Iowa or bust say Dems

It’s all hands on deck for the Iowa primary Monday as Democratic hopefuls look to make in an area that is often seen as a bellwether for the eventual candidate. There is also, with the background of the impeachment trial of President Trump as more than an incumbent and the man to beat.

Beating Trump may not be an easy sell nationwide, but for the Democrats it is a cause celebre to see how they can end what they see as a travesty, on all fronts.

Not far behind is how the party can win --- will it be for a progressive candidate such as Bernie Sanders who is now neck-in-neck with Joe Biden, who along with political neophyte Pete Buttigieg are focusing on the centrist position, that progressives see as a losing strategy to reclaim the White House.

Coming in close is Elizabeth Warren who took a tumble in the polls with her Medicaid For all position, which many pundits are seeing as a second choice for some who might feel disenfranchised with Sanders.

An AP report quoted her as saying: "I'm the one who can pull our party together," Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren told supporters on a telephone call, suggesting her rivals could not. “I’m the one who is going to pull us all in to give us the ideas that we can all run on. The one who says both inspiration and inclusiveness.”

Adding a stronger note is Amy Klobucahar who is becoming iconic with America’s heartland and its rural areas, the nation’s breadbasket.

Demographics are also playing a strong role for the septuagenarian Sanders as he has harnessed the youth vote along with the “Bernie Bros” hanging ten from the 2016 election.

Biden is much stronger with older voters and also the much needed black voter who tends to not only feel that he has the experience, but also his bonding as Barack Obama’s vice-president.

Warren has youthful support but her strong and effective organization is a major plus, and her very detailed website that has garnered her kudos from media pundits as well as supporters, along with a formidable energy level coupled with a strong resume on economic issues, that many working and middle class families face, even in a strong job market, albeit one with low wages, 2.9 percent year-over-year as we saw at the end of 2019.

Mayor Pete has garnered a lot of bucks especially from the LGBT community, but his moribund standing with black voters - only 2 percent nationwide, in the shadow of mishandling police and community relations in South bend, In. do not bode well, since their vote has been essential in presidential elections since the 1960s.

His failure to connect with local black leaders is telling as is his run around answering direct questions, giving more credence to running on a personal narrative of being a gay man, serving in the military, and his youth -- all of which don’t seem to be enough.

A recent Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll has Sanders at 27 percent of democratic primary voters and with Biden at 26 percent, there is a virtual tie.

“The Journal/NBC News poll surveyed 428 registered voters who said they would vote in a Democratic presidential primary or caucus. The poll was conducted Jan. 26-20 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.74 percentage points,” according to the Journal.

Biden is popular with those votes under 50, and older, and the poll revealed that Sanders has not made a “dent with older primary voters,” according to a Republican pollster Bill McInturff, along with Jeff Horwitt, a Democrat, they also noted.

Biden is polling with 52 percent of black voters as their top choice, an increase from 46 percent this past summer.

Besides the numbers there are still the issues - with many focusing on climate change, 33 percent; abortion at 11 percent, and 12 percent gun regulations, according to the poll.

Klobuchar has been on the tail end of the polls as well, as the voters, and she seems determined to get to New Hampshire, but she also seems to not have caught on with voters, despite some earnest appeals, and living down a reputation of being tough on staffers, replete with screaming and temper tantrums.

She is enormously popular in her home state of Minnesota and has garnered support as a moderate who gets things done, but she faces some more recent controversy.

Shadowing Pete with revelations about policing and the black community in Minneapolis, in an interview with FOX TV she claimed she had no knowledge of questionable evidence in the conviction of a black teen shooter, on shaky evidence.

MPR News reported on Monday that “Civil rights activists and legal experts challenged Sen. Amy Klobuchar’s claims that she was unaware of questionable evidence and police tactics used to send a young black teen to prison for life when she was a top Minneapolis prosecutor.

“Even if Klobuchar was not familiar with every detail of the case, “what can she say about tolerating prosecutors who routinely described black and inner city as morally inferior to white and suburban?” asked Michael Friedman, executive director of the Legal Rights Center in Minneapolis,” added the report.

In an interview with “Fox News Sunday,” Klobuchar denied that she had knowledge of any evidence that would call the conviction into question. But much of what The Associated Press found while investigating the case of Myon Burrell, now 33, would have been available to her office at the time.”

There is a polite discussion on of a political realignment among some old-school pols, veterans of the Obama years, yet for many, especially younger voters that is now the past, or even passé as Trump had changed not only the face of the presidency but also the legal positions that offered protection for all Americans, yet ironically came from the centrist position of Obama.

