Feds change course and plan rate increase in 2023

Jerome Powell

Wednesday's news from the Federal Reserve’s two day meeting gave a surprise to many observers and government officials when they announced a “sooner rather than later” rate increase at the end of 2023, to be exact, by 0.6 % from the long held zero percent.

Statements at the press conference from Fed Chair Jerome Powell caused 10 year Treasuries to hit 1.569 percent from the previous 1.498, and caused the Dow Jones to drop to 0.8 percent lower according to the Wall Street Journal.

While the news was a surprise, it was tied to a strong recovery for the US economy and fears of higher inflation that has crept, some say alarmingly fast, with increased consumer spending.

People have been sitting on a pile of accumulated cash, from the pandemic lockdowns, stimulus checks, and their actions have been supported by increased vaccinations; a marked departure from a few months ago, and the Fed noted in a later statement that, “Progress on vaccinations has reduced the spread of Covid19 in the United States.”

It seems that the Fed is taking both caution, as well as recognition of these economic realities which have others concerned about inflation seeing price increase on services, rather than goods, as consumers are now ready to travel, with restrictions lifted by state and local governments, coupled with the increased vaccinations.

“We wouldn’t hesitate to use our tools to address that,” added Powell about fears of inflation.

The current thinking, from she and Powell, is that inflation will be allowed to increase, with an expected decrease; but, the Labor Department has noted from their own consumer price index, that in May, there was a 5% increase from a year earlier, with current averages at 3.4%.

While employment is one of the two mandates for the Reserve, (along with keeping inflation at 2%) there have been mixed numbers; and with April and May, adding a total of 837,000 jobs, many are unsure of the future.

The response from the general public has been muted; but, there are still 7.6 million jobs less than February of 2020, the baseline measure, causing even more concern in the Biden administration.

As we previously have noted, some of those jobs may never come back and the increase of retirement is pulling down labor force participation, said Powell, and the Journal noted, “Some 2.6 million people retired between February 2020 and April of this year, according to estimates from the Dallas Fed.”

Powell noted that the unreliability means that predicting will be difficult, and said, “So we don’t know exactly what labor force participation will be as we go forward.”

There are still those who are reluctant to enter the job market for fears of crowded office spaces, equally crowded forms of public transportation, lack of child care (which might improve in the Fall) and a desire to change jobs for higher wages and better working conditions; all of which, for some have been eased by the $300 in extended unemployment benefits, but which some lose as early as the weekend as 25 states are ending them, as they feel it is an impediment to seeking employment.

Thursday did see an increase in weekly jobless claims by 37,000 to 412,000, from the past week, but the four week average has set a new normal level of 395,000, the lowest since March 2020, when the virus first surged in the US.

It’s obvious that the US economy is on an uneven road to recovery post pandemic, but it’s also true that the changed landscape has upended previous thoughts and assumptions about what can be believed and changed, or in the words from a previous editorial meeting, “This isn’t your grandpa’s recovery.”

 

May Jobs shows a rocky climb to recovery for the U.S.

 The May Jobs Report released on Friday by the U.S. Labor Dept. showed a 559,000 increase in non farm jobs, a plunge from the 671,000 that most economists had predicted. Still, it’s a good deal better than April’s disappointing plunge of the now revised 278,000 which sent shockwaves through Congress, the White House and academia.

Nevertheless a disappointment is still a disappointment, and when the economy is still mired in the midst of a global pandemic, the numbers released give a shaky report on the progress of progress for an American recovery.

Nick Bunker, economic research director for North America at the jobsite Indeed, described for The Wall Street Journal that, “It’s a bit like a rocket where takeoff has been slightly delayed, but takeoff will still happen.”

“It’s a middle-of-the-road report,” said Matthew Luzzetti, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank, of the May numbers to The Wall Street Journal. 

“It is disappointing relative to where we were a few months ago, where we were anticipating you could see a million-plus type prints over these coming months. We have had to ratchet down our expectations about what job gains are likely to be going forward,” he added.

