December Jobs Report: mild with clouds ahead

The times they are a changing said an old song, but Friday's job report from the US Dept. of Labor said otherwise with a barely changed jobs outlook for the American economy from December with 50,000 non farm jobs created scarcely changed from the prior month; and, with a modest expectation of 53,000 jobs, stasis has set in, even though uncertainty still reigns, and with the accompanied 4,4 percent unemployment rate the US is showing resilience in the face of extreme cautiousness by employers making only the most modest and necessary hiring.

Continuing along this path are the heavy hitters of health care catering to the aging population of baby boomers joined by high income earners, as we saw last month, still bankrolling restaurants and bars, despite lower alcohol consumption. But, the good times are only a deception since there have been less than 50,000 jobs created since January 2025, and this alone has become a cause of concern for economists as they watch employment to population growth, and see a deficit.

“At this point, we have to be concerned about the strength of the labor market. Total job creation at less than 0.5% is extremely rare in recent history outside of recessions or the jobless recovery of the early 2000’s. This far into an economic expansion, it’s essentially unheard of,” wrote Michael Linden, senior policy fellow at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth, a left-leaning non-profit,” reported The Hill.

Perhaps ominously, he added, ““Combined with the persistent concerns over cost-of-living, a weak labor market could tip the economy into a contraction.”

That brings us to the entanglement of politics and the economy, and one which President Trump said he would fix on the campaign trail and that in the near year since he was sworn into office has not materialized with inflation still hovering at 2.6 percent and persistently high costs of housing and groceries.

Of course, no president controls the economy like the Wizard of Oz as we've stated before, but sitting in the Oval office they have to take it on the chin when costs are elevated, and the polls are showing that Trump is getting negatives in the 30s, while critics have pointed out that he seems more intent on foreign affairs, under the banner of economic gains, but how that will materialize on Main Street, as well as Wall Street is an open question,

There are hopes for lower and abundant gas to fuel America’s love affair with motor vehicles but investors and economists have said that sourcing Venezuelan oil with the removal of President Nicolas Maduro may be more hope than reality with a moribund infrastructure, safety concerns, among many others.

Affordability is the new buzzword when discussing the economy in the US and the high cost of housing, both rental and mortgages, has escalated fears in all but the most well heeled consumer; and, even administration officials are worried about the foreign focus especially with the departure of Trump stalwart Marjorie Taylor Green, and her dire warning of the prospect of the Republicans losing the Congressional dominance in the upcoming midterms over the high cost of living for American working families,

There are some who feel more positive and The New York Times wrote that “Most analysts expect that this momentum moderated in the last three months of 2025. But they still expect growth in the $30 trillion U.S. economy will register a respectable pace in 2026 — above 2 percent — even as serious concerns about housing affordability and the general cost of living persist.”

We are looking at “a series of barometers for Mr. Trump’s second term, during which the president has pursued an agenda of wide-scale deregulation, generous corporate tax cuts, punishing global tariffs, tougher border enforcement and a full-scale restructuring of the federal bureaucracy. That effort alone resulted in the loss of roughly 277,000 jobs from the ranks of government last year.”

Are all of these pieces, as the Times noted, able to cobble together the economy? The absence of an end game has caused worry and concentration in many corners,

Reflecting that worry makes for some searching looks and a less than optimistic, if not pessimistic outlook and “Those policy decisions — immigration, tariff, trade — are probably central to the slowdown that we’ve seen, particularly if you’re comparing it to the last two years or so,” said Olu Sonola, the head of U.S. economic research for Fitch Ratings,” he told the Times.

“It’s not going to be a boom by any means. It’s not going to be a bust by any means,” he said.

Contrast this with what, “In a series of posts on social media, the Council of Economic Advisers said that the jobs figures from December underscored a “a stable labor market where workers’ purchasing power has been improving due to pay increases outpacing inflation.”

“Kevin A. Hassett, the director of the White House National Economic Council, later told CNBC that the hiring numbers “look a little bit different than every other indicator that we have.”

It’s our belief that the White House is looking nervously over their shoulders as they try to manage a full plate, and predictions from those previously cited are reflecting uncertainty wrapped in hope. And, adding to it, Hassett said there is "A heck of a lot of economic growth, and it doesn’t necessarily have to mean a whole huge amount of job creation.”

Of equal concern is “The unemployment rate for young people, between the ages of 16 and 24, appears to have mellowed out after steadily rising from a 2023 low. It’s now at 10.4 percent, down slightly from November. Economists have been particularly concerned about this group, entering the labor market at a time when hiring has been extremely sluggish even though few people are getting laid off.”

