“The first one would be $1,000 per person, $500 per child,” Mnuchin said. “So for a family of four, that’s a $3,000 payment.”

“As soon as Congress passes this, we get this out in three weeks. And then, six weeks later, if the president still has a national emergency, we’ll deliver another $3,000,” Mnuchin said in a Fox Business Network interview.

Furthermore, as CNBC.com reported, “Mnuchin said the White House’s plan would also allocate $300 billion for small businesses, noting that “there will be loan forgiveness” for employees who keep their workers on the payroll. $200 billion would also be used for “more facilities” with the Federal Reserve, as well as secured lending to airlines and other critical industries being strangled by the crisis.”

There is some opposition to the airline industry getting support, since with its last cash infusion after 9/11 and with the corporate tax reduction, many put most of the money into stock buyback options and executive salaries.

This one time effort will not be enough said, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, who in the same report suggested “instead that providing expanded and “beefed-up” unemployment insurance would cover Americans “for a much longer time and would provide a much bigger safety net.”

While it’s clear that a multi pronged effort is needed, just how long this will last, or if further measures will be needed, “Earlier this month, the president signed into law an $8.3 billion bill that sailed through Congress with near-unanimous support. On Wednesday, Trump signed an additional $100 billion package that includes provisions for emergency paid leave for workers as well as free testing for the deadly virus,” added CNBC.

Compromising the entire dilemma is that in the U.S. who, where and when people can get tested depends on where you live, with some, noted the Journal, getting access and test results in hours, and some measures limited to those who may or may not be symptomatic.

CDC kits were defective, at first but have been corrected, but while public health labs are cost free, the delay means the ongoing epidemiology of the virus is hurting research efforts.

Adding to the piecemeal approach is that necessary materials to make the test kits are in short supply, making most, if not many, vulnerable to this virus.

February Jobs Report: fire before the coronavirus storm

The February Jobs Report, issued by the U.S. Labor Department, was mostly a continuation of the last several months, despite exceeding the 175,000 non-farm jobs that was predicted by many economists’ and, the increase to 275,000, with an unemployment rate of 3.5 percent was pre corona virus, which has made the report mostly irrelevant as fears of the virus, or Covid-19, puts that in sharp relief against a background of fears of illness, and worldwide deaths.

Some good news was that “Employment gains for January and December, meanwhile, were revised up by a combined 85,000. The government raised the increase in new jobs in January to 273,000 from 225,000. December’s gain was lifted to 184,000 from 145,000,” reported Marketwatch.com.

With an increased fear of a pandemic, the Federal Reserve Board of the United States, issued a half-point interest rate cut, the first since 2008, and while the move might have soothed the nerves of investors, it was not long lived as 10 year treasuries dipped at the end of trading that day to less than one percent, further sharpening concerns, since a it can be a goal post of economic health, as well as consumer spending.

Earlier concerns were still present in February: wage earnings of 3.0 percent, year over year despite the tagline of a 50 year low; and, one which is getting tattered as the months roll on.

Some easing of the global market was presaged due to the Trump Administration’s easing of trade concerns with China, but most observers had posited that as political cover for the 2020 presidential campaign.

The Washington Post reported that “Global markets have shown volatility and fallen sharply as investors have monitored the coronavirus’s dampening effect on manufacturing, travel and consumer spending. Analysts are predicting that global growth this quarter could slow to the lowest levels since the financial crisis.”

The grounding of the 737 Max is still an important component of U.S. and global economic concerns, and continued to dim the lights on what some wanted to see as confirmation of an expansive U.S. economy.

Private employers, a few days prior, had reported 183,000 jobs created, coming close to federal market predictions and there was seen as a positive trend, albeit compromised and their underlying statement, diplomatically stated, “The labor market remains firm, as private-sector payrolls continued to expand in February,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “Job creation remained heavily concentrated in large companies, which continue to be the strongest performer.”

Adhering to that same mood, ADP reported “that Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “COVID-19 will need to break through the job market firewall if it is to do significant damage to the economy. The firewall has some cracks, but judging by the February employment gain it should be strong enough to weather most scenarios.”

While Zandi seems to be undertaking a positive chord, the winners in the report, leisure and hospitality at a plus of 53,000, are expected to take a nosedive this month with the cancellation of international conferences both in the U.S. and abroad, and Chicago cancelled the International Housewares Show, at McCormick Place, and in Texas South-by-Southwest has also been cancelled, with the expected dent in the profits of not only airlines, but also Visa’s credit card business.

