Court decision on Roe might help Biden in midterms

 

Now that that the dust has somewhat settled after the leak of a draft by the US Supreme Court with its intention to rescind the 1973 ruling establishing precedent for abortions in the country, and the backlash from pro choice supporters, and praise from antiabortionists, the verified document will send abortion rights back to the states, and will undoubtedly create a patchwork of laws affecting over 60 million American women.

The 6 to 3 conservative majority has also become a political beast of its  own with the legacy of three Trump appointed justices, and a conservative chief justice, and along with their majority they are also Roman Catholic, whose church is famously opposed to abortion.

The country has been rolling over what a post-Roe America will look like, but it also provides a window of hope for the Biden administration in the upcoming midterms, as his unexpected presidential agenda, includes a land war in Ukraine, without boots on the ground, but with considerable US financial aid; and, a continuing pandemic, which despite appearances, is still present, and battered by foreign policy flubs such as the bypass with France, to favor a deal with Australia over submarine contracts, and now another racially motivated mass shooting, that has the president pockmarked with bad poll numbers: 54.5 disapproving and 41.0 according to fivethirtyeight.com.

While perhaps not a stage for a counter revolution, seeing the country’s women face down a barrage of statewide trigger laws outlawing abortion, that alone, might galvanize abortion rights supporters, including independents to the November polls, or at least enough voter escalation to sustain the current slim majority by the Democrats in the Senate.

For those of a certain generation, the appeal to states rights is a familiar refrain of “rights history'', and was infamously used, more than fifty years ago, to fight civil rights laws for Black Americans, against the stronger teeth of federal legislation.

Extended to its most grievous aspects, the fear, of such legislation, is that it will be used to prevent women from accessing birth control information on their personal electronic devices, such as personal computers, or smartphones, but, also to the imprisonment of doctors, and even family members, who might assist in any manner to aid a woman in obtaining an abortion, even, as we’ve recently learned, crossing state lines to obtain one.

This has its roots in the the Texas law that saw an abridgement of these  freedoms which prompted Vice President Kamala Harris to state:

“All Americans should realize that this is a direct assault on the freedom of women, and it is an attack that can affect all Americans.”

Those fears also face the possible roll back of same sex marriage, and other key social legislation that has been passed, and as Harris continued, “When you look at the privacy rights that are in jeopardy, it could very well include the right to marry someone of the same sex.”

These fears can be seen, say some pollsters and academics, as a path to harness the needed votes for the Democrats to hold onto not only current majorities, but also to redefine the Biden administration.

The president has also called out the radicalism of the MAGA crowd, and while not mentioning the name of former President Trump, whose support for primary candidates may have splintered in some areas, (but certainly not all), still resonates with a radicalized and conservative crowd, even in a reliably blue city like Chicago, there are many residents that revere his name, and want him back in the Oval Office.

“Let me tell you about this ultra MAGA agenda,” Biden said, using former president Donald Trump’s 2016 campaign slogan — “Make America Great Again” — as a pejorative. “It’s extreme, as most MAGA things are.”

Then, in the subsequent days, Biden and his team continued to hammer Republicans in aggressive terms, attacking them as “MAGA” and “ultra MAGA.” Biden even dismissed his predecessor at one point as “the great MAGA king,” reported The Washington Post.

A rallying call of sorts, was a coda issued by the vice-president who added, “I also believe strongly there is another fundamental right that is at stake, the right that all should be entitled to self determination.”

The problem is that in midterms of the past the Dems have taken a shellacking, Clinton in 1994 with 54 seats lost in the House of Representatives and Obama in 2010 and 2014, of 77; with a regain of 12, and with stakes at their highest for a denouement with Biden. 

Presidential historians show that midterm losses, the report card if you will, by the electorate, is now considered a given, as well as a travesty, by the standards of 2010.

To try and change that pattern Harris has used the New Frontier rhetoric of the Kennedy administration, when she said, “There is, at this moment, a time for education, a time for communication, a time for mobilization.”

What will be necessary for this to come together is a calculated campaign with all hands on deck, to show that the calculated politicization of the court: the assault on women's rights is something that is of utmost importance.

