May Jobs Report: Still solid for the US

The jobs outlook for May, according to the US Dept. of Labor is still strong despite the threats of the tariffs from the Trump administration, and despite a slight softening from the previous month, and what was expected 139,000 non farm jobs is still a solid report and one that has surprised many observers, and economists, and despite expectations did not show a downturn from these tariffs.

This good news shows that despite the politicization of the American economy, all is well, and gave rise to accolades from the Administration, and The Council of American Advisors Chair Steve Miran, noted, "The President is succeeding in creating hundreds of thousands of jobs since he came into office, more than half a million jobs since he came into office, and they’re all going to native born Americans.”

The unchanged rate of 4.2 unemployment was also satisfactory, although predicted, but what changed was a lessening of the labor force participation rate among prime aged workers, those aged 25 to 54, who were looking for work, which dropped to 83.4, betraying, perhaps, a lack of confidence from Americans.

That stands in contrast to the average wages, that exceed inflation, which rose 0.4 percent from April, now at $36.24 an hour; and, even further American consumers are still spending, perhaps in no small measure to the increased wages, but, as some observers have noted, that spending may be to save money on goods to avoid the “on again off again” tariffs from the president.

Consumer confidence has waxed and waned in the last 8 weeks, with concerns about tariffs, and layoffs, but The Conference Board reported for May, that consumers were feeling more upbeat than thought:

“Consumer confidence improved in May after five consecutive months of decline,” said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board. “The rebound was already visible before the May 12 US-China trade deal but gained momentum afterwards. The monthly improvement was largely driven by consumer expectations as all three components of the Expectations Index—business conditions, employment prospects, and future income—rose from their April lows.”

They also emphasized this: “However, while consumers were more positive about current business conditions than last month, their appraisal of current job availability weakened for the fifth consecutive month.”

If this seems like a conundrum, then it is, with indicators expressing some level of confidence, and some improved beliefs, but, perhaps cautiously optimistic might be the best estimation.

The New York Times opined that, “The steady hiring is an indication that businesses are still seeing enough demand for goods and services that they will fill open roles and add new ones, even if they're no longer expanding as quickly as they had over the past few years.”

To note, for May, as seen in preceding months, the heavy hitters are health care jobs, coming in at 78,000 and leisure and hospitality at 48,000; but while others fell flat, manufacturing took a nosedive to the tune of 8,000 jobs.

DOGE cuts to the federal work force disposed of 22, 000 federal jobs in May, and according to the Times report, "down 59,000 since January. That’s not counting those on administrative leave, or who were let go when federal contacts were cut.”

It should be mentioned that a significant reason that health care is booming is due to an aging population in the US, coupled with social assistance, a broad category that includes, social work, allied health and community based programs from local and state governments.

This has not quelled the worries of Main Street, as well as Wall Street, since uncertainty is the one thing that both do not like. How that bodes for the future is anyone’s guess since no one can determine with any certainty what the end game is for the Trump efforts, is it a negotiation tactic? If so, that does not seem evident, as we noted some months ago covering the “Liberation Day” announcement in the White House Rose Garden, and the placard showing tariff rates held aloft by the president, that most experts discounted as fanciful.

The intersection with the global community cannot be discounted as it affects not only consumer purchases, but in the larger scheme, foreign trade, underscoring the fact that no country can produce all goods,(and even services) domestically.

The fly on the wall, at least according to statements from Trump in his social media platform, “Truth Social” and statements from White House press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, is that he is upset with Chair Jerome Powell of the Federal Reserve, and has labelled him as a “disaster” and nicknamed him “Too Late” in his refusal to drop interest rate, as the Chair has steadfastly tried to separate the bank’s behavior from politics.

Trump’s beliefs are also supported by Vice President JD Vance who seems not to understand the role that interest rates, and putting more money into the economy curtail, all tied to inflation; and, how when there is too much money in the economy, leading to inflation, higher rates cool the economy down, and when lowered are needed, to stimulate the economy.