Airlines are feeling the pinch, and United Airlines announced that it began a hiring freeze through June, “postponing scheduled merit raises and inviting employees to apply for unpaid leave, said The New York Times.

“Global airline stocks have shed $41 billion in value, or 25 percent of the sector’s market cap, in the past month. The International Air Transport Association is predicting an 11 to 19 percent drop-off in global passenger revenue this year, driven by falls in airfreight and cargo,” noted The Washington Post.

Taking a more hard-edge estimation, “There is a red line in the calendar,” said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. “The value of it is that this report gives us a kind of a benchmark of where we were before things began to go wrong,” also according to the Times.

Taking a wider look often involves a marker and those 10 year treasuries are giving notice, as “The low yield on the 10-year Treasury is a sign that the investors are very concerned about future growth in the economy,” said Eric Jacobson, a senior research analyst at Morningstar. “That’s what happens. When people are worried about everything else, they run to Treasurys because they know they are going to get paid back.”

On the marquee side, as we label the unemployment rate, all seemed good, but as always, it’s important to take a look at those that want full time jobs, but are stuck in part-time jobs and this figure has wavered little since January.

Labor force participation held steady at 63.4, and reflects an increase, but as reported last month, with high numbers of women working; but, also reflects a trend to support working families, where men are working at lower wages, and their wives are forced to take work, or more work to sustain the family, and just as true for single mothers. 

Women have come a long way since this vintage image

These pink-collar jobs, as they used to be known, are heavily concentrated in hospitality transportation and service industries.

“It’s certainly a relief that we had a strong tailwind,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton. “Service, leisure and hospitality, these are all very vulnerable. The good news is that these workers had some cushion ahead of time. It helps blunt the blow,” to the Times.

Wages being central are still a disappointment and even with a strong “firewall” against the coronavirus, as some economists have predicted, all things being equal wages are the central reason why people work, and their expenditures are the driver of the U.S. economy.

The Atlantic noted in late March that "the spiraling cost of living" was bleeding Americans dry and that "for millions, a roaring economy felt precarious or downright terrible" with high housing costs that have "outstripped wages in roughly 80 percent of America's metro regions, " added This Week.

Add the high cost of education and loan repayment many young people cannot afford to move to areas where the better jobs are, not to mention the high cost of child-care, they summarized.

Daniel Zhao, the senior economist at Glassdoor, noted to ABC News, that, “Despite the hot job market, American workers have yet to see wages accelerate," he said. "If things don’t change in the coming months, American workers may not see big wage gains in 2020."

Manufacturing managed to add 15,000 jobs, a feat in that area these days, but the ISM in their report has noted that from January 2020 there has been a 2.2 percent reduction, reflecting an 8 percent difference between 50.1 percent in February and 52 percent from the first month of the year, also reflected in new orders.

The ISM is considered one of the most reliable economic indicators and its report shows cautious optimism as well as some mixed news with employment, and “This is the seventh month of employment contraction, but at a slower rate compared to January,” they said.

 “Among the six big industry sectors, two expanded and four contracted . . .  of the 18 manufacturing industries, three reported employment growth in February: Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; and Computer & Electronic Products”; but all reflective of the dangers of Covid-19 for the future, as we have seen.

Engineering News-Record, offered some conjoined news, reporting that “Construction’s jobs surge continued for the second-straight month as the industry’s workforce expanded by 42,000 in February, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has reported.

The February numbers, contained in a BLS report released on March 6, follow a construction gain of 49,000 in January, as the bureau adjusted its initial preliminary figure upward by 5,000 for that month, making a stronger gain than expected."

March will be a truer indicator of where the U.S. jobs market is going to go, and the effect of the virus, and that view may not show the optimism of some, and one can only take the long view at this point.

Updated March 9, 2020, 5:52 DCST

Post acquittal Trump on a roll

While the Democrats battle it out for the nomination, amidst discussions of whether that person should be moderate, or progressive, and the merits of Fidel Castro, President Trump has taken a widening and aggressive stance, after his impeachment acquittal, a position that supported many of the earlier fears of the DNC as they fought against impeachment; but now his name calling, posturing and sackings have been taken to a fever pitch, against the backdrop of rallies, where he has excoriated all that oppose him.

Shortly after the impeachment, where he was infuriated by Mitt Romney’s vote to impeach, (thus robbing him of unequivocal acquittal), the heads began to roll along with the sacking of Alexander Vindman and his brother Yevgeny, both back to the Pentagon, to be reassigned.

