USA Strong as September Jobs show strength

It’s been a gamut of reactions on the American economy over the last few years as the country faced down the realities of the COVID pandemic, and the September Jobs Report from the United States Labor Department has given a longer more nuanced look at the world’s first economy, and has shown what can only be seen as, dare we say it, resilient; but, perhaps the best evaluation is strong, as the US economy added 254,000 jobs, far exceeding the 150,000 expected, and it has also proved to be a pivotal move for future movements from the Federal Reserve Bank as it further calibrates interest rates.

The report also moves the idea of a recession further away from the naysayers who much like Cassandra of mythology, have erroneously predicted a pending recession, often told to us, as we have reported before, in hushed tones, often over fresh produce in the supermarket, or on the crosstown bus.

Those fears allayed, and hopefully put to rest, but this strength has given a push to the waning days of the Biden administration, and also a major push towards the candidacy of Kamala Harris, the Democratic contender for the presidency, and against her rival former President Donald Trump, who in a number of polls has held an edge in how potential voters feel about who has the economic strength in handling an economy once burdened by the pandemic and the subsequent supply chain bottleneck that kept supplies from everything from diapers to blenders on backorder. 

Nevermind the fact that presidents have little control over the economy as a free market economy like the US tends to self regulate, or as early undergraduates may remember: the legendary “unseen hand”; Adam Smith anyone?

President Biden in a statement from the White House said that, “with today’s report, we’ve created 16 million jobs, unemployment remains low, and wages are growing faster than prices,” but most importantly, “Under my Administration, unemployment has been the lowest in 50 years, a record 19 million new business have been created, and inflation and interest rates are falling.”.

An unemployment rate of 4.1 percent, underscores the historic record quoted by Biden, and with 7,000 jobs in September, but up from 137,000 since the pandemic.

“It’s an incredible number,” said Diane Swonk, the chief economist at KPMG humorously reported, and added, “The labor market is apparently not cooling as rapidly as we thought. It’s either the most magnificent soft landing we have ever achieved or there is going to be some further consternation about how sustained this can be.”

Another keypoint is that Black unemployment has decreased to 5.7 percent, considered as The New York Times reported, a bellwether for employment, since they are the last to be hired, and the first to be fired.

According to The New York Times, “By several measures, the job market is historically strong. People in their prime working years of 25 to 54 are employed at a rate previously seen only in the early 2000s. Average hourly earnings are strong — and climbing — even when adjusted for inflation. Women in their peak working ages are participating in the labor market at the highest levels on record.”

Wages are now up 4 percent from a year ago, now outpacing the rising prices, but as has been reported inflation has gone down, but there is some suspicion that larger grocers, in particular, have depended on consumers used to paying higher prices to continue to do so, now that the die has been cast.

Nevertheless, “That means buying power is slowly being restored,” said Mark Hanrick, Bankrate’s senior economic analyst. But, as the old adage states, perception is one tenth of the law, and , saying that 40% of Americans are dissatisfied with the economy.

Taking a stronger stance was Heather Boushey with the Council of Economic Advisers, who said, “This is the kind of strong, steady pace that is delivering for people all across the country., and added, “You continue to see evidence that this remains a strong and healthy but not too fast, not too hot economy.”

As seen in prior reports the heavy hitters are still restaurants and bars, as well as construction that has continued its upward climb, a move that Boushey attributes to the Biden administration's prioritization of infrastructure semi conductors and clean energy that has resulted in 25,000 new construction jobs.

Labor force participation has hit 62.7 percent for peak aged workers those aged 25 to 54 years old.

The numbers reflect this reality: Healthcare along with education at 81,000; Leisure and Hospitality at 78,000; at 31,000; and Construction at 25,000.

For the Federal Reserve, it's’ unlikely at its next meeting, in November, that we are going to see significant cuts as it has calibrated these in a series of long running data point decisions; and,earlier with former Chair Janet Yellen who told the Wall Street Journal in 2015, “My own preference would be able to proceed and tighten in a prudent and gradual manner,” and with the current Chair Jerome Powell, who told reporters last week, “Our design overall is to achieve disinflation down to 2 percent without other kinds of painful increase in unemployment that has often come with disinflation processes”, and emphasized, “We haven’t completed that task.”