The current rate of inflation, 2.3, does not indicate a need to lower interest rates.

In a note to clients, and reported by the Times, Lindsay Rosner of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, said this report was too strong to warrant the Feds to cut interest rates, and, “with the Feds laser focused on managing the risks to the inflation side of its mandate, today’s stronger than expected jobs report will do little to alter its patient approach.”

April Jobs Report: Rinse and repeat

The April Jobs Report issued on Friday from the US Dept. of Labor was a solid report that gave 177,000 non farm jobs, an unexpected jump from the 130,000 predicted, and with an unemployment rate of 4.2 holding steady it seemed to be a surprise to many observers, especially economists, and many US residents, most of whom were expecting a steep decrease with the news, for months, of federal job cuts from the Department of Government Efficiency led by Elon Musk; but, those numbers are not reflected in this report, since those cuts predated the April data collection.

If March’s report was the calm before the storm, then this is a continuation of the same, and most importantly with the “on again, off again” tariffs promulgated by President Trump in his series of economic injunctions by executive order, as his tool, and not through Congress, the future of the US economy remains uncertain. 

Indeed economic uncertainty has dominated the country for the last 100 days, and there have been steady predictions of financial doom, and fears of a recession; and, taking them in their entirety, there is just cause to worry, as the effects would be born by American consumers, especially lower income families who, as we noted last month, face increased expenditures of at least $1,200 each month.

Trump, however on Friday, reacting to the report, characteristically, remarked, “Just like I said, and we’re only in a TRANSITION STAGE, just getting started!!! Consumers have been waiting for years to see pricing come down,” 

The Hill reported an anomaly cited by Trump when he added that “prices for gasoline and groceries were already far lower than federal and private-sector data shows.”

That aside, April showed consistency across key factors, such as labor force participation, racial and gender employment.

Areas that held strong were health care with an increase of 51,000; transportation and warehousing at 29,000; and, financial activities (a loosely defined category) with an increase of 14,000 job gains.

Especially notable was that there was no significant change in construction and manufacturing, coupled with LFP at 62.6 percent.

“Another stronger than expected jobs report is encouraging, although definitely not top of mind considering the ongoing uncertainty around tariffs and global trade,” Joe Gaffoglio, CEO and President at Mutual Of America Capital Management, wrote in a commentary, and reported by The Hill.

“While the labor market continues to be a bright spot, that could change quickly if the imposition of tariffs leads to disruptions in supply chains and global trade.”

Future tariffs, now, on Monday focusing on “foreign” made films, looming chaos for the American economy continues, but will also roil European markets, as well; and, with holiday retail buyers looking to fill the stores for the Christmas holiday, it is unlikely to be good news, especially since 80 percent of toys sold in America are made in China.

Trump has stated that girls may get two dolls instead of 30, this Christmas, and that they might cost more, scant consolation for parents, who are also facing higher housing costs, despite average wages for April coming in at $36.06, representing a 0.2 wage increase, and for the past year is up 3.8 percent, but, while that has kept up a solid pace overtaking inflation since mid 2023,” most working people do not feel positive about their future.

If perception is three tenths of the law, that wage increase may not mean much, and with many people believing that the American president controls and sets prices on groceries, and gasoline, the president may be in a crunch, and while his base has remained loyal, for the most part, recent polls show that between 52 and 53 percent of Americans believe that his handling of the economy is weakening their support.

Food prices are rising and a trip to even discount grocers show price increases, and the Dept. of Agriculture predicts that “food costs will rise faster than the historical average this year.” 

With many food imports coming from Mexico and other foreign markets, tariffs will increase those costs, especially for discount super markets such as Aldi, who rely on foreign imports.

As The New York Times stated, “The vast majority of data analysts say the eventual effect of President Trump's high tarriffs on the labor market will be fully appreciated in the weeks and months to come, Still, the early impact is reverberating through financial markets, global freight patterns and corporate business plans.”