Then his remarks about the Democrats as “do nothing” and even worse terms, which, by extension, he decided to ramp up loyalty tests for current staff members

Most egregious was the president's public disagreement with the plea from Arthur C. Brooks at the National Prayer Breakfast, to put away partisan rancour and accept Jesus' call to love our enemies; at which Trump said, taking the podium, "I don't know if I agree with you."

MSNBC quoted the Washington Post in its coverage, "What began as a campaign of retribution against officials who participated in the impeachment process has evolved into a full-scale effort to create an administration more fully in sync with Trump's id and agenda."

Aligned with that is that anything or anyone that demonizes and infuriates the left is a starting point to stay in Trump’s good graces.

On the same theme, The New York Times reported, that the Administration was looking for those that were “insufficiently committed to the president or suspected of not aggressively advancing his agenda."

Ominously, White House Deputy Press Secretary Hogan Gidley on Fox News, said there are "a lot of folks" in the executive branch who may not be committed to the Trump agenda. "If we find them," he added, "we will take appropriate action."

If this sounds more like a medieval court than the world’s most famous republic, then that seems to be what we are now encountering, in Washington; and the fear of loyalty tests has many staffers who thought they were safe, now very worried.

The protectionist stance sends a message that most have surmised that the president was guilty in his “perfect” call to the Ukrainian president.

“The National Security Council, the State Department and the Justice Department are targets of particular focus, according to two administration officials, and there have recently been multiple resignations and reassignments at each of those agencies,” reported the Post.

Johnny McEntee, director of personnel is the point person on the purges and seems to have been on a mandate from Trump’s tweet: “We want bad people out of our government!”

We have seen loyalty tests before, mostly in corporate life, but now that there is the reflection on the highest levels many are wondering about the fallouts, which were most recently seen in the Bush administration with the director of FEMA and the disastrous response to Katrina, and now with “Trump’s decision . . .  to appoint Richard Grenell as the next acting director of national intelligence, placing a fiercely loyal but inexperienced ally atop an intelligence structure against which the president has frequently railed,” is sending another dangerous precedent.

Supporting this effort is the president’s son, Don, Jr, and his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, under the cover of supporting Trump’s agenda, but in reality, say critics covering up his past, and possible corruption.

“Brendan Buck, a longtime adviser to former House speaker Paul D. Ryan (R-Wis.), said that while Trump is entitled to have political appointees who support his agenda, the purity tests could make it difficult to find qualified people.

“If they also insist on hiring only people who’ve never taken issue with something the president has done, it’s going to be slim pickings,” he said, to the Post.

With the 2020 election coming closer, and closer the man who some said never wanted to be president, but did so as a public thumb nosing at Hillary Clinton, wants to stay in the job and the political benefits of loyalty can be seen in the Alabama primary with Bradley Byrne and his allegiance to Trump when the president said, “Bradley Byrne, Alabama. What a great place. Thank you, Bradley” at a White House event, which was quickly and strategically placed as support for him, a not so implicit version of quid pro quo by the president.

Seeing is believing and this is just the type of action that Speaker Nancy Pelosi feared, along with the danger of incumbent Democrats, that would further embolden the president’s notorious, and nefarious behavior; until she and other leaders were pushed by the whistleblower’s revelations on Ukraine.

Doug Jones of Alabama is representative of vulnerable Democrats, especially in ruby red states such as his, he is especially vulnerable.

With November approaching soon, the president is thinking of those independent voters or dissatisfied Democrats, in dark blue states such as Illinois, and the recent commutation of former Gov. Rod Blagojevich, which sends a clear signal that Trump is taking no vote for granted.

Likewise his extension of the Muslim Ban to Nigerians, further bolstering his anti-immigrant base, and furthering his nativist stance, and by even further extension of the old Lindbergh led, America First; although a bright line around even that is dubious.

Friday’s news of an agreement with the Taliban is mostly symbolic, and dependent on the latter’s good will and honor something that Middle East scholars find questionable.

What is also questionable are the actions of the Justice Clarence Thomas’ wife Ginni Thomas who has taken her hard right stance to a recent meeting with the president trashing just about everyone, and everything, and even excoriating the White House for “blocking Trump supporters from getting jobs in the administration,” reported The New York Times. 

While somewhat outside of her square say she has taken a stance both consistent with her radicalized DNA but also seems an attempt to build on a thwarted run at Congress, in her younger years, not to mention unethical, even for a fringe organization.

