Dems odds in midterm elections seems strong

U.S. Capitol

In less than 100 days, the U.S. Congressional midterm elections will be held - Nov. 6, to be exact - and the that date is one that both the White House, and the Republicans, and especially the Democrats, are counting on to either stay the course, or change the leadership, and by default Congressional partisan behavior. While those who identify as being anti-Trump have grown by leaps and bounds, President Trump has also taken to increasing his political rallies, and tweets, to his gain, or has he?

In a time honored tradition in American politics, this event has shown to be one that takes the temperature of the party, and person, in power; and, the results can be startling, often to the extreme, as was seen with the 63 percent change in the House of Representatives in the Obama administration, with voters alternatively confused, or angered by the Affordable Care Act, known colloquially as Obama Care.

Paling, but no less significant was the 31 percent and historic change under George W. Bush; but November’s outcome also will be revelatory, as the country has seen the reshaping of the Republican party, by Trump, as he has radicalized the once mainstream conservative party; and while it was won him praise by that steadfast 36 percent of supporters, it also shows a dip in his overall approval ratings of 40 percent, a not insignificant number, as a fulcrum for some anxious forecasting.

Debate has centered in one area: the infamous and dangerous comments Trump made, next to a smiling Russian President Vladimir Putin, as he heard the U.S. leader trample the American intelligence community which identified Russia as electronically penetrating private computer systems, and social media sites, in supporting Trump against Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election.

For the president to counter a blue wave, he has to demonstrate to the American electorate, that under his watch, the country has improved. While, some observers and politicos say he can do that, and on many fronts, he can, but to others his often frequent rampages against members of Congress, and not to mention foreign leaders he has undermined the effort, say many of his most ardent supporters.

The stock market has picked up significantly since his election, he has legions of supporters championing his tax plan, as fractured as the individual gains may be, and seeing the near full employment figure of 4 percent, the joy emanating from the White House, has been undermined by an increase in tariffs which has alienated a strong part of his base, farmers, who overwhelmingly say that the imported steel has hurt their profits through greater cost of vital equipment, made of steel; and foremost significant chunks of a profitable export business to China, to whet their appetite for parts of the pig that are not popular in the U.S. market.

Hillary Clinton 

 For the Democrats with a huge base of Trump haters, the temptation is to take that ball and run with it, but this was the same play that Hillary Clinton used in the 2016 election, which led to one, if not the most humiliating defeats in American politics, by someone who was expected to win hands down.

In response, some strategists are saying that it is vital that the Dems stake out issues, as opposed to “hate Trump rhetoric.”  And, there is significant support for this view: “Our candidates are not going to lead with talking about Trump,” said Washington Gov. Jay Inslee (D). “They’re going to lead by talking about economic growth and improving education. You don’t have to mention Trump very much,” reported The Hill.

Still, other critics say, that the change will take some coaxing -- yet others insist that there is not. On the table for swinging the conversation to issues are: the potential loss of insurance coverage for those with pre-existing conditions (after the draconian changes to the ACA, by the GOP) and public schools whose per pupil funding in inequitable areas, as in Chicago, before recent legislation; not to mention school safety after the Parkland massacres and a general tilt towards undermining public education by Betsy DeVos.

Handling Trump seems to be an impossible task, and while many have tried, such as Chief of Staff, Gen. John Kelly, Trump continues on a mad Twitter rage against respected world leaders, and allies, such as German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and British Prime Minister Theresa May; undermining his position, if not his base.

“The economy and tax reform isn’t an abstract issue like Russia,” said Ryan Williams, a New Hampshire Republican operative who advised Mitt Romney. “I wish the president would talk every day about the economy and tax reform instead of other things he talks about. It distracts from the success story.”

Cries of “fake news” and describing the special investigation of Bob Mueller as a “witch hunt” that adds only further to the burden of some Republicans facing a tough battle to retain their seats. And, some don’t want to be associated with talks of disbanding Immigrations and Customs Enforcement, presidential impeachment, fearing political fallout.

What remains is a numbers game, and “Democrats have a clear edge over Republicans in voter enthusiasm. A June survey from the Pew Research Center showed Democratic voters were five points more likely than Republicans to say they were more excited to vote this year than in previous midterms, mirroring other surveys that show Democratic enthusiasm at higher levels than the GOP.”

“But their edge is not as significant as the winning party’s advantage in the last two major wave elections, in 2010 and 2006. Eight years ago, Republicans held a 15-point enthusiasm edge, and they picked up 63 Democratic-held seats in former President Obama’s first midterm election.
 
Four years before that, Democrats had a 32-point enthusiasm gap, and the party picked up 30 seats.
 
“Democrats are angry, and that’s not changing in the next 100 days,” said Ron Klain, a Democratic strategist and former chief of staff to Vice Presidents Joe Biden and Al Gore. “The unknown is whether that anger turns into a huge turnout.”

Go deep, is an age-old football plea, and again, The Hill, is saying: “In 2014, when Democrats led the generic ballot in both CNN and NBC/Wall Street Journal surveys by only slim margins, Republicans ended up winning 13 Democratic-held seats. The last time Democrats gained significantly, in 2006, the party held a 15-point advantage in both surveys.
 
By contrast, Republicans enjoyed a generic ballot advantage of between two and six points in late October 2010, according to CNN and NBC/Wall Street Journal polls, but that narrow edge still resulted in the 63-seat gain.”

On the forefront, is the growing corps of female candidates, that as we have seen, has give significant victories in a Georgia primary,  and a special election in Alabama, and the latter supported by a legion of tightly organized black female voters.

Vox.com recently reported that “A prominent elections forecaster just tilted predictions in eight key House races away from male Republican candidates toward female Democratic contenders, seven of whom are challenging incumbent men. It’s another sign that 2018 could be a big year for women in politics, particularly Democratic women.”

“Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics moved 17 races that he tracks from strongly favoring Republicans closer toward Democrats.

Only one of the 17 seats is currently held by a woman. Two more Republican women, facing male Democratic challengers, are running for seats left open by congressmen who retired. In all, 12 races include a female candidate. Eight of the 17 races moved away from a likely Republican male winner toward a Democratic woman.”

Stacey Abrams

Running is not winning, “But in the 2018 primaries, female candidates have been outperforming their male counterparts, multiple analyses have found. More than 40 percent of Democratic nominees for the US House of Representatives so far are women, according to an NBC News analysis. Meanwhile, fewer than 10 percent of Republican nominees are women, NBC found.”

“Put another way, Democratic female candidates are over performing by about 15 percent in primaries, the Cook Political Report found. In other words, female candidates in 2018 are more likely to defeat male candidates than the other way around, they summarized.

“For all the ups and downs of polling, the reality is Democrats around the country continue to over-perform, often significantly, in special elections. Moreover, we’ve seen stronger than average turnout in primaries,” said Steve Schale, a Florida-based Democratic consultant.

Less sanguine are those that are not quite ready to concede to the Democrats, at least as this point.

“Democrats may not be ahead right now in enough races to win” the House, said Tom Davis, a former chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee. “The Democrats aren’t winning, but they’ve moved these things to single-digit races.”

One thing that the Dems will have to do to score those 25 seats in the House is to get out the vote, to at least hit 32 points.

The next few weeks will be critical for both sides, but especially the Democrats, as they face many of their voters who see a midterm elections as “off year” and unimportant, preferring to only vote in presidential elections.