Heads up for a boost in the December 2024 Jobs Report

The news is in, as of Friday, 256,000 non farm jobs were created for the month of December, an unexpected surprise for the United States economy, and a boon to to those in government, and for job seekers, Accompanying the good news is the unemployment rate of 4.1 percent, giving solace to many, and support towards the soft landing that Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Fed Chair Jerome Powell so long predicted, and hoped for.

Consistent with that news is the unemployment rate of 4.1 percent, and accompanied by the usual heavy hitters: leisure and hospitality, government, education, and construction giving weight to that old canard, a resilient American economy, which while overworked, seems to be the label that can best be applied to the current state of the world’s largest economy.

Factoring in the good news is that it is highly unlikely that the Federal Reserve Bank will cut interest rates further than it already has, and as the Fed noted in mid December, “recent indications suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace,” and most importantly, ”The Committee seeks to achieve maxim employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run.”

At that time they “decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by ⅓ percentage point to 4 to 1/4 point to 4 to ½ percent.”

Giving an overall look most economists feel that there is nothing wrong with this report, and President Joe Biden, in a statement from the White House, said, “Although I inherited the worst economic conditions in decades with unemployment over 6 percent when I took office we’ve had the lowest average unemployment rate of any administration in 50 years with unemployment at 4.1 percent as I have.”

As The New York Times notes, this report shows, “renewed vigor after months of caution among both workers and businesses.” 

Perhaps most significantly, and probably speaking for many economists, and observers, was Thomas Simons, chief U.S. economist at the banking firm Jefferies, who added to the Times report, "It is hard to say anything negative about the details of this report.”

Amidst the robust report there is the slight but statistically significant lower rate for women in the workforce to 3.8 percent, from 3.9 %, and in general for women’s employment increased to 57.4 %, and for Black women there was a decrease of unemployment to 5.4 %.

Consistent with that, the closely watched household survey was very strong and grew to nearly a quarter of a million people, with fewer people out of work over the last six months.

Close on the heels of that is the lowered jobless claims reported on Thursday, but there was both acknowledgement and a cautionary note reported by Yahoo Finance: [while] “ Simons said that ”there's a disconnect between labor demand and weekly jobless claims, plus, "A mentor of mine in the past always cautioned me, 'Don't try to predict employment with an unemployment statistic.'”

"Additionally, he points out that the figures don't fully capture businesses' reluctance to lay off workers due to concerns about future talent acquisition. However, he suggests this dynamic may shift and recommends monitoring the labor metrics of small businesses and startups,” for that fuller picture.

Encouraging was the Labor Force Participation Rate which for those aged 25 to 54 years old decreased to 83.4, capturing data for those working part time, and seeking full time work, or those not working, a half point lower than the 83.9 % than last year. These figures are the lowest since March, and looking at a four week average, and with data capturing points both high and low, their descent was by 3,500 to 232,250.

The heavy hitters ar as we have seen in previous months: Education and health care at 80,000; retail (may be a positive blip due to seasonal hiring) of 43,4000; leisure and hospitality at 43,000; government at 38,000, and business services, that catch all at 28,000; with weak link being manufacturing which showed a loss of 13,000, but may be attributed to weather conditions, as a few reports back there was an increase.

For Black women there was a significant decrease in unemployment and nbc4washington.com reported that, “For Black women, the unemployment rate dropped to 5.4% in December. That is down from 5.9% in November, when the jobless rate rose nearly a percentage point for the cohort. The labor force participation rate, which tracks the population employed or seeking work, inched up to 62.4%..”

“Among Black workers overall, the unemployment rate also declined in December, slipping to 6.1%. That compares to a rate of 6.4% in November and 5.7% in October.”

"There were some concerns about the Black unemployment rate going up," said Elise Gould, senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute, referring to November's uptick. "It's still significantly higher than for other groups — and that's still a concern — but nothing in this report jumps out as particularly problematic."

Associated Press reported that those receiving unemployment benefits “fell to their lowest level in nearly a year last week, pointing to a still healthy labor market with historically low layoffs.”

And, for that week, despite the cautionary notes, there was a “four week average of claims, which evens out the week to week ups and downs, fell by 10,250 to 213,000.”

Pulling the camera back a bit, we can see that through November U.S. employers added 180,000 jobs a month for 2024, but down from the “go go” year of 2023 when there were 231,000, but no one can say that this past year was bad by any means.

While a proxy for layoffs, the joblessness claims, AP noted, but also significantly reported, “those have remained below pre pandemic levels.”