“It is unusual for the spouse of a sitting Supreme Court justice to have such a meeting with a president, and some close to Mr. Trump said it was inappropriate for Ms. Thomas to have asked to meet with the head of a different branch of government< mused the Times.

Even as a fringe conservative her actions and speech have caused alarm in many quarters of the nation’s capital, and is also attached to her conservative Christianity and in fact, “Ms. Thomas — whose group, Groundswell, was formed in 2013 to strategize against Democrats and the political left and meets weekly — joined others in prayer at the start of the meeting. Some members of the group prayed at different moments as the meeting continued.”

Some at the meeting, seemingly at odds with Christian principles, suggested that Republican leaders be “tarred and feathered” as Trump, who was in attendance, asked that Senate Majority leader Mitch McConnell and House Minority leader, Kevin McCarthy be spared, if not from those suggested actions, perhaps from eternal hellfire.

Retribution, radicalism and retrenchment seem to be the order of the day for the post acquittal Trump administration, and as the old expression noted, “it’s all over but for the fighting.”

Updated March 9, 2020 at 6:18 p.m. DCST

Sanders leading the Dems, but questions are raised

In a series of strategic moves, the self-proclaimed Socialist Democrat has moved up the scale after the New Hampshire primary and Nevada caucus giving him an edge to the front of the crowded field for presidential nomination and causing hearts to swell from the legion of young supporters, but also some consternation from DNC headquarters, fearful that this self-styled revolutionary leader will take the party in a different direction, and risk losing the majority in the U.S.House of Representatives.

Some are also feeling that Sanders needs to be stopped, and stopped soon, as many Democratic leaders wonder if he can stand up under a debate with President Trump, who some say is itching to have him as an opponent.

One thing for certain is the 78-year old has a loyal fan base, not only from the oft described Bernie Bros, but also those voters that are lower middle-class and earning under $50,000.

Sanders has amassed about $17 million dollars, nearly triple the amount of his moderate rivals, noted the Wall Street Journal, last weekend, and his online small purse contributions have reached $25 million.

What makes this different than in 2016 is that Sanders and his team have reached out to a broader base and one that is more brown than white, as evidenced by the outreach and cold hard cash in the Nevada caucus that gave him a boost by Latino voters who, some accounts say, are viewing him for saving them from being outsiders.

From listening to Sanders it seems that he has learned to harness his ideals to process something that he sorely lacked, said his critics; also coupled with the lack of as Politico noted, he has no record at forging actual legislation. “or left a significant imprint on it.”

This is a departure from the old Bernie who saved most of his fire and support for tearing down America and rebuilding it, not in a fortnight, but on Day One in office. And, while this prompted ridicule from his detractors, all veteran “Washington Insiders”, it seems to have also given him a resolve to a “do-over” that shows that, while not eschewing that resolve, but expanding his base. And, it seems to be working.

Sanders now has a double digit lead.

His record in the House and the Senate reveal more of an influencer and a supporter that someone who led, and even his admirers admit that.

“On the issues that are his bread and butter issues on the campaign trail, he’s certainly altered the conversation, but in terms of the change and the result, I haven’t seen a lot of it in three years,” said Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.), who serves with Sanders on the Budget Committee and has endorsed Clinton, though he also describes himself as a Sanders fan.

Black voters still seem reluctant to support him and the old canard of “he marched with Dr. King” seems to not hold much water, if it ever did.

In the spirit of the span of four years there are reports that Sanders is neck and neck with Joe Biden, according to a recent Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, showing just under one-third of black voters.

Edging into the black vote is Michael Bloomberg and Elizabeth Warren, “but lower levels than for Messrs. Biden and Sanders,” noted the Journal.

As delegates come a cropper, it seems that there might be a floor fight in the national convention in Milwaukee, something not seen since the early 60s and almost happened with the Kennedy Johnson ticket. And while only those who are combing grey hair remember those days, there could be something redolent of that; and with Buttigieg crying foul at the Nevada votes, political rancor might be just around the corner.

Even just turning the corner we see that there is substantial controversy regarding recent remarks of Sanders praising Fidel Castro for his literacy efforts; sending some to the set of encyclopedias in the family den to see what the Cuban leader did.

What he did and even did not do, was not a black and white de facto bad, for all people, and at all times. Certainly this literacy was in the efforts of propaganda --- no use writing it for people who cannot read, but Castro’s efforts were far reaching and was a potent admixture of some relative good, some justifiably bad, and definitely not without self-interest.