The bright spot as many cities eased covid restrictions is that leisure and hospitality jobs shot up to the tune of 292,000 jobs. But, that is still an area that is desperately seeking new hires and is begging as many of the potential workers are women, and especially women of color, who are either still helping young children with remote schooling, and juggling housework along with meal preparations; while still others, maybe buoyed by the extended unemployment benefits of $300 per week, are weighing their options for higher wages and less physically demanding work.

Still others are afraid of contracting the virus and those without cars may not want to ride crowded busses and trains to jobs, where working elbow to elbow, they face the risk of the virus, or any of its mutations.

The rate of unemployment for women is 5.5 versus 6 percent for men, and an overall 5.8 percent for May.

What may occur in the Fall if the double dose shot of vaccination continues, and schools reopen, is that more women will return to those jobs, and ease the burden of child care, as well.

One significant factor is that the average leisure wage of $18.09 is well below that of private sector wages, reported the Journal.

There are some signs already as gains in restaurants, hotel, and school employment rises a bit. But the trend will have to continue to see real gains.

Black employment continues a high, this month of 9.1 percent unemployment, the highest of all groups with 7.3 percent for Hispanics making for a challenge that is historically unmet, often with the oft used phrase, “When whites sneeze, blacks get a cold.”

Most concerning is that the labor force participation rate is relatively unchanged from 63.3 to 61.6, and the gender and racial gap reflects much of that.

Adding to the mix, Julia Pollak, a labor economist at Ziprecruiter.com, to The New YorkTimes said “there was a mismatch between the type of jobs being offered and those being searched for. More than half of seekers want remote work, while only 10 percent of employers are offering that option.”

The good news is that much of the current wage increase is from a 15 cents wage increase bringing overall pay to $30.33 in May, but that it is due to an increase in younger workers, especially teens, willing to work at lower wages, as their share of the workforce increases.

While all of this is a complicated picture for most to process, it’s important to realize while the road ahead is guaranteed to be rocky, the U.S economy of unfilled jobs is lower than the 10 million previously reported, and those whose job loss was attributable to Covid is now 16 percent less that it was in the last two quarters.

Adding to the increase in average gains of employment for the second quarter of 540 positions, as cited by the Times, coupled with those long term unemployed people, (more than 26 weeks) the corresponding drop to 3.8 million, approximately 40 percent of the total, then there is indeed welcome news for May, albeit uneven.

Liz is gone!

 

A long held plan to punish the truth telling Liz Cheney, the leading Republican woman in the U.S. House of Representatives, and daughter of former Vice President, Dick Cheney, came to a vote on Wednesday, to oust the third highest ranking member from her role as chair of the GOP House Republican Conference .

Defying Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy in her insistence that Donald Trump lied about a stolen election, and the illegitimacy of Joe Biden as president; plus his exhortation of the well planned insurrection on the U.S. Capitol on Jan 6, she has called into question the fealty oath in the GOP, Trump, or nothing, as the party has decided to strip her of her role in a secret ballot, behind closed doors.

Adding to the arena of name calling, bashing, and being “off script'' is that party loyalty is necessary to take back the House in the upcoming midterms, say GOP leaders.

While that may be true, the story is deeper than a mere power play. On one hand, party loyalty is needed as Biden’s popularity and higher ratings are reality, as is his general level of support, (near 60 percent), for his infrastructure and job plans, and overall affability, is making it hard for Republicans to make the case that he needs to be reined in.

McCarthy has done a 360 from the phone call he made to Trump as his office doors were being bashed, and glass being smashed, as the insurrectionists were forcing their way into the capitol. Responding to the call, he replied, "Well, Kevin, I guess these people are more upset about the election than you are."

The reply from McCarthy: "Who the f--k do you think you are talking to?”

Fast forward, and we then saw McCarthy making pilgrimages to Palm Beach to pledge allegiance to what Meghan McCain has called the “Cheeto Jesus.”

McCain, the daughter of the late John McCain, another female scion of a stalwart Republican family, has gone on to say:  “it’s the most asinine politics I have seen in a really, really long time,” reported The Hill.

She concluded by adding, ominously, “See where this lands us in midterms.”

