Impeachment divides Dems as Pelosi stands by standards

Mr. Mueller

It was supposed to be the smoking gun, the one that felled the bad guy, and in this case it was Donald Trump, whose American presidency had turned, say his critics, into a circus-like whirlwind of executive orders that stranded travelling immigrants abroad, and sent their visiting relatives back to their home countries, who separated children from their parents, as they sought political asylum, in wirebound cubicles, and whose refusal to criticize white supremacists over the removal of a Confederate era soldier branded him a racist.

The list is extensive, and most of the president’s opponents, and the targets of his late-night tweets, and ire, Democrats, thought the Mueller report was the key to his removal from office; yet the report, by its nature was intended to get the facts, just the facts, as the old 60’s era television detective intoned into mid-century living rooms.

When the report, or to be exact the summary prepared by Attorney General William Barr was tilted in the direction of protecting Trump, and not the American public. While the Democrats are justified, in their cries of nepotism, the drama that lies before them is a many headed hydra that is as complicated as the Gordian knot.

Partisanship aside, the US Constitution gives Congress and the House of Representatives legal oversight on suspicious behavior by Trump and, by turns, his family members in their quest for power, and dominance, as they reshape the government and foreign policy; examples of which are son-in-law Jared Kushner looking to establish a secret back channel with Russia, that even they thought was a trap.

The self exoneration that the president intoned and that was strutted about by White House spokesperson, Sarah Sanders, gave all of the appearances of a banana republic and not the lofty republic planned by John Adams, and Thomas Jefferson, and the prolific James Madison.

The drama will now continue, but as the storm clouds gather, it’s apparent, as we noted before, that the Barr summary and the president’s subsequent self-exoneration are designed for his reflection, and all subsequent behaviors and statement radiate from that, including wanting to include a citizenship question on the next census, as a nativist effort to flush out illegal immigrants, the cause celebre of his 2016 campaign effort.

To the frustration of many, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell seems pledged to do the same, come hell, or high water, whichever comes first. Joined with Barr, whos is just the type of “corporate” AG, he wanted, Trump is on a roll, even as he stumbles.

Circling back we need to take a look at the following words from the report: “If we had confidence after a thorough investigation of the facts that the President clearly did not commit obstruction of justice, we would so state. Based on the facts and the applicable legal standards, we are unable to reach that judgment.”

What we see is a frightened man, whose main goal with the 2016 campaign was less about winning, than enhancing his empire, supporting earlier reports from Steve Bannon, former advisor that he was stunned into uncharacteristic silence when he heard that he had won, as his wife Melania burst into tears.

Later, in what most people have chuckled over was this report from Time Magazine” “According to Mueller, the president was despondent when Attorney General Jeff Sessions informed him that the special counsel had been appointed in 2017.

“This is the end of my presidency. I’m fucked,” the President said to Sessions.

“Even in its incomplete form, the Mueller report outlines disturbing evidence that President Trump engaged in obstruction of justice and other misconduct,” House Judiciary Chairman Jerrold Nadler said in a statement Thursday. “The Special Counsel made clear that he did not exonerate the President,” he added. “The responsibility now falls to Congress to hold the President accountable for his actions.”

“On Friday morning, Nadler issued a subpoena for the entire report and the “underlying materials.” He wrote in a statement that it is now Congress’ responsibility to determine the extent of the president and his associates’ alleged misconduct, said Time.

The Dems are divided on the issue and there was a Monday conference call from the Speaker of the House, and that summarized, by Nancy Pelosi, who holds the office, that caution was needed to ensure that the facts were obtained and in a deliberate process.

Ms. Pelosi

She did not rule out impeachment, but carefully noted,  according to The New York Times, “We have to save our democracy. This isn’t about Democrats or Republicans. It’s about saving our democracy,” Ms. Pelosi told the 172 members who participated in the 87-minute conference call, keeping the possibility of impeachment alive. “If it is what we need to do to honor our responsibility to the Constitution — if that’s the place the facts take us, that’s the place we have to go.”

Perhaps the best summary, we’ve seen is again, from Time, whose editorial opinion noted:

“No one wants to see this sad episode in our country’s history drag on, but the question of whether Americans conspired with the Russian government to influence a presidential election is far too critical to remain unanswered because information was concealed, destroyed or unavailable. There has been much discussion of Mueller providing Congress with a road map for investigation of obstruction of justice. But when it comes to coordination between the campaign and Russia’s government, Mueller seems to be suggesting the same thing: there is further work to be done. The conclusions in his report are prosecutors’ decisions, grounded in the stern requirements of the criminal law and the available evidence. But as Mueller noted, further evidence, whether it comes from investigation on the Hill or in ongoing federal and state criminal cases, could shed new light on our understanding of what took place. Attorney General William Barr may have exonerated the President, but Mueller didn’t.”

The American public may learn more when Mueller appears before the House Intelligence Committee, and his reasoning, but despite the demand for impeachment from Senator, and Democratic candidate, Elizabeth Warren, there is the problem of focusing all legislative energies on Trump and none, on the issues, that the Democrats were elected on, in the mid-term elections: health care, affordable housing and an increase in the minimum wage to ensure the health and well-being of working American families and individuals -- to abandon that mandate would be disastrous.