Examining and fact checking the Vice Presidential debate

In the wake of Tuesday’s presidential debate between Sen. JD Vance and Governor Tim Walz of Minnesota all who viewed it agreed it was more civil than was expected, as many felt that it was going to be a "throw down” between the two very different candidates, especially since the many volatile, and even vile attacks by the former, and would probably include attacks on the military records of the latter in the National Guard, while some expected Walz to attack the more egregious attacks by Vance on Haitian immigrants living in Springfield Ohio that he accused of kidnapping and eating pets and ducks in local waters.

Walz was also expected to contest Vance’s statements of women without children as “childless cat ladies” who, bereft of being a mother, lacked the necessary intelligence to function in American life.

That would be a lot to unpack what has been expected to be a very close election between their bosses, former president Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.

Walz came out of the gate visibly nervous but soon relaxed and was able to gain hold on the debate stage, despite his earlier warnings to Harris that he was no debater. Vance, who has scored the lowest favorability of any vice presidential candidate,(a negative 11 according to a CNN poll) in recent history must have been keenly aware of the fact and decided to rival the fabled “Minnesota Nice” aspect of his Democratic rival.

Vance as is well known has given scores of interviews and comments on a variety of media platforms extolling the virtues of Trump and his record, albeit weak, and demonizing Harris as a “Flip Flopper” despite his own record of likening Trump to Hitler and some embarrassing gaffs, most recently, in a store, in front of a display of eggs with a sign stating $2.99 a dozen, while blaming Harris for increasing them to $4.00 a dozen while holding a carton of 24 eggs, while his 7 year old son tried to point out his mistake by pointing at the sign.

Walz, on the other hand has gained a plus four net favorability, due in no small measure to his “everyman” image, and what has seemed apparent, a genuinely nice guy persona, evident on the campaign trail.

The expectation that Vance would outshine Walz, and attack him. on his misstating his title and record in the Guard, and his recollection of when he was in China and if so, was it during the uprising in Tiananmen Square, was low hanging fruit that the senator did not pounce on.

Vance to his credit, often referring to the governor as Tim and expressed empathy when he learned that Walz’s son had witnessed a shooting and said, “Christ have mercy.” A penitential response from the liturgy of the Roman Catholic Mass, or a heartfelt response from the senator, We like to think of the latter.

He is also a chameleon to some, an opportunist to others, a scion of Silicon Valley under the tutelage and mentorship of billionaire Peter Thiel, and who when pressed upon learning of Walz as Harris’ running mate was asked if they had anything in common by reporters, stated, “Well, look, I mean, yeah, we’re white guys from the Midwest.” and “I guess there are similarities there.”

That aside what Vance excelled at on Tuesday, and was often overlooked by some observers was that he lied continuously for nearly 90 minutes on almost every topic, even with a glaring falsehood that Trump did all he could to save the Affordable Care Act, that he and other Republicans have given the derisive label of “Obamacare,” when in fact Trump did everything he could to weaken and destroy President Obama’s signature piece of legislation, and key to his legacy, and even filed a lawsuit, that was later thrown out.

Blaming the nation’s lack of affordable housing on immigration, all illegal, and overlooking the fact that Haitian immigrants, especially in Ohio, a state he represents, are legally in this country under the Temporary Protected Status program..

Migrants were in fact, in Vance’s opinion, responsible for all of the ills of American society, and Walz’s truth telling did no good, as Vance was playing to his base, or to use a church held term, “preaching to the choir.”

In the scheme of things, vice presidential debates don’t count for much, save some memorable lines between Dan Quayle and Lloyd Bentsen, when the former claimed that he had a much experience as Jack Kennedy, and Bentsen famously quipped that he knew “Jack Kennedy, Jack Kennedy was a friend of mine and senator you're no Jack Kennedy.”

Walz, for the most part, was error free with the glaring exception of misrepresenting Trump’s stance on contraception, and one that he has changed his position over the decades, along with abortion and seeing that it is a winning issue for Democrats is now embracing contraception and IVF 

Of all the moments in the debate this showed Walz as his strongest and he categorically denied that doctors in Minnesota could end the life of a 9 month old baby after an abortion.

Before we cite the record from our friends at factcheck.org, let’s shake our collective heads in disbelief as Vance continuously pounded on Harris as if she was president, and ignoring the fact that vice presidents are not policy makers, don’t create executive actions, don’t create policy ,and don’t rule in a country where there is the rule of law, but that did not stop him from uttering such nonsensical lines as, “why didn’t Kamala Harris do. . . “ and :”Why not do them now?”