An important factor is that a woman from a storied family is being bashed, creating a gender gap in the minds of  some Republican suburban college educated women, many of whom voted for Biden in the 2020 election; and turned the tide in earlier local elections, and may do so again in the 2022 midterms, where the entire House is up for election.

Once again from The Hill: “House Republicans are playing to districts that are more ideologically conservative, where crossing Trump will be big fodder for a primary challenger . . .”

Of course this is all catnip for many Democratic officials, and strategists, who hold a thin margin in the House; and, don’t be surprised to see the heir apparent, New York legislator, Elise Stefanik, as a token, who walks the line, a role she has burnished by being a cheerleader for Trump, after public condemnation for his and who vociferously supported him after Jan. 6, despite earlier opposition to his tax cuts.

Former Rep. Barbara Comstock, a Republican of Virginia, noted, “Any woman who would take that position under these circumstances, it’s not going to do well for them or for the party,” adding pithily, “Then it’s OK to be a woman who smiles and reads the talking points. That’s not where you want to be. That’s no equal.”

In short, GOP women are now, in the parlance of the day, “woke”

Ironically, gender warfare, and fractured politics aside, the course of events has turned the head on the so-called, “cancel culture” that Republicans and conservatives decry.

Cheney whose cause has been championed by some liberals, is a purebred conservative, albeit one from the mold set by old school stalwarts such as Henry Cabot Lodge, John Rockefeller, and Mitt Romney, an ally.

This mold has disappeared over the last few decades where the “reactionary” label has been hung from GOP necks, and some see Cheney’s actions, not merely supporting Democracy, patriotic as it be, but perhaps one of several possible paths: a run for the presidency;  becoming an independent, as a check on GOP excess, and if only the former, taking her cause to the bully pulpit as a candidate against Vice President Kamala Harris, the heir apparent, for the 2024 presidential election.

On Tuesday, in what has been labelled as a defiant speech, Cheney said, ""Remaining silent and ignoring the lie emboldens the liar," and. "I will not participate in that. I will not sit back and watch in silence while others lead our party down a path that abandons the rule of law, and joins the former president's crusade to undermine our democracy."

She also added a warning: "Today, we face a threat America has never seen before. A former president who provoked a violent attack on this Capitol in an effort to steal the election has resumed his aggressive effort to convince Americans that the election was stolen from him," Cheney said. "He risks inciting further violence."

April Jobs report does a freefall

 

The April Jobs Report released on Friday by the US Dept. of Labor shocked many economists who after the March numbers of 916,000 non farm jobs expected 1.2 million or more in a trajectory that was only up, or a blockbuster to say that America was back on track, but now are singing songs of lamentation with an abysmal 266,00 jobs, one that also sent the markets reeling.

Some of the news was anticipated by Wednesday’s ADP jobs report, a culmination of private jobs that while often yards away from Labor’s figures, showed some increases, notably in large business with a 277,000 increases, but otherwise offered a modest picture.

March was also revised downwards to 770,000 leaving no joy, but some serious head shaking in the halls of academia, as well as on Capitol Hill. It also forced the Biden administration to admit that the slog ahead was indeed much longer than they anticipated, and that their jobs plan was needed now, more than ever.

A wide variety of economists made rosey forecasts for April including Jeffereies who came in with one of 2.1 million jobs, and as CNBC noted was “by far the highest estimate on Wall Street.”

When asked, about the moribund report, President Biden told reporters that the “climb is steep, and we’ve got a long way to go,” and “we are still digging our way out of a very deep hole."

Grant Thornton’s chief economist Diane Swonk, perhaps said it best when she told The New York Times, “It turns out, it’s easier to put an economy into a coma than wake it up.”

Even a 1.2 million increase would leave employment 7.3 million short, said Capital senior U.S. economist Michael Pearce in his interview with CNBC on Wednesday.

A wide variety of economists made rosey forecasts for April including Jeffereies who came in with one of 2.1 million jobs, and as CNBC noted is “by far the highest estimate on Wall Street.”