The Labor Department report also showed that wages increased by 0.3 % over the month, giving a leg up on inflation, still not at the desired 2% mandate for the Federal Reserve.

Despite that mandate, and according to Bloomberg News, “Americans expect prices will climb at an annual rate of 3.3% over the next five to 10 years, up from the 3% expected last month, according to the University of Michigan’s preliminary January survey released Friday. They also see costs rising 3.3% over the next year, up 0.5 percentage point from December.”

“Nearly one-third of consumers spontaneously mentioned tariffs, up from 24% in December and less than 2% prior to the election,” Joanne Hsu, director of the survey, said in a statement. “These consumers generally report that tariff hikes will pass through to consumers in the form of higher prices.”

“Inflation expectations climbed across many demographic groups, particularly lower-income Americans. More concerning, 22% of respondents reported that buying big-ticket goods now would enable them to avoid future price hikes. That matches the prior month as the highest since 1990, the report showed.”

Before we dive into the political angles and there are many, a quick note about retail figures, they are showing also as a predictor of permanent employment, since they often are the pathway for permanent employment; but, this might be conjecture on some observers who state that women with less than 2 years of post secondary education may be headed for a loss, while that may be getting ahead of ourselves since we have seen an increase in employment for women, and the question may hinge on future efforts by the incoming administration of Donald Trump.

As we wrote last month, “The elephant in the room are the proposed tariffs of 25 percent, on Canada, Mexico, and even higher for China, and has been widely reported to have a detrimental effect on the US economy, and consumer buying which is the bedrock of the American economy. 

Suggestions that these are negotiating tools for Trump are, at this point speculation, but definitely a cause for concern.  If the so-called DOGE efforts at reducing government waste, a laudable goal, but if it includes layoffs, those could have a detrimental effect on national employment.”

Another facet is that Trump, no fan of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will try to fire him, not technically possible as the Fed operates independently of the presidency, but the recent resignation of Vice President of Supervision Michael Barr to prevent what he felt would be the new administration to keep the Fed from being politicized, or to use the vernacular, he saw a target on his back.

“I strongly value the independence of the Fed,” Barr told POLITICO on Monday shortly after he announced his plans to resign as vice chair of supervision. He said he chose to quit as vice chair — while maintaining his seat as a Fed governor — because he “was worried that the risk of a dispute over the position would end up being a political distraction for the Federal Reserve and for me, and that that would end up detracting from our ability to serve our mission.”

While Trump has never publicly commented on the Barr resignation, or any intentions at weakening the independence of the Fed, there were discussions during the campaign, and as Politico noted:

“Throughout the 2024 campaign, Trump advisers and allies floated several ideas as to how he might blunt the Fed’s independence in his second term. Stephen Miran, Trump’s pick to lead the Council of Economic Advisers, and Dan Katz, who’s slated to be chief of staff at Treasury, published a paper calling for changes that would allow the president to dismiss Fed governors at will. Trump’s Treasury nominee Scott Bessent proposed appointing a “shadow Fed chair” to provide forward guidance on rates while Powell serves out his term as chair. (That idea has already been abandoned.).”

While there is some disagreement among academics on how weakening the independence of the Fed could work, it's clear, that for some, it’s all over but for the fighting, according to an old expression from the American South.

November Jobs Report Rebounds

Within a month, the US economy has turned the corner after the weakened jobs report for October that contained not one, but two hurricanes and a major strike that laid off 33,000 workers from Boeing, and while economists felt that was an aberration, Fridays report from the US Labor Dept. showed a healthy rebound to 227,000 non farm jobs, exceeding what most predicted to be at best, 200,000; but, the great news was that wages increased to 4 percent, and again exceeded inflation at 2.8 percent.

For those that have been watching the dial on the Federal Reserve, two things are apparent: one, that another interest rate cut is on the horizon, and two, the soft landing for the economy that critics derided, has seemingly  come to fruition.

Leading the job gains are health care and education at 79,000, 33,000 for government and 26,000 in the catch all of business services that have given a push to those related services.

Labor Force Participation remained the same at 83.5 percent, with a slight drop from two months ago when it was 85 percent,  

Unemployment showed an acceptable 4.2 percent, slightly higher than what was thought to be 4.1 percent, but does fit well with expectations of a slow down hiring, and some observers seeing this as somewhat inevitable.

“RSM chief economist Joe Brusuelas told Yahoo Finance that Friday's report reflects a "remarkably calm labor market" that is at full employment after accounting for October's distortions.”

That presages what most are seeing as positive gains after the October aberration.