Currently, and this is a qualifier, as Trump has shown in his previous administration, a propensity to change course, they include 145 percent tariffs on China and 25 percent tariffs on Canadian and Mexican products not covered under the North American trade agreement.

There is a conundrum with the emphasis being on goods, yet the US economy is increasingly oriented “around services, which constitute about 70 percent of U.S. commercial activity,” said the Times, while noting that “good purchases still make up a major chunk if household spending, and more than 40 percent of U.S. manufacturers rely on imported parts or finished goods,” and we see this especially in the auto industry that has serious fears that their profits would be greatly diminished by the Trump tariffs.

The Times reported on Monday that, “The Trump administration has levied 25 percent tariffs on imported vehicles and auto parts. It has raised tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, which are used extensively in cars and trucks.”

Retaliatory tariffs are likely, and Ameicans can expect to pay more for a new car, and already there were long lines to buy new cars before the tariffs took effect, especially for foreign made vehicles which are 50 percent of those sold in the country.

The iconic American car maker Ford announced a profit loss, as reported by the Times, when they said, “Ford Motor said on Monday that the Trump administration’s tariff policies were likely to lower its 2025 profit, before interest and taxes, by about $1.5 billion. The company also dropped its forecast for the year, saying that predicting the future had become too hard.

Ford is less affected by President Trump’s 25 percent tariffs on vehicles than other automakers because most of the vehicles it sells in the United States are made in the country. General Motors said last week that the tariffs would increase its costs $4 billion to $5 billion this year.”

“This is a major shift in U.S. trade policy, especially as it affects trade between the United States, Canada and Mexico. For decades, cars and auto parts have been shipped across North America with little or no tariffs”, added the Times.

There is great fear “that consumers will cut back so aggressively that business will be forced to lay off workers, worsening the economic slowdown,” and with the triple digit tariffs on goods coming from China, a boon for lower income individuals and families, those bargain clothes, coming from Chinese companies such as Temu, Shein and AliExpress, increases affordability, as we noted in our March analysis, quoting an earlier news report, from the Times, acknowledging that while cheap Chinese goods do hurt American manufacturers, these lower priced goods, “are in effect a pay increase, leaving consumers with more money to spend on goods and services.”

The American consumer, the established driver of the economy, is already adjusting their buying habits, and a recent poll cited that 49 percent, nearly half of all Americans have “delayed or sped up purchases as a result. Those figures are far higher for Black (70 percent) and Latinor (71 percent) adults.”

While inflation has significantly lowered than in the past, it is slightly above what the Federal Reserve would like to see, at 2 percent, and core inflation for April was the lowest increase in nearly four years; and, as a reminder it strips out the most volatile components like gas, and energy, and is a key predictor for economists to track where inflation is headed.

Of equal concern is the contraction of the GDP last week to an annualized rate of -0.3 percent in the first quarter, according to the Commerce Dept. last Wednesday, the nation’s worst quarter since 2022, after Trump took office.

Trump blamed former President Joe Biden, saying that the US would have to get rid of the Biden “Overhang”, and that the decrease had nothing to do with the threat of tariffs, “only that he left us with bad numbers,” and urging Americans to be patient.

The Fed meets this week on May 7, and is unlikely to lower interest rates in lieu of this solid report, and will hold off any rate changes until there is less economic uncertainty; noting that current rates are holding steady at a range of 4.25 percent to 4.5 percent.

Again, the worst fear is that consumers will cut back “so aggressively that businesses will be forced to lay off workers, worsening the economic slowdown.”

March Jobs Report: the calm before the storm

For many economists the March Jobs Report released on Friday by the US Bureau of Labor and Statistics gave some restrained  squeals of delight, since it showed a higher than expected gain of 228,000 jobs, far less than the 135,000 many expected, and it also gave some concern for the future of two key areas: interest rate changes from the Federal Reserve, and the heavily promoted, but not yet announced, tariff program by President Donald Trump, and there was a collective tension among those whose job is to take the temperature on the American economy, the largest in the world; and, that palpable tension could be felt across the nation.