Doug Sosnik, a senior political advisor to Bill Clinton, told the Los Angeles Times, earlier in May, that after the ruling, in June could show “the impacts of the court’s actions will affect the lives of more voters, providing Biden with a further opening to sharpen his political narrative.”

Also, from veteran pollster Celinda Lake in that same forum , “This could be game changing in the midterm elections, and changing what happens in the midterms could have a profound effect on how people view the Biden presidency.”

April US Jobs report brought showers of joy

 In one of the more dramatic moments in US job history, the Labor Dept. on Friday announced in the April Jobs Report, that there was a gain of non farm jobs to 428,000, helping to narrow the total jobs lost to the pandemic to a near return of 95 percent, and giving solace to not only the White House, but also to the sagging polls of President Joe Biden as he struggles to gain momentum, after being battered, albeit unfairly, for high inflation, crime, and other social and economic problems.

Unemployment, the marquee number, as we prefer to call it, held steady at 3.6 percent, but the fly in the ointment was the low, nearly unchanged labor force participation, that hung in at  62.2  percent, with a loss of participation of 363,000.

That aside, the report was solid, providing solace to many, ,and an assurance that the US economy, at least for replacing jobs lost to the Covid pandemic, was faster than expected.

Wages were up by 5.5 percent, but those rising wages, while needed to cover inflated costs for the consumer, might also threaten the already fragile inflationary surge that is felt from Main Street, to Wall Street.

President Biden, has noted that “Fighting inflation is a top priority,” for his administration and bolstered by the rate increase by the Federal Reserve Board, might make a difference, as it attempts to cool down the economy, and avoid further inflation, and the recent increase by half a percentage point, is only a path toward more.

The New York Times reported that, “President Biden pointed to the latest data as evidence of “the strongest job creation economy in modern times,” a message the White House is increasingly amplifying ahead of the congressional elections.”

All things being political and with the looming November midterms, the Times also said that, “After the Labor Department report on Friday, Ronna McDaniel, the chairwoman of the Republican National Committee, put the spotlight on inflation rather than jobs. “Families can’t afford food and groceries, wages can’t keep up with inflation, and Biden’s agenda is only going to make it worse,” she said in a statement.`

Going even further the Times noted that, “Job creation will eventually settle into a slower pace as businesses feel the pinch of soaring inflation and tighter financial conditions, but gains will stay healthy,” said Oren Klachkin, a lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. He forecast that the economy, which has added two million jobs in 2022, would add another two million by year’s end.”

Taking this as good news, at least on the periphery, it’s easy to see that the delicate balance between the Feds, on one hand, trying to pry loose the levers of inflation, is like a house of cards, with only a good gust of wind from an open window, or door, to send it all sailing downward.

Fed Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, said on Wednesday at a press conference,:"So we think through our policies, through further healing in the labor market, higher rates, for example of vacancy filling and things like that, and more people coming back in we'd like to think that supply and demand will come back into balance,". 

Wages were very much on his mind and the 0.3% increase, can be problematic as we said in March,with fears of further fueling inflation, and he added, "And that, therefore, wage inflation will moderate to still high levels of wage increases, but ones that are more consistent with 2% inflation. That's our expectation."

Meanwhile the American consumer, the driver of the US economy is in a party mode, and is spending and traveling, (at least those that can),and the increase in spending on  goods, versus services from the lockdown, can be felt, and major US air carriers are saying “get your tickets now folks, before the prices go up,and up.”

Then there is that pesky crowd of 23 million workers who don’t seem to want to fill employers needs for trained workers, some of who are maybe afraid of covid, or remain unvaccinated, or even those that are still looking for a better opportunity, that they pondered during the lockdown,and business closures. But, whatever the reason, they are not there and don’t seem to want to be there.

Yahoo Finance noted that, “Almost 500,000 workers decided to leave the workforce in April. The large decline is a concerning prospect for businesses that are facing one of the tightest labor markets in decades," Peter Essele, Head of Portfolio Management for Commonwealth Financial Network, said in an email Friday morning.” 

For the record there are 1.9 vacancies for every unemployed worker, but in a report where economists predicted a 300,000 increase the dilemma remains.