One cloud over a calm sea was that retail hiring slipped to 28,000, that some are credited to online sales which have remained strong, even after the pandemic, but others note Marketplace are attributing this to the rise in automation, which on one hand has made life easier, and more productive for workers, but on the other, decreased the need for more workers, both behind and in front of the curtain, as anyone who shops the big box stores know, where there is one central checkout for several departments, and in one in which human is present there are the self checkout lanes, and even though derided by some Wal Mart shoppers does get you in and out of the store on a busy Saturday.

Returning to the Federal Reserve, Yahoo Finance also reported that,“Entering the print, markets were widely expecting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point in December. As of Friday morning, markets are pricing in a nearly 87% chance the Fed cuts rates in December, up from a 66% chance seen a week ago, per the CME FedWatch Tool.”

"For the Fed, these numbers are going to be right in the spot of what they were looking for and they're comfortable with continuing easing policy at least at the December meeting," Citi senior global economist Robert Sockin told them. "This doesn't change the narrative that likely rates are restrictive and they have to at least come down a bit more at a gradual pace."

This may be good news for home buyers who have faced lowered mortgage interest rates. Zillow has noted that the 30 year fixed rate has ratcheted down by five basis points to 6.24; and, if the December 18 meeting of the Fed shows another interest rate decrease, things can look up for homeowners.

An oft quoted rule is that mortgage rates decrease with a strong economy and decrease with a weekend one, and they are already showing signs of trending downward.

While the overall report has been greeted warmly, there are some that are sending a cautionary note, especially regarding unemployment and the November unemployment figure of 4.2 percent, and CNN reported: “However, the unemployment rate ticked up last month to 4.2% from 4.1%, and a growing number of jobless Americans are taking longer to find a job — a reflection of a pullback in hiring. People are staying unemployed, on average, for 23.7 weeks (more than five months), the highest duration since April 2022, according to data released Friday.”

“The labor market is healthy even though it is, in the long term, trending in an unhealthy direction,” Noah Yosif, chief economist for the American Staffing Association, told CNN in an interview Friday. “What we’re seeing is really a K-shaped duality of outcomes for the labor market: It’s good if you have a job, but it’s very, very difficult if you don’t have a job.”

Layoffs have been mild in comparison and taking a wide range look, we can see that,  “With November’s gains, the US has added jobs for 47 consecutive months, making it the third-longest period of employment expansion on record.”

There is conconcer that if the declines increase a snowball effect could take hold. But, of course, much depends on the incoming Trump administration and what changes the president could implement, especially with control of the White House and both the Senate and the House.

The pending deportations of illegal immigrants, in whatever shape, or form could greatly affect the economy, especially in construction, where nearly one thirds of laborers are possible illegal immigrants, not to mention farm workers, long a haven for undocumented workers.

The elephant in the room are the proposed tariffs of 25 percent, on Canada, Mexico, and even higher for China, and has been widely reported have a detrimental effect on the US economy, and consumer buying which is the bedrock of the American economy. 

Suggestions that these are negotiating tools for Trump are, at this point speculation, but definitely a cause for concern.  If the so-called DOGE efforts at reducing government waste, a laudable goal, but if it includes layoffs, those could have a detrimental effect on national employment.

Aftermath: The Defeat of Kamala Harris

Just before last Tuesday’s election, things looked great for Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee to succeed President Joe Biden after his decision in July not to run for reelection. After that announcement, and her entry into the race she managed to energize the base, and her infectious smile and masterful detail was definitely a threat to her rival former President Donald Trump, and her rallies attracted huge crowds, waving, clapping with visible energy.

Harris had outspent Trump to the tune of $1.4 billion, but widely identified herself as the underdog, and with the increasing attention given to him, this was smart politicking, especially as well as realism since many polls identified the two as neck and neck, in some instances 50/50 and in others, a notch, or two, above each other.

She definitely ran a better, stronger, and faster campaign than her first run for the presidency in 2020, where management lacked strength and the capacity to prepare her for facts and figures. But, this time, her efforts were not merely photogenic, but substantial as she managed the landscape of interviews and statements, with a staff that was sharper in their handling, than many other modern presidential campaigns.

In this sense, Harris definitely picked up the torch from Biden who suffering from the flu, stumbled badly in his debate with Trump, and her background as attorney general of California, and her legal training, prepared her for her debate with Trump, who seemed old, enfeebled and unprepared as she steam rolled over him with both polity and grace.

It was always a closely contested race, and many had predicted a razor thin win for Harris, who had to contend with both her gender, as well as her Indian and Jamaican ethnicity’, which she wisely did not capitalize on, having learned the lessons of the defeated Hillary Clinton in 2016.