When colleges hand out diplomas in May and June, the time for graduates to gain full employment will be further watched closely; and, even last year’s graduates are pessimistic about getting full time employment, seeking marriage, starting a family and buying that first home, with many interviewed stating that home ownership may be merely a dream.

The unemployment rate for Black workers has dropped  by seven tenths of a point, to 7.5 percent, reversing November gains. Even with gains and losses that the data tracks, it’s clear that  the rate of unemployment at the end of 2024, was 6.1 percent at the end of 2024. And as reported by the Times “Black workers are still roughly twice as likely to be unemployed as white workers.”

Fortune Magazine had noted that “Official unemployment numbers also disguise the depth of the crisis. Black women’s unemployment rate rose from 5.4% in February to 7.5% in September—already more than two points above what the Federal Reserve considers “full employment.” But when accounting for the hundreds of thousands of women pushed out of the labor force entirely since 2020, the real unemployment rate for Black women is 10.23%.”

Concentrated in lower wage jobs such as food service health care, think nursing assistants in care facilities, and retail, Black women’s employment is gaining in these areas but with much lower wages than other roles, “Even within health care, Black women face some of the largest racial and gender pay gaps. Meanwhile, Black women lost 1,500 jobs in government, a more stable and higher-paying sector, and saw zero gains in finance, transportation, or professional services. In short, they are gaining jobs where wages are lowest and losing them where wages are better,” Fortune added.

“Overall, the details of this survey are very encouraging,” wrote Thomas Simons, an economist with Jefferies, in a note to clients. “The slack in the labor market that emerged during the spring and summer looks more and more like a temporary response to the tariff announcements than a fundamental shift in the labor market.:

The Federal Reserve Bank is again in a tight spot, with many saying a pause in future rate cuts,even as far out as April seem unlikely as the focus in reducing inflation will be their goal despite the tepid report from December, a move bound to anger the present who wants deep cuts to at least three percent, and while Chair Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May, has said he will stay; but, on Sunday it was also reported by the Times that, “The U.S. attorney’s office in the District of Columbia has opened a criminal investigation into Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, over the central bank’s renovation of its Washington headquarters and whether Mr. Powell lied to Congress about the scope of the project, according to officials briefed on the situation.

The inquiry, which includes an analysis of Mr. Powell’s public statements and an examination of spending records, was approved in November by Jeanine Pirro, a longtime ally of President Trump who was appointed to run the office last year, the officials said.”

In a video taped rebuttal Powell said. “The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the president,” and added “This is about whether the Fed will be able to continue to set interest rates based on evidence and economic conditions — or whether instead monetary policy will be directed by political pressure or intimidation.”

November Jobs Report is shaken, but not stirred

Continuing the slowdown for the American job market the Labor Department released November employment figures on Tuesday consistent with what we have seen for the last several months: the US took a loss of 106,000 jobs, and a gain of only 64,000 jobs with an unemployment figure of 4.6 percent the largest seen in four years; but, due to the government shutdown it does not contain the usual snapshot, and some economists see the figures as shaky with the lack of not only the snapshot, but also the data collection from the household survey, methods lacking the necessary detail due to shutdown delays.

Methodology is at the forefront of blow-back from the White House touting the success of the American economy and the increased proliferation of native born workers, an assertion consistent with the Trump administration's goals of immigrant removal both legal, and illegal.

CNN reported that “The White House on Tuesday touted the latest employment figures as a sign of a “strong, American First economy,” highlighting gains in the private sector:

“Since President (Donald) Trump took office, 100% of the job growth has come in the private sector and among native-born Americans — exactly where it should be,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt wrote Tuesday.” 

“Private-sector businesses have indeed driven job growth this year while public sector employment has declined – entirely because of steep federal workforce cuts by the Trump administration. From January through November, the US economy added 499,000 jobs: The private sector added 687,000 jobs and the government (federal, state and local) shed 188,000 jobs.”

With the midterm elections upcoming in a matter of months the administration is determined to show that there are job gains for the US, but as CNN added, “However, the pace of job growth has fallen off: The year-to-date employment gains – overall and private-sector – are the weakest since 2020 and, before that, the Great Recession.

Additionally, it’s impossible to attribute the monthly employment gains reported widely from the jobs report to any particular nativity or documentation status – labor force and demographic statistics are drawn from an entirely different survey than the monthly payroll numbers."

While some economists and observers see this as a shell game by the White House, it’s a sure bet with high stakes at maintaining a lead in the US House of Representatives they will want to put a best foot forward on what is a slowly leaking jobs market.