If that seems like a conundrum, then it is: how to build on the past success of those years and make a left turn to protect much of what was achieved.

Health care is still on the front burner and it was what helped, in part topple, Kamala Harris and now Warren, but many saw that as less of a loyalty badge from Sanders and more of a way to siphon voters from his camp should the need arise, but for some she may have overplayed her hand.

Climate Change is an issue mostly for the young, but as we have seen with the fires in Australia, neglecting it can wreak havoc.

Most candidates have steered clear of abortion, yet for many women, especially in the South, or in Northern rural area, with only Catholic hospitals as a choice, for those that need one -- since not every baby can be brought to term, the issue is present, especially with the recent laws from Alabama, created to hit the Supreme Court docket.

Iowa for all it’s much vaunted appeal can be unpredictable and in a time when no one knows who will win, it’s up to 200,000 Iowans to at least show a glimpse of who might win, but according to the Associated Press: “If anybody tells you they know who’s going to win, either they’ve got a whisper from God or they're loony because nobody knows,” said Deidre DeJear, who announced her support for Warren on Monday and was the first black woman to win a statewide primary in Iowa.”

Impeachment and partisanship meet in Trump trial

For the third time the United States has impeached a president, Donald Trump, and has entered a legal version of the Bermuda Triangle, in  an era where partisanship reigns, or perhaps more accurately rules, with accusations, counter charges, and tweets from the White House and a president known for his thin skin, screaming, “witch hunt” and another move from the “do nothing” Democrats, while in fact they have done the one thing that many of its critics wanted, impeaching Trump.

The trial, beginning on Tuesday with opening arguments, is a gateway to the victims of Potomac Fever, as the ranks swell, and Trump has asked, Harvard law professor Alan Dershowitz to join his defense team.

His position that there needed to be a crime in order for impeachment was refuted by one of his own law school students, Frank Bowman  a University of Missouri law professor and author who, according to a Chicago Tribune report said, “Its comically bad. Dershowitz either knows better or should.”

Stonewalling is certainly not unknown in American politics, but the White House has become the master of the game with misusing “executive privilege” to prevent key witnesses from testifying to holding necessary documents, that prompted Chuck Schumer, Senate minority leader to formally ask for all pertinent documents.

While much of America rolls its collective eye at the proceedings, many are watching to see the much used term of “Democracy at work” --- and to see the GOP, under Senate Majority leader, Mitch McConnell pledge to subvert the process in Trump’s favor, and do a one-night, at best, that would last long into the night, when most Americans are asleep.

Some wonder if this is what the framers of the Constitution intended, but it seems that those bewigged and knee breached men wanted was a broad frame to wrap around behavior that met political malfeasance, and not criminal, despite the assertion of Dershowitz.

With support from James Madison, the impeachment process was considered necessary, and political, as a check on the abuse of power by the chief executive, and words such as “impunity” and “perfidy” were added by others, in what was clearly delineated as a political process.

Keeping that in mind, the result hammered out in the 1787 Convention clearly supports the assertions by the House of Representatives against Trump.

While the 53-47 Republican majority in the Senate gives less chance of a removal from office, the obligation was clearly obligated by the lower House, and while Speaker Pelosi received her share of criticism by progressives, many of whom confused impeachment with removal from office, the pattern and path work today is as intended in 1787.

What we may not see is a design - broad as it was intended from the Trump defense team, but Tuesday’s pressure to allow some witnesses and documents suggest that McConnell is seeing some pressure from GOP senators to provide more legal cohesion.

A recent poll revealed that 69 percent of Americans favored Trump’s removal from office and 58 percent believe that he had abused power when he witheld military aid from Ukraine, unless there was an investigation of Hunter Biden, former Vice President Biden’s son for corruption, a charge that has proven baseless.

Later on Tuesday, the Senate rejected Schumer’s amendment requests, “and Democrats continue to seek documents about a series of four calls March 27 from Trump’s personal lawyer, Rudy Giuliani, to the State Department switchboard. The calls came at a time when Giuliani was organizing a campaign to remove Marie Yovanovitch, the former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine. Another document Democrats seek is a cable that William Taylor, the top U.S. diplomat to Ukraine, sent to Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to describe concerns about withholding $391 million in military aid from Ukraine,” reported the right leaning USA Today.

“The State Department has not produced a single document in response to the congressional subpoena,” said Rep. Val Demings, D-Fla., one of the managers prosecuting the president.

“Jay Sekulow, one of Trump’s defense lawyers, said courts have long recognized executive privilege to protect the confidentiality of communications with the president. Sekulow argued that the privilege also applied to communications between the president’s aides, as they formulate advice.”