Election night brought more than a case of anxiety for her supporters, but championed a victory, no matter how thin, as she was lampooned, cursed, and ridiculed by Trump and his running mate, Sen. JD Vance of Ohio, as they blamed her for every ill, both real and imagined, for the last four years, with the exception of the common cold.

As the returns came in all were watching the seven critical swing states that could deliver her the needed 270 electoral votes, and as North Carolina, there was still optimism as Harris had not expected to lead in the Tar Heel state; but, as the evening wore on, and tired fans went to bed, they woke to the news that Trump had won three key battleground states, Wisconsin, Michigan and the highly coveted Pennsylvania.

Harris supporters holding vigil at her alma mater, Howard University in Washington, DC, were deflated in their misery. And, while the book is yet to be written on why, opinions have rolled in from every corner: some blaming Biden for not dropping out of the race earlier, with the Democrats then holding a primary, to sexism and misogyny, to Trump being the devil known.

There has been some speculation that many said they would vote for her, but then stayed at home, either undecided, or worried about being denied the right to vote by a well-financed GOP juggernaut; and, as we saw in Georgia there was an attempt to demand hand counts, plus the electric ballot boxes, and also to other states where election officials were sued in specious claims of voter fraud.

Now that the dust has somewhat settled, we are seeing that there was an edge, not momentous, not enough for Trump to claim a mandate, but an increase in votes from the burgeoning Latino populations whose working-class roots, in many cases, focused them on kitchen table issues that dominated their budgets, such as high grocery prices, and rent, despite the fact that US presidents do not control them.

There was also a younger male Black population that felt the Trump years were kinder to their wallets, based more on perception than fact. Black voters overall voted 8 out of 10 for Harris, but this was down from 9 out of 10 in 2020 for Biden.

Significantly, it was younger Black males, 19 to 45 years old that gave Trump the edge, double the amount that he got in 2020, and roughly double the amount that he got in 2020.

Harris got a lead from Latino voters, but down from the 6 out of 10 that Biden received in 2020.

Race, always an issue in American life, and especially in politics, showed that White voters, always the majority of American voters, voted in higher numbers in those three swing states, and it was especially notable with older White voters, particularly those in rural areas, a fact which had been determined by many pollsters.

As the Associated Press reported, “white voters make up a bulk of the voting electorate in the United States, and they did not shift their support significantly at the national level compared to 2000.”

Interestingly enough they noted that White support for Harris was about the same for Biden, four out of ten voted for Harris.

Much has been made of the increased Latino vote, but it may not quite be the juggernaut that it seems

In the past, social class and race were clarion calls for the Democrats had definitely relied on working class voters decades ago, and Blacks had been a mainstay since Civil Rights struggles and victories in the 1960s.

Taking into consideration what was then and what now, an important factor was the education of the electorate, both for Trump, as well as Harris. The base for the former had always capitalized on those Whites, especially rural people without college degrees, and an early CNN poll showed that those that had college degrees, or some college, tended to vote for Harris and less for Trump, far less.

Not to be overlooked  in this equation is the low level of information that fueled much of those voters, that led them to embrace the accusations by Trump, and Vance, that legal Haitian immigrants, in Ohio were abducting and eating pet dogs and cats; a claim that Vance later admitted to CNN anchor Dana Bash was false, but he deemed necessary to get media attention to the plight of American workers.

A durable myth for younger Blacks, and even some of their elders, was that Biden, and all presidents, set the prices of groceries and other durable goods; but also not knowing that Trump had given a brief and temporary tax cut for the average income Americans, but a near permanent, and much deeper cut for corporations.

As a letter writer to the New York Times noted somewhat  ruefully, had they been better educated critical thinking skills would have been utilized to analyze these falsehoods, or at the very least, read the more reliable media reports that showed them to be untruthful.

Added to this was the deep well of lies, of which the pet eating was just one example from Trump, and his MAGA followers, joined by the earlier claim by QANON that John Kennedy, Jr, was still alive and would be Trump’s running mate, while some even gathered in Dealey Plaza, the sight of his father’s assassination in Dallas,waiting for him to reappear.

Even further afield was a claim that Democrats were responsible for hurricane Milton, by “seeding” the clouds to produce the devastating event, for the sole intention of preventing southerners, White Southerners, from voting for Trump.

Cultural myths accompanied these outlandish claims, and one of the most salient was that Harris was going to allow federal inmates to receive gender change surgeries at taxpayer expense; a position that she did not run on, but based on statements, she made in 2019, for legalized treatments for gender dysphoria, and that one surgery was performed after a lawsuit on behalf of the prisoner.