Plus, as The Hill reported, last month, “Starting impeachment proceedings seems unlikely to end in a Senate conviction given the two-thirds majority needed in a body Republicans control with a 53-47 majority. That makes it a tricky political proposition, especially as Democrats eye a 2020 election they think could end the Trump era and leave Democrats in control of Congress and the White House. That scenario would leave Pelosi with the chance at scoring some sweeping policy achievements on health care and climate change in her last years in Washington.”

Some observers have been fool-hardy enough to state that they don’t care, in their rush to purify the Oval Office, and also neglect the fact that if VIce-President, Mike Pence, who one wag noted was a “real politician” succeeded the presidency things could go far worse, especially for the LGBT community whose day is not done, despite marriage equality.

“I think my community would like to make sure we are legislating on the agenda that brought many freshmen here, and also making sure we get to the bottom of the Mueller report’s findings,” said Representative Chrissy Houlahan of Pennsylvania, a moderate freshman whose district had been Republican,” the Times added.

When added to the mix of the investigative efforts of Jerry Nadler and Elijah Cummings, Democratic House Oversight chair, we can add the Southern District New York, and that of the State of New York’s attorney general then there is enough, to be enough as they look at Trump Tower, Trump Trust, Trump Holdings, and the Trump Foundation.

Impeachment without the necessary work, and best practices, could also endanger the political lives of moderate Democrats, at a time, when they are most needed.

March Jobs Report continues to see-saw

Friday’s March Jobs Report from the Labor Department gave hope to the unbelievers of the US economy, and made others wary that while it was a strong outlook, there were storm clouds gathering for a pending recession, in the future. Others, as usual more sanguine, believed that the day of doom, predicted by some from the dismal February report, which gave pause to economists, and  lawmakers alike, was only a mirage.

The figure of 196,000 non-farm jobs gave true believers the conviction that it was all possible and that the future was strong, and with the unemployment rate holding steady at 3.8 percent, all was well.

For those that are still worried about what the last several reports have shown about low wages, still holding at 3.2 observers have turned themselves inside out, to see the silver lining.

Many have strained to see light at the end of a cloudy tunnel, and among them we see this:  “It’s a volatile number; it tends to bounce up and down,” Martha Gimbel, research director at the job-search site Indeed said. “What’s more important is that we’ve had six straight months above 3 percent.”

In a different vein, some say that  “the decline appears to be due to shifting demographics rather than underlying weakness in the job market, according to Andrew Chamberlain, chief economist at the career site Glassdoor” to Business Insider.

When ADP released its earlier report on private employment, of 129,000, some felt that the old trust in them as a bellwether of the Labor Department, might just prove to be true.

Joshua Wright, chief economist for iCIMS, said in an interview with Yahoo Finance that “One of the things that’s been most remarkable over the last 10 years has been just how steady the labor market expansion has been.” after  the addition of new jobs for the 101st consecutive month.

“Normally when you have an expansion go on this long, job growth dips into negative territory every now and then,” he said.

With revisions to both January and February, to 33,000 and January from 311, 000 to 312,000, the average gains are now at 180,000, nothing to sneeze at, but with no significant wage increase since the Great recession, there is now an average 4 cents increase resulting in an average hourly rate of $27,70.

Some have ventured various theories form the continued rise of the big box retailers, and the Hercules Amazon, to non-compete clauses, to those staying with the same employer not seeing any increase, and those changing jobs to get one.

None of these theories have been proven to be the central cause, and with the labor participation rate of just below 63 percent, the needle has barely moved, at a resulting 224,000.

Coupled with a much higher cost of living, and a lack of affordable housing, especially in urban areas, the income gap has proved to be a formidable challenge for working American families and individuals.

When adjusted for inflation, the Consumer Price Index is 2.4, lower than it needs to be and with consumer spending as the chief vehicle for economic growth, for the nation, there is still serious concern among economists.

There are some key growth areas, nursing has shown a continued growth, (seen as a service industry) and also a steady growth in software development, an area that has seen rapid growth with the increase in handheld devices and mobile technology, and not seen as one that will abate.

Health care has seen an increase of 49,000, and that old catch-all category “professional and business services” has increased to 34,000, but that also captures temporary agency workers, as well as those loosely assigned to the perimeters of the business community; so caution is urged.

Food and beverage, after the holiday splurge has taken on 27,000 new hires, and may see more in April after early income tax checks have been cashed.

From the ranks of the cheerleaders we have  this: “We think the labor market is the strongest thing in the U.S. economy right now,” said Luke Tilley, chief economist at Wilmington Trust, in a comment to  The New York Times.

Being all things equal, the economic news has been politicized, and while President Trump has tried to blame Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, for any slowdown, as many are predicting, the Times added, “But in recent months, economists have seen reasons to doubt the strength of the economy. The invigorating effects of the tax cuts enacted at the end of 2017 are expected to fade. Large overseas economies have slowed, in part a reaction to continuing trade tensions. And while the stock market has rallied since a rout at the end of last year, other important financial indicators — such as government bond yields — suggest that investors expect growth to moderate.”