Of note, Harris never held the title of “Border Czar” and was only tasked by Biden to examine the root causes of immigration from the Southern Border; and, neither she, nor any president or vice president set grocery prices.

Was this another cudgel to beat the vice president, or was it a tactical admission that she might just win the presidency, and that he is rehearsing his stump speech in the future?

As promised, some fact checking of the debate from Factcheck.org:

“Vance claimed that housing “is totally unaffordable because we brought in millions of illegal immigrants to compete with Americans for scarce homes.” But economists and housing experts say that the primary reason for the tight housing market is the decline in new residential construction that followed the Great Recession.

Walz misleadingly linked former President Donald Trump’s tax cuts to “an $8 trillion increase in the national debt, the largest ever.” But trillions of that debt were due to bipartisan COVID-19 relief packages. And the debt increase so far under the Biden administration is nearly as high.

In describing an abortion law Walz signed in Minnesota, Vance said physicians were no longer required to provide life-saving care to infants “born alive.” But he neglected to say that the law still requires such infants to be given proper medical care and be “accorded immediate protection under the law.” Such cases pertain to situations involving induced labor for medical reasons such as fetal abnormalities.

Vance claimed that “we have 320,000 children that the Department of Homeland Security has effectively lost.” An August inspector general report said about that many unaccompanied minors who illegally entered the U.S. had not shown up for immigration court between fiscal years 2019 and 2023, or had not received a summons to appear in court. The report did not say they were “lost.”

Walz falsely claimed that “their” Project 2025 will establish a registry of pregnancies, referring to what might happen under a Trump-Vance administration. However, the Trump campaign has disavowed Project 2025. The conservative document advocates mandatory state reporting of abortions and miscarriages, but not the tracking of pregnancy in general.

Walz said that Project 2025 “is going to make it more difficult, if not impossible, to get contraception and limit access, if not eliminate access, to infertility treatments.” Some policies in the document could in effect limit contraception and infertility treatments, but Trump has said he does not want to restrict access to contraception and that he would expand access to in vitro fertilization.

Vance incorrectly claimed the U.S. has the “cleanest economy,” while falsely hinting that carbon emissions might not be driving climate change. 

Vance claimed that because of Vice President “Kamala Harris’ open border, we’ve seen a massive influx in the number of illegal guns run by the Mexican drug cartels.” But the concern of the U.S. and Mexican governments has been American-made guns trafficked from the U.S. to Mexico.

Walz said “less than 2%” of the border wall that Trump promised “got built.” That undersells the amount of wall built during the Trump administration relative to what was promised.

Vance blamed Harris for “letting in … 25 million illegal aliens.” That’s a grossly exaggerated figure.

Walz countered that illegal border “crossings are down compared to when Donald Trump left office,” which is true when comparing the last two months to the last two months under Trump. But looking at Harris’ entire time as vice president, illegal border crossings are up substantially.

Vance claimed that Harris “let fentanyl into our communities at record levels.” That’s not clear. The amount of fentanyl seized by border officials has increased during the Biden administration, which may indicate that more fentanyl is crossing the border undetected.

Walz said that the “last 12 months saw the largest decrease in opioid deaths in our nation’s history.” Provisional data show that reported opioid deaths have declined significantly in the 12 months ending in April. But the figure is still higher than it was at the start of the Biden-Harris administration.

Vance claimed that Trump “could have destroyed” the Affordable Care Act, but instead “worked in a bipartisan way to ensure that Americans had access to affordable care.” Trump did try to destroy the ACA, including by backing a lawsuit that would have nullified it.

Walz said that if Trump had repealed the ACA “you lose your preexisting conditions,” adding that if you’ve “got asthma, too bad.” Ending the law would significantly reduce protections for those with preexisting conditions, but before the ACA, employer-based plans couldn’t deny issuing a policy.

Vance slightly overstated the inflation rate for groceries under Biden and ignored macroeconomic causes for rising prices when blaming Biden and Harris for food inflation.

Walz claimed that “Donald Trump hasn’t paid any federal tax in the last 15 years,” but that’s not quite right. The former president didn’t pay federal income taxes in 2020, but he did pay various amounts between 2015 and 2018. Trump also did not pay taxes in 10 of the 15 years before he became president.”