“Sekulow called it “a dangerous moment for America” if Trump couldn’t assert executive privilege and defend the claim in federal court.”

As if to paraphrase, or provide a coda to this opinion, Trump and company want a swift end to the trial so that he can go back to holding rallies and name calling and denying the facts, set forth by people such as Lev Parnas, and aide to Rudy Giuliani, the president’s personal attorney, and former Ambassador to the Ukraine, Masha Yovanovich, and Alexander Vindman, all from the Administration who have clear evidence that the bribe, for there is no other term for it to the Ukrainian president.

The speed that Trump wants is a reversal from a full trial seeking vindication to realizing that if witnesses do come forward he could bring what the Wall Street Journal called “unpleasant surprises”.

What might happen is anyone’s guess in the fight to the finish about what might happen, even without removal, but an indication of what that might be seems to belong to conjecture, but it’s safe to assume that even more of the same mix of personal attacks, weakening the relationships with America’s allies, and the same underhanded tactics that have weakened America’s faith in good governance will continue.

2019 ends with a repeat of low wages for U.S. job market

The December Jobs Report for 2019 on Friday was supposed to be another hurrah moment of the U.S. economy, and a mainstay for President Trump’s reelection campaign in what has now become a familiar chess game to advance the board to rally the base.

It was also supposed to provide a greater and steadying influence to that mythical “unseen hand” of laissez faire economics, proving that the nation was well on its way to underscore a reversal of fortune from the Great Recession.

In one fashion, it did: unemployment was at 3.5 percent, but only 145,000 jobs were gained said the U.S Bureau of Labor and Statistics, just enough to sustain reasonable job growth, but not enough for a total surge but leaving any moves by the Federal Reserve to make a change in interest rates.

145,000 does not a revolution make, and “Inclusive of revisions, payrolls increased by 2.1 million overall in 2019 and averaged about 176,000 per month, representing the slowest pace of job additions since 2011. In 2018, job gains had averaged at 227,000 per month,” reported Yahoo Finance.

That alone, was a downer for some economists, bankers and market observers, but in this middling report there was some cause for relief, if not outright joy, because the the better gauge, the U-6 underemployment rate “which also includes discouraged workers no longer seeking jobs and part-time employees seeking full-time work” fell to 6.7%.

As Yahoo Finance noted, “This level was lower than any point since at least 1994, or as far back as Bloomberg data tracks. Peter Tchir, head of macro strategy for Academy Securities, called this “the one impressive number” in Friday’s report.”

If there was a soundtrack for December, it might be Peggy Lee crooning, “Is That All There Is,” with wages still taking a downward trend, and bobbing up occasionally, for a small gasp of air, but with a yearly round out of only 2.9 percent over the year, this makes for an uneven report, at best, and as we have shown before, robs some, while paying some others, and defying economic standards that say wages should trend higher for a tight labor market.

“It’s easier to get a job than a raise in this economy,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton to The New York Times.

“Consumer spending is a pillar of the economy, and it depends on income growth. Over the past 12 months, wages grew just 2.9 percent. That was substantially below the 3.3 percent average in 2018,” they added.

“Something that the Fed has been humbled by is how little wage acceleration there’s been,” Ms. Swonk said, referring to the Federal Reserve.”

The good news, tempered by higher housing and medical costs, is “The labor squeeze has helped workers at the lowest end of the pay scale, giving their wages a push that exceeds the average increase. Minimum-wage increases across 21 states and 26 cities and counties this year could further help pull up paychecks at the bottom,”

Before Friday’s report ING said that the “The Labor market slack is greater than the unemployment figure alone’ meaning wage growth will remain subdued.”

Adding to Swonk’s statement, they opined that, “Having peaked at 3.4% year on year in February, wage growth has edged lower through 2019 despite the unemployment rate being at the lowest level since the late 1960s.

Conventional wisdom, according to the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, “the vast majority of Districts continued to note difficulty hiring driven by a lack of qualified applicants as the labor market remained very tight.”

One theory the Times proposed: “One argument is that companies are satisfying workers with improved benefit packages – medical, pensions, vacation days – and are being more restrictive on salaries. However, according to the employment cost index report, benefit growth is in fact underperforming wage & salary growth.”

While no one can break out the booze, as the lyrics suggest, but since consumer spending is the backbone of the U.S. economy, there are bound to be concerns, even with forthcoming revisions.

From an analytical stance, ING added, “if we look at employment as a proportion of working age population we see that while the ratio has been improving, it remains well below the pre Global Financial Crisis peak and is in fact still below the levels experienced in the recessions of the early 1990s and the early 2000s.”