Redolent of the earlier bathroom wars, the issue of transgender people became fodder for ridicule and stereotyping Democrats as being out of touch with “real” Americans.

Added to this, by Trump supporters, were profane and misogynist statements leveled at Harris, including racial stereotypes, as “stupid” and “lazy” and even calling her the ‘C” word.

Much of his base laughed and applauded at these remarks, but as we noted in 2016, this was promulgated by  fear-based politics, from the playbook that he used then, and with this recent campaign.

These statements often fell on the ears of some Black men, especially those with conservative and biblically held gender beliefs, coupled with sexism, and the disbelief that a woman could be president, ironic thst those beliefs translated to votes for Trump, and with the matriarchy of many Black communities, irony ruled; despite the appeals of former President Barack Obama.

There was also voter apathy, and even abandonment, from part of this group as we heard a conversation on the bus from one Black man who said, “I have never voted, and never will.”

Hearing this we thought of those violent and bloody battles that American Blacks faced for the right to vote in the 1960s, a fact that was broadcast on the BBC when its program host said just before last Tuesday, “universal suffrage did not come to America until 1965, and yes, you heard that right.”  

Moving to the disinformation, a casual glance at the social media platform X gives Trump supporters plenty of ammunition to thwart Harris from vile and demeaning comments about supposed sexual behavior with Willie Brown to lewd dancing, and even a hilarious clip of Vance blaming her for the price of eggs at $4.00 per dozen while he held a two dozen carton, but a sign in the background showed  a price of $2.99 a dozen, as his young son, who accompanied him, tried frantically, to point out his error.

It was a bit rich to try and portray Harris as a sexual renegade with Trump’s multiple marriages, where he was unfaithful, and frequently entered the dressing rooms of his pageant beauty queens when he thought they would be undressed; and notably his sexual encounter with porn star Stormy Daniels while his wife was pregnant with their son Baron.

Of course no one can forget his claim of grabbing women by the genitals on Access Hollywood, and that they let him because he was a celebrity. But, his supporters seem to forget all of this as they see him as a political savior to return the United States to its glory days, much as Russian President Vladimir Putin claims to restore his country to its Imperial past; and, a man he sincerely admirers along with anther authoritarian leader Viktor Orban, prime minister of Hungary.

His admiration for authoritarian leaders across the world, including Hitler, according to John Kelly, his former chief of staff, and a point of criticism by Vance before he aligned himself with Trump.

A brief look back at Trump’s earlier claims during his first run for office as he untruthfully categorized Mexican immigrants as rapists and murderers, it’s clear to see that the playbook of that time was still in evidence, with Vance much like comedian Johnny Carson’s sidekick Ed McMahon, on the old Tonight show, providing backup, often comedic as we’ve seen.

Lies as we have seen have been part and parcel of Trump’s candidacies and as historian Ruth Ben Ghiat has noted, “The number of documented falsehoods he uttered as president increased from 5.9 a day in 2017 to an average of 22 a day in 2019, for a total of 16,241 in his first three years in office.”

We can expect more in his second non consecutive term, and If we take all of the false claims, the misbeliefs of those who voted for Trump, and his past administration together, it says less about Harris, than it does how American voters both receive and process information, no matter how truthful. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Win, lose or draw: Trump versus Harris

After what has seemed an eternity, the 2024 presidential election is here. In the closely held contest between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, it’s game on, and the stakes are high for Trump is seeking not only to regain the Oval Office, but a return to the tenets of his previous term:  anti immigration, anti trans rights, anti civil rights for Black Americans and name calling plus shaming and profaning all who oppose him.

Harris is looking for a restoration, of sorts, of the ideals last espoused by former President Barack Obama, taking a humanist stance that serves the public with an enhancement of American values: equality for all, immigration reform, common sense gun reform laws, economic justice and reproductive rights to name but a few.

In the aftermath of the candidate’s televised debate, it would be hard to imagine that the American electorate is still undecided on who to vote for; yet, there are those independent voters estimated to be about 5 percent who are the target of Trump and Harris.

For the last week both candidates have been crisscrossing the battle states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Nevada, and Arizona, to name a few, to persuade  those that might give them the winning edge.

Any presidential election is ultimately a numbers game, with 270 electoral votes needed to secure the White House, and these last few weeks polls have prompted intensive actions, but while polls have attempted to outdo each other with predictions on the winner, they are not, in fact, predictors.