In and of itself, the report showed an unemployment rate of 4.2 percent, steady, slightly higher than previous months, but enough to give a measure of satisfaction, and against a background of interest rates holding steady at 4.25 to 4.5 percent created a background of sureness to those same observers.

There were some patterns that remained the same, ebbing and flowing, but fairly predictable in light of previous reports: government employment, swelling to 6,000; retail at 24,000 (in part ot the retreat of severe winter weather); 54,000 in health care; 23,000 for transportation and warehousing,all giving rise to a predictable report.

Wages were also up 0.3 percent with a year on year total of 3.8 percent year over year, and with current inflation, those would keep many heads above water, for the moment,

Trump weighed in, expressing joy, and in a post on social media, reported by The New York Times, saying in his characteristic all caps: GREAT JOB NUMBERS FAR BETTER THAN EXPECTED. IT’S ALREADY WORKING.”

This may have been premature but it is a typical response from the president, but like those prior months we see the main drivers leading in health care and social assistance, giving “a combined gain of 78,000”.

Revisions, which are a typical pattern by the BLS, now have January and February,  net gains of 45,000, but perhaps Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at the consulting firm RSM,who told the Times, possibly the best remark, avoiding optimism, and said, “What we are really seeing is the calm before the storm.”

That storm came swiftly on April 2, Liberation Day, as the White House titled the announcements of tariffs pegged to the US trade imbalance of 10 to 50 percent across the board and a hefty 25 percent on all foreign cars, pending the following week.

Reactions across the US and abroad were swift and negative, as it threw the global economy into disarray, and the specter of a possible recession; and the net results will affect not not only the tariffs that are paid by US importers; but most importantly, passed onto American consumers in the form of higher prices.

Just beyond, but no less significant, is the threat to long standing alliances with foreign countries, further jeopardizing future interactions with global trade.

Adding tariffs on steel and aluminum will crush the American, Canadian and Mexican auto industry with higher prices, and an exchange of  foreign parts, the result will be higher than average car prices, exceeding the average new US car price of $50,000.

While the Trump administration says its goal is to even the playing field and force foreign companies to make their products in the United States, that goal is hardly feasible, with tariff retaliation, and the near impossibility of suddenly reformatting global supply chains, which in the best case scenario could take years, and considerable expense.

There has been growth in some industries manufacturing in the US, under the Biden administration, yet that hasn't been mentioned by the Trump administration, as it steadfastly clings to its goals.

Considering the massive layoffs in the federal workforce, not reflected in this report since the BLS gathers its data points in the first two weeks of each month, it’s equally important to note that, while some are not technically fired, yet, due to being placed on administrative leave, caused by the Department of Government Efficiency, as a goal of firing even more federal workers.

 After the initial decimation of the US Agency for International Development there are planned workforce reductions of 83,000 employees of the Department of Veteran Affairs by the end of September of this year; 20,000 for the Internal Revenue Service, and a possible 1,155 for the Environmental Protection Agency, among many others with a possible total of 40,000 workers, 80% of them living and working outside of Washington, DC, with a resulting devastation not only to working families, but their local economies.

While there has been rampant criticism of the influx of cheap Chinese goods to the US yet many of them principally clothes, from tee shirts to sweaters have actually been a gain for lower income families, and as an earlier report from the Times noted, “lower prices are in effect a pay increase, leaving consumers with more money to spend on goods and services.”

With widespread price increases, low income families, the poorest, will see a double whammy and Marketplace.org reported, “The Yale Budget Lab also estimated [among other cost increases] that Trump’s tariffs alone will slash disposable income in the poorest households by at least $,1700 a year. Simply put. The lowest income households spend more money on necessities.”

Furthermore, they added how higher grocery prices will affect the same households, noting that the top half of higher income households spend about “10% of their income on food,” but noted Tim Richards, an agribusiness professor at Arizona State University, “But, if you look at the lowest 20% of income earners, they spend 30% of their income on food.”