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Cautious praise for the Federal Reserve Interest Rate Cut

The time has come with the much anticipated interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve Bank, and Wednesday’s announcement brought some joy to the market and also a measure of relief from American consumers, the drivers of the US economy; but, that joy has to be tempered as it will take at least six months for the effects to be seen.

One important aspect to be acknowledged is that Chair Jerome Powell has kept a steady hand on the tiller as he balanced the rocky ocean of post pandemic economics, sexton in hand, as he calibrated the interest rates from their near history making zero to one of, gasp, 50; and, which the data shows was relevant, as he noted at the recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. 

While we have said in previous posts, that Powell is a self identified data driven chair, he was often not believed, but this announcement should cement that in the minds of Wall Street, as well as Main Street. 

50 basis point is a lot to some, but after seeing the latest CPI date, an inflationary measure, the downward drop of inflation to 0.2 in August meets the mandate of the Fed to 2 percent inflation

The other is full employment, and while there were some naysayers who panicked at the August unemployment rate which increased from July at 4.2 to 4.3 in August, but it was bound to eventually come down after post pandemic highs, and it was not a crash landing, but a soft landing that was previously scoffed at by some economists and lawmakers, but now seems apparent.

That, in and of itself,  has prompted strong reactions: 

“This is a bit of a surprise. The 50 [basis point] cut suggests an abrupt switch of focus back to the maximum employment mandate and a very sharp improvement in confidence in inflation progress in the last month and a half,” Brian Coulton, chief economist at Fitch Ratings, said in a reported commentary.

The Hill stated, “While some economists believe the Fed could have started cutting rates in July, the next few months are critical as the central bank attempts to bring the economy in for a “soft landing,” maintaining its dual mandate of low inflation and maximum employment as it brings down rates.”

Politically, it also has helped President Biden, even in his waning days, who had said in earlier comments that the increasing inflation was only “transitory.”

Democratic presidential candidate and Vice President Kamala Harris issued a statement where she clarified  that this action by the Fed was not the end of the road for inflation, and said, “while this announcement is welcome news for Americans who have born the brunt of high prices, my focus is on the work ahead to keep bringing prices down.”

Politics is a strange bedfellow, and while the Federal Reserve has always maintained its independence from the White House and Congress, it's also sparked alarm and drew dire warnings from lawmakers such as Elizabeth Warren, if the cuts were not taken.

“The uptick in unemployment and consumer-friendly CPI reading sparked concerns and renewed criticisms that the Fed may be behind on interest rate cuts, with Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) and John Hickenlooper (D-Colo.) arguing in a Monday letter to Powell that the central bank’s “delays have threatened the economy and left the Fed behind the curve,” according to The Hill.

Warren, along with Sens. Whitehouse and Hickenlooper, also "pressed Powell on Monday to cut rates by 75 basis points, a highly unlikely move that exceeds the 50 basis point cut forecasted by most interest rate traders, according to the CME FedWatch tool,” added their report. 

“It is clearly the time for the Fed to cut rates. In fact, it may be too late: your delays have threatened the economy and left the Fed behind the curve,” the lawmakers wrote.

They are not alone, and there are many others that feel the same way, despite this good news, that the Fed was behind the curve of inflation, and to that Powell has retorted, “We don’t think we’re behind,” he said. “We think this is timely, but I think you can take this as a sign of our commitment not to get behind.”

A 75 basis point cut would have been impossible, according to other economists, giving the sense that the Fed was admitting that they were wrong, or were behind the curve; and, the markets would have gone crazy; and, also does not want to give even a scintilla of support for political operatives, on other side of the aisle.

What was not evident, and is largely assumed, is that the Fed may have been concerned about the labor market and wanted to get ahead of the possibility of either a weakened labor pool, or one that could be too strong in months to come. 

Earlier remarks posited that employers were hoarding employees and keeping them on the payroll to avoid bringing them back at even higher wages in anticipation of an economic comeback, but as we all learned on standardized tests, “there are no penalties for guessing.”

It’s not over, note some observers and have said “This would only be the first cut of a rate-cutting cycle. The size and frequency of future cuts will give us a better understanding of whether the Fed believes they are behind, or ahead of, ‘the curve,’” said Jonathan Ernest, an economics professor at Case Western Reserve University.