Ben Herzon, executive director of U.S. economics at the financial services company IHS Markit, was sanguine, when he said,  “A single report with unexpected weakness in job gains is not a cause for concern.”

Some welcome news on Thursday, was the decrease of unemployment benefits to those applying for them. Those figures showed 505,000 people filing for state programs, falling for the last four straight weeks, after peaking at six million last spring, according to the Times. 

That acceleration showed mostly in April in the fields of leisure and hospitality that came close to the private employers in the earlier ADP report of 237,000, with the Labor Dept. giving a strong figure of 300,000.

In keeping with these strong figures the increase among Americans getting vaccinated to the tune of 30% also gave a shot in the arm to the numbers, along with a corresponding increase in more business’s reopening.

There was a side note that these restaurant employers were finding it hard to attract and retain skilled workers. This has been a steady issue, and the void has been attributable, say some, to extended unemployment benefits, and stimulus checks from the Biden administration.

To no one’s surprise this has come from Republican critics of Biden efforts, and state leadership in red states, bending an old trope that offering even a mild increase in state unemployment benefits is a disincentive to look for earned labor.

There is no evidence to support this assertion, and others attribute it to a cushion that allows many restaurant workers to look for better paying, more stable jobs, without the low wages, grubbing for tips, and the physical drain of a fast paced job, where workers are on their feet for hours.

The Institute for Supply Management, added that “finding and retaining labor, skilled and unskilled is highly challenging and frustrating,” and that “as the challenges continue, we are not accepting all the work that we could if we had the labor."

For women workers, especially those with children the partial openings of in person learning, especially on the elementary level, affects their ability to take work, and with the addition of meal preparation and assisting with remote learning is a real drain.

It also might be one reason while labor force participation increased from 61.4 percent to 61.7. 

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen echoed the president, by saying, in her remarks to the Times, that “although she was expecting to see more substantial job growth last month, the labor market was stronger than the headline numbers suggested. She pointed to an increase in hours worked by employees and a decline in workers who are involuntarily working part-time for economic reasons.”

The United States, while still a wealthy country faces, as does it counterparts across the globe, the real problem of recovery: jobs that may never come back, consumer hesitancy, and change in taste, leading to, as Adam Posen said to Bloomberg News, “transitionally more unemployment” adding, “there’s no good government fix for that “ 

Police reform and Black America: getting to the right path

Last Tuesday’s conviction of Derek Chauvin was a fundamental shift in police abuse cases towards Black Americans: a decades old problem that resulted in the murder of George Floyd, in Minneapolis, last year, and galvanized sympathy and world wide protests, all over the world. And, In America where race is never far from the surface, the guilty charges towards Chauvin, who knelt on Floyd’s neck for 9 minutes and 29 seconds, the verdict represented a sea change in accountability.

Before the advent of body cams and cell phone video by bystanders, police literally got away with murder, but not this time.

It wasn’t just about the protests from the Midwest to Los Angeles, Detroit and Philadelphia, all with significant Black populations, or the verdict itself, but how America deals with its most intractable problem, race, as former President Bill Clinton once labelled  it.

The moral issue is also paramount, but so are the images of Black mothers keening in grief, as they mourn the loss of their children. We can say their names in our litany of grief and outrage, but the seemingly eternal struggle that began, as many say, with Emmett Till, the young Black boy falsely accused of whistling at a white woman, and whose brutal murder, in the 1950’s and whose open coffin was symbolic of the brutality that later evolved towards a sad continuum with Rodney King, moving on to Breonna Taylor, and onto Duante Wright, and now Andrew Brown, Jr. makes for a painful recollection.

The question for many is can this historical trajectory propel the United States towards not just police reform, but to also address the inequality that lies at the core of being Black in America.

A myriad of voices has taken to the airwaves, and while the memory of past wrongs has not been forgotten, this is also rightly seen as a starting point, and not the end, to redress wrongs.

President Biden summed it best when he cited meaningful efforts to “police reform” and  . . to tackle systemic misconduct in police departments. . .but it shouldn’t take a whole year to get this done.”