The national media has been awash in criticisms of the president, but even some conservatives have criticized the formula that the White House has used and as Axios has reported:

• “The administration's calculation assigns a value of 0.25 to that variable, which in the math of price elasticity suggests most of the tariff impact does not hit the import price of an item as it enters the country.

• But the AEI paper says they used the wrong value for import prices, and instead used the value for a retail price, or what happens to the final consumer price after the good is imported and distributed.

• They argue, instead, that the right value is 0.945 — in other words, almost all of the tariff hits the import price of a good as it's brought into the country.

• "It is inconsistent to multiply the elasticity of import demand with respect to import prices by the elasticity of retail prices with respect to tariffs," the authors write.

Supporting the formulaic errors, FactCheck.org discussing tariffs, expanded these assertions by claiming that the formula used on the chart that Trump held aloft in the Rose Garden, is self created,”Those listed numbers are simply not tariffs, but some other made up measure based on a formulaic trade deficit calculation,” noted Kimberly Clausing, a nonresident fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, told us via email. “In almost every instance countries’ true trade barriers are far, far lower.”

What worries people most, not only in the US, but across the world is that these tariffs will create a global recession, and as we have seen the stock market drop in the thousands, not seen in 5 years, these fears are justified.

Paradoxically the president said on Monday, from Air Force One, that he doesn't want to see “anything go down,” but suggested that we have to take a little bad medicine to make things good.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has said that these tariffs and fiscal policies are “worth it” even if they cause a recession, reported the Times, and his position was seconded by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent who added that the economy might need a ‘“detox period” after becoming dependent on government spending.”

Good, however, may be a relative term with many working families, and even the more affluent facing financial  challenges that will affect retirement savings, children, or grandchildren’s education, among other things.

February Jobs Report: two steps forward one back

If you were planning a doomsday scenario for the February Jobs report from the BLS, you might find it hard to find it in what was released on Friday, for it showed a predictable 151,000 non farm jobs, enough to sustain the US jobs market; but, if you were looking closer you would also find concerns about inflation from consumers as we reported last month, where their confidence has dropped. But, a conundrum for some is that while inflation has creeped up steadily, wages are still high enough to offset the increase.

We still have the heavy hitters: health care, financial services, transportation and social services, are all still in the running, as well as warehousing, all of which points to a steady employment outlook for the moment.

More importantly, the broader outlook seems steady, especially with unemployment at 4.1, and the household rate, one that economists watch more closely, is at 71.1 million, virtually  unchanged since February.

What has changed, and what shows concern among many economists and academics is the federal employment reduction, by 10,000 since the beginning of the appointment of Elon Musk and his Department of Government Efficiency by President Donald Trump, and the firings and layoffs of federal employees, designed to reduce, at least at first blush, to save the government money from waste and fraud.

But what in reality, say critics, is an effort to save money for the Trump administration, as it prepares to reignite an increase of the 2017 tax cuts that are due to expire; and, an attempt to raid government coffers to fill the void, which some estimate at 3.3 billion, and judge if a saving of that magnitude is realistic.

A prime example of this were the early efforts to gut the United States Agency for International Development, whose budget was less than 1% of the federal government; falling well short of the mark of eating a huge chunk of government spending. But, politics have taken an equally huge bite into the American economy, and its effect on any reporting cannot be ignored.

Returning to the report, wages have increased to 0.3 % and average $35.93 an hour, enough to meet the demands of inflation currently at 3.00%, up slightly from 2.89% in February.

What worries most consumers are the still higher grocery prices, and especially those of eggs, currently retailing at some discount stores at $4.66 per dozen, but what many are not acknowledging is that this price is attributable to reduced flocks infected with bird flu; and, as some see it, in general, consumers got used to higher overall grocery prices during the pandemic, and some grocers kept them at the same level, defined as price gouging, many are hoping that the president and the treasury secretary address the latter, but that remains to be seen.