Among the higher numbers was that the job gains were led by leisure and hospitality at 78,000, and employment in restaurants and bars rocketed up to 44,000.

Transportation and warehousing shot up to 52,000 to keep up with demand, in an area that was worrisome to many, a few months ago.

The old adage of time healing all wounds may be true, but for the American economy, it’s good news, for now.

March Jobs Report show resiliency but worries of inflation

Resilience has proven to be the key component of the recovery of the US economy from the ravages of the Covid pandemic and Friday’s Jobs Report for March, underscores this, but the fly in the ointment is inflation, and more inflation, buoyed up by higher wages, that have continued to climb higher and higher, than in 40 years, bringing the matter to both a political, and an economic problem.

For those watchers of the marquee number, unemployment fell to 3.6, but again this was accompanied by higher wages, but with a robust increase is leisure and hospitality, retail and manufacturing, which hit, 112,000, 49,000, and 35,000; and, for the latter, a sizeable increase in a field that had been wobbly for some time, has given hope to many observers.

Much of the increase can be attributed to the increase in vaccination availability, if not always increased vaccinations, but enough to bring those who were worried in working in close quarters with others, and this can be attributable to the rise in retail jobs, but also the higher wages that employers are offering to meet demand.

Bringing some people from the sidelines also increased the payrolls, as much as the dollars behind them, and there has been grave concern that increased wages will be passed onto consumers with higher prices, and as we noted last month, many households are finding that they have eaten into their paychecks, especially by working families.

Add the lack of affordable housing in America’s large cities and the problem can become acute, for even high earning families as they face restrictions from established communities preventing expansions into existing housing stock.

The Brookings Institution noted in a recent report the lack of housing being built in certain areas that affects even those with higher wages, and holding professional degrees, and an added strain on the household budget.

For Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, wage increase is very much on his mind, and with some reservation earlier said, “The promise of wages moving up is a great thing,” after last month’s interest climb, but noted that they are “running at levels that are well above what would be consistent with 2 percent inflation — our goal — over time.”

Since then wages have shot up to 5.6 percent, over the past twelve months, higher than what Powell said at that time. And, while some economists in the past have suggested winnowing wages as a leveling tool, for inflation, those are not on the horizon with many employers leaning hard to find the right employee.

This is a hot labor market, say most , and, as The Wall Street Journal noted, "service costs, including rent and other housing expenses, are increasing rapidly."

Digging deeper, continued inflation, as a core problem, as well as recession, are also concerning, with continued demand by more affluent families for services, as well as goods, despite  a continuing problem with bottlenecks still  causing rifts.

This Thursday's CPI report, nervously anticipated by the White House and others with its figure of 8.5% increase made everyone nervous, and the measure of what people will pay for goods and services will hit those larger paychecks even harder, especially for lower income households.

Many observers are mentally pushing Powell to increase the interest rate even further than the one-half point anticipated in early May,

While President Biden extolled the virtues, and benefits of the March Report, noting, “Over the course of my presidency, our recovery has now created 7.9 million jobs — more jobs created over the first 14 months of any presidency in any term ever.  And that’s striking.,” and added, “In fact, there have been only three months in the last 50 years where the unemployment rate in America is lower than it is now.”

Those higher wages, as we have seen are contributors to increased inflation, by some, and for others a cut in their spending lowers the drive of the American economy, creating a conundrum, or a perfect storm for a recession.

Biden’s polls, now in the 40s, are as much a political concern, as an economic one, and with the Republicans nipping at his heels, before the November midterms, Biden is trying to broaden his efforts, in the eyes of the public, and the recent release of oil reserves has been one.

The Hill reported that “The White House on Thursday announced plans for the largest-ever release of oil from the United States’ strategic reserves. 

It said in a fact sheet that it would release an average of 1 million barrels per day for the next six months, resulting in a total release of about 180 million barrels.

In remarks on the plan on Thursday, President Biden called on the oil industry to produce more, while also criticizing industry profits. 

“Enough of lavishing excessive profits on investors and payouts and buybacks when the American people are watching, the world is watching,” Biden said. 

“This is not the time to sit on record profits. It’s time to step up for the good of your country, the good of the world, to invest in immediate production that we need to respond to Vladimir Putin, to provide some relief for your customers, not investors and executives,” he added.