While the DOGE decimation of federal payrolls gave a strong hit to the report, combined with more workers holding part-time jobs because they could not find full-time work increased to 8.7%, its highest since August 2021, a concerning fact.

According to CNBC, “The October slump came from a steep fall in government employment as deferred layoffs instituted earlier this year took effect. Government payrolls were off 162,000 for the month, and fell an additional 6,000 in November."

Once again, the heavy hitters were health care, adding 46,000 jobs, with more than 70% of the total net increase, and construction added 28,000, while the umbrella label of social assistance showed 18,000.

It was also reported, “On the down side, transportation and warehousing was off 18,000, part of a continuing trend in job losses for the sector. Leisure and hospitality also posted a loss of 12,000.”

A significant reason for the steady and reliable hiring increases in health care are America’s aging population, and their reliable needs.

While hiring has slowed and in some cases been eliminated, the Trump White House paints a glowing picture: “The strong jobs report shows how President Trump is fixing the damage caused by Joe Biden and creating a strong, America First economy in record time,” Leavitt said in a statement adding that “Workers’ wages are rising, prices are falling, trillions of dollars in investments are pouring into our country, and the American economy is primed to boom in 2026.”

The Federal Reserve in creating a rate cut had a difficult path to follow and

the dilemma that Powell has faced, as we have noted many times before, is the balancing act between meeting the mandate of full employment with 2 percent inflation.

Inflation has rebounded from earlier years when it was over 3 percent, especially in the post pandemic world, the current rate is still high; and, is especially felt by low income Americans during their weekly grocery shopping;with many feeling that the president has not kept his campaign promise of lowering those prices, inasmuch as any president can.

“The Fed is unlikely to put much weight on today’s report given data disruptions,” said Kay Haigh, global co-head of fixed income and liquidity solutions at Goldman Sachs Asset Management. To CNBC, noting that,“The report on December’s employment data, released in early January ahead of the next meeting, will likely be a much more meaningful indicator for the Fed when it comes to deciding the near-term policy trajectory.”

Thursday offered a glimmer of hope with the CPI report that strips out volatile food and energy costs, and according to Yahoo Finance,“Inflation pressures eased more than expected in November, according to the latest data on consumer prices published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.”

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.7% over the prior year in November, less than the 3.1% increase that had been expected by economists, according to Bloomberg estimates.”

However, there is a cautionary note, “This looks like positive news overall, but the lack of detail and the absence of data collection during the shutdown introduce a degree of skepticism that’s hard to ignore," wrote Olu Sonola, head of US economic research at Fitch Ratings, in an email after the report,” but added that “Tariff pass through remains muted, even as companies stocked up on holiday imports facing higher duties. The Fed will welcome that trend, given its recent focus on cutting rates to support a softer labor market."

In his Wednesday night address to the nation, the president said, “Very importantly, there are more people working today than at any time in American history. And 100 percent of all jobs created since I took office have been in the private sector. Think of that, 100 percent of all jobs have been in the private sector rather than government, which is the only way to make a country powerful and great."

As was expected he trashed former President Biden and his handling of the economy, immigration and that the rest of the world laughed at us, and while we will leave the majority of fact checking to others, to say that Trump was on a stretch would not be an exaggeration.

“Already, I’ve secured a record-breaking $18 trillion of investment into the United States, which means jobs, wage increases, growth, factory openings and far greater national security. Much of this success has been accomplished by tariffs, my favorite word, tariffs, which for many decades have been used successfully by other countries against us, but not anymore.”

Tariffs have been the core of uncertainty by the nation’s employers and while the full effect may not be seen until January, this current fear can be seen in the November jobs report.

Taking a closer look,”Average hourly earnings rose just 0.1% for the month, below the estimate for 0.3%, and were up 3.5% from a year ago, the smallest annual gain since May 2021,” and "The 0.1 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate was largely a function of labor force growth.”

“The strong jobs report shows how President Trump is fixing the damage caused by Joe Biden and creating a strong, America First economy in record time,” Leavitt said in a statement, stating that, “Workers’ wages are rising, prices are falling, trillions of dollars in investments are pouring into our country, and the American economy is primed to boom in 2026.”

Steady consumer spending has been seen by high income earners, and while inflation has rebounded from earlier years when it was over 3 percent, especially in a post pandemic world, the current rate is still high, and is especially felt by low income Americans during their weekly grocery shopping; and, many are feeling that the president has not kept his campaign promise of lowering those prices, inasmuch as any president can.

A recent PBS/NPR/Marist poll showed Trump taking a direct hit by Americans who feel that he has failed them, with 55 percent of those polled disapproving of the way he is handling the economy.