Many outside of the White House are  saying it shouldn’t also take 200 plus years to address the problem, and certainly the ghosts of slaves are present at the moment, some might be heard saying, “How long? How long, Lord?”

Looking at the role of lawmakers we have the George Floyd Justice in Policing Act as one significant step, but hopefully, not as the old adage states: “one step forward and two steps backward.”

The five points of this legislation: banning no knock warrants in federal drug cases, a national database on bad cops, with mandated collection, and the prohibition of racial and religious profiling and money redirected to community based policing programs is a foundational effort, and coupled with equality efforts can make a difference, in the lives of many Black Americans, but this is an effort that will be spread across decades.

The bill spearheaded by Rep. Karen Bass (D) California, progress is now hitting the political wall, a space where morality diverges, and politics emerges. And that space hits the numbers where after being passed in the House needs 10 Republicans in the Senate, before reaching the presidential desk for signature.

One question arises as Jonathan Chait outlined in a recent piece for New York magazine is this: should black protestors trust a system where they are underrepresented. It’s not simply a rhetorical one, but an effort that “will require fundamental reforms through democratic means.”

Basing his argument on the overwhelming whiteness of the Senate and its “greater representation to people who live in small states . . .[who] tend to be heavily white, this effectively gives white people far more power in the chamber than their share of the voting population.”

Once again, as he noted, we face the filibuster, non fiscal legislation such as this requires 60 votes, and that political reality may prove to be the end of this first step, since many in the GOP are now saying that the guilty verdict was based on mob rule, or rather the threat of mob violence, a reality for some, but which misrepresents the role of true justice, and a solid prosecution.

Another question: can the emotional toll and resonance be separated from the legislative process? It was done with the 1964 Civil Rights Act, by President Johnson, at great political cost to him; can it be done again?

Sen. Tim Scott, (R) South Carolina has been in discussion with Bass over a competing bill but one that has no outright ban on chokeholds, and was rightfully blocked by Democrats last June, not only for this omission, but also, not addressing “qualified immunity” does not fully address racial inequality.

The Rev. Kelly Douglas Brown once said after the Trayvon Martin shooting, which still rings true, “What became clear to me, and what is the disturbing thing, is that this moment we find ourselves in is not a moment. Black bodies that in this moment are under siege are part of a long history and narrative. It’s about how America has long identified itself as an Anglo-Saxon nation, and what supports this is white supremacy.”

In the midst of the Chauvin trial then there were more shootings that continued Rev. Douglas Brown’s trajectory. Added to the mix is the role of justice, rolling down like a river, but this time from the U.S. Justice Dept., that in the words of Attorney General Merrick Garland who announced a new inquiry “into possible patterns of discrimination and excessive force among,” the Minneapolis Police Department.

Which gives us pause.

Are we taking a collective breath? Or, are we hoping for the best? At what juncture can the intersection of race, class, justice and legislative action take place? For the better angels of our nature.

One sign has come from the Justice Department, where Attorney General Merrick Garland announced the following day, that he was introducing a new civil inquiry to establish “pattern or practice”, to determine “whether the Minneapolis Police Department engages in a pattern or practice of unconstitutional or unlawful policing.”

We also heard this: “yesterday’s verdict in the state criminal trial does not address potentially systemic policing issues in Minneapolis.”

Extending the tool of consent decrees, a long held tool to address civil rights violations, takes the nation further away from their near disuse under the Trump administration.

Going even further Garland is also investigating the Louisville Police Department, after the death of Breonna Taylor.

In the end, or more of the beginning, that the verdict will have to take a different path, is as Prof. Eddie J. Glaude, chair of Princeton University’s Department of African American History, who shared his thoughts with the media, based on his colleague Imani Perry’s book, “More Beautiful, and More Terrible”, that “we think about racial inequality not as intentional acts of discrimination that evidence themselves in our individual interactions; but that we “think about racial inequality as a kind of cultural practice.”

Moving ahead, can our efforts lead us away from this practice?

