Biden out, Kamala Harris in

Sunday’s announcement from the White House in a letter from the White House, posted on the social media platform X from President Joe Biden that he was going to stand down from being a candidate for the presidency in the 2024 election left most people in the United States thunderstruck, especially after saying for weeks that he was going to stay, and notably at a recent rally in Detroit where there was a roaring approval from the crowd.

For many, especially his supporters in Chicago, there was a sense of disbelief and sadness, and a distinct feeling that Biden was being pushed out, especially from the donor class, led by actor George Clooney, who had been a prominent fundraiser, but also from Democratic leadership, such as former Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, and House Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, coupled with a raft of major newspapers, most notably The New York Times, who in an editorial, said that he needed to step down, due to his age, and surprisingly also a reliable supporter, The Washington Post. 

Whether it was this growing chorus, or that coffers were being closed, and depriving him of the needed money for his campaign, or advice from his family, the latter which is unknown, the decision was made after months of criticism and wariness of his age, 81, and especially of his mental acuity, after a dismal debate performance with former President Donald Trump, where suffering from a bad cold and two overseas trips, he seemingly lost his train of thought, and did not give the succinct answers his supporters expected.

It’s not necessarily a surprise to see this concern, because many people had told us of it, and added unfounded claims of senility, or Alzheimer's, the die was cast, and the pressures, in combination with the above, led to his withdrawal.

What he did next, endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic candidate was not only expected but hoped for, and the reaction among many of their leadership was a wholesale endorsement, with the notable exception of former President Barack Obama, has energized Democrats and the money has poured in, to the tune of $231 million dollars in less than a day.

Harris herself, while the obvious choice for a replacement does face considerable obstacles, number one being a woman, in a country, rare in the Western World, that has not had a female head of state, but also being a racial minority, with an Indian born mother and a Jamaican father, and who identifies as a Black American, and one who brings considerable background as an attorney general for California and also as a District Attorney, plus three and a half years as vice president.

For political baggage she has the role as intercessor for the crisis at the Southern Border, and is already being beaten about the head by Republicans, as the “Border Czar,” a false title, but nevertheless a convenient smear, since immigration is the leading issue for the GOP, and a signature part of any Trump speech, and he has been widely reported saying that immigrants are “poisoning the blood”of Americans, violent crime, false claims of illegal voting, and a host of unwarranted social ills.

In August the Democrats will hold their convention in Chicago, and at stake is an open, if not brokered convention, the former which last happened in the same city in 1968. But, as of Monday it was reported that Harris had a clear majority of delegates to clinch the nomination, and she needs 1,976 pledged delegates and she has far exceeded that number.

In a statement released from her campaign late on Monday, she said, “Tonight, I am proud to have secured broad support needed to become our party’s nominee, and as a daughter of California, I am proud that my home state’s delegation helped put our campaign over the top. I look forward to formally accepting the nomination soon.”

Obama has indicated that he wants an open primary versus a political anointing, and with the money and the endorsements pouring in might be tempting; but, since the primary votes to Biden are not automatically granted to Harris, there may be some type of political horse trading to be done.

Harris has also received a vast array of endorsements from lawmakers across the country, and all of the Democratic governors have given their support, among them, Gov. JB Pritzker of Illinois, Wes Moore, Roy Cooper, Gretchen Whitmer, and Mark Warner.

Meanwhile the Trump campaign is in seeming tatters as they based their entire campaign on fighting Biden and now have become increasingly concerned about Harris, and her roles in public service, in two prominent roles, and the vice presidency and her reputation as a prosecutor, and with sharp elbows has caused Trump to say he will not debate her in September, in what many of her supporters have told us, “would make mincemeat out of him.”

There are questions that the Republicans might mount a legal challenge to the Harris candidacy, but some legal and government voices have said that won't happen.

Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, in particular has expressed his doubts about the legality of Harris appearing on the ballot, citing state rules, and along with other GOP officials has threatened to take Democrats to court, but legal opinion says that there's no standing for that effort, and Axios quoted Ben Ginsberg, “an attorney who has long represented Republicans,” who said," There's nothing to the these threats, a convention naming a candidate who then gets ballot placement in every state is the normal course of business.”