Lael Brainard a Federal Reserve governor and candidate for the position of vice-chair, in remarks before a recent Wall Street Journal panel said, "Inflation is too high, and getting inflation down is going to be our most important task.

Meanwhile the March report also showed a negligible increase in labor force participation at 62.4 percent; and, equally the employment population ratio inches to 0.2 percent, which showed that while some did come from the sidelines, in certain industries, but not enough to move the dial, despite some economist’s assertions.

Black employment was at 6.2, lower than it was a year ago, but still higher than that of whites at 3.2, ,and adult women over age 20, was 3.3, little changed from last month, but better than 5.1 a year ago, with lack of child care, still the reason, for many..

For those with less than a high school degree, it was 5.2 versus 4.3 in February.

For those that were able to complete bachelor’s and professional degrees, many are loaded with debt, and with inflation added to debt repayment, the burden is acute, and many in the Democratic party are urging loan forgiveness, especially Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Chuck Schumer to extend the pause beyond the looming May deadline, and ultimately provide loan cancellation

In a letter to Biden, they along with other lawmakers, said, "The payment pause has been a significant federal investment throughout the pandemic, providing essential relief to millions of families during the economic and public health crisis and saving them an average of $393 per month," the letter asserted, later adding that most borrowers "are not financially prepared to shoulder another bill as they face skyrocketing costs for necessities like food and gas."

“The majority of Americans support you taking action; recent polling shows that over 60% of likely voters support continuing to pause student loan payments and canceling student debt, with support strongest among likely voters of color,” the letter added.

Figures show that at the end of the Fourth Quarter of 2021 is 1.7 trillion dollars, much of it held by Black students who borrow more to attend college, continue to borrow more while enrolled, and have a harder time paying it back, once working.

 

Updated Feb. 14, 2022 at 4:30 p.m. CST

Jackson hearings were a GOP opening salvo for midterms

 The recent Senate confirmation hearings for Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson had scores of critics bemoaning the severe questioning of the Supreme Court candidate, but despite assurances given to the chair, Sen. Dick Durbin of Illinois, that they would  behave in a professional manner, nothing of the sort occurred, and has been well documented, especially the behavior of Sens. Ted Cruz, Marsha Blackburn, and John Cornyn. 

This became obvious as they hit Jackson with a barrage of questions regarding hot button social topics, or, more accurately wedge issues, such as transgender youth, Critical Race Theory, or what they deemed as such, but this was really about the 2024 midterm election where those issues would be paramount, as the senators played to their base.

Joined by Sen. Josh Hawley of Missouri who was hellbent on her so-called leniency in sentencing non-producing child phonography possessors, was a definite dog whistle to the base that Democrats were soft on crime, an old trope, but one that was resurrected by Donald Trump repeatedly during his one term presidency.

The truth was that there were two cases out of seven that bore a closer look and that involved the crucial role of judicial oversight and analysis, and were only two, not the five that Hawley described, but as Factcheck.org pointed out, “Jackson’s sentences in five of the seven cases mentioned by Hawley were consistent with, or above, probation’s recommendation. The reality was that there were two of Jackson’s sentences were below the government and probation’s recommendations.”

Moreover, this bipartisan group “compared Jackson’s average sentence in those seven cases to the government prosecutors, who on average sought a minimum of 71 months. That means Jackson’s average was more than two years below the minimum.”

Underneath the political play was a seemingly frail woman who handled the barrage of questions, accusations, and pointed fingers, in a dignified manner; one that many Black professionals have come to experience, over a lifetime of job interviews, job performances; and, by Black women in particular, who, in recognition, have rallied to her cause.

As we were told, “Watching her brought back every nightmare from my corporate life, and service to the government. My heart bled for her.”

Listening to the audio, it was also clear that Judge Jackson had some delays, hesitation and even sighs, in her answers, or multiple attempts to answer; as she was constantly interrupted, when she tried, especially with Graham and his demand to state her faith, to which she flatly replied, “Protestant.”