Even allowing that the Batista regime was corrupt, Castro was a dictator, and was an odd choice to bring up on the campaign trail. But, Sanders has not backed away from the statement.

On Tuesday the DNC had to do some damage control and distance itself from Sanders, and “Democratic National Committee spokesperson Xochitl Hinojosa: "I'll let Bernie Sanders speak for his comments but we are very clear in the Democratic party that we speak out against brutal dictatorships like those of Castro. And we support the people of Cuba, fleeing Cuba under that dictatorship. And we have been very clear as a party when it comes to that."

Dogging Sanders was Saturday’s news that Russia was supporting his candidacy, a move that while lacking details begs the question of why if he knew of it one month ago, did he not get in front of the issue and reveal it.

Many voters are now wondering if he lacks the strategy, or that of his advisers, to handle issues, and this charge is one of the milder ones he would face a president; and his anger at the Washington Post seems misplaced. As we can see from the current White House, anger as a response can only take one so far.

New Hampshire results point the way ahead for Democrats

The results are now on the record books for New Hampshire and  were as expected with Bernie in the lead, followed by Pete Buttegieg, then Amy Klobuchar, and trailing behind Elizabeth Warren and Joe Biden. So, while the results were no great surprise, what many are looking at is to see if the historical precedent can make a prediction in a race where no one clear victory stands out for the Democrats nearly nine months before the election.

There is also an expected bump for the three as well as a healing from the tabulation debacle in Iowa, where the local DNC head, Troy Price resigned, resigned after a malfunctioning app failed to deliver the results, and the results had to be tallied by hand, using paper and pencil.

New Hampshire like Iowa, after the app debacle  is now seen as not being truly representative of the nation, on the whole, and there are calls for a national primary, or a move to another state that is more representative, such as Illinois which has the support of both its Gov. J.B. Pritzker and Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot.

“Former 2020 candidate Julián Castro . . . openly questioned why two predominantly white states get to hold such power over the presidential nominating process,” reported Vox.com..

“I actually believe we do need to change the order of the states because I don’t believe we’re the same country we were in 1972. ... our country’s changed a lot in those 50 years,” Castro said on MSNBC this fall.

“What I really appreciate about Iowans and the folks in New Hampshire is that they take this process very seriously. At the same time, demographically it’s not reflective of the United States as a whole, certainly not reflective of the Democratic Party, and I believe that other states should have their chance.”

One factor in  favor of the latter  is the use of paper ballots used to decide on the 24 delegates that have historically awarded the weakest candidate, and dethroned the ones primed and thought to win.

“ . . the US Census estimates New Hampshire is 90 percent white; in Iowa, it’s 85 percent. By contrast, the United States as a whole is just 60 percent white. The concerns of black and Latino voters, while represented in other early states Nevada and South Carolina, still don’t have as much power as the first two states, simply because of the order of the contests.”.

Naysayers point out that in 2016 New Hampshire had a high turnout of 52 percent, and for some that is still significant. But, equally worth noting is that voters there don’t make up their mind till the last minute, or as they enter the voting booth.

Looking in the rearview mirror

It is also an area, where politics is sport and conversation can quickly take a political turn, and “Historically, no major-party nominee has won the nomination without coming first or second in New Hampshire. Winning here, all else equal, increases a candidate’s expected share of the primary vote by 27 percentage points,” according to political scientist William Mayer.

History can make strange bedfellows, as well as results, notably  when both Harry Truman and Lyndon Johnson both lost,  in the 1950s and 1960s; and, with that in mind it’s time to turn  towards the present.

For New Hampshire it’s Sanders at 25.7 percent and Buttigieg at 24,4 percent and Klobuchar at 19.8 percent and Elizabeth at 9.2 and Joe at 8.4 percent, at,or near, what the polls showed.

The pundits always had Sanders winning in his neighboring state and after former mayor Pete scored well in Iowa, his second place finish was also considered a win.

Issues still matter

Then there are the issues -- if anyone remembers them outside of sound bites, “gotcha” moments, and the like

On the front burner is still health care and Medicare for All - “I wrote the damn bill” Sanders now colloquial tagline, is still reflective of progressives and the left, but has taken some hits from moderate centrists like Buttigieg, whose incremental steps are not always out of the ballpark, for many voters, and while lacking specifics  - one of his traits - is in line with what most say that have  private insurance say: they love it -- 60 percent - and throwing this away might cause more dissension among Sanders and Warren, and from a strategic point might give Pete an edge, and as the late host of “Meet the Press” always said, it’s about the numbers.