No one candidate is the official nominee, until there is a vote, wrote legal scholar Rick Hansen in his op-ed piece for slate.com on Monday.

The most emphatic “no” was from Democratic attorney, Marc Elias who told MSNBC, “There is a zero, point, zero, zero, zero percent that Mike Johnson and his fever dream, of somehow there being legal action to prevent Kamala Harris . . . to keep [her] off the ballot, there is no chance that will happen.”

This is a developing story

Trump shooting is rooted in a violent America

 

In the aftermath of Saturday’s attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump, the wide ranging and sincere comments from lawmaker and pundits was that political violence had no place in American life, and while that may be true, to at least the acceptance of that specific event, American history is replete with political violence stretching back to the killing of Alexander Hamilton by Aaron Burr, in 1804, the caning of abolitionist Senator Charles Sumner in 1856, the shooting that felled President Garfield in 1881, Abraham Lincoln in 1865,the shooting of Theodore Roosevelt in 1912,  the assassination of of John F. Kennedy in 1963, Bobby Kennedy in 1968, the shooting of Ronald Reagan in 1981, and of Congresswoman Gabby Gifford in 2011,Congressman Steve Scalise in 2017, and the physical assault in 2022 on Paul Pelosi the husband of the then Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, but intended for her.

As a nation, America is awash in blood, but not only for politicians but also for hundreds of everyday citizens victims of domestic violence, street gangs, urban warfare, not to mention the killings at Columbine, Marjory Stoneman Doulgas High School, and Sandy Hook, and Las Vegas, and Highland Park Illinois, to name but a few of mass killings.

The image of a bloodied Trump, after a bullet pierced his ear, has now become an iconic image and cements his stature as a martyr, and one that he has always portrayed himself as, if not a victim.

Taking a step back we have to remember that he has told so many lies about the mundane, for example how many people showed up at his inauguration, claiming more than that of Barack Obama, to embracing the deep state conspiracy, aided by such figures as Marjorie Taylor Greene, and that Mexico was sending rapists to American shores, ostensibly as immigrants; migrants being put up in luxury hotels by New York city administration officials, to the dangerous, that ingesting bleach could “cure” the Covid virus.

The fact that so many people have embraced these lies, and the very danger that has incited people to the attack on the US Capitol on January 6th speaks volumes of what has become the Big Lie, that Joe Biden was not the lawfully elected president of the United States.

The rhetoric, along with the lies that has been so incendiary it’s frightening to hear people say that the off the cuff remark by Biden that he had Trump in his target like a bullseye, and that helped fuel the gunman that fired off rounds in rural Western Pennsylvania is incalculably false.

Facing the inherent danger of falsehoods now gives rise to sympathy for the shooting, but it will soon be back to the accusations, and the grandstanding that has become part of not simply American politicking, but the 21st century tenor of life in America.

The incendiary comments of Trump, now aided by his vice presidential candidate JD Vance, a junior senator from Ohio, whose earlier remarks blaming Democrats for the shooting (along with Speaker of the House Mike Johnson) has fueled the falsehoods Trump, and who are now making statements to turn down the political rhetoric seems ironic.

Vance said on social media, “The central promise of the Biden campaign is that President Donald Trump is an authoritarian fascist who must be stopped at all costs,” and “That rhetoric led directly to President Trump’s attempted assassination.”

Against this background was, and which may possibly resurface, the media driven attempt to get Biden to stand down as a candidate for the November election, and to find someone younger, and possibly dynamic, from the ranks of younger lawmakers, and while we’ve noted the difficult of vetting presidential candidates, most of whom have never faced such close scrutiny, and among them is Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer herself the target of a far right wing group planning to kidnap her, and who held Trump as a hero.

The threat of a brokered convention in Chicago, is about as concerning as it is for a repeat of the violent suppression of demonstrators at the 1968 Democratic Convention, in an already overheated atmosphere that again could possibly be violent. 