There are also concerns about the GDP, with some forecasting that it will rise to 2.1 percent, with the Federal Reserve, saying it can come from 0.2, but to be noted it was over 2.9 in 2018.

Of equal concern is the current increase in layoffs that might temper and test even the best indicators and future predictions, as CNBC reported that “Layoffs hit their highest level for a first quarter in 10 years as 2019′s job market got off to a shaky start, according to a report Thursday from outplacement firm Challenger, Gary & Christmas.

“Total announced cuts hit 190,410, a 10.3 percent increase from the fourth quarter and 35.6 percent jump from the same period a year ago. The level was worst period overall since the third quarter of 2015 and the highest level for a first quarter since 2009 as the economy was still mired in the financial crisis.”

“Companies appear to be streamlining and updating their processes, and workforce reductions are increasingly becoming a part of these decisions, ” Andrew Challenger, vice president of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, said in a statement. “Consumer behavior and advances in technology are driving many of these cuts.”

Continuing, the report said that “The auto industry led by sector in March with 8,838 layoffs, followed by energy with 8,149 cuts. Financial firms were next with 4,884, while retail followed with 4,860. Retail has announced 46,061 cuts this year, an 18.5 percent decrease from the first quarter of 2018.

“Several indications, such as the number of companies filing for bankruptcy or closing operations, suggest we’re heading for a downturn. The recent proposal to close the southern border adds to the uncertainty and may contribute to more cuts as companies try to adapt,” Challenger said.”

As previously noted, there is the banner headline of jobs gained and also the more accurate household survey, but  “A more encompassing unemployment rate that counts discouraged workers as well as those holding jobs part time for economic reasons, often called the “real” unemployment rate, plunged to 7.3 percent in February from 8.1 percent in January. Those employed part time for economic reasons tumbled by 837,000 to 4.3 million while those completing temporary jobs fell by 225,000, which a Labor Department official said was a consequence of the government shutdown that ended in late January.”

This might seem as complicating the picture, but the behind-the-scenes look continues to show a mixed bag of highs and lows, especially in the area of low wages that make it hard, coupled with the layoffs to see March as a stellar rebound, giving us a good, but not great report, and a slow down can lead to a recession.

Add the specter of more layoffs, and the best that can be given is cautious optimism that leans toward the good, but not the spectacular; and the relentless partisanship coming from the White House, gives us pause - but Powell's’ pause in interest rate hikes gives the president what he wants, and if there is a nosedive, then he is blameless.

Trump's efforts to lead off on 2020 hit road blocks

Fresh from his self-declared exoneration and extrapolation from the Mueller Report, President Donald Trump jump started his 2020 reelection campaign, last week, using  his favored medium - a large scale political rally - complete with cheering crowds and MAGA hats, in the American state of Michigan; notable for contributing to the 2016 election loss by Hillary Clinton, a fact not overlooked by the Republican National Committee. 

Grand Rapids is a conservative town of mainly Dutch Reformed Protestants, (and home of Education Secretary, Betsy DeVos), and in contrast to religious conservatism ,or perhaps because of it, the rally held a carnival air, replete with an opening act: Trumps son, Donald, Jr, taking trash talking to a new low, as he pilloried freshman congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez as the crowd roared back “AOC sucks!”

When the president came to the stage, beaming under the blinding lights, like a rock star, the deafening applause rolled over him, giving him a beatific air.

Seizing upon either Ocasio-Cortez’s nervousness, or a mental blank,she fumbled some basic civics, in an interview very much like his father, Trump, Jr. had this to say: "Think about the fact that every mainstream, leading Democratic contender is taking the advice of a freshman congresswoman who three weeks ago didn’t know the three branches of government. I don’t know about you guys, but that’s pretty scary.”

"You guys, you’re not very nice," Trump Jr. said in response to the chant. "And neither is what that policy would do to this country."

Ocasio-Cortez is the new punching bag for the extreme right, almost outpacing Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, and the fact that she is not the Richelieu to elder lawmakers that Junior claimed, is beside the point since the intent is to win his father the White House for a second term.

The coda to the Michigan rally was the president's threat to close the Southern Border because Trump believes that Mexico is not doing enough to prevent the mass of political asylum seekers from Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador, and and that closing the border is the only solution to what he characterizes as an intolerable situation.

What would be intolerable is the jeopardization of over $1.7 billion in trade between the two countries, and the flow of Americans commuting to and from from the two countries for legitimate business purposes.

While Trump falsely touted the return of auto plants to Michigan at the rally, an event that was  already in the works, CNN reported on Tuesday that “The entire US auto industry would shut down within a week if President Donald Trump goes through with his pledge to close the US-Mexican border, according to a leading expert on the industry.

That's because every automaker operating an auto plant in the United States depends on parts imported from Mexico, said Kristin Dziczek, the vice president of industry, labor and economics at the Center for Automotive Research.

About 16% of all auto parts used in the United States, both at assembly plants and sold at auto parts stores, originate in Mexico. Virtually all car models in America have Mexican parts, she said. Because of that reliance, she said the auto industry would stop producing vehicles relatively.”