Challenges to voter rolls in 2024 by conservatives

With the die cast for the 2024 US Presidential election, and both the Republican and the democratic conventions being held and the verbal brickbats being thrown, and the less than 70 days before voters go to the polls on Nov. 5, and the polls grinding out data, right and left, and every utterance from Donald Trump, JD Vance, Kamala Harris and Tim Walz being treated as sacrosanct, there is one important aspect that does not seem to get as much attention from voters, as it should be, and that is voter access, specifically conservative groups making unsound allegations and charges of voter fraud towards state election boards.

Voter access is certainly not a new issue as American history has shown, especially during the turbulent 1960s when Black Americans were not given equal access, and blood was spilled, and demonstrations held, notably by Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. that garnered headlines in Alabama and Georgia, to name but two states.

In the Southwest, Mexican Americans also fought a bitter fight to get voter equality with the white majority. And, the battle continued recently with efforts by now Chief Justice John Roberts, and his success at efforts to nullify the Voting Rights Act of 1965. And, while literacy tests were outlawed, those Southern states who had the most egregious laws of inequality have lost their examinations, called preclearance, to ensure that the laws were adhered to, but now there are efforts to disenfranchise voters across party lines, as well as those of race and ethnicity.

The loss of the White House in 2020 by the GOP has stung them ever since along with the continued falsehood that Trump was cheated by the Democrats to get Joe Biden elected, and conservative groups have marshaled their armies to examine state voter rolls looking for voter fraud, and charging that non citizens have, and are continuing to vote despite the lack of evidence, even from former Trump administration officials.

Earlier this year Scot Hoen, Carson City Nevada’s chief election official, has kept his eye on the ball of election integrity believing, as reported by The Alabama Reflector, that he was doing the right thing for democracy. Little did he know that this was going to be as heroic, even tortured, as imaginable.

He was named in a lawsuit by the Republican National Committee, along with Nevada county clerk, as well as the secretary of state, alleging “that five localities had ‘inordinately high’ voter registration rates, and that the state is violating federal law by not having what are known as ‘clean’ voter rolls.”

The state responded by saying that there was flawed data used by the RNC and that their analysis was like “comparing apples to orangutans.”

Notably, as reported, “Former President Donald Trump’s lawyers assert without evidence that more than 1,500 dead Nevadans voted in 2020 and that an additional 42,000 in the state voted twice.”

Humor aside, these efforts have continued unabated and, now that Harris has exceeded her post convention “bump”, the stakes are high, as we said previously that the race, with her entrance, is no longer his to lose.

Unsurprisingly, these are occurring in “the “blue wall” states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, the centerpiece of Democratic campaigns that have won the White House in recent decades,” as identified by the Associated Press.

Historically, accusations by the GOP have been around since the 1960 election, with beliefs that John F. Kennedy was elected over Richard Nixon due to dead people voting.

Now with a deeply polarized nation, beset by concerns about asylum seekers and illegal immigration, police brutality against Black persons, and LGBT people, and the rights of parents of transgender children, plus economic concerns, American votes are at stake.

Aided by technology, conservative groups are pumping out mass challenges to plant falsehoods, and in another battleground state, Michigan, officials also faced a similar lawsuit, filed by the RNC in the same month.

David Becker, founder and executive director of the center for Election Innovation & Research, a nonpartisan organization that advises local election officials nationwide, told the Reflector, “When you see efforts to do mass challenges in the midst of the presidential primaries and months before a major election, i've got to wonder whether the intent is to create chaos and confusion amongst voters rather than legitimate list maintenance.”

Adding fuel to the fire the Republican led Georgia state government passed a recent bill that has been to “challenge voters and for how much evidence is needed to a successful challenge. It would also cut off registration removals within 45 days of an election,” as reported.

Indiana’s governor, Republican Eric Holcumb signed into law a bill that easily facilitates removal of voters with a comparison of “voter registration lists with motor vehicle lists for noncitizens,” and if a voter is flagged they would have 30 days to prove their citizenship.

Aided by tech, specifically a company called Eagle AI, that was developed to scan Georgian’s voter records, all of which not only places the onus on voters, in some states, but occupies valuable time of election officials.