In states like Iowa and New Hampshire with all white voters, either college graduates, or rurals, the theme of incrementalism can help the former mayor.

What won’t help him is his low ratings with African Americans where he only has a 2 percent national standing --- and based on his inactions, intransigence and cavalier attitude toward black voters, such as telling a black woman, who challenged him on his record with the South Bend community, “Ma'am I don’t want your vote” is giving him, to many, the label of a racist, coupled with comments made during a children’s television show.

 "It’s an embarrassing thing to admit, but the people who wrote the Constitution did not understand that slavery was a bad thing and did not respect civil rights.”

Topping this off was this statement was another: that he was unaware that South Bend schools were segregated, despite having a husband as a teacher.

There is still the dominant issue of climate change coming to the forefront as it should be and this is more a gift from the left than the center, and with young voters, a predominant issue since it will be their world that will suffer from lack of attention.

Affordable housing is also there and Warren wants to use “federal funds to build more houses,” while Buttegeig, Klobuchar and Bloomberg want to combine federal funding and rent subsidies --- but it;’s notable that the former South Bend mayor’s position is not much different than his tear down and replace, and still lacks a more targeted funding stream for low income people of color.

Lowering prescription drug costs has almost become an  urgency and most of the candidates are in agreement on negotiating drug prices, like Canada, and other countries.

Klobuchar’s rise in the polls may have something to do with what is more of a targeted plan. Perhaps redolent of “being the adult in the room” in some debates, but she also shows more than a dose of Midwestern pragmatism.

"Lifting the ban on Medicare negotiations for prescription drugs by passing and signing into law Senator Klobuchar’s Empowering Medicare Seniors to Negotiate Drug Prices Act.", "Allowing personal importation of safe drugs from countries like Canada by passing and signing into law Senator Klobuchar’s bipartisan Safe and Affordable Drugs from Canada Act.", "Stopping pharmaceutical companies from blocking less-expensive generics by passing and signing into law Senator Klobuchar’s bipartisan Preserve Access to Affordable Generics Act and Biosimilars Act.” according to her website. 

Far from the Beltway, her voice as a moderate has been shadowed by Biden as the centrist standard bearer, yet his deflating campaign seemed to have lost more than lustre as he abandoned New Hampshire as a win, and decided to re energize for South Carolina where his firewall of older black voters is expected to push him back into the spotlight.

Bloomberg enters the fray against Biden

Now comes, the entrance of another billionaire, and another former mayor, this time from New York, Michael Bloomberg, who has recently garnered significant support from black leaders, and whose strategy after sitting out New Hampshire is to chip away at Biden’s firewall, which may be crumbling after his drop in New Hampshire.

While there has been justifiable criticisms of stop and frisk policies in New York that resulted in a modest crime reduction, and the mostly innocent young black men, simply running errands, or on their way to work and school. And, while his recent apologies Bloomberg seems to be more focused on pushing Joe Biden aside, for the black vote, and has used his billions on market saturation with ads far and wide in the American South, still home to many black voters, and especially older black voters

He also has a legacy of lawsuits for sexually harassing women, and a near totalitarian view of policing, and his odd view that  the end of redlining was responsible for the housing crisis, reported Slate.com.

A recent “Quinnipiac poll showed that Black voter support for Bloomberg, by measure of this one poll, was within 5 percentage points of former Vice President Joe Biden’s. A second poll in Florida showed Bloomberg leading in the state. A further breakdown showed Bloomberg is trailing Biden among Black voters and ahead of him in Hispanic support.”

“Michael Bloomberg is leading the pack of Democratic presidential hopefuls in Florida, according to a new survey from St. Pete Polls, a sign that the former New York City mayor has picked up traction in a crucial swing state before most of his rivals have even started to campaign there,” reported The Hill

Cash works wonders, and there is talk that some black leaders in the South have been paid, or are being paid - a practice that has long been held in U.S. politics but has also been criticized as being less than heartfelt..

“Earlier this week, South Florida progressive activist Elijah Manley said he received a call from a Bloomberg staffer who offered him $6,500 per month (plus medical benefits) if Manley would join the campaign as an adviser for "racial justice and social justice issues." Manley says he declined because he's a Bernie Sanders supporter and because he thought Bloomberg was, frankly, trying to buy black support in Florida,” reported the Miami New Times.