"You can't sell cars with missing pieces," she said. "You've got to have them all. I see the whole industry shutdown within a week of a border closing."

Then again there seems to be little thought of that from Trump, or his supporters, but the proposal shows that there he has little regard for the millions of working American families depending on an automotive paycheck.

In full campaign mode, Trump noted: ‘‘If they don’t stop them, we’re closing the border,’’ Trump said at an event in Florida. ‘‘We’ll close it. And we’ll keep it closed for a long time. I’m not playing games. Mexico has to stop it.’’

This, of course, builds on the backs of his anti-Mexican remarks during the campaign -- but now, extended to those from the three countries, the so-called Northern Triangle, and belies Mexican efforts to hold the asylum seekers, at bay, in Mexico, actions that have earned them the enmity of humanitarian organizations..

“Kevin McAleenan, the commissioner of US Customs and Border Protection, said that for the first time in more than a decade, his agency is ‘‘reluctantly’’ performing direct releases of migrants, meaning they are not turned over to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, they are not detained, they are not given ankle bracelets to track their movements, and they are allowed to leave with just a notice to appear in court at a later date,” said the Boston Globe.

Following the dots of campaign promises it’s easy to see the path the president is leading his base, and here is a sample of a reader’s comment from their coverage: “Our country is being invaded and the democrats are ignoring this crisis for the sole purpose of getting more people to vote for them. Tell me why its a good thing to have hundreds of thousands of unvetted people coming across our borders annually. Beside the huge cost the security risks are huge with the gang members, drug trafficers, (sic) human trafficers (sic) and even many from high risk mid eastern countries. Thank President Trump for looking out for Americans.”

And another: “It's a massive invasion on a sovereign country! Thank God you don't run the country!! no other country in the world would put up with assault on their border!! We owe the illegals nothing!! but we owe our hard working Taxpaying LEGAL citizens everything!! Its (sic) not our Responsibility to care of these unfortunate people! Its (sic) the responsibility of their government to offer basic needs and opportunity , to their own people!!! Hold them to it!! Shut the entire border down now!!! and maybe their corrupt and incompetent politicians will get the hint, or pay the consequences of their deliberate actions!!!!!!!!!!!”

What is not mentioned is that these asylum seekers are escaping gang violence, graft corruption, rape and other atrocities -- and that the American system of asylum is in need of desperate reform, and that closing the border would only increase the flow of illegal immigration, in the absence of the system, weakened or not..

In the space of a few days, the tone has changed, and “White House spokeswoman Sarah Sanders said the Trump administration sees Mexico “stepping up and taking a greater sense of responsibility” for dealing with the immigration flows that U.S. officials say are overwhelming ports of entry along the border.

“They have started to do a significant amount more. We’ve seen them take a larger number of individuals” and hold those who have asylum claims in Mexico while they are being processed in the United States, Sanders told reporters at the White House.

“We’ve also seen them stop more people from coming across the border so that they aren’t even entering into the United States. So those two things are certainly helpful and we’d like to see them continue,” Sanders said according to Reuters.

The softening of the more bellicose rhetoric that was heard last Friday included this tweet, from the president, ““After many years (decades), Mexico is apprehending large numbers of people at their Southern Border, mostly from Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador.”

Sanders, as usual, has blamed the Democrats on Tuesday, in this clip from White House reporter April Ryan from American Urban Radio Networks.

In response, Mexican president Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador has cited the need for “prudence” and said he wasn’t going to get involved in what he characterized as U.S. “electoral” polemics.

“We are helping” to regulate the flow of U.S.-bound migrants, Lopez Obrador said on Monday, adding that he sought “a policy of friendship with the government of the United States.”

In a tweet his foreign minister said, “"Mexico does not act on the basis of threats," unquote. And there's also a pretty real chance that this kind of move could backfire because it would have dire economic consequences not only for Mexico, but on the U.S. side of the border as well.

After warnings about the damage to trade between the two countries - Mexico is the third largest trading partner with the U.S., including this from Mitch McConnell, Senate majority leader: “Closing down the border would have potentially catastrophic economic impact on our country, and I would hope we would not be doing that.”

Trump’s waffling has now evolved to this: he will give Mexico one year, before he uses drastic measures, meaning, shutting down the Southern border.

As most have acknowledged, immigration is a key issue with his base, and as we have seen earlier, the battle to retain the White House is of primary importance both for the president and GOP leaders, after spending eight years outside the gates.

Looking for a triple Trifecta to grip the base was the recent promise to destroy Obamacare, that has helped millions of American families and individuals gain much needed medical care, and in some cases, life saving surgery. And, while the record shows that the legislation needed adjustments, in key areas, such as widely varying premiums, it also shows that Republicans were unwilling to work with the Democrats to do so.

The Senate was aghast when the president announced that healthcare was on the table again, and Democrats were gleeful that they would have an opportunity to shame the White House, on an issue that brought them to victory in the midterms.

The GOP efforts in the past have proved unsuccessful for more than six years, with the effort between Sens. Cassidy and Graham, being the leading bomb in 2017, despite Republicans gleefully  chanting as they gutted the individual mandate.