Moving to labor force participation, we see some sidelined action, that was not intended, since the increase, again, not at pre-recession levels, has moved some off the bench, and according to The New York Times, “Nearly three-quarters of new hires have come off the sidelines.”

“The unemployment rates for groups that have tended to receive a smaller share of the expansion’s rewards — high school dropouts, African-Americans and Latinos — have also dipped since December 2018,” they stressed.

“Many of the new entrants have been women, who now make up a majority of the nonfarm payroll for the first time in nearly a decade and dominate sectors that are expanding fastest, like health care,” but these are still in more traditionally female roles, such as nurses, home health aides, what another generation called “Pink Collar Jobs.”

“Their participation in the labor force, though, still lags rates in most European countries, which tend to offer better parental leave and child care options,” showing that America still has a long way to go for social and economic equity, and despite the increase in November’s LFP of 63.2 and the hint in May of 62.8, there is a drop back to 3.5.

Some economists see these women, who are at their peak earning years from 25 to 54 years old, are by their mere presence, offer a modicum of assurance, even while controlling for their European counterparts.

There is good news however, and a hit was the hiring peak in retail of 41,000 jobs, plus the aforementioned gains in health care of 28,000, and the addition of  leisure and hospitality of 40,000 jobs, for December. But, recent store closings, such as Bed Bath and Beyond, and Macy's, among others, could reverse those gains.

On the down side was manufacturing, losing at 12,000, but construction did increase to 30,000, according to an analysis of new government data by the Associated General Contractors of America, but Labor reported it nearly unchanged at 20,000.

Not so fast say others, even with a helicopter view of December, “Mining and manufacturing also struggled. Industrial goods and automobile manufacturers were the hardest hit, in part because of the trade war, said Andy Challenger, a vice president at Challenger, Gray & Christmas, a Chicago based outplacement firm that tracks layoff announcements,” in Chicago, in an interview with the Times, and Bloomberg News Report.

He also pointed out, as seen above, that people are still getting laid off and losing their jobs.

Killing of Iranian general increases U.S. divisions

The news of the attack on the American Embassy in Iraq has created a windstorm of concern and panic for the United States, and also for Americans, then the sudden news of the retaliatory killing of Iranian General Sulemani ordered by President Trump, which resulted in more than furrowed brows as the country braced itself for Iranian retaliation for the killing of their key official that some have likened to an assassination of the head of the CIA.

The gravity of the situation is exacerbated by what many fear is a bumbling attempt by the president, unschooled in foreign policy, and from a White House where most often cooler heads have not prevailed.

A closer examination by the U.S. dailies has revealed a cumbersome initial retaliation from the White House, for the December death of an American contractor, one that hit two countries with 24 reported casualties, and an undeclared amount of collateral damage.

The U.S. Army, under Secretary of Defense Mark Esper, misunderstanding the situation on the ground, gave weight to the law of unintended consequences, about Iraqi opposition towards the Iranian coalition with scant knowledge of the Iraqi and Iranian partnership, which the Iraqi citizens objected to, and was hostile to; but, after the retaliation, for the contractor's death, that many saw as overplay, that anger was transferred to America, that peaked with the embassy attack, which from many accounts seemed to be tacitly permitted by local Iraqi officials, and which evaporated shortly afterwards.

In short, the American government, over several decades, has often gravely misunderstood the Middle East, and its group identity, and that they, in effect, have their own implicit understanding, that says when one country is attacked, the others also not only feel the tremors, but, by proxy, retaliation.

As The Guardian reported, “The killing will be viewed by many inside Iran, and among its Shia regional allies, as an act of war, and Suleimani as a martyr whose violent death must be avenged in kind. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, and Mohammad Javad Zarif, its foreign minister, have already indicated as much. They will use the assassination to rally wavering support for the regime.”

At the beginning of his administration, Trump’s critics felt that if an international crisis were to appear, he would bungle it, and now having seen a number of his ham-fisted actions with other countries, (plus name calling), of leaders from China to North Korea, and closer to home, Canada, those critics are justifiably worried.

The presidential penchant for bellicose rhetoric, via Twitter, will not do him, or the United States, any good, and his threat to bomb Iranian cultural sites, was another unwise statement.

Whether or not Esper's announcement, on Tuesday, that this would not occur, as  a violation of the laws of war, (in response to a reporter’s question), or a rescindment by Trump alone, remains unclear; but, yet again, this is symptomatic of the reckless statements from the president.

Secretary Esper

Of equal concern is the attitude of our allies, who are poised to receive just as much blowback in the form of an attack on their military sites.