The conservative groups have morphed to more than just that one, and there are those that have pushed back forcefully, and among them is All Voting is Local Action, a voting rights group, and Kristen Nabers, the Georgia state director, has said, as reported: “They’re perpetuating these lies that our voter toll are full of fraudulent voters and bloated.” and noted, “The burden on election officials is really considerable.”

Another stalwart is the Public Interest Legal Foundation, whose director Lauren Bowman Bis is quoted as saying that there have “been a lot of questions” for the 2020 election, continuing the mythology of a stolen election that defeated Trump, and she has claimed that she”has gone to cemeteries in Michigan, she said, she has seen name of active voters on tombstones.”

This group has outposts in Hawaii, Michigan and South Carolina, and “they have successfully sued Illinois and Maryland and gained access to those state’ voter lists,” reported the Reflector.

Their reach has even extended as far north as Maine, in another successful lawsuit to gain access to voter rolls.

The Voter Reference Foundation, sued Pennsylvania in February to gain similar access, and as with the others claiming that their goal is voter integrity, but at question is with the methodology, where outdated rolls are used in comparison to current data, a not so sleight of hand trick to make false claims.

Another route is using change of address forms when mail is forwarded, with current rolls but as the Brennan Center for Justice has stated, there is no accounting for people with the same names. But, they point out that “the good news is that county election boards have consistently rejected these challenges of the last few years. Over and over, the boards said that challengers don't provide enough evidence to remove anyone from the rolls.”

While these groups are undeterred, says the Center, it’s also obvious that in an already close presidential election with a history of the GOP using obfuscation, and falsehoods, which resulted in violence with the January 6th Capitol riots, that the road ahead is littered with minefields, and have stretched from voter access to disenfranchisement that will increasingly become difficult for some voters, who may feel hesitant to vote, especially with some vigilante groups predicting violence at the polls.

August Jobs Report shows a cooling job market

The August Jobs Report released on Friday by the US ,Bureau of Labor and Statistics brought a certain measure of concern from both economists and laypeople alike, with 142.000 non farm jobs, after an expected 160,000, but while there was some wringing of hands, it was a fair assessment of what was expected after the immediate post pandemic figures of 939.000 jobs, a high that was bound to come down, and the unemployment rate was a modest 4.2 percent.

While some US employers may have hoarded workers to avoid layoffs and downward trends in profit, this reluctance did not translate into the doom and gloom some observers might have seen it as,but rather as Jeffry Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial noted to Reuters, “Businesses are still adding to payrolls,but not as indiscriminately.”

Certain key features of this report showed a level of stasis in both labor force participation, little changed from previously at 62.7, and 4.8 million people working part time for economic reasons.

Equally, there were 24,000 people that wanted a job, virtually unchanged from the July report.

All things considered this report showed solid growth, despite some concern about employment in some areas, but notable is that wages have kept up for most workers with inflation, as we also saw in July; but, this month average hourly earnings for all private non farm payrolls rose by “14 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $35.21. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.8 percent”

There were some economists that showed a level of concern with the June revisions, a standard for these reports, due to reporting time; and June is now 118,000 jobs gained, and this, too, shows a stable pattern.

As Reuters reported, these revisions are not atypical and are representative of 10 of the last 13 years of job reports. But, some are seeing this as not only a cause for concern but signs of a recession, a durable position taken by some.

Areas that have peaked from this report are somewhat similar to earlier reports: Construction which has been a constant, reaching 34,000, and “higher than the average monthly gain of 19,000 over the prior 12 months,” health care at 31,000, but half than the average monthly gain of 60,000 from the previous 12 months.

Manufacturing, a cause of concern of the presidential candidates in the November election, edged down, says the report, but noted that, “manufacturing employment has shown little net change over the year,” and, social assistance continued its upward trend, over 13,000, “but at a slower pace than the average monthly gain over the past 12 months,” perhaps reflecting a greater investment in some communities.

What we didn't see was the usual back to school bump in education employment, but that might be due to the end of the collection period, and might be reflected in the September report.

Of course, no discussion of the monthly jobs report would be complete without the elephant in the room, inflation, and its effects on consumers, and their actions in the national economy.

While there has been a downward trend in inflation, 2.9 percent for August, and that rate has prompted Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to say,that, “the time has come for policy to adjust,” at last month's meeting at Jackson Hole Wyoming; that said, much of the American public is focused on higher grocery prices, nearly obfuscating his anticipated actions in September to lower interest rates.