In all respects due to change with more DOGE firings, the Labor report noted that, “The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more), at 1.5 million, changed little in February. The long-term unemployed accounted for 20.9 percent of all unemployed people.”

Other markers have remained stable: “The employment-population ratio decreased by 0.2 percentage point to 59.9 percent in February but showed little change from a year earlier. The labor force participation rate, at 62.4 percent, changed little over the month and over the year.”

Of note, “The number of people employed part time for economic reasons increased by 460,000 to 4.9 million in February. These individuals would have preferred full-time employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs,” and this has caused some economists, as we have seen, to worry, especially with more federal layoffs on the horizon.

Economists nevertheless, for the moment, have said that February did provide a stable review of the jobs market, and there was this:

 “This is a fundamentally healthy labor market, continuing its earlier momentum, albeit at a slightly slower pace,” said Justin Wolfers, an economist at the University of Michigan, to The New York Times.

Sensing trouble on the horizon, DOGE aside, “. . .  several labor economists, including Guy Berger at the Burning Glass Institute, a research firm, noted that some trouble may be around the corner, also to the Times.

It was “not a terrible report” but “not a great report,” Mr. Berger said, and “this predates most of the more potent policy actions” from the president. 

He joined the crowded field of economists that also, “expects the unemployment rate to continue to rise in the coming months.”

Diane Swonk, KPMG chief economist has written, “The economy will slow down in the first quarter, “ according to her estimates, and later in media reports, she also added that, ““Headwinds are mounting,” and “Uncertainty is paralyzing, and it is showing up everywhere.”

Part of those headwinds are the continuing whiplash of tariffs on Canada, Mexico, China, and Europe which will have a strong effect on the prices that President Trump has ordered, and also the retaliatory tariffs that these countries have issued. As of Wednesday, there was a 25% tariff on Canadian steel and aluminum, but after Canada retaliated with a tariff on electric supply to the US states of Michigan, Minnesota and New York, there was a call to the Premier Doug Ford of Ontario from Washington, that reduced the doubling, if Ford would pull back on the electricity tariff, a move that was accepted.

This move notwithstanding, the prices of protectionism would result in higher costs for American automobiles as well as packaging of beverages in the US, and as most economists know, a reduction of the workforce

With retail taking a nosedive, even after the customary post holiday plunge, to 48, 375, nationwide, further hits on beverage containers would result in those higher prices for consumers, and possible wage reduction for retail workers..

In that vein, the Chicago based firm of Challenger Gray and Christmas reported that, “The Government led all sectors in job cuts in February. Challenger tracked 62,242 announced job cuts by the Federal Government from 17 different agencies last month. So far this year, the Government has cut 62,530, an increase of 41,311% from the 151 cuts announced through February 2024.

“It appears the administration wants to cut even more workers, but an order to fire the roughly 200,000 probationary employees was blocked by a federal judge. It remains to be seen how many more workers will lose their Federal Government roles,” said Andrew Challenger, Senior Vice President and workplace expert for Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

Not that the US economic drama is ending anytime soon, and many eyes are turning toward the Federal Reserve who have given no indication of cutting interest rates, and according to NPR, Powell told a Senate Committee in February that “with a strong market and with inflation still elevated, he and his colleagues, do not need to be in a hurry” to cut interest rates,” and that still is true, although there is widespread agreement that the Trump tariffs will put an upward pressure on inflation, and rule out any interest rate cuts.

January Jobs still strong despite a decline

The January Jobs report from the US Labor Department on Friday showed a slight dip in the non farm jobs, and this from an expected 175,000, a figure that would have aligned it with the private payroll firm ADP in its Thursday reporting of jobs in the private sector. But, as it was, the 143,000 did not reveal upon examination a weakening of American employment, in fact it showed much of the same detail as the prior months: strong hiring in government, leisure retail trade and hospitality, and the general unemployment rate, what we refer to as the marquee rate, which dipped down to 4.0.