Graham, perhaps not realizing, or maybe intentionally not remembering, that there was no religious test for lawmakers, continued on a rampage, as he later revisited a case of sour grapes for California Sen. Diane Feinstein's prior questioning of President Trump’s Supreme Court nominee Amy Coney Barrett, and her conservative Catholicism, with the signature tagline, ‘The dogma lives loudly within you.”

Graham’s level of chicanery was the opening salvo in the battle for control of the House, and Senate in the seven months leading to the midterm elections.

The Republican party, still stinging from the loss of the White House to Joe Biden, is now at a stalemate, in their attempt to regain the presidency as well as to retake the House and overcome the Senate.

As we’ve noted before the road ahead is paved with far less good intentions, than even realized, and earlier efforts had placed abortion on the hot seat, and centered by not only antiabortionists, but wearing the robes of gerrymandering to take states like Texas who had no overwhelming opposition to abortion, as a way to leapfrog over local positions.

Now, racism a la Ted Cruz, and his “racist babies” is tilting in the much maligned and mostly misunderstood realm of Critical Race Theory, which is taught in some colleges, and graduate school programs since the 1970s, but is hardly mainstream, in elementary schools.

That torch was clearly handed off this week to Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis with his legislative bill, titled the  “Parental Rights in Education” bill [which] prohibits teachers from leading classroom lessons on gender identity or sexual orientation for students in kindergarten through third grade. It also bans such lessons for older students unless they are “age-appropriate or developmentally appropriate, “ reported Politico.

DeSantis, of course is positioning himself as a 2024 presidential candidate, in case Trump decides, or is forced to not run; but, this bill and others, takes a relatively new phenomenon and upends it for political gain, thus proving that all politics are local.

While the bill has many moving parts,” it became apparent after the Virginia governor’s race, where Republican Glenn Younkin beat Terry McAuliffe in large part by pushing parental rights in education, that Florida Republicans had tapped into a growing sense of frustration from parents.”

This was sharply evident with Blackburn’s questioning of Jackson, when she asked, “What is a woman?”, and not satisfied with Jackson’s reply that she was not a biologist, the senator feigned genteel shock, and bewilderment.

Finally, the elephant in the room question: abortion, or more specifically Roe v. Wade, and with correspondingly conservative justices on the Supreme Court in recent memory, and with many pro-lifers wanting, and even expecting a reversal, Jackson was again the scapegoat.

The National Catholic Reporter noted that, “Jackson was asked a few times March 22 about her abortion views. Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., asked Jackson, as she has asked the last three court nominees, if Roe v. Wade, the court's 1973 decision legalizing abortion nationwide, was settled law. Jackson, as other nominees before her have done, agreed that the court's decision was a binding precedent.”

Sensing a possible trap, when “Later when she was asked by Sen. John Kennedy, R-La., if she has a personal belief on when life begins, she said she did.

"I have a religious belief that I set aside when I am ruling on cases," she told the committee.

With Blackburn rounding the coroner and questioning her for her belief should Roe be overturned, Jackson replied, she replied, as she would “as any other precedent.”

It’s not as if the November midterms are just around the corner, or are they? Graham has since said that he would not vote for Jackson’ ‘I will oppose her and I will vote ‘no’” Graham stated from the Senate floor, and weakened the Biden’s administration for bipartisan support, and to avoid a tie breaker from Vice-President Kamala Harris.

Meanwhile Maine Senator Susan Collins has said that she will vote yes for the judge, but cynics have noted a familiar pattern for her, when the die is cast, and she faces no great political loss, unlike her support for Brett Kavanaugh for the Supreme Court.

As we have noted before, it’s all over but for the fighting.

Fed interest rate hikes hits US: no more zeroes

 

Last week’s news of a hike, or rather a series of hikes, of the Fed interest rate gave some consolation to some people in some places, or to paraphrase Lincoln, to some of the people some of the time. It’s been clear for some time that inflation in the US had come to be the defining economic problem and after the Federal Reserve Bank had their two-day meeting there was rapt attention to what could be done to stem the tide of higher and higher prices on goods, that had been fed upon by consumer demand after the Covid lockdowns across the country.