A look back in history shows a poll that became the infamous headline of the Chicago Daily Tribune which blared, “Dewey defeats Truman” and the photo of a grinning Harry Truman after he won the presidency; all polls are, in and of themselves, a snapshot at a given time of what a slice of the electorate is thinking, not a predictor of outcomes. 

While a liberal, even progressive, ideology has held sway for the Harris camp, it’s the same old playbook for Trump as he brandishes his strongman authoritarian style blaming migrants for every social ill in the United States, accusing them of polluting the bloodlines of Americans, and in an egregious example is the case of Haitian immigrants in Springfield, Ohio, which he accuses of abducting and eating pet animals, and ducks, from local waters. 

This is an absolutely false assertion, but it lives large in the playbook, as Trump’s base eats it up; despite his running mate JD Vance admitting in a  CNN interview that it was false, but needed to alert the media of the crisis of illegal immigration, even though the Haitians are legal immigrants under the federal TPS program.

All of thich is a continuation of the politics of fear, as we noted in 2016 when Trump won the presidency:

“His clarion call to a base of angry and older white men - who made up over 60% of his vote, gave credence to the cultural, racial and educational divide that has marked the United States for over two decades. As they watched the progressive and liberal legislators, and legislation, give power to women, blacks, and gays, to their consternation, they voted with near religious fervor on Tuesday. This was indeed, some felt, their last stand to stop the final anathema: a female president, especially, the spouse of the often despised Bill Clinton.”

Harris and the Democrats have tried to counter these lies with factual refutations, yet oftentimes it seems that Trump supporters are willing to ignore the facts. Some wags have called Trump “Teflon Don” for the way these refutations and criticisms have rolled off his back.

The recent hurricanes in Florida and nearby southeastern states have even prompted the lie that the Democrats deliberately caused the hurricane through some type of scientific hocus pocus to prevent Trump supporters in those areas from voting for him, an idea propagated by Georgia lawmaker, Marjorie Taylor Greene,

Immigration Denigration

Trump recently held a rally In New York at Madison Square Garden where he garnered even more negative blowbacks, but this time in response to featured Texas based stand-up comedian Tony Hinchcliffe who made a series of racist statements about Harris, and referred to Puerto Rico, a US possession as a “a floating island of garbage,”and according to The Hill,  “prompting some members of the GOP, like Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R-N.Y.), who is Puerto Rican, to come out against the remarks.”

To add insult to injury, “the comedian also made a crude joke about Latinos in which he said “they love making babies too. Just know that. They do. They do. There’s no pulling out. They don’t do that. They come inside. Just like they did to our country.”

It seems self defeating If Trump wants to capture the votes of 36 million Hispanci votes, and the Trump campaign might have just realized that since they have pushed back on Hinchcliffe remarks, and some GOP lawmakers have gone on record, as reported, in protest:

“I’m proud to be Puerto Rican. My mom was born and raised in Puerto Rico,” D’Esposito wrote on the social platform X. “It’s a beautiful island with a rich culture and an integral part of the USA. The only thing that’s ‘garbage’ was a bad comedy set. Stay on message.”

Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-Fla.), who was born in Cuba but raised in part in Puerto Rico, said on X that she was “disgusted” by Hinchcliffe’s remarks. “This rhetoric does not reflect GOP values,” she said to the media.

Also, reported by The Hill: “The Trump campaign, too, has distanced itself from the comedian’s rhetoric. Karoline Leavitt, a spokesperson for the Trump campaign, said on “Fox & Friends” on Monday that “it was a comedian who made a joke in poor taste.”

“Obviously, that joke does not reflect the views of President Trump or our campaign, and I think it is sad that the media will pick up on one joke that was made by a comedian, rather than the truths that were shared by the phenomenal list of speakers that we had,” she said.

After publicly condemning the remarks, Harris’s running mate, Gov. Tim Walz, Hinchcliffe replied to Walz with the following statement:

“These people have no sense of humor,” he wrote. “Wild that a vice presidential candidate would take time out of his ‘busy schedule’ to analyze a joke taken out of context to make it seem racist. I love Puerto Rico and vacation there. I made fun of everyone … watch the whole set. I’m a comedian Tim … might be time to change your tampon.”

That’s scant consolation for the voters that the campaign wants to court, and a deflection from insulting a major voting bloc, but one in keeping with how Trump’s people respond to negative press.

Reuters reported that, “Still, some Trump allies were less concerned. The former president and his allies have leaned into personal insults and racist rhetoric in the campaign's final months, but his standing in the polls has not deteriorated.”