Trump has based this on December’s ruling by Judge Reed O’Connor that if the individual mandate was removed then the whole act was unconstitutional, yet NBC news opined: “If you think that this [ruling] doesn’t make any sense, you’re right. First of all, as amended by Congress, there is no longer any “mandate” to purchase health insurance — consumers have the choice to carry insurance or pay... nothing. And the argument that, if the non-actually-existent “mandate” is unconstitutional, the entire bill must fall is even worse. According to O’Connor, Congress “intended” to preserve the original mandate because “knew that provision is essential to the ACA.”

While public opinion is split on the merits of the ACA, most of the provisions of the law are very popular, even among Republican voters, and repealing without replacing as Susan Collins, senator from Maine has said, is unacceptable, as is poulagating the se of high deductible plans, joined to tax-free health savings accounts, as set aside money for medical expenses.

Seeing the writing on the wall was McConnell who told Trump that the Senate would not attempt another repeal of the legislation until after the 2020 elections.

No rate increase from Feds, pleasing Trump

To the delight of many, including President Trump, the report from the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Markets Committee meeting that ended Wednesday, said in its summary report that there were no plans to raise interest rates, a move that had been previously derided by Trump, as well as his denouement of Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

The news stoked an uptick, during Powell’s remarks, of the Dow, which shot up 200 points but, later dropped to 142, but, nevertheless, the White House is building on the news for the reelection campaign of the president.

As anyone who has taken a basic course in macroeconomics knows, the mandate of the Federal Reserve is to keep inflation beneath 2 percent, and to lower unemployment, a mandate that it has adhered to over decades.

Trump’s trashing of Powell as a threat to a healthy economy gave the injection of politics into the role of America’s central bank, and some have said there was a stare down between the two men - yet, the U.S. economy is on solid, if not spectacular ground, much like during the Obama years, and increasing employment, on a steady basis, just as Powell, (like former chair Janet Yellen), kept an even hand on the tiller, using data, not politics, to keep it there; and, ensuring, perhaps to the horror of the president, steady employment under his watch.

Rates are now between 2.25 percent and 2.5 percent, and are expected to stay that way, and with unemployment remaining low, despite the February Jobs Report that many economists and bankers see as typical for the month, those that predicted that there might be one in 2019 and maybe one more in 2020, are now looking pessimistic - and there is joy on Wall Street, as well as Main Street.

Yahoo Finance reported that “In keeping interest rates steady at the current target range of 2.25% to 2.5%, the Fed said that the labor market "remains strong" but said economic growth has "slowed from its solid rate in the fourth quarter."

“The Fed statement said indicators have pointed to "slower growth" of household spending and business fixed investment,” hinting at a slowdown in consumer spending and a corresponding slowdown in the GDP.

There is still a difference of opinion in predictions for the economy with the White House proclaiming 3.2 percent growth, and others seeing far less.

The New York Times reported that “The Fed now expects 2.1 percent growth this year, down from the 2.3 percent it forecast in December — and more than a percentage point less than the 3.2 percent growth the White House predicts. The outlook for 2020 is even more bleak, with the Fed now projecting growth of just 1.9 percent.”

If the devil is in the details, there is much to be seen, and “by signaling it will not raise rates without a clear change in conditions, the Fed is effectively giving Mr. Trump what he wants from monetary policy, but with a twist. The president has publicly pushed Mr. Powell to stop raising rates. But if the Fed is correct and growth falls well below 3 percent this year, without a single rate increase, it will be difficult for Mr. Trump to pin the blame on Mr. Powell,” they added.

Concern is still on the horizon for trade wars that Trump does not want to ease, and also the continued rejection by the British Parliament on Brexit, and the weakened, but slowly strengthening, Chinese economy; global concerns that darken an otherwise rosy outlook.

Looking at the FOMC report, it was clear that there would be no rate hikes “for 2019 — [and] came from an overwhelming majority of participants: 11 out of 17.”

The members opine were carefully laid on the now infamous dot plots, and they show that “for 2020, the median dot sits only 25 basis points above that level, telegraphing that only one rate hike could be in the cards through the end of next year,” said Yahoo Finance.

What is a dot plot, some ask - and Barron’s gave a brief description that can help that mythical person, the general reader: “For most of its history, the Fed did not tell the public where interest rates would go. Traders could make their own projections based on their readings of the economic data and their guesses about officials’ preferences, but the opinions of the people who actually set short-term interest rates were effectively a secret.

That changed seven years ago, thanks in large part to the efforts of Janet Yellen, then the Fed’s vice chair. As she explained at the time, the goal was twofold: Increased “transparency” would bolster the central bank from political attack, while the introduction of “forward guidance” would give monetary policy makers another tool to boost the economy.

Beginning in January 2012, the central bank has included regular summaries of what officials believe is the “appropriate” level and path of the Fed’s policy interest rate over the next several years. For the sake of equal representation of the Federal Open Market Committee’s members (as many as seven governors on the board in D.C., plus the 12 regional bank presidents), these summaries look like stacks of dots rather than lines or fan charts, hence the term “dot plot.”