916,000 jobs for March signals help is on the way for US

On Friday, just in time for Easter, a gift arrived, but not a flurry of eggs from the Bunny, instead a fresh batch of nonfarm jobs from the US Labor Dept. March jobs report, providing enough nonfarm jobs to ensure that eggs can be a staple on American breakfast tables, with 916,000 new jobs, far exceeding conservative predictions of 650,000.

This gives credence to an economic recovery wrecked from the Covid pandemic which resulted in shuttered business across the country, and that seemed impossible to stop,, especially taking its toll on service workers, and their families, especially those employed in leisure and hospitality, and the accompanying food and beverage industry, threatening millions of people with eviction, and even starvation, as long lines appeared at local food banks.

The March report, accompanied by the American Rescue Pan, passed by the Biden administration, with $1400 stimulus checks, is now giving support to a level of recovery albeit while still holding 8.5 million less jobs, can create hope for the victims of the pandemic.

The unemployment rate ticked down from 6.2% to 6.0 percent and the news was celebrated by the White House, where Secretary of Labor Marty Walsh was present at Friday’s press conference where he noted, “That’s certainly good news for over 900,000 working men and families in this country.  We saw significant job growth in most sectors of our economy.  And it’s clear that the National Vaccine Program is not only saving lives, but it’s enabling more people to get back to work.”

A sizable chunk of those 916,000 jobs were from leisure and hospitality to the tune of 280,000, with an increase from its cousin, food and beverage with 176,000.  And, not far behind, according to The Hill, was “entertainment and recreation [that] added 64,000 jobs and accommodation added 40,000.”

Furthermore, giving added scores, despite the debates on school reopening, of those that did open, contributed 190,000 jobs to the good news.

Reaction to the report was mixed, but most felt that, “We fully expect that the pace of job gains will continue for months, and anticipating that the unemployment rate, now at 6 percent will be well below 5 percent by the end of the year,” wrote Mike Fratantoni, chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association, in a Friday analysis,” according to The Hill.

Unfortunately, the racial gap continues with Black and Brown workers lagging still far behind with 9.6 % and 7.9% respectively, compared to the 5.4 percent for whites. 

For most economists, and sociologists, this gap will have to be closed by significant investments in minority communities, something that has begun in earnest in cities like Chicago, but has not been replicated in other areas, principally other center cities, and Nicole Goldin, a non senior resident fellow at the Atlantic Council, noted to The Hill, “The extent to which the rebound is more inclusive will depend on how eventual legislation prioritizes investments. . .”. 

While the general unemployment rate did trickle down to 6.0%, the household rate, or the U6, was 6.9 percent, showing that an overall return to the 3.5 percent of pre pandemic times remains the baseline.

Other economists feel that while March showed good signs, there was still room for a cautious stance, including Daniel Zhao, senior economist of the career site Glassdoor, who told The New York Times, “March’s jobs report is the most optimistic report since the pandemic began,” but, “it's not the largest gain in payrolls since the pandemic began, but it’s the first where it seems like the finish line is in sight.”

For those workers with less education, gains are also seen, and The Wall Street Journal reported “those with less than high school diploma fell to 8.2% last month from 10.1 % in February. The caveat with this group was “the return of some lower skilled workers likely helped push down average hourly wages of 4 cents to $29.96,” they added.

In contrast the US economy lost 1.7 million jobs in March 2020, with a peak loss of 20 million in April, according to the Times. But, added to the good news is the caveat that the virus still remains a risk with covid cases surging, “as states have begun easing restrictions,” and the threat of a surge could force some states to backpedal.”

There is some assurance that this will not be a return from winter restrictions, because as Julia Pollack, a labor economist at the job site ZipRecruiter, who said to the Times, said, “this time is different, and that’s because of vaccines.”

Summing it up were a group of economists polled by the Journal who felt that employers will add an average “of 514,000 jobs each month over the next year, for a total of more than six million,” but despite the acceleration would “leave overall employment totals below where they stood before the pandemic.

Gun sales increased for unexpected groups over one year

One of the more startling aspects of life in the United States, this past year, was the dramatic increase in gun sales during the pandemic. Some have cited a general fear of safety needs, while others have wondered why owning a gun could help soothe nerves battered by a fear of guns, while still others wondered if increased gun sales were related to racial fears, related to racial unrest in the country.