With most Americans subsequently holding fat checking accounts, by not spending more that they could get from the supermarket, or the internet, and uncertainty abound, the flood gates were then thrown open, after the variants were tamed with vaccinations, and the lifting of mask mandates, the demands for new sofas, food processors, and the like became the norm.

Soon, production could not keep up with demand, as many of the overseas factories had been shuttered for fear of Covid, and ports were clogged with uncharted goods, due to a dearth of warehouse space and workers to unload.

At that time, it was thought to be transitional, and temporary but as the months grew it became a major economic problem, or as Sonai Desai Executive Vice President, chief investment officer, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income, told the Financial Times, “it’s the single most significant issue for America.”

The Fed has prepared to raise interest rates six more times this year, and five times in 2023, subject to change and Chair, Jerome Powell feels confident that the economy is durable enough to absorb these higher rates, designed to slow spending, as well as investments.

Observers, and media analysis, in part from The New York Times, have suggested that Powell  is hoping for a “soft landing,” while others have said that this is too little, too late, but with inflation reaching a 40 year high, desperate times called for desperate measures, says the old cliché.

Fueling all of these purchases are higher wages, as employers lure much needed workers. The issue, as seen by others, as well as the chair, is whether unemployment can remain low, with its recent figure of 3.8 percent, and some seeing this as optimistic.

Last fall the Financial Times noted that “labour infiltration” was becoming the norm, and cited Amazon as a major employer who identified the growing trend, along with McDonalds and Starbucks.

For Powell, it’s not only optimism but careful calibration by he, and members, to stave off a recession. And, that is no easy feat. 

Another feat is tapering the reserves, or asset purchases, which have long preoccupied GOP lawmakers; taking a look at what consumers can expect to face, is also of interest, for consumer expenditures fuel the American economy. 

FT also noted that “higher pay packages” were “showing wages and benefits rising at their fastest pace since 2001.”

As has been noted before, higher wages are offset by inflation causing a conundrum, if Powell wants to keep wages steady, but with the scheduled pay raises, tied to that goal, as well as avoiding recession, this is tricky business, for low to middling incomes, as Diane Swonk chief economist at Grant Thornton noted previously: “The costs for low-wage households to cover their commuting cost, grocery bills and rents are eating into the jump they have seen in wages.”

There is some good news on the financial front for consumers: “current federal student loan borrowers aren’t affected because those carry a fixed rate set by the government,” according to The New York Times; but those holding private loans can “expect to pay more.”

For those dependent on car ownership, that most have seen rise exponentially, can  expect to see an increase with average rates taking a rise to 4.39 in February, but some faith in the used car market has taken a decrease in interest rates from 7.83 percent, also, in February, down from 8.25 percent.

Think again about those aforementioned fattened bank accounts, yes, the bank “will pay more interest on deposits,” but not right away, with banking policies increasing rates, when they want increased deposits, and they have tons, ergo no incentive to do otherwise.

In a tilt to online banks they “pay better rates more quickly than larger institutions, according to Ken Tumin, founder of DepositAccounts.com . . ., according to The New York Times.

They also noted that CD’s can be poised to gain higher moves, again, especially with online banks; and, also equally true for money market mutual funds, with a corresponding rise from the feds.

Taking it all in, there are months ahead that will bear watching, taking into account both the expected and the unexpected. What happens, or doesn’t happen, especially with the invasion of Ukraine, is a deciding factor, and with possible shortages of grain, the road ahead for the US economy, not in isolation, but in concert with the world won’t make for an easy road, but this is a 21st century world.

Executive Vice President, Chief Investment Officer, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income

For US economy February Jobs Report roars in like a lion

It might not yet be March Madness, but the February Jobs report issued this first Friday in March has given wholly, and not unexpected, news to economists and the White House as they have grappled with a menu of worries, the war In Ukraine, as the top international issue; but the recovering jobs market, got a shot in the arm, a second one, if you count January’s, that gave a whopper, minus the fries to that select group.

Now with 678,000 non farm jobs the US economy can see a stronger path forward from the pre pandemic, with its loss of 10 million plus jobs that hit the nation with what has now resulted in, as The Hill noted, “Unprecedented demand for workers and resilient consumer spending helped power another strong month of job growth.”