This is not to say that there is infallibility, and Market Watch noted that “The dot plot was useful when the path of interest rates was always assumed to be higher. It doesn’t work as well when the direction of the next move is uncertain,” noted Kevin Logan, chief U.S. economist at HSBC.

Powell said last week he’s asked the FOMC’s communications subcommittee to look at the issue and its future issue.

Notably these “projections are a significant downward revision from the December FOMC meeting where policymakers raised by 25 basis points and said the economy could absorb "some further gradual increases." For comparison, the median dots in the December dot plot signaled two rate hikes for 2019 and a third in 2020.”

The partial government shutdown had its effect on the February Jobs Report, as well as the aforementioned political pressures, all that contributed to the fall for that month, despite those bankers, and observers, that saw it as a “pause” after the Christmas holidays and retail season.

Another source of concern was the unwinding of the balance sheet of Treasury securities, and mortgage-backed securities indefinitely, by up to $50 billion per month, that were part of the Central bank’s plan of  “quantitative easing” during the Recession to keep interest rates low and inject money into the economy, are now beginning an unwinding - a long held desire by Republican lawmakers.

“In May, the Fed plans on slowing the reduction of its holdings of Treasury securities. Currently the Fed is allowing redemptions on $30 billion of Treasuries a month, which it will slow to $15 billion.

The Fed says by the end of September, they will conclude the reduction of its securities holdings. A statement added that at that point in time, the Fed will have balance sheets that will "likely still be somewhat above the level of reserves necessary to efficiently and effectively implement monetary policy."

“With more clarity on the size of the balance sheet, the next step for the Fed will be deciding its ultimate composition. Some Fed officials have advocated for a more "neutral" balance sheet skewed toward shorter-term Treasurys in place of the Fed's current longer-term Treasury and agency debt and mortgage-backed securities holdings.”

Another change is to move from the traditional target rate of inflation from 2 percent to 3, a seismic move from the traditional pattern, but which is under serious consideration by its main proponent Richard Clarida, vice-chairman of the Reserve, who “is spearheading an internal strategy review to determine whether the Fed should start making up for below-target inflation during recessions and slow recoveries by allowing for above-target inflation during expansionary periods.”

Clarida laid out his plans late last month at the University Of Chicago Booth School Of Business at its monetary policy conference.

And though the review is still in its early stages, the Fed already seems to have embraced the idea that inflation might be allowed to exceed 2% without immediately triggering a tightening, something unheard of in previous decades.

Despite this dovish tone, the president and his staff are taking a full court press to make the strong economy the capstone of his reelection campaign.

“Trump’s presidency has been dotted with controversies, and he is a polarizing figure. As such, his political fortunes may be even more tied to the economic winds,” and “I think his reelection bid will live or die based on the economy,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics, to The Hill.

In turn Trump said to generous crowds in Ohio, “It's going to be really easy on the debate stage when they hit me with nonsense and I say, 'Really? But African American unemployment — the best it's ever been,’” he said in Lima. “Hispanic, Asian, women, everybody — it’s all the best it’s ever been.”

“How do you top that in a debate?” he said. “What are they going to say?”

With a stay on interest rates, and a solid, if not great economy, and debates on future economic growth, it may be a case that the 14 Democratic hopefuls are going to have to look beyond Trump’s tub thumping and see the realities of American lives, and that will truly be a debate.

February Jobs Report drops the bomb

In a surprise to almost everyone from barkeeps to bookies, the U.S. economy gained a paltry 20,000 jobs, in February, the smallest gain in over a year, in an economy that has been touted as the strongest ever --- from the White House, to sound and strong, from Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

With more than a few heads to scratch, who predicted 180,000, some wondered aloud at what happened, and one of them “Carl Tannenbaum, chief economist at Northern Trust in Chicago, said Friday’s news from the Labor Department was worrisome. “This is a disappointing report,” he said to The New York Times;. “I don’t think there’s any way to sugarcoat it.”

Some economists have other worries and are wary that there might be a recession, or at the very least a slowdown coming after the good times of recovery, yet others are saying that February is always a coin-toss coming after retail highs and lows of the holiday season, and smaller pocketbooks on both side of the shop, and that it’s more of a pause than a long lasting trend.

Americans are worrying about the economy and 56 percent say that it is slowing down, or entering into a recession, while 41 percent say it is growing. And, Gallup reported at the end of last month that 77% of Republicans think it’s growing, while 82% of Democrats say it’s slowing down or in recession.”

Before our analysis, let’s take a look at the good news: “3.4 percent year-over-year wage growth, the strongest in a decade. Revisions to previous months’ estimates added 12,000 jobs, bringing the average gains for December, January and February to 186,000. The official jobless rate fell to 3.8 percent, from 4 percent in January.”

“The report also showed signs that companies are paying up for employees in a tight market. Average hourly earnings for private workers rose 0.4 percent from the prior month, topping estimates, following a 0.1 percent gain. That indicates the economy may get a lift from wage increases at companies including Amazon Inc. along with Costco Wholesale Corp., which said Thursday it’s boosting starting wages,” reported Bloomberg News.