What is now seen are two elders battling it out for a change, or a sustained democracy, and one not only of the values espoused or the future of the nation, but its soul.

June Jobs Report shows US still strong

Resiliency is back on the front burner to describe the US Jobs outlook after Friday’s release by the Labor Dept., that showed 206,000 non farm jobs, and a slight uptick in the unemployment banner of 4.1 percent, all of which has showed a slight cooling off in American employment, and which has given hope to some that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates, but as we have said before, in many previous posts, that the chair, Jerome Powell, is data driven, and the data is not quite there yet as we see with this report.

There has been a shift in the areas that show gains, leisure and hospitality have dipped, as has retail and construction, with the strongest gains showing in education, health care, and state and government employment.

The good news is that this is the 42nd straight month of job gains, and this steady pace, despite the naysayers who predicted a recession; and, most importantly wages have increased to 0.3 percent from May, and lower wage earners have seen their incomes rise, an important move, since they hey spend a greater portion of their income on housing, and other essentials.

For others wages have increased to exceed inflation, helping those people keep pace, and even a little extra, for vacations, and that favorite American pastime: dining out.

This is especially true for those in government employment which peaked at 70,000, health care at 49,000, and a bit of a sleeper category, social assistance which hit 34,000.

Of note construction added 27,000 jobs, and retail changed little 9,000, despite an earlier trend up earlier in the year the report noted, but not quite the major loss that some have stated.

Mary Daly, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, said in a speech before the report was released on Friday, “At this point, we have a good labor market, but not a frothy one,” but added, :future labor market slowing could translate into higher unemployment, as firms need to adjust not just vacancies but actual jobs.”

Revisions of the jobs report are the norm, and both April and May have been revised downward, April now at 108,000, and May to 218,000, which might appear to be examined by Powell and the Federal Open Market Committee, at their next meeting.

In the absence of the London bookies, Americans, especially the stock market, are hedging their bets and are looking at September as their month for interest rates cuts, but, many people, both professionals and consumers, forget that interest rates are cut to stimulate a weakening economy, not to strengthen it, a fact that even many in the media seem to forget.

Neil Dutter at Renaissance Macro Research, was reported, in a note, by The New York TImes, stating, “today’s employment report ought to firm up expectations of a September rate cut.” and added that the cool off, slight as it might be for September, if not at this month’s meeting, that “they ought to make a strong signal a cut is coming.”

Powell himself, true to his pattern, has said, more cooling data would make the grade for a cut, saying, “like what we’ve been seeing recently,” before any rate cutting, and “We’d also like to see the labor market remain strong, We’ve said that if we saw the labor market unexpectedly weakening, that is also something that could call for a reaction.”

One area of note is the dramatic loss of temporary help services, down by 49,00 for the month, taking down that category of business services, and as CNN reported “is often closely watched by economists as it could serve as a forward looking data point in an an otherwise lagging indicator,: since as business grow they hire more temps and if times are tougher, the temp workers are the first to go.”

After first debate, concerns grow about Biden

The much anticipated rematch between President Joe Biden and Donald Trump, the presumed Republican candidate for president in the November 2024 election, the day after their debate garnered headlines the following day when Biden suffering from an obvious head cold tripped over his words, and seemingly lost his train of thought, something that nearly anyone else would have been forgiven, but in less than 72 hours, the national press had a field day saying that his age was an obvious deterrent to continuing his candidacy as the Democratic candidate.

Trump, by contrast, only a few years Biden’s junior, was relatively calm, compared to previous debates in 2020, but was still rolling with lies about immigration, the Southern Border, abortion, inflation, and the economy, yet it was those few gaffes that not only led the media, but also the internet and the social media microblogging site X, formerly known as Twitter.

As we have previously noted, age, which has been carefully studied by psychologists can vary across the spectrum, and while undoubtedly the incumbent and his staff regret those lapses, it's debatable that Bidin is not fit for another term in the White House.