Predictions are for at least a 0.25 percent reduction

That aside, the main drivers of inflation, and its contributing factors tilt towards the costs of shelter, transportation and vehicle insurance, as the average person attempts to balance their monthly budgets. 

It’s a tight squeeze and the cooling, no matter how slight in the job market, and current interest rates, prices in some key areas will continue to rise, allowing for seasonal variations, as federal departments don’t seasonally adjust every consumer item, and experts advise that examining annual rates allow for a better picture; but, it’s also a good bet that most consumers are not going to look into, or take the time, to examine those detailed reports.

Inflation does have deleterious effects in many areas, but two key effects are in retirement savings, and savings accounts, but consumers do feel hamstrung between the higher prices of many common grocery items from frankfurters to instant coffee.

All in all, as Mark Hamrick, senior economist analyst at Bankrate, said to The Hill, “The August snapshot is consistent with other data pointing to a weakening job market, including a reduction in job openings pointing to relative balance between the supply and demand of labor.”

It also underscores the job that Powell and the Federal Reserve have done at balancing movements at calibrating between too much or too little action to preserve its traditional path at keeping inflation at 2 percent and the nation at full employment, a data driven task, but one that seems to have been met.

DNC in Chicago: Introducing Kamala Harris

On Monday the Democratic National Convention is coming to town, and that town is Chicago, with its beautiful lakefront, architecturally significant buildings and a myriad of entertainment venues for almost every taste, and interest. It is also, of course, the moment of recognition of Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democrats introduce her to the nation as the successor to President Joe Biden who stood down in his own candidacy at the end of July.

Her campaign has energized the Democrats changing the tenor of the November presidential campaign from one of anxiety to one of dynamic energy, and in the near 30 days with her transition and nomination as candidate there have been untold dollars pouring into her campaign, and has also brought not only renewal to the party, but also for the Republican candidate, former President Donald Trump, a real game change that has thrown him off guard, forcing him to take the lead, since it was built in an elaborate scheme to denigrate Biden; and, decry not only his policies, but also to cast him as old, and out of touch, not to mention corrupt, along with his son Hunter, and other family members.

Now that plan is in shambles.

Trump, now, is the one that looks old, and corrupt, with his 34 felony counts, his numerous schemes of tax evasion, his sexual impropriety, and of course, the thousands of lies that he has shared in social media, in his infamous debate with Biden, and incoherent press conferences, not to mention the false remarks he made about Harris’ racial identity at the recent Chicago meeting of the National Association of Black Journalists.

The once popular media slogan, “his to lose” has lost its luster as Harris steps up to the plate armed with a reformed agenda, built from the Biden administration, but adapted to her own, and her party’s re-identification, is not one not so easily dismissed by the GOP, and its companion megaphone at Fox news have tried to do.

The meteoric rise of Harris, in such a short space, has not allowed her to spell out specific policies, or a broad platform, as her predecessors have done, with the exception of economics, but both the short timeline as well as the momentous energy that she has harnessed has also worked in her favor, avoiding the pitfalls of revealing too much, and allowing the energy and extent to build her up, is both deliberate and well calculated.

One major issue that she will face, along with increased demonstrations, expected to be large, perhaps spilling outside of the physical confines that Chicago city attorneys have carved out, is the war in Gaza, and the increased anger generated from the long standing alliance between the United States and its chief ally, Israel.

It will be a hard direction to shift with the death of nearly 40,000 Palestinians, the bombings by Israeli warplanes and the thousands of people, especially women and children whose suffering is seen nearly daily on network television stations, as well as news websites. And, the recent bombing of a school by Israel has generated outrage from many in the US, from Palestinian Americans, fellow Muslims, and their allies, as the death toll mounts.

“Just hours after the Biden administration Friday announced approval of $3.5 billion in military funds for Israel and shipments for new weaponry, an Israeli bombing of a school-turned-shelter in Gaza has killed 100 people or more, including scores of civilian men, women, and children in what was described as a "bloody massacre" that struck during morning prayers, leaving body parts scattered "in pieces" and healthcare workers overwhelmed with the dead and wounded,” reported commondreams.org

Our email inbox has been flooded with press releases showing their contempt for Biden, as well as Harris, and perhaps no other issue can define what needs to be a turning point in her favor.