“The poll shows Bloomberg with 27.3 percent support in the Sunshine State, up 10 points from a similar poll released late last month. Biden, meanwhile, has seen his support in Florida plummet, falling from more than 41 percent in January to 25.9 percent this month.”

There may be some irony with him -- stop and frisk controversy aside --- and as The Nation pointed out earlier this year, and last, he left, as mayor, affordable housing completely out of the picture, “projecting a large increase in population but ignoring the near certainty that a large share of those additional New Yorkers would be unable to afford market-rate housing,” according to researcher Benjamin Dulchin, Moses Gates, and Narika Williams, noted journalist and quoted by historian Eric Alterman for The Nation.

This no doubt affected all New Yorkers, but especially a hit taken by black residents, who according to Alterman, those living in public housing suffered from a “incompetence and [a] lack of accountability,” according to a report by City Comptroller Scott Stringer, whom he also quoted.

All of which resulted in cost burdened  renters whose 42 percent spent on rent also effaced costs for such food, transportation and health care.

Black leaders take note.

Biden meanwhile, as earlier noted, after his low place in New Hampshire seems to be losing support from many including previous supporters who no longer feel that he is the one to beat Trump, and places too much on electability and the glow of the “Barack effect” as Obama’s vice-president, making a way for Sanders who lacks black support and the endeavors of the baby boomer Tom Steyer who have come to South Carolina and done retail politicking.

.“I haven’t seen a real investment of both money and people, and I haven’t seen the vice president spend much time here,” Rep. J.A. Moore said to Politico. “The narrative this election cycle is not taking African-Americans, especially African-American women, for granted. Yet the former vice president hasn’t spent money here nor had an organizational structure here. At least I haven’t seen it.”

Yet there is still fervor for Bden among many of South Carolina’s black leadership and his ardent supporters, as Politico discovered.

“The county of Sumter, South Carolina, has more African-Americans than the entire state of New Hampshire,” said state Sen. Marlon Kimpson, who endorsed Biden in January. “Yes, we would rather have done better, but there’s precedent for candidates not winning New Hampshire and Iowa but going on to win the presidency.”

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January Jobs Report: Beyond the numbers

January’s Jobs report released Friday by the U.S. Labor Department gave a healthy surprise to those economists and bankers who had predicted a modest 164,000 non-farm payroll jobs, only to see a whopping 225,000, with both the unemployment rate, as well as average wages inching up, respectively to 3.6 and 3.1 percent.

This was good news for many and indicated that the American economy was steady if not spectacular, and showed no signs of  a crisis, but as with past reports over the last year showed wages to still be lowered than expected with a tight labor market, in defiance of all known economic standards.

Some observers feel that one group has benefited, namely those lower income people without college degrees, who are mostly employed in service jobs, and have seen an increase in pay, including those with criminal backgrounds, or minor convictions.

Politically speaking, a strong economy has been a boon to the reelection efforts of President Trump who has touted the economy as another reason to keep him in the White House.

Joined to the easing of Sino-American relations with the Phase I relief from the Chinese tariffs, coupled with the new NAFTA agreement with Canada and Mexico, Wall Street as well as Main Street feels a sense of relief.

Despite a tight labor market, for many American families, both middle-class and working, the lack of affordable housing and changes in tax benefits has become a backdrop to the headlines.

With increased urbanization, has come higher rental prices, with a market that has new construction turning toward high earning individuals and families, causing major American cities such as Chicago, but also others, as we will see, causing many lower earning people to spend at least 50% of their income on housing, with relatively little left over for basic expenditures, not to mention emergencies.

Taking a closer look at the joined realties of the labor market, the U.S. economy and other realities, as well as political, the picture is not as rosy as some might believe.

Political Headwinds

While Trump has touted the strong economy as a means to reelection there are some caveats. Between his administration and that of his predecessor Barack Obama, “perceptions about a healthy economy will not necessarily offer Mr Trump much more than a marginal boost,” reported The Economist in January.

As they noted, “Between 1960 and 2008, a one-percentage-point increase in the University of Michigan's index of consumer sentiment predicted a half-percentage point increase in the president’s approval rating.” And, that link was broken, they summarized, after Obama’s election.

Furthermore, Trump’s impeachment acquittal excepting, “According to  YouGov, Mr Trump's approval rating sagged from 43% to 40% between October and December 2019, even as families' financial situation improved.”