As a coda to this concern is the statement from our oldest ally, England while noting that he [Sulemani] was a precarious and dangerous person, orchestrating violence, in the region, but also calling for a "de-escalation from all sides".

Characteristically, Prime Minister Boris Johnson was not told of the attack; and in a report by BBC News, it was reported that “Tory MP Tom Tugendhat said there was a "pattern" from the current White House not to share details with its allies, which was a "matter of concern".

The former chairman of the Commons Foreign Affairs Committee added: "I have long believed the purpose of having allies is so we can surprise our enemies, not each other.”

Of equal concern were statements from “Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn [who] said earlier that the "US assassination" was an "extremely serious and dangerous escalation".

“Mr Corbyn said the UK "should urge restraint" from both Iran and the US - and called for the government to "stand up to the belligerent actions and rhetoric coming from the United States".

He added: "All countries in the region and beyond should seek to ratchet down the tensions to avoid deepening conflict, which can only bring further misery to the region, 17 years on from the disastrous invasion of Iraq."

“The acting leader of the Liberal Democrats, Sir Ed Davey, said Iran was governed by "a brutal regime", but accused President Trump of "yet again radically and recklessly escalated tensions in an area where peace-keeping was already on a knife edge".

Closer to home, Congressional Democrats, it was learned, were also not told of the plan to kill Soleimani, causing even an even deeper partisan divide, against the background of the impeachment.

“I haven't seen intelligence that taking out Soleimani was going to either stop the plotting that was going on or decrease other risk to the United States,” said Adam Schiff, the House Intelligence Committee chairman on CNN’s “State of the Union.”

Of course, the Iran response is of great concern, there are a number of choices retaliation can take: assassination of a U.S. official or one of its allies, or a cyber-attack on the banking system of one, or both.

“Iran has an alternative range of political tools that could be deployed against its arch-foe. It is likely it will try to channel Iraqi anger over the use of its territory for the assassination of Suleimani and leading Iraqi militiamen into a concerted bid to push US forces, diplomats and contractors out of Iraq altogether. Recent Iraqi street protests against Iran’s overweening influence may now be eclipsed by a bigger struggle against the US and its much-resented importunities,” added The Guardian.

On Main Street tongues are wagging that this is a ruse by Trump to deflect from his impeachment and pending trial in the Senate, but some feel that may well reflect the law of unintended consequences than reality.

Also, in that vein, on the opposite side of the political aisle, The New York Times reported on Tuesday, that for Democratic candidates, Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders, the conflict gives them an opportunity to increase their polling, especially for the former who has extensive foreign policy experience as Vice-President in the Obama administration, and for the latter his anti-war stance, and his vote against the war on Iraq.

Their divergence can help cast them as stalwarts in a campaign that has not always discussed foreign policy in depth. But, it can also backfire for those voters that want a less dovish approach from Sanders.

“A CNN poll from late November found that 48 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters thought Mr. Biden was best equipped to handle foreign policy; Mr. Sanders was a distant second at 14 percent.

Mr. Biden, who chaired the Senate Foreign Relations Committee when he represented Delaware, is perhaps at his most fluent and comfortable when discussing international affairs, and he has made that issue a centerpiece of his message in a race that has been largely limited to domestic debates,” said the Times.

In an ever evolving story, National Public Radio, on Monday reported that, “In a letter to House Democrats, Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., called last week's drone airstrike against Iranian Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani "provocative and disproportionate," saying the strike "endangered our servicemembers, diplomats and others by risking a serious escalation of tensions with Iran."

“Pelosi said the House will vote later this week on a resolution under the War Powers Act to prevent Trump from acting against Iran after 30 days unless Congress votes to authorize further military operations.”

Impeachment of Trump reveals Pelosi's masterful touch

Unless you have been under a rock for the last week you know, as well as the postman, that President Donald Trump has been impeached by the U.S. House of Representatives; a move that was urged by progressives, and those from the left of the Democratic party, but was not an A-1 target by Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, reluctant to imperil those moderate Democrats in district that love him, but also as a veteran of the Clinton Impeachment, as she saw a surge of support for the embattled president as he took a second term, and did not want to see the same for Trump.

With the whistle blower's alarm about the July 25 call to Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky it no longer become an option, but a requirement, for the 79 year- old lawmaker as she not only steered the ship, but also a course carefully crafted to not only protect moderate Dems but also to show that the Party could legislate, as well as bring charges against an errant and egregious president, as he tried to arm twist the young president of a U.S. ally in the cold war to contain Russian aggression.