One press statement from Revcom Corps Chicago accompanying its calendar of protests and demonstrations said: “As Bob Avakian has pointed out This is not a time to be siding with one group of oppressors or another. This is a rare time—a very rare opening—a chance that may come only once in a lifetime—a chance to take advantage of the deep divisions among the ruling oppressors and go after their whole system, with the aim of bringing the whole thing down, and putting something much better in its place.”

Harris also has to face economic proposals to what, even if she wins, could face opposition in an unchanged House and a very slim majority in the Senate, unless those races, mostly in swing states, are successful to give her an edge in Congress, because a president may propose, but Congress disposes.

One plan released in North Carolina on Friday during a campaign stop outlined a major effort to help the middle class but received some criticism from The Washington Post, but was defended by Rep. Hakeem Jeffries.

The Hill reported that, “Harris outlined a series of economic policy proposals and “she called for a federal ban on corporate price-gouging. CNN’s Jake Tapper asked Jeffries on “State of the Union” whether he backed her plan to ban price-gouging.”

“Kamala Harris has articulated a very important plan to make sure that we are lowering costs for everyday Americans, that we are ending price gouging throughout the country, and that, of course, we are growing the middle class and making sure that everyday Americans can get ahead. So, we, as House Democrats, look forward to working with Kamala Harris to drive costs down,” Jeffries said on CNN

“The Washington Post editorial board hit Harris over her newly announced economic agenda on Friday, characterizing the plan as “populist gimmicks.”

“Vice President Kamala Harris’s speech Friday was an opportunity to get specific with voters about how a Harris presidency would manage an economy that many feel is not working well for them,” the board wrote in an editorial Friday. “Unfortunately, instead of delivering a substantial plan, she squandered the moment on populist gimmicks.”

Jeffries’ careful response centered on the pandemic, the Jan 6 riots as inherited by the Biden administration, and defended the vice president on what was a clear indication of work to do.

It’s also quite clear that not releasing a comprehensive platform was wise by the Harris campaign. But, this partial glimpse does give a sense of her priorities, and centering them on the middle class is a wise move considering the struggle that many have, even with wages that have exceeded inflation; and, in particular “proposing $25,000 in down payment help for certain first time homeowners and tax incentives for builders iof starter homes, as the Associated Press reported on Friday will garner more attention.

Not surprising is the reaction from the Trumpers, who were rife with criticism, and “Trump campaign spokesman Brian Hughes calling her plan representative of “the most socialist and authoritarian model,” added  the AP.

Rounding out the list of major issues is immigration, and migration, especially for those asylum seekers, the majority form Venezuela, who have been abused since 2021 by Southern governors, notably Greg Abbott of Texas.

With no legislative action by Congress since the 1980s and Trump ordering Republican lawmakers not to work on a recent bipartisan immigration deal, the fate of many has hung in the balance, and the border crisis, albeit with slower border crossings, has become a cause celebre for the GOP and Harris has received condemnation for being the “Border Czar” even though she never held that title and was tasked only by Biden with identifying root causes.

Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona, previously considered as her running mate, told  CBS “Face the Nation” that he has every confidence in a Harris presidency to reform the system.

A recent proposal by the Biden administration titled “Parole In Place” has launched through the Department of Homeland Security, offers legal status to undocumented people married to Americans without the necessity of returning to their home countries, and possibly, under older terms, denied re entry.

It eventually can lead to citizenship if all conditions are met, but a Harris win can only use this as part of a multi pronged attempt to give balance to hundreds of thousands of those seeking asylum from violence plagued, and corrupt countries, and seeking refuge in the United States.

This, and other proposals, legislation and executive action will be some heavy lifting for Harris, if she wins, but also along with economics, could prove, if successful, to be a major legislative win for her administration.

Harris’ appearance will be bolstered by some heavy hitters this week, among them Biden on opening night in a farewell tribute to his long legislative leadership, as well as former President Barack Obama, Bill Clinton, and former presidential candidate Hillary Clinton; and security is tight with more than 500 police from various neighboring states as well as the Illinois National Guard.

Memories have bypassed the successful and peaceful 1996 Chicago DNC that nominated Bill Clinton, and most residents, and media, have focused on the infamous events of the 1968 convention, but as Chicago Police Chief Larry Snelling has said, “The Chicago Police Department does a great job of working through events like this will be no different.”

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