Iowa Primary: By the numbers for the GOP candidates

The late Tim Russert, host of NBC’s Meet the Press, was famous for his small whiteboard detailing the numbers needed to win the presidential primaries and elections; and, as the country heads into Monday’s Iowa Caucus, as their “first in the nation status”, the Republican Party begins the process of choosing its presidential nominee, we fondly remember that white board. And, while former President Donald Trump is the foregone winner, in the mind of most of his supporters, nipping at his heels,say some, is former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, and Florida Governor Ron De Santis in a bid for that nomination.

In an election that seemingly began in earnest, almost two years ago, the stakes are high for many Americans, those wanting Trump to regain the Oval Office, and those that want Joe Biden to remain. Battle lines have been drawn, and the stalwarts are not shy about which of the two they want to see as president.

Lest those supporters get ahead of themselves, the American democracy has a process, primaries and caucus dominate, after the decades old conventions that used to be the stuff of mid century televised conventions, but which the GOP still uses.

It really is now a numbers game and the various polls require an examination of the numbers, and as many a political wag has noted, issues don’t matter, numbers do, so let’s take a closer look.

In an ABC average Trump “leads national primary polls with 60 percent of the vote . . . His closest rivals are 50 percentage points behind,with DeSantis polling “in a distant second place with 12 percent of the vote,  roughly tied with former Ambassador Nikki Haley.”

Trump then gains a 9 in 10 chance of winning the nomination they noted, with official selection being held at the Republican convention in July, where the delegates elected by contest across the country, and US territories will cast nominee ballots.

The electorate for the GOP has a cross section of populations, moderates, evangelical voters aside, and this is where some issues are significant to gain the needed delegates, as ABC noted 1,215 out of 2,429.

Issues that dominate are immigration, for asylum seekers, cultural issues such as transgender rights, hormone replacement for minor children, LGBT rights, and Critical Race Theory, all of which face mountains of disinformation.

Wedged into the battle for votes are abortion, and the anti woke ideologies that have been called out in Florida by DeSantis, who at one point was seen by some voters as a kinder and gentler version of Trump, but now Haley seems to be making that claim.

For Iowa there are 40 delegates at stake and both she and DeSantis need 22, and 26 to gain delegate majorities. One factor facing both of them is the severe winter weather that has brutalized much of the Midwest and which may keep voters away from the voting booths to avoid exposure to sub zero temps. Yet, Iowans are known to be hearty souls, but with single digit temperatures and sub zero wind chills, how much will that hold?

Using proportionality both the former ambassador and the governor need to get 55 and 65 percent of the vote, say pollsters, admitting that these are high numbers to reach.

In a recent examination by The Hill and citing an interview with DeSantis by CNN by Jake Tapper, he asked in lieu of sagging poll numbers whether his 3rd place standing might force him to drop out.

“CNN’s Jake Tapper asked DeSantis whether he would drop out of the race if he came in third place in Iowa, pointing to a recent NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom that shows the Florida governor trailing former President Trump and former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley with 16 percent of support in the state. DeSantis said on “State of the Union” that he predicted he would “do well” in the race in Iowa.”

“And so these are folks who are very motivated. Our voters are very motivated. We have spent a lot of time in Iowa because we’ve gone door to door getting people to commit to caucus to us,” DeSantis said.”

Trump, ignoring the debates in favor of his preferred town halls, ABC pollsters said he needed 53 of the 197 Super Tuesday delegates, needing 27 percent.

Taking the math further, with his commanding lead, in an all state vote, the former president would score 2,120 delegates of a possible 2,287, nearly 97 percent they noted.

It’s no secret that Trump is knee deep in legal battles, taking official documents after he left the White House, paying of porn star Stormy Daniels to keep her silent about their encounter, inflating the values of his properties to score bigger and better loans,  etc.,all of which in another era might be held against him, but now only serve two things: to give him the profile of a martyr, to his many supporters, and free publicity to enhance just that.

With his larger than life personality,  and love of publicity, we get it, but what worries his competitors is will they get it, those numbers needed to remove him from front runner status?

Aided by Fox news, Trump seems unbeatable in another round of debates with President Biden, so some poll watchers and handlers are thinking of a mano mano battle in November.

What startled many political watchers was former New Jersey  Gov. Chris Christie dropping out of the race on Wednesday, making some wonder if Haley can capture those votes for him. 

A closer look: Christie had about 11.5 percent of poll numbers in New Hampshire according to The Hill/Decision Desk HQ polling index and Haley “is polling 11 percentage points behind” Trump, so her team is probably chomping at the bit to get those votes.

She seems to have put her blunder about the causes of the Civil War behind her, though Christie had some ribald Jersey humor in his criticism of her ignorance, which she later tried to backtrack, and that seems to have worked. But the folks at the Hill have deemed this a fight between two moderates, now minus one. DeSantis seems to hang in there, but having lost the support of Trump, a long time ago, and with his aggressive stance, will siphon off delegate votes from the MAGA crowds is a central question.

The New York TImes columnist Nate Cohn says not, but notes thee is precedence for potential winds citing, “there's a lot of precedence for surging candidates to keep gaining, especially over a contest’s final days. With Mr. Trump at just 42 percent of the vote, there’s no reason to think her path is closed off.”

What remains at stake are not only Christie’s supporters, but the “never Trump” crowd, the moderates, the independents, suburban Republican college educated mothers, and those that might take a back seat in Iowa, even though Trump does hold substantial leads.

As expected Trump did win the Iowa Caucus with the support of rural, white, non college educated people, many of whom identified as Evangelicals, with 51 percent of the vote, along with 21 percent for De Santis, and 19 for Haley.

Voter turnout out was lighter than for previous caucuses, with 110,000 voters, of the nearly 752,000 registered Republicans, which many are attributing to the severe winter weather and deep snowfalls, as well as some voter apathy, but in the end Trump won 20 delegates, 8 for De Santis, and 7 for Haley.

Updated Jan. 19, 2024 at 9:40 a.m. CST