The question remains, as it has been for many months, is that enough to meet the needs of working Americans, and the answer, for many, is no.

  

CEO Jack Kelly writing for Forbes, gave some important qualitative observations, saying in part:

“From a microeconomics perspective, as the CEO of a major recruiting firm, I question some of the conclusions drawn from the data. We have not seen significant salary offers to job seekers. If the labor market is as tight as claimed, it would be reasonable to believe that job offers would go much higher to attract a smaller pool of applicants, but we are not seeing this happen. A tight job market would also require materially enhancing the compensation of existing employees in an effort to retain them in a tight job market. We are not seeing this trend happening either.”

But, then again, there was statistically significant change for some groups, and, “Among major worker groups, the jobless rate for Hispanics also declined sharply to 4.3 percent from 4.9 percent in January. The rate for African-Americans rose two-tenths of a point to 7 percent, while the level for whites declined to 3.3 percent from 3.5 percent,” cited CNBC.

Also a broader measure of employment that includes part-timers who would prefer full-time work and those too discouraged to search fell to 7.3 percent from 8.1 percent. “That’s a year’s worth of improvement in one month,” said G. Scott Clemons, chief investment strategist at the private bank Brown Brothers Harriman.”

The latter is the good news and provides a measure of stability -- if the trend can hold, and it was one indicator that bankers, economists and analysts alike have long been concerned about.

Bad weather and weak growth in wages have contributed to those leaning into hiring, but demurred in February, yet there are some signs of job expansion, by some companies, but just not enough of them, say some.

That wage increase, while still small, “may get a lift from wage increases at companies including Amazon Inc. along with Costco Wholesale Corp., which said Thursday it’s boosting starting wages,” continued Bloomberg.

Others are more sanguine; and there is a move by some companies to convert temps to permanent positions, according to staffing firm Adecco, but increases in that area, and others, vary by geographic region, with gains in one, and losses in the others.

The increase is not seen in rural areas, and the Times quoted the “Brookings Institution’s Hamilton Project [who] found that “rural counties — the majority of which were already struggling — seem to be increasingly left behind with employment barely growing over the last five years.”

For those readers looking for a formula here is one: “The jobless rate fell in part because of the vagaries the Labor Department uses to calculate the headline rate — there was an increase of 198,000 in those considered not in the labor force, while those classified as unemployed fell by 300,000 and the ranks of the employed decreased by 45,000, according to the household survey,” also reported CNBC.

It is important to know that recovering from any depression is patchy, and there are those that are more pessimistic.

“I don’t think you want to say that 20,000 is the new trend, but the trend probably is shifting down,” said Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York. “It’s hard to know with precision how much of a downshift there will be. We’ll see job growth better than this, but not as good as we saw last year.”

Showing optimism is “Ryan Sweet, head of monetary policy research at Moody’s Analytics Inc,” who noted, “There's no reason to panic. You average the couple months together and the jobs market is still doing well. Job growth will slow this year, as the economy begins to moderate. But 20,000 jobs is not what we’re going to be creating month-in and month-out.”

“William H. Stoller, chairman and chief executive of Express Employment Professionals, which is based in Oklahoma City,” said, “I’ve been in this business over 40 years, and February always presents kind of a pause.”

He is not alone, and Constance Hunter, chief economist at KPMG LLP, said on Bloomberg Television, “There was always going to be noise in this as a result of the shutdown.”

The partial government shutdown by President Trump also clouded the report and gave the lows, but also some false highs with industries like ride-sharing companies that had some federal workers driving to put food on the table, showing increases.

Bloomberg News may have summarized February the best: “Policy makers and economists are likely to wait for several months of weak hiring before concluding there’s cause for concern in the labor market. The figures also validate the Federal Reserve’s January decision to pause interest-rate hikes while awaiting signs of a more-persistent acceleration in inflation.”

Caution may be the watchword, and the increase in year-over-year wages to 3.4 may have encouraged some companies to remain bullish with hiring like “Ace Hardware, a cooperative of independently owned and operated hardware stores, expects an additional 160 stores will open this year, creating 2,500 jobs, said Kane Calamari, the company’s personnel chief.”

“The real challenge is the shortage of people,” said Tom Gimbel, chief executive of LaSalle Network, a staffing firm in Chicago, added, and that remains good for the more urban markets, but it seems based on prior reports that cautious optimism reigns.

Fallout of Cohen testimony leaves Dems at the crossroads

Last week’s testimony before the a House Oversight and Reform Committee, by Michael Cohen, a personal attorney and self-styled “fixer” for Donald Trump, drew over 13.5 million television viewers and made the case, for some, that this time, he was not lying as he had done in previous testimony to Bob Mueller, special investigator.

“I would argue he has less motivation to lie now than he ever did before. What does he have to lose?” Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Va.) told reporters amid a break in the hearing to vote. “He is already going to jail. He has been disbarred. His family is fractured. His future is gone. Maybe he can get a book contract out of it. I would argue he has no motivation to lie right now, none.”