There are some polls that indicate a lack of confidence for some voters and Intelligencer reported on their website that, “According to the results of USA Today–Suffolk’s national poll of 1,000 registered voters (conducted over the weekend), 41 percent of Democrats said Biden should be replaced as the party’s nominee, as did 37 percent of Democrats who said they still planned to vote for him following the debate. Fifty percent of respondents said Trump won the debate, while only 11 percent said Biden won, and, per USA Today’s summary, “when asked an open-ended question about why they thought one candidate or the other had prevailed, most cited either the strength or the weakness of their mental acuity.”

Calls for him to dropout have helped print media, in its prized location, above the fold, and others in the media, smelling blood in the water have leapt to the forefront, but what is notable is that they have largely ignored the lies and falsifications that Trump, appealing to his base, said last Thursday evening.

While it’s unlikely that such a move by Biden will happen already there are names being floated as possible contenders, Gov. Gavin Newsom, of California, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Gov. JB Prtizker of Illinois, Josh Shaprio, former attorney general of Pennsylvania, and Vice President Kamala Harris, who despite low approval ratings, and some early mistakes from Biden, such as giving her a portfolio, similar to his under President Obama, of what The New York Times called “intractable” and “polarizing” issues of “illegal migration and voting rights”, as a seemingly coercive, yet despite those claims, the former prosecutor and senator from California has had a definite upwards shift, not only in stature, but staff to include experienced political operatives.

The traditional Sunday chat shows featured “Maryland Gov. Wes Moore [who] said Sunday that he will not seek the Democratic nomination this year and he does not foresee President Biden leaving the race, making clear that the president is staying the course despite the bruising debate performance that sparked concern among some members of the party last week. 

"Joe Biden is not going to take himself out of this race – nor should he," Moore said on "Face the Nation," making clear that he "will not" seek the nomination.   

The report also noted that, “Moore, a rising star within the party, has been among a group of names floated should Biden leave the race,” but stressed that, "Joe Biden is our nominee, Joe Biden is our leader, and Joe Biden has earned — and Joe Biden deserves — the confidence, the respect, and frankly the partnership that we now have to provide to him." 

There are issues with all of these candidates, the most important being as former Senator Barbara Boxer told the Times,” It’s not as easy as it sounds, being vetted for president is like no other vetting. We don’t know what these people would do.”

What might be the wiser course for the Democrats is to have, not only Harris but other key administration officials fan out across the country to counter the lies that Trump said in the debate. A short list, of which would be:

That he was “the one that got the insulin down for the seniors.”; that “everybody” including not one, but all legal scholars, wanted to end Roe V. Wade; that Biden is fully responsible for inflation; that some states allow for abortions after birth, run, of course, by Democrats; and, of course, his standard punch lines about immigration, that in New York, migrants are being sheltered in luxury hotels, are poisoning the blood of Americans, that Biden is putting all migrants on social security, and that they're being sent by their governments from their prisons, and that there have been nearly 18 million to 20 million sent to the US by the Biden administration, figure that most government officials and researchers put at about one third of that. 

The Associated Press reported that, “Biden appeared to acknowledge the criticism during a rally in Raleigh, North Carolina, saying” I don’t debate as well as I used to.” But he added, “I know how to do this job. I know how to get things done.” Speaking for 18 minutes, Biden appeared far more animated than he had the night before as he excoriated Trump for his “lies” and for waging a campaign aimed at “revenge and retribution.”

Fundraising for Biden increased the day of the debate according to his campaign to the tune of $27 million, in an attempt to increase the coffers, and to meet, or outpace Trump whose war chest increased to $141 million on the day he was convicted in a New York courtroom on 34 felony counts, to influence the 2020 election.

Biden himself, speaking at a fundraiser at the home of New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy said, “I understand the concern after the debate. I get it” and, “I didn’t have a great night. But I’m going to be fighting harder and going to need you with me to get it done.”

Even more succinctly the president added, ““I know I’m not a young man,” Biden said to cheers. “I don’t walk as easy as I used to. I don’t speak as smoothly as I used to. I don’t debate as well as I used to, but I know what I do know: I know how to tell the truth!”