What was remarkable about the report was that, other than the lower figure, it was not remarkable, in fact it has shown a steady stream of numbers that has given a consistency that is remarkable under varied market forces, political winds, and a weakening consumer confidence.

The same data points of prior reports are here; both for the unemployed and its continued litany of sameness: no change along racial or gender; the long term unemployed; those working part time hours that wanted full time work, people that were not in the workforce that wanted a job, and perhaps most significantly for policy wonks, as well as economists, the labor force participation rate which has remained the same at 62.6 percent.

Taking a look at the winners we see health care that added 44,000 jobs, but also showed gains in hospital work of 14,000; retail which enjoyed a good holiday earning margin , ratcheted up to to 34,000 in January; and social assistance added 22,000 jobs, that was “led by individual and family services of 20,000; and government employment held at a steady rate of 32,000.

This is all solid stuff, and for those looking for clouds in the silver lining they are not finding it. For example, it was expected that the fires in Los Angeles County, and the frigid temperatures that much of the nation faced, would be a factor, but DOL ruled this out when it said that these events had “no discernible effect” on employment. Of course, it was also noted in the household survey that record numbers of these workers were absent from their jobs.

While layoffs were up by 28 percent from 38.792 from December of 2024, according to Challenger, Gray and Christmas, they also reported that there was a decrease below 40 percent from the 82.307 from January of 2024.

All in all, most economists agree that, "There is still much to like about the U.S. labor market's resilience and sustainability," said Scott Anderson, chief U.S. economist at BMO Capital Markets, reported Reuters; and he noted, "This report cements the view that the Fed could be on hold for a considerable time before cutting rates again."

In fact, most market observers are saying just that, and there are some that are saying that any rate cuts might occur in mid-year, but at this point that is only speculation.

It bears to remember that the Fed cuts rate in response to the state of the economy: when it overheats and there is threat of inflation, rates are increased, when it cools down and needs stimulation, rates are cut to increase spending, and at this point in time, we are not seeing either scenario to dictate cuts or increases. 

“The Fed left its benchmark overnight interest rate unchanged in the 4.25%-4.50% range last month, having reduced it by 100 basis points since September, when it embarked on its policy easing cycle. The policy rate was hiked by 5.25 percentage points in 2022 and 2023 to tame inflation,” added the news agency.

Taking a broad view, this is a healthy labor market and especially noting that average hourly earnings hit a high of 0.5 percent, “the most since August, after gaining 0.3 percent in December; and, more than enough to meet inflation.

Consumer confidence is a factor that many are examining, and especially the Fed, and in a press statement, The Conference Board, said, in part, the following:

“The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® declined by 5.4 points in January to 104.1 (1985=100). December’s reading was revised up by 4.8 points to 109.5 but was still down 3.3 points from the previous month. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—fell sharply in January, dropping 9.7 points to 134.3. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—fell 2.6 points to 83.9, but remained above the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead. The cutoff date for preliminary results was January 20, 2025.”

As has been noted before the sentiments of the American consumer can loom large, both in perception, one tenth of the law as the old adage states, but if we have the good news, then consumers may see a different reality than that of economists, and even the Labor Dept.

Doing a deep dive into methodology, and statistics, there is a New methodology by DOL for the household survey has resulted in an incomparable reporting of the unemployment rate from December, now at 4.0%, its lowest since May.

One word of caution coming from The New York Times, “James Knightley, chief international economist at ING, has an interesting data point on the “quality” of the jobs being added. Initially, he noted that 78 percent of all U.S. jobs created since 2022 came from only a handful of sectors: government, leisure and hospitality and private education and healthcare. Following January’s revisions, that share has jumped to 88 percent. He adds, “We believe those three sectors tend to be lower paid, less secure and more part-time.”