The revelations of hush money paid to porn star Stormy Daniels, came to the fore as did his assertion that Trump falsified the worth of his holding downward to gain tax advantages, and vice versa, when the need suited him; along with using the Trump Foundation to avoid taxes, and a litany of abuses that many House Democrats say amount to obstruction of justice.

“Cohen testified extensively about Trump’s involvement in a scheme to pay off women who claimed to have had affairs with him during the 2016 campaign — in connection with which Cohen pleaded guilty to violating campaign finance law,” reported The Hill.

While there are those that smell blood in the water --- including the president, if his rant at CPAC is any indication -  the word impeachment is being said in a louder voice. Yet, and this is a big yet, can the Democrats afford to run this train to the station?

Yes, and no, say some and others say no ---- the most obvious history lesson, taking a rearward glance  --- has to be seen in 1998, when the GOP ruled, under Newt Gingrich, and the Dems, in a stunning rebuke got 6 seats, and President Bill Clinton was re-elected in a landslide.

Democrats were able to regain the House on a trifecta of issues: healthcare, voting rights and corporate finance reform; staying on script, with legislation is vital; and, becomes a real challenge after the partial government shutdown, when Trump wanted The Wall, and then the fallout by Rep. Ilhan Omar over her anti-Semitic remarks about our support for our long term ally, Israel.

And, if the president threatens to not cooperate, as he did at CPAC, and in the State of Union address, painting “any attempts by the House Democrats to perform their constitutional oversight duty as a threat the nation's security and prosperity,” then more is truly the better.

If as the more radical, at least vocal, members, have their way, Trump should be dragged from the White House, and placed in an orange jumpsuit. Pronto.

For some the sight might be, what was called a generation ago, “a Kodak moment”, providing even better optics than Watergate and the exile of Richard Nixon to California; yet, it would hamper the stately party of Roosevelt, as “getting” Trump - a miscalculation that, in part, helped to defeat Hillary Clinton.

The question remains is can there be two efforts, one to provide mandated Congressional oversight over real abuse, as evidenced by Cohen, and at the same time govern on the agenda that brought the Dems, and Nancy Pelosi, back to the helm?

Pure partisanship says “yes”, but a more nuanced effort, says “yes”, and then some; moves that show the much vaunted integrity of the Democratic party, but also to set the tone for the 2020 presidential campaign, while simultaneously governing on the elected agenda.

That tone of censure to those reflecting on someone whose behavior is that of a thug might play in some areas, but the best course is to tread carefully, and doggedly, as well as by careful timing: all essential ingredients should this balancing act succeed.

Then there is the specter of impeachment, which Pelosi has pushed to the back burner, a wise move considering that it would have no chance in the Senate, and the blowback could see the Democratic agenda begin to sink before it leaves port.

“Starting impeachment proceedings seems unlikely to end in a Senate conviction given the two-thirds majority needed in a body Republicans control with a 53-47 majority. That makes it a tricky political proposition, especially as Democrats eye a 2020 election they think could end the Trump era and leave Democrats in control of Congress and the White House. That scenario would leave Pelosi with the chance at scoring some sweeping policy achievements on health care and climate change in her last years in Washington.”

Far better to focus on the Congressional duty of oversight, rightly, while doing a 24/7 effort to stay on track with the legislative agenda and focus on what the Dems were voted in on, but, and this is imperative, to not neglect some glaring notes, for example, that “Cohen also revealed that he briefed then-candidate Trump as well as Ivanka Trump and Donald Trump Jr. on efforts to build a Trump Tower in Moscow a half-dozen times during the presidential campaign,” a key revelation, since Candidate Trump denied any efforts to build there.

In the eyes of the law, there is more: “Though it’s unclear whether Donald Trump and other Trump Organization officials like Trump Jr. were aware that the payments to Daniels and Karen McDougal, another woman who says she had an affair with Trump, violated campaign finance laws that make it illegal to make an unreported donation of more than $2,700 to a candidate in a general election, Cohen acknowledged under questioning from Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA) that the hush payments scheme is akin to a criminal conspiracy.”

That became the tipping point for many viewers, but it also sets the stage for much more: “Democrats on the House Judiciary Committee unleashed a sprawling probe of President Trump's family, campaign, business and administration on Monday that includes more than 80 requests for documents,” said The Hill.

In the aftermath of the Cohen testimony, “The investigation under Judiciary Chairman Jerrold Nadler (D-N.Y.) will focus on three key areas: obstruction of justice, public corruption and abuses of power. Nadler rolled out the expansive investigation less than a week after the president’s former attorney Michael Cohen delivered explosive public testimony against him on Capitol Hill.

Democrats will be looking at those involved in the June 2016 Trump Tower meeting between Trump campaign officials and a Russian lawyer linked to the Kremlin, the Trump Organization's plans to build a Trump property in Moscow and a scheme to pay off two women who alleged they had affairs with Trump before the 2016 election.”

All of this is separate and apart from the Mueller investigation and another one from the Southern District of New York on Trump corporate business holdings, creating an extensive web that the president will have to fend off, as he sees attacks coming from all sides.

With predictions as common as noses, the air in Washington and New York is peppered with subpoenas, and the future is all that can be called our own - for now.