Voter Disenfranchisement

Hovering in the background is the specter of voter disenfranchisement that has been a legacy of the pre civil rights area in America with echoes of voter registration drives, the death of three of the “Freedom Riders” and countless civil and federal lawsuits and legislation, that has unfortunately devolved into the US Supreme Court repeal of the preclearance act in 2013, in Shelby County v. Holder, which opened the doors to weakening the Voting rights act of 1965.

Ominously, there have been threats against poll workers, demands for ballot boxes to be broken open and hand counted to “prevent” errors,which would result in more errors, including worker fatigue after a long day.

In a previous post we quoted:  “Aided by technology, conservative groups are pumping out mass challenges to plant falsehoods, and in another battleground state, Michigan”, in random lawsuits.

David Becker, founder and executive director of the center for Election Innovation & Research, a nonpartisan organization that advises local election officials nationwide, told The Reflector, “When you see efforts to do mass challenges in the midst of the presidential primaries and months before a major election, i've got to wonder whether the intent is to create chaos and confusion amongst voters rather than legitimate list maintenance.”

Recent moves by the Georgia election Board to do hand counts, and other measures designed to slow the certification process, disenfranchise voters, and other last minute maneuvers have been blocked by Georgia judges.

With the close election Republicans are desperate to win and have said that foreign nationals will vote in the election with coordination by the Democratic party, and while such falsehoods are being spread, there is no evidence of that; and, the likelihood of a foreign national voting in any election and exposing themselves to fines, and arrest, is a definite barrier, especially to those that might be in the country illegally.

“After the 2016 election, the Brennan Center for Justice, which advocates for voting rights, surveyed local election officials in 42 jurisdictions with high immigrant populations and found just 30 cases of suspected noncitizens voting out of 23.5 million votes cast, or 0.0001%,” reported NPR in late October.

Topping the list of lies that the Trump campaign has promoted is the continuation of the BIG lie that the 2020 election was rigged to put Joe Biden in the White House. 

It’s so pervasive that millions of supporters believe it, and their numbers seem to increase exponentially each week; and  Vance has refused to, even when asked point blank, to tell the truth. In fact, it has become a politically useful falsehood.

Migrants as political tools

Immigration, both legal and illegal has become, over the years, a useful tactic used by the GOP to appeal to its base, and the fear stoked in Trump’s campaign in 2016 that Mexico was sending rapists to the United States has stuck, and has been extended to those seeking asylum from Honduras, El Saalvador and Venezuela has now become the top issue for Republicans.

Notably, it was Texas Gov. Gregg Abbot who sent 102,000 migrants to so-called “sanctuary cities” across the country, and spent $148 million to do so. Using people fleeing from poverty, violence and political instability as pawns increased his profile, but was condemned by many humanitarians, and the governments of those jurisdictions that received them, some of whom, like Chicago, spent $1.5 million each day for their care.

Race had a great deal to do with it, and as one person told us, “You wouldn’t see this as problematic if they had been Swedish,” and noted that Chicago, who struggled to find housing and food for thousands of Venezeuelans and their children, easily accommodated Ukranians, but then they were white not brown.

The consequences of these calculated actions have also resulted in Ohio Haitians facing fear, and in response some schools were closed and some business owners, who hired them, were threatened.

While no one can say that racial prejudice has not been a part of American history, that same history has shown what is known as nativism, seen most prominently in the 1860s during the Draft Riots in New York City in 1863 where Irish immigrants were drafted to fight in the Civil War, rather than the wealthy (who used proxies), and the subsequent mele involved violence and extended to the death of many African Americans as well, identified as the cause for the war draft.

This same level of nativism has continued, not just with Trump and his “America First” platform, but was preceded by the legendary aviator Charles Lindbergh, who along with author Kathleen Norris, and others, first created the term, and the movement.

The politics of fear was writ large with chants  of “Build the Wall” that still resonates with many of the MAGA crowd.

Trump has said that he will use mass deportation to remove migrants and immigrants from the southern border and The Independent has reported that “Donald Trump is considering withholding federal police grants to local agencies that refuse to carry out his mass deportation plan, a report claims,” to skirt possible lawsuits based on their conversations with NBC News.

The Biden-Harris administration has faced enormous challenges in dealing with an increase in migration to the southern border, with some feeling that the new administration would be more tolerant of immigration, and especially those in an urgent need to escape, even crossing the dangerous Darien Gap.

Immigration, which has been noted many times, across several media platforms has been long need of reform and faced its last legislative effort in 1986, and titled, “the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986, made it illegal to hire or recruit illegal immigrants, while also legalizing some 2.7 million undocumented residents who entered the United States before 1982.”