While nothing is guaranteed, and with the war in Ukraine’s potential to drain oil reserves and affect the world economy, the bump in service hiring alone might be the banner, which has led those lagging industries.

Specifically, that gain of 179,000 in leisure and hospitality, and a corresponding gain in 124,000 jobs in bars and restaurants, a significant employer across the US, but especially in urban areas such as New York, Chicago, Los Angeles and Miami can give some solace to their workers.

Couple that with the less deleterious effect of the Omicron variant and decreasing case and hospitalizations of all Covid cases, and where in many large cities, the dropping of mask mandates, and vaccine requirements, the die seems to be cast for a robust jobs outlook.

While manufacturing is slack, construction increased by 60,000 after flat numbers in January.

One important data point, to use the colloquialism of the day, is that labor force participation was dormant, and while there was some movement of other workers returning to the workforce this is a key area that economists look to measure the temperature of the market.

There is some conjecture that many of the people who have stayed on the bench are older retirees, some who have not seen the benefits of masking mandates lifted, or those too unsure of a healthy and well ventilated environment conducive for working shoulder to shoulder, or those that have simply gotten too comfy in retirement.

For many Americans the higher wages received by desperate employers has increased worries for the inflationary prices, most notably at the gas pump where we have seen signs that seem like slot machine windows, where an average gallon of gas in Chicagoland has hit over $4.00, and in some cases, $ 4.65, an increase of a dollar, from last week.

A quick trip to the supermarket has seen increases in almost every category, and even the venerable Dollar Tree, justifiably proud of their one dollar price points are now $1.25, and yet some people, according to The New York Times: “despite strong job numbers, polls show the public thinks the U.S. economy is headed in the wrong direction.”

They also reported that some famous economists, namely the Nobel winner Joseph Stiglitz, said “we are not facing an inflation crisis.” 

Or, at least not like we had in the 1970s. But, that might not allay fears of the public, especially for an older public that remembers those days, and with the increasing aggression in the Ukraine, fuel might become an issue for the economy and also President Biden, who after his bump in the polls after the State of the Union address could face closer scrutiny, and criticism, much like Chicago mayors do after snow storms.

Despite all efforts “People are unhappy about inflation,” said former top adviser and economist Jason Furman, who also advised President Obama, added that rising wages are now being eaten up by higher prices.

Joined by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who is going to raise interest rates for the first time in years, later in March, as a bulwark against the rising tide of inflation.

With a hot economy some are saying like Chris Waller, a Fed governor, that he is willing to “support more aggressive rate increases .  . “.

As a refresh, high inflation begins with high prices and rising wages. And, some economists are predicting that wages may stagnate, thus creating the perfect storm, last seen in the 1970s.

Average hourly wages rose nearly 5.1 percent over the last year, down from January’s 5.7 percent, as employers tried hard to lure employees to handle increased demand for goods and services.

For women, Blacks, and Latinx people the needle has hardly moved since January, and for the former, the lack of affordable child care, still carries weight. Until Congress can agree on  a plan forward without the politicization of policy, women will not be returning to work in great numbers.

Labor Force Participation has stayed flat at 62.3 and that worries some who would like to see a higher number, but as we have seen there are the happily retired, and those who, especially in service jobs, might not want to return to what they see as a still dangerous workplace, working shoulder to shoulder.

Another monetary concern is affordable housing and has resulted in many people leaving large urban areas in search of affordable housing as well as a slower pace of life. But, with housing especially in the American south, being cheaper, that leaves a void for a basic urban necessity.

The Brookings Institution has noted in a recent report the lack of housing being built in these areas affects even those with higher wages and professional degrees, with minimal housing built in affluent areas despite the desire from this group, but resisted by current residents.

They cited San Francisco as an example of adding “only one home for every seven new jobs created between 2010 and 2015, while rents increased more than 40% during the same period.”

The power of existing residents make their preferences known as better heeled and affluent, people call the shots, limiting housing for low and even moderate income families.

While these issues, especially inflation, play a role in how much to celebrate, as Daniel Zhao told The Hill, "Ultimately, however, today’s jobs report helps build confidence in the resilience of the recovery and its ability to continue driving jobs growth despite unanticipated headwinds.”