The numbers from one year ago do make for a reexamination: 17 million guns sold in that period, a 40 % increase, in a year over year comparison, but also some signposts; when, for example, President Trump announced the spread of Covid, gun sales increased to about 120,000 a day.

The Brookings Institution, in one of its briefs, noted one succinct fact, “There are more guns than people in the United States (400 million are in circulation for a population of 330 million). In just the first six months of 2020, approximately 19 million firearms have been sold, representing more than one firearm for every 20 Americans.”

Race is never far from the surface in the US, and the racial unrest over police killing Black men is a factor, and in reality, it did play an important role in the surge of gun sales. As they noted in their research study, “The presence of so many guns complicates discussions of public policy. Injustices committed by the police, and systemic racism in society more broadly need to end. It is concerning that the necessary national discussion regarding racial injustice is leading to even more firearms in the hands of Americans.”

The unforgettable images of a white couple brandishing guns from their front porch, in St. Louis, at Black Lives Demonstrators illustrated, ironically, the quagmire that race and guns extended into the conversation.

In what may be a surprise to many, another surge has come from an unexpected population, Black women as gun owners, and some are surprised, but there has been a trend, even before 2020, for Black females and gun ownership; especially as a reaction to assaults, having witnessed others, especially family members as victims of gun violence.

This public face flies in contradiction of the typical image of an angry, gun toting white male,and what has been his increasing visibility in state capitol protests against increased coronavirus restrictions in Lansing, Mich., Richmond, Va.,and of course the Jan. 6 insurrection at the nation’s capitol in Washington, DC.

If this is an awakening, then Black women are the first, but not the last, to make decisions on how to defend themselves, and their families. And, while many of these efforts have taken place in some cities, such as North Carolina, it is not atypical in the rural South.

Springing from that soil was the horrific killing of church members at “Mother Emanuel” church in South Carolina, by self confessed White Supremacist, Dylann Roof, and the numerous mass shootings across the nation: Columbine, Sandy Hook, Marjorie Stoneman Douglas High School shooting, and many others, past and present, there is a solidarity of thought and action to gun ownership.

Notable has been the company GIRLZ on FIRE (Feminine, Independent, Resilient, and Empowered) in HIgh Point, North Carolina, that specializes in “educating women in the safe use and operation of firearms,” and owned by Rhonda Carson that spearheaded an eight hour course,

One of her students noted, “I just want the resources and knowledge to defend myself and my family effectively . . .”

While the growing outreach from the National Rifle Association to women of color has been accompanied by Black firearms organizations, there are also pitfalls, such as police searches, where as Carson notes, if she is stopped for any reason in her car, she tells the officer where the gun is located, and asks him to reach for it.

Meanwhile in Chicago, the increase in the immediate aftermath of the George Floyd murder, increased carjackings, personal assault, and personal safety concerns, has created an increased interest in gun ownership, the largest from any racial group, from a 2020 gun interest survey, “noted that Black customers accounted for the largest increase of any racial group,” according to The Chicago Tribune, and “A Northwestern University study found that while white people bought ore firearms overall last year, African Americans made up a disproportionate number for first time gun buyers.”

There are controversies, as well as concerns, about this increase, with some residents, and community leaders saying that increased gun ownership may lead to unintended consequences. For some, like Autry Phillips, head of the violence group Target Area Development Corp, the trend of adding “firearms, even legal ones, into Black Communities could result in gun theft, accidental shooting and tragedy,” he told the Tribune.

Criminality in racial profiling, especially with the rise of armed white men, seen as patriots, is a psychological roadblock for many Americans, both white and Black.

Of note is that gun violence in Chicago increased to over 52% in 2020, plus a 65% increase of women killed in acts of gun violence; with a corresponding increase of 16% in domestic violence noted the editorial board of The Chicago Sun Times.

Significantly most new owners in 2020, “were more likely to be Black.”