December rate cut: A holiday gift from the Federal Reserve

Wednesday's rate cut by the Federal Reserve had been anticipated by some in our earlier coverage, but seeing is believing, and that news came with no data from the Bureau of Labor and Statistics due to the government shutdown, so the Federal Opens Market Committee made the decision with one armed tied behind their collective backs.

Consequently they also faced the dilemma of trying to meet its mandate of full employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent creating division among its members, with some saying hold back on a cut, and full steam ahead by others, creating a first for that body.

The drop in the rate went down to a range: 3.5 to 3.75, to 0.25 percentage points. And The Hill reported that, “The FOMC approved the rate cut by a vote of 9 to 3, a smaller margin than the typical Fed rate decision. Fed board member Stephen Miran preferred to cut rates by 0.5 percentage points, while Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee and Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid called for no cut at all.”

It should be no surprise that Miran, an ally of President Trump, wanted the larger cuts a bone of contention between the president and Federal Reserve head Jerome Powell.

Even allowing for a plurality of views, “The unusual number and nature of Wednesday’s dissents revealed how hard it could be for Fed Chair Jerome Powell — and his eventual successor — to keep the FOMC united with the economy at a foggy crossroads” reported The Hill and added,”The last time three FOMC members voted against a Fed move was in September 2019, when the Fed cut interest rates to unwind a series of previous increases meant to stave off inflation that never materialized."

At Wednesday’s press conference, Powell said,“Everyone agrees that inflation is too high, and we want it to come down, and agree that the labor market has softened and that there’s further risk. Everyone agrees on that.” 

Other reports from officials say that inflation might be acceptable at 3 percent as a new standard, yet that shift might be more philosophical than reflection of a true policy, beyond the traditional mandate of the Federal Reserve.

With perhaps the greatest understatement he added: “Where the difference is, is how do you weigh those risks? And what does your forecast look like?”

Powell’s term ends in May of 2026, and Trump is expected to name his successor in the near future; and, it’s no secret that the two have differed on the role and size of rate cuts, and the president did give some of his characteristic verbal bludgeoning to the Chair for the past several months.

The dilemma that Powell has faced, as we have noted many times before, is the balancing act between meeting the mandate and taking stock of inflation, plus the adjoining employment rate. While inflation has rebounded from earlier years when it was over 3 percent, especially in a post pandemic world, the current rate is still high, and is especially felt by low income Americans during their weekly grocery shopping; and, many are feeling that the president has not kept his campaign promise of lowering those prices, inasmuch as any president can.

Meanwhile employment has remained resilient, if shaky, in the face of economic uncertainty, mostly attributable to the billions of dollars in tariffs imposed by the president, what an earlier era called protectionism; and, the effect on hiring is significant as employers are trying to make do with what they have on payroll, and increasing hiring only when necessary, creating a slowdown in many areas, health care and hospitality excepted.

Consumer confidence has taken a hit, as are the poll ratings for the president now at 36 percent. And, while he has portrayed affordability as a Democratic hoax, the reality of higher prices and the ever increasing costs of housing have many American working families deeply worried about their economic future, not to mention meeting monthly bills, and feeding their children.

There is some optimism by some economists that consumer spending is steady but it;s important to note, as we did last month, that the increased spending is supported by high income earners, but lower income individuals and families face the above challenges, thus the infamous K shaped economy.

Currently it is estimated that there is $150 billion in tariff money sitting in reserve and the the president has said that some might be given to Americans in the form of a check, or to help pay for health care, but economists don’t see that as a viable option in either case, with the latter forcing people to confront, on their own, the behemoth of American health care giants.

The role of politics cannot be underestimated in examining the American economy but there are fears that many hardworking Americans may be caught in the middle.

On Thursday there were the initial jobless claims and while there was an increase to the tune of 236,000 and allowing for some holiday volatility, following previously lower numbers of 191,000, there are cautionary notes, according to Claudia Sahm, a former Fed economist, who told Fortune magazine that, “Initial claims don’t give you a sense of what’s coming,” she said. They’re what economists like to call a lagging indicator, meaning they tend to spike after a recession is underway, not before it. Recent weekly readings, distorted by holidays and special factors, are even less informative.”

Nevertheless, as Yahoo Finance reported, “Weekly initial claims tend to be choppy around the holidays and will likely continue to fluctuate through the end of the year, but Thursday’s figures are toward the higher end of readings seen in 2025. Companies like PepsiCo Inc. and HP Inc. have laid out plans to reduce headcount in recent weeks, and nationwide layoffs in October were the highest since early 2023.”