Hits and then some misses

What we have seen, as part of the bump, is a mild winter that helped in construction, as well and was consistent with what Grant Thornton economist Diane Swonk predicted, if there was an increase and as she told CNBC, ““I’m looking for 170,000. If we do get a big surprise, it will be weather.

Swonk said that could mean more construction workers than expected and more workers added in the leisure and hospitality sector.”

What went down was manufacturing that took a nosedive with their grounding of the 737 Max jets after notable crashes in 2019; events that also affected the global supply chain.

“Manufacturers cut 12,000 jobs, with most of the losses coming among automakers, and employment also dipped in the mining sector. Job growth in freight transportation was also weak, the latest evidence that the ripple effects of the trade war are continuing to spread,” reported The New York Times.

Wages as we have seen have been a tough slog for American workers, yet those jobs that have seen an increase have been through some, though not all employers using them as an incentive to hire, but many including Illinois low income workers, without degrees seeing wage more attributable to state increases, but not in Philadelphia where Pennsylvania state law does not allow for city increases.

There has been an increase in labor force participation, of 0.2 percent, with a current level of 63.4 percent, especially among women but as we noted last month these are often “pink collar jobs” that are on the lower economic rungs, and offer less stability, and opportunity for growth; all of which has been seen in the 20 percent increase in leisure and hospitality.

Gains are more for the employer than the employee with a bonus for the balance sheet, rather than the household budget.

Homeowners and renters in jeopardy

For homeowners the picture darkens with the end of the SALT deduction from the changes in the 2017 tax law, and as Fortune reported, last October, a loss of a trillion dollars, and ‘That massive number is the reduction in home values caused” by the “cap on federal deductions for state and local real estate and income taxes at $10,000 a year,” added This Week.

With a 4 percent decline in home prices, which result in “a 1.4 trillion setback for the nation’s homeowners,” said Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi, citing the change from the Trump administration tax law.

For renters there is also a downside. With the demise of the refundable security deposit, and the increase in application, move in and pet fees as a general replacement, would be renters face dramatic cost increases, noted Don DeBat is his Chicagoland column.

“Application fees range from about $80 to $100 per renter, Non Refundable move-in fees start at about $350 and go to $500. Some landlords also charge “move-out” fees,” he said, all of which is a downward pull on January’s modest wage increase.

Add pets and a renter can see a “non-refundable pet deposit of $250 per dog and $150 per cat, plus a monthly “pet rent” of $25 per dog and $15 per cat,” DeBat added.

All of which is added to the lack of affordable housing for many across the nation as Market Watch recently reported.

“Being able to pay for housing — along with the rest of one’s everyday expenses — is a challenge for many Americans. And increasingly, that includes middle-income Americans.

A new report from the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University calculates that 10.9 million renters spent more than 50% of their income on housing in 2018. That equates to one in four renters. Moreover, there were 6 million more cost-burdened renters in 2018 than in 2001.”

Who is most affected? “The problem is much more predominant among lower-income Americans — 72% of renters earning less than $15,000 a year were severely burdened as of 2018, as were 43% of renters earning between $15,000 and $30, 000,” it noted.

As many have already discovered, “Nearly 56% of renters earning between $30,000 and $45,000 a year were cost-burdened as of 2018, up 5.4 percentage points from 2011. That was the largest increase in the share of cost-burdened renters across any income band in the country.”

Wages are still a problem

It all comes back to wages whose lack of gains compromise the increase of 225,000 jobs, and after a brief gain in 2018, that rapidly vanished, we are left with not only with an economic conundrum, but one with no signs of abatement.

While consumer confidence has remained high, most economists are wondering for how long, especially with the specter of layoffs and buyouts which are now common for the last several decades, but which were at least bolstered by higher wages; and what we have now are still far below pre-recession levels.

A weakened manufacturing base will eventually take its toll, and the easing of Chinese tariffs has been sidelined by the coronavirus which has caused shutdowns of many of their prime factories.

For African Americans, the picture is brighter and there has been an increase, and their unemployment is at historic low, but yet despite these gains there is a widespread gap; and, at median levels blacks make $0.78 cents to a white median worker’s wage of $1.00.

Those without a college degree face even harder struggles, in a market where that is seen as a baseline qualification.

As the report showed, white unemployment of 3.1 percent, with 6.0 percent for blacks.

For those that cheered the January numbers caution is called for, and for those that took a wider lens on the report, those that are not the 1 percent, the future economic outlook for the U.S. has not been called.