Joined to the mandate of the U.S. Constitution, and with requisite patriotism, the now delay in serving the papers of impeachment to the Senate have showed the mettle of the Speaker and the fact that she is the lady of the hour, shoring up a reputation, that months before seemed at risk, and now, underscores that she is the master of the game with her adroit handling of the process; forcing both the president and Majority Leader Mitch McConnell in the Senate to put up or shut up - on a process that she is dictating; or in other words, she has them in a vise.

“I was one of them; I thought it was time for new leadership,” said one of those freshmen, Representative Dean Phillips of Minnesota. “And I’ve got to tell you, thank goodness. Thank goodness that we have Nancy Pelosi speaking for the House of Representatives because I do not think there is a better, more qualified, more principled person for these circumstances,” reported The New York Times.

As they added, “When news of Mr. Trump’s pressure campaign broke, and Ms. Pelosi decided she could hold off no longer, she involved herself in every aspect of the impeachment inquiry. She met nearly every day — sometimes twice a day — with the leaders of the six committees that were already investigating the president on an array of matters.”

Some in the media have advocated for a blitzkrieg of ads about Trump across the country, but Pelosi’s methods are cheaper, and offer a more targeted away of attack.

Trump’s rages are also part of the plan: puncture his well-known ego, and damage his legacy, since he will always have impeachment on his record. The idea that he will be remembered, as “Oh, yea, he was the one that got impeached,” must hover over him, even as he beds down in the Executive Mansion each night.

The republican majority in the Senate seems to be as worried as rattlesnakes in a bag writhing to be free, as Pelosi pokes the bag with another stick, making them shiver.

Trump, who wants a short trial, is obviously worried, even as he creates rallies across in his strongholds, to shore up the base and denigrate Pelosi, all the while showing nervousness, towards her, with angry rhetoric blared from Twitter, and the now infamous letter to the Speaker, that seemed to have not been vetted.

While Pelosi governs on principle, she is crafty enough to know when to end the stalemate, and call the game. Pundits meanwhile are pondering if her actions can lose the majority in the House, or have it in the Senate. Standing on principle and past accomplishments, she has said that matters like health care are more important.

Taking a closer look, there is also this quote from the Times, ““We don’t get to choose how history remembers us,” said Representative Gerald E. Connolly, Democrat of Virginia, who compared Ms. Pelosi to Diogenes, the Greek philosopher who was said to have wandered Athens with a light, searching for an honest man. “Of course she’s going to be an inspiration because of this. Somebody had to be that person with the light — even if it was a lonely challenge.”

Some may have missed an underlying motive from the Speaker: push independent, or undecided voters, in the direction of the Democrats, and show them that while the impeachment occurred, they could also rule, and notable on the reformulated NAFTA, now the USMCA, and protect, and this is equally important, union workers and farmers, both groups that Trump won over in 2016.

While no observers, or lawmakers expect that the Senate will move to remove Trump from office, McConnell’s statements that he will work hand in hand with Trump reveals that this is not going to come even remotely close to a fair, if not valid trial, despite statements otherwise.

“And in fairness, when I heard that I was disturbed,” Lisa Murkowski, Republican lawmaker from Alaska, said to KTUU, in her home state, before describing that there should be distance between the White House and the Senate in how the trial is conducted. “To me it means that we have to take that step back from being hand in glove with the defense, and so I heard what leader McConnell had said, I happened to think that that has further confused the process.”

The cries of “witch hunt “rebound around the Senate, showing tremors, if not fault lines in  the Senate chambers, and hovering in the background, like Richelieu, is Attorney General Barr, who has shattered any semblance of subjectivity, and giving support to those members who feel that the tripart character of American rule of law is truly imperiled.

November Jobs numbers high, but wages still low

Aided and abetted by the return of over 413,000 General Motors strikers the U.S. economy hit a headline grabbing 266,000 non-farm jobs in Friday’s report by the Labor Department, for November, giving bragging rights to President Donald Trump in his bid for reelection, and a push back against the Democrats, in the court of public opinion, and their path towards impeachment.

A euphoric Trump tweeted, “It’s the economy, stupid,” and the White House website released an equally euphoric statement, without the invective.

“Because of the Trump Administration’s pro-growth policies, high labor demand is leading to increased employment and growing wages as businesses raise pay to attract workers,” it noted.

On the economic forefront, Friday’s news also got considerable support from some economists, and exceeded their polled predictions of an increase of 180,000, plus an extended round of hurrahs from observers.

“I think that this report is a real blockbuster,” said Daniel Zhao, senior economist at the career site Glassdoor. “Payrolls smashed expectations,” reported The New York Times.

There is still considerable slack in one key area - wages  - which while rising year-over-year by 3.1 percent, only increased 0.2 for November, a sum that is statistically inconsistent with a recovery - especially one that is 11 years old.