Black Chicagoans who own guns not only face the immediate challenges of obtaining a FOID card, but also simply having their concealed carry license (both are required in the city) applications turned down for no apparent reason, says Phillip Smith, founder and president of the National African American Gun Association.

Another unexpected group of gun owners are members of the LGBT community, who have taken up arms to protect themselves from homo and transphobia, and who are “dedicated to the legal, safe, and responsible use of firearms for self-defense of the sexual-minority community. We no longer believe it is the right of those who hate and fear gay, lesbian, bi, trans, or polyamorous persons to use us as targets for their rage. Self-defense is our RIGHT,” says their website pinkpistols.org.

While definitive data on gun ownership in this community has not been prevalent, or precise, generalizing on the increase in 2020 among many variables gives some clues, but there is news, as 19thnews.org reported at the end of 2020.

Erin Palette founded Operation Blazing Sword in the aftermath of the Pulse nightclub shooting, and noted that, “hate crimes are not just about being in the wrong place at the wrong time, but that there are “monsters” who will target LGBTQ+ people as a specific demographic Palette said, and that’s reason enough to get a gun. Hate crimes against LGBTQ+ people increased by almost 6 percent from 2017 to 2018, with a 42 percent increase in crimes against transgender people.”

In 2018, Operation Blazing Sword merged with the Pink Pistols. . . and Palette now runs the largest queer guns group in the United States, if not the world.”

The question for many is it right for queer people to own guns, and will they be shunned for holding perceived right wing viewpoints, even if only for self protection? But, it also shows how many people, especially marginalized groups, feel that they need to arm themselves against those who want to do them harm. And, then there is the harm within: there is a high rate of suicide in the gay community, as well as interpersonal partner violence, as the Washington Blade noted in 2018.

Effective June 1, college students in Montana will be able to carry concealed guns on campus, making for another population shift of gun owners. Signed into law by Greg Gianforte, the law has become controversial among many students not exempted, and as one student Daisy Khoury  interviewed by NPR noted, she did not want to worry about having her morning meal and and fearing gunfire.

For others the worry is that of suicide, and Montana has the third highest suicide rate in the nation; and, some simply to the combination of adolescence, hormones and alcohol, a deadly mix in a closed atmosphere.

Students are required to take a gun safety course in one form, or another, to receive a permit, but that may not be enough to soothe the nerves of some, like Khoury who is also worried, that,  “There are signs on the front door that say, no nicotine, no tobacco. But you're allowing 18-year-olds to have guns, who are drinking on the weekends and are living with a bunch of people? It's totally crazy to me.”

This is all set against legislation requiring background checks that was reintroduced by Congress on March 2, a much debated piece of legislation that would cover internet sales and private gun events, and has the backing of Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) ranking senior member of the Senate, as well as Rep. Robin Kelly, also an Illinois Democrat.

In a push against the bill some states are pushing for penalization of police officers and “others to work with federal  law enforcement or dare to enforce the federal laws,” according to an Op-Ed piece in The Chicago Sun-Times, earlier in March.

More than a dozen states are considering this pushback including Alabama, Arizona Arkansas and Nebraska and Oklahoma; but legal experts say that the Supremacy Clause supersedes state law and is backed by the US Constitution, as well as federal laws in general.

Now in the tragic aftermath of both the Atlanta shootings, and Tuesday’s shooting in Boulder, Colo., President Biden has pushed Congress to approve the pending legislation, but admittingly the Democrats getting the 60 votes necessary will be an uphill battle, to avoid the filibuster.

“I don’t need to wait another minute, let alone an hour, to take common sense steps that will save lives in the future and to urge my colleagues in the House and Senate to act,” Biden said in remarks at the White House following Monday’s shooting. “We can ban assault weapons and high-capacity magazines in this country once again. I got that done when I was a senator. … We should do it again,” according to The Hill.

He also “called on the Senate to “immediately pass” the two House-passed bills that would expand background checks for firearm sales, noting that both passed the Democratic-controlled lower chamber with some Republican support.” 

“This is not and should not be a partisan issue, this is an American issue. It will save lives, American lives, and we have to act,” Biden added.