The future is on the minds of many and Powell, playing close to the vest, feels at best that shifting into neutral gear may be the best option but then again, as The New York Times opined, ”If there are signs that the unemployment rate might surge, that would probably prompt more officials to embrace the need to cut rates. So far, though, most policymakers do not appear worried, nor do they appear to be downbeat about growth. Projections released on Wednesday showed that most officials expected the unemployment rate to peak at 4.5 percent in 2025, before declining.”

Tariffs are still on the chart and it seems that Powell, and others, are waiting for the first quarter of 2026 to make an assessment, perhaps a code word for “wait and see.”

Updated on December 15, 2025

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September Jobs Report: Come and Gone

If you missed the September Jobs report released by the US Labor Dept last week you are not alone with the competing news of Ukraine Peace deals, the burgeoning case with the pressure to release the Epstein films and broadsides from President Trump, it was easy to miss; but, now, with the Thanksgiving holiday a day away it’s time to hit the refresh button on what the American economy looks like, now that the government is open and the tabulators had enough data, due to that impasse to gain a windfall as employers hit the submit button for increased data collection.

To be brief, it’s still resilient, as the good news was continued with 119,000 non farm jobs, much more than expected, and an unemployment rate of 4.4 percent, the marquee rate, as we prefer to call it, and even the household survey showed a steady pace with the big numbers for the health care industry, and the steady drain of manufacturing.

What beckons in mid December at the Federal Reserve Meeting, where economists are predicting that there will be no rate cut, because of this stable report and the market has been strong, so there seems to be no calls on Wall Street for a rate cut.

According to Reuters, “Some economists viewed the rise in the jobless rate as bolstering the argument for another Federal Reserve interest rate cut next month, while others said the better-than-expected job growth suggested the U.S. central bank should stay pat, especially since policymakers would not get another employment report before the December 9-10 meeting.”

While the September report, released late November, because of the shutdown, and the less probable release of October’s report, the Fed is at a disadvantage without the usual complete data, and the chances that the president might, or might not make a move to install his own at the Bureau of Labor and Statistics after he fired to the former head; but, with foreign wars, and interventions beckoning from afar, and Trump might punt on this appointment.

The good news is that wages increased at the same rate of 0.2 percent and 3.8 over the years but some see murky waters ahead with not only the absence of October but the revisions of July and August of 33,000 but, it’s equally important to realize that revisions are standard for BLS.

Layoffs are not seeing an increase but then again a surge of new hires is not occurring, but as is common knowledge tariffs, and their on again, off again have taken a toll on the business community, especially small business with employees under 500 employees, with where most Americans are employed and who don’t have the heft that the big retailers, such as Walmart have in negotiating lower tarrifs, and there are some who are worried in that community. It’s a given that business markets don’t like uncertainty, and the end game from the White House has not been evident.

One area that is still showing growth and that is restaurants and bars hitting 37,000 new hires but as economists have pointed out this is mostly supported by high income earners, and as reported this is a K shaped economy with those at the top of the bar with high incomes and those at the bottom with lower wages leaving an empty middle. 

With grocery prices still high at major markets, American working families are struggling to stay afloat with rent, mortgage payments and child care and the theme of affordability, seen in the New York mayoral race won the day for Zohran Mandami and now that term has entered the economic as well as political realm.

A common theme is that to maintain economic parity 100,000 jobs need to be maintained each month, but with cautious employers citing tariff uncertainty as a factor it’s an open question if that can be maintained.

"These changes complicate traditional interpretations of job numbers, but also point toward a labor market undergoing gradual, not chaotic, transformation," said Sung Won Sohn, a finance and economics professor at Loyola Marymount University. "The key question for the year ahead is whether the economy can maintain this delicate equilibrium,” according to Reuters.

One category, professional services and temporary workers, once a boom in the 1980s, has taken a nose dive with September showing a decrease of 13,000. Of course in competition with health care, it looks puny, but some are hoping that post holiday numbers might increase but others noting that any hiring in the retail sector has already been done, and stress that historically those workers are laid off in January.

Full time workers may have gained a bump of 675,000 and part time with 575,000 and a slight reduction in those working part time, but preferring full time, give some hope to some economic observers, but notably there was an increase of those unemployed for 26 weeks, or more.

“September’s jobs report shows the labor market still had resilience before the shutdown, beating payroll expectations, but the picture remains muddy with August jobs revised to a job loss and the unemployment rate increasing,” said Daniel Zhao, chief economist at jobs site Glassdoor. “These numbers are a snapshot from two months ago and they don’t reflect where we stand now in November.” told CNBC, thus complicating the work of the Fed in December.