Most of that wage increase is seen on the lower level job scale, and especially in the service sector, where workers are subjected to long hours, often on their feet, and performing messy, and often dangerous duties.

Getting to a mid-level income has become hard, and often the obstacles by age, gender and race are compounded by downsizing and moving employees off the payroll and to contractor status, leaving many struggling.

The more accurate U-6 report, which shows both discouraged workers and those that are stuck in part-time jobs was 6.9, an increase from the October rate of 6.5 percent, and was 7.3 in July and August, showing only a slight improvement.

Labor Force Participation Report showed another dip, albeit slightly from 63.3 percent to 63.2 percent giving meager encouragement to those not compromised by age, or gender, but did reflect a growing increase in older baby boomers who are working long past retirement age, in an era of not only income inequality, but also growing housing costs.

There has been a brief reversal in labor force participation, for one city - Chicago, and in a recent report from the Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning, showed an increase in LFP - excluding 16 to 24 year olds - by one percent for the 25 to 45 year old age range; a slight increase than for Boston, Los Angeles, New York and Washington, DC.

A less clear, and highly debated, estimation of who is working remains the subject of debate for many professional economists, and as we have seen there is a distinct gender gap, with more women entering the workforce than men, partly attributable to the lowered wages, but also the focus on service jobs, where men are more reluctant to accept.

The wage gap is still ironic considering the tight labor market, where usually employers give higher wages to keep them from leaving, but even with greater competition by employers for employees, those seeking highly skilled areas are feeling the pinch, since it seems that most are working, yet there is some light for those who are working seasonally, in the hope of permanent status.

“Historically, about 4 percent to 7 percent of seasonal workers are hired, said Amy Glaser, senior vice president of the staffing firm Adecco. This season, she expects that 20 percent could be retained after the new year,” in her interview with the Times.

Race is still a factor for Black Americans, despite recent gains, still faces historical and persistent compromises -- often seeing a segmented workplace, and lowered wages, with Black women facing dual discrimination, as the Center for American Progress recently noted.

“The trend toward ever-lower unemployment rates should not obscure the fact that African Americans systematically suffer higher unemployment rates than whites, even in a good labor market. The unemployment rate for Black workers remains higher than that for white workers even when looking at subpopulations.”

Manufacturing came in at 41,000 - but still lower than desired, and “When you look globally, there are some tentative signs that the global manufacturing slowdown is bottoming out,” Michael Gapen, chief United States economist for Barclays, said. “But it may take the U.S. manufacturing sector a little longer than the rest of the world to stabilize,” he told the Times.

To be realized, manufacturing, in a global economy, is supported by a vast network of suppliers, so that a car made in America, might have parts from other countries as far flung as Eastern Europe, or China, and the Trump trade war with China, shows no signs of abating and with this month’s job report some have guessed there will be less pressure for him to make a deal.

Honing in on the increases, a snapshot shows that hotels, and restaurants came in at 45,000; but taking an aerial view, there is a decrease with 205,000 new jobs, from the 2018 average of 223,000.

“In the near term, it’s easier for employers to invest in hiring workers than it may be to, say, build a new factory during a protracted trade war, said Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at Bankrate.com,” told The Washington Post, giving us pause for rejoicing.

“If you’re going to build a structure, that’s a substantial commitment,” Hamrick added. “The good news for employers, and the bad news for workers, is that most employees have virtually no job security, so that does provide employers a bit more flexibility.”

Job and wage insecurity may be the new normal, and as noted in our previous posts, “Economists are puzzled about the cause. Some believe that falling union membership and the lack of bargaining power by employees has made it harder for people to demand a raise. Others point to workers seeking better benefits in exchange for higher wages, or low levels of inflation that have made it easier to keep wages low.”

“It doesn’t make sense. We would expect in a tightening labor market to see stronger wage growth,” said Heidi Shierholz, senior economist and director of policy at the left-leaning Economic Policy Institute. “Instead, wage growth has been backsliding this year.”

Updated Dec. 10, 2019, at 4:20 p.m. CST

Live in Chicago, it's Elizabeth Warren!

We are beginning to wonder about the hazards of covering live events and the often unpleasant surprises, whether from facing troops of young protesters with ear-blasting bullhorns, at the Goodwin Series at Northeastern Illinois University, to cover the appearance of former White House press boss, Sean Spicer, to having beefy security guards escort us past the local men in blue at recent Chicago Teachers Union protests; so we were delightfully surprised that presidential candidate Sen. Elizabeth Warren would be in our own Chicago neighborhood and within walking distance, and dutifully made our RSVP, according to the website for her Saturday night appearance at the Chicago Armory, less than a ten minute walk from our home.