A recent bipartisan bill that would have helped start a new path for immigration was defeated by Republicans under Trump’s direct order.

It would have provided, as the Harris campaign has noted, “the strongest reform in decades. The legislation would have deployed more detection technology to intercept fentanyl and other drugs and added 1,500 border security agents to protect our border.”

To be fair, most of the fentanyl that comes to the United States comes through legal points of entry. And, the southern border has also seen not just people from Mexico, Honduras, and El Salvador, but also Southeast Asians, and others.

One aspect of immigration, often neglected by Republicans, was that in 1986, “The law did not provide a legal way for the great number of low-skilled workers wishing to enter the United States. Following this 1986 law, almost 12 million undocumented workers came illegally across the U.S. border. It was estimated that this illegal workforce made up about five percent of the U.S. workforce. It was also estimated that about 70 percent of those illegal workers were from Mexico.”

On the domestic front, many wealthy white households employ a variety of housekeepers, nannies and gardeners, all flying under the radar of local and federal officials. And, critics note that the creation of this shadow employment has also created a permanent underclass.

The social media platform X has been awash in labeling Harris as the “Border Czar,” a title that she never had and was tasked only by Biden to examine the root causes of southern migration, and of which she was filmed telling prospective immigrants, ‘Do not come.”

The Biden administration wrestled with how to stem the flow, and balance legitimate asylum claims, and created a smartphone app for prospective immigrants to apply for admission and asylum, but the program was so “buggy” that it often failed those who needed it the most.

It is stated, through her campaign website, that “As President, she will bring back the bipartisan border security bill and sign it into law. At the same time, she knows that our immigration system is broken and needs comprehensive reform that includes strong border security and an earned pathway to citizenship.”

Abortion

The next, and most salient, issue for the Democrats is abortion, or as properly labeled reproductive care, long an issue of division for the US, but also especially for women a tool of empowerment over their own bodies, especially for problem pregnancies, in which the life of the mother as well as her fetus are endangered.

Harris has been the White House’s public face for efforts to improve maternal health and ensure some abortion access, despite the Supreme Court ruling. Earlier this year, she became the highest-ranking U.S. official to make a public visit to an abortion clinic,” noted The Associated Press,

Trump placed three conservative judges on the Supreme Court, and of them, both very conservative, Amy Coney Barrett and Brett Kavanaugh, both Catholic, faced intense scrutiny and in the case of Barrett, an irregular confirmation, shoehorned in by Trump, and the first issue they faced headlong was the repeal of Roe V. Wade in 2022; and, since then over a dozen states have restricted abortion, and while making cases for exceptions, the details can easily cause doctors performing abortions, even to save the life of the mother in legal jeopardy, say those who study abortion. And, those medical emergencies are so narrow in many cases, as we see below, that the Biden administration fought against their definitions.

Harris in her debate with Trump put it succinctly when she said, ““You want to talk about this is what people wanted? Pregnant women who want to carry a pregnancy to term, suffering from a miscarriage, being denied care in an emergency room because health care providers are afraid they might go to jail and she’s bleeding out in a car in the parking lot?”

The reality she stated has been faced by countless women and two died in Georgia because of this very same dilemma, and perhaps nowhere is this more evident than in the state of Idaho where the 6 week ban, (when many women don’t even know that they are pregnant) has played out with anguish.

Trump, and the GOP playbook, Project 2025, has at its nadir, the use of the Comstock Law, an 1873 anti vice law that, if used, would outlaw not only the medication used for over two thirds of abortions in the country, Mifepristone, but also threaten the equipment used by clinics “that need to do their jobs,” reported The Guardian.

As a consequence 13 percent of infants die in their first year of life across the US, note researchers.

Of note, Trump has flip flopped on the issue of abortion, and while he has not stated that he would favor a national ban, and said he would veto a national ban, the use of the Comstock Act, he would not not need Congress to enact a national ban.

Joined by lawsuits across the country could use that act to do just that, a ban; and Justice Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito, “both brought up the 151 year old law in recent arguments,” The Guardian also reported. 

American voters face a challenge on these issues, and more, and the crowds on both sides of the candidates face a certain level of anxiety on the outcome; but there are predictions and warnings that Trump won’t admit defeat, and instead declare victory even before the votes are counted, a calculated move to help foment violence in a reset of the attacks on the Capitol on January 6th, the day that lives in infamy for many Americans.

On Wednesday November 6th, Donald Trump was declared winner with 270 electoral votes

Updated November 6, 2024