Wariness set in when we noticed crowds lining up outside the building on the way to the local library, and after the drizzle began the crowd continued to grow as we approached the line one-half hour, at 4:30 p.m., before the door’s opened, at 5:00 p.m. for Warren’s 6:00 p.m. appearance; but, again, in the name of a free press, we soldiered on to realize that the que extended for blocks, and right back to our doorstep.

Whether this was divine intervention, or not, and realizing that hazarding a guess might engender us to more than rain, perhaps even an unseasonable swarm of locusts, we retreated to our living room sofa.

Tapping into the unearthly power of the internet and the reports of friends, who did make it into the Armory, we bring this report.

With crowds swarming amidst the patriotic bunting, Warren was introduced by the indefatigable U.S.  Rep. Jan Schakowsky who gave a thundering endorsement of Warren, as only she can do, with more energy than seems warranted for a tiny lady, and who gave the candidate a much needed shot in the arm, as she, in recent Iowa polls trailed behind our neighbor to the South, Mayor Pete Buttigieg.

As the Chicago Tribune reported, “Schakowsky is the first woman in Illinois’ congressional delegation to endorse a presidential contender and becomes Warren’s most significant endorsement in the state to date. Previously, U.S. Reps. Bobby Rush and Danny Davis, both of Chicago, backed California Sen. Kamala Harris for the Democratic presidential nomination.”

“But I am here this evening, and so honored to be here, to not only introduce but for the first time endorse the woman I believe will not only be the best president, but the woman that I believe is the most likely to lead us to victory in 2020 — my candidate, Elizabeth Warren,” she intoned.

  

Gaining support in the Heartland, but most of all, emphasizing her protection for working families is familiar Warren territory, as is her formidable energy that belies her 70 years.

Fulling embracing “bread and butter: issues, she noted, “When I was a girl, a full-time minimum wage in America would support a family of three,” said Warren, 70. “Today, a full-time minimum wage job in America will not keep a mama and a baby out of poverty. That is wrong.”

For many who reside in the Edgewater neighborhood, where the Armory is located, the message may have been more of persuasion, since the median income is over $46,000, and where its white majority, totaling 63 percent, hold a bachelor's degree, or higher, (56 percent), and whose increasing gentrification, has dwindled the number of black and brown residents to 16 percent, or less.

It also may have to do with reclaiming her lead in the polls; while in early November she was behind Joe Biden, she then took a descent, especially in Iowa, as previously noted, and a need to drill down on progressives - but especially to chip away at Pete’s supporters: white, college educated, and older voters, many of whom line Sheridan Road, just east of the Armory.

Reiterating her claims to decrease the power of corporations, and Big Pharma, she noted that they hold “power over their employees, power over their customers, power over the communities where they’re located and power over Washington."

In response, she said, “We need more power in the hands of workers.”

This is a populism theme that reached its apex in the 2016 election, but has been reshaped by Warren, and to an extent, by her rival Bernie Sanders.

“We have a government that works great for giant oil companies that want to drill everywhere, just not for the rest of us who see climate change bearing down upon us,” Warren said.

The light brush with climate change was a surprise to some who felt, “disappointed that she did not speak more about this,” said one observer, a longtime supporter of climate change, and the necessity for a plan to conquer it.

“And when you see a government that works great for those with money, it’s not working so good for anyone else. That’s corruption pure and simple, and we need to call it out,” she added.

Needing to gain further truck with progressives, especially those, that she might need to siphon from Sanders, Warren, previously, “in September endorsed Marie Newman of LaGrange in her primary challenge for the Southwest Side and suburban congressional seat held by eight-term Democratic Rep. Dan Lipinski of Western Springs, a social conservative,” added the Trib.

Within the liberal demographics of Edgewater, the senator’s message, may also have been extended to a strong progressive voter base, if the size of Saturday’s crowd is any indication; and, certainly her campaign seems to have done its homework, in its choice of areas..

Missing from Warren’s well-honed message was any mention of the lack of affordable housing in Chicago, and a growing homeless problem across the U.S. that has increased to 16 percent in Los Angeles alone.

While one can lead to the other; and, despite, or perhaps because of Edgewater’s growing gentrification, less than one block away from Schakowsky’s office, the homeless are picking through the garbage cans, including our own, and retrieving near empty milk cartons, food scraps, and worn out shoes.

Warren’s support of a minimum wage increase to $15.00 an hour is admirable, but some of her supporters and critics are wondering if she will pick up this piece of what is, by all appearances, an earnest social capital campaign.