Politically speaking, the Trump White House has eviscerated the 2024 job gains of the Biden administration, but, in truth, despite the larger revisions of the end of the 4th quarter, there was more substance than they might want to acknowledge, “And while job growth was weaker than earlier estimates showed, the revisions did little to change the overall picture of a strong labor market. Employers added 2.6 million jobs in 2023 and two million in 2024. Over President Joseph R. Biden Jr. 's four years in office, the economy added more than 16 million jobs, although much of that came during his first two years as businesses reopened from the pandemic,” said the Times in their coverage.

“The White House press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, leaned into the narrative that job growth was weaker in 2024 than previously estimated. “Today’s jobs report reveals the Biden economy was far worse than anyone thought, and underscores the necessity of President Trump’s pro-growth policies,” she said in an earlier statement.

Continuing along the political path, there is a great deal of anxiety and worry by many economists and observers, not to mention the average citizenry on the 25 percent tariffs by President Trump that began on Monday, on steel and aluminum from all of US trading partners, beginning March 12; but, as the Council on Foreign Relations reported, it is not clear if these will be in addition to "existing duties, though a White House official said this would be the case for Canada."

With the US importing ha half of aluminum for Canada, and two thirds from Canada, the effects on the American consumer would be great, causing a ripple affect on the cost of military aircraft, but many industries, as they reported use imported steel on specific productions of steel pipes and steel, which would boost production and increase jobs in the country. But, the offset would result "by losses in manufacturing and other industries that rely on steel."

As can be guessed, the cost of job loss and increased prices from consumers would be great, as it was done in 2018 in response to Trump tariffs.

The biggest job losses are from the federal government with the gutting efforts by the Department of Government Efficiency, headed by Elon Musk, but also many average working Americans who work in related industries that would affect their kitchen table issues, quite literally fruit and vegetables from Mexico, and lumber and auto parts from Canada; which has created tensions on the borders between the two countries, especially seen in Windsor, Ontario and Detroit, where hundreds of auto parts as well as automobiles cross between the two countries.

Anticipating the hardships that Americans might endure, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, in a video warned Americans of the pending economic consequences.

Economists have warned that the average American household expense would rise to $1200 per year if they are enacted.

Recent news has shown the bloodletting from these losses, and what is known, now, but with more to come, are from a workforce of nearly 200,000 workers across the country. Here is just a partial list of those that now face unemployment: USAID, 10,000; Dept. of the Interior, 2,200; Small Business, 20% of its workforce; Dept. of Energy, 1200 to 2000; Centers for Disease Control, 10 %; Dept. of Homeland Services, 400,00; and in Veteran Affairs, 1,000 of the 43,000 probationary employees were fired.

And there is more to come in the coming days and weeks

Finally, there is Immigration, or the presence of illegal, or undocumented, immigrants to the US, like them, or not, they have contributed to greater employment in not only agriculture but construction, and manufacturing; and, while there is plenty of blame to be assigned, the fact remains that many local governments participated in the hiring of these workers, often flouting local and state laws that skirted existing federal laws against their hiring. And, their loss, through deportation, adds to the instability of a mostly strong American economy in the coming months.

Updated February 16, 2025 at 10:20 p.m. CST

Trump is back!

It’s official, Donald J. Trump, as of 12:01 p.m. this past Monday, is now the 47th president of the United States, in a country that is still divided, but with his key goal of migrant removal seemingly approved. And, Washington was replete with American flags flapping in the frigid weather, and Republicans lost no time in cris crossing the capital in a show of solidarity, culminating in celebratory parties from Georgetown to Kalorama, two of Washington’s toniest neighborhoods.

His comeback is considered remarkable, but it is no surprise to his base who championed him far and wide. What can be questioned is if he has a mandate, and while true enough that he won the popular vote this time, the win was by approximately 1,000 votes; the electoral college notwithstanding 51.2 percent versus Harris at 47.8.

What is now apparent is that Trump will do his utmost to promote his agenda, and the highlights are: immigration first, and foremost, closing the border, deporting illegal immigrants, and especially those who have committed crimes; dismantling DEI requirements in the federal government and the military; and, putting 25 percent tariffs on Mexico and Canada. 

In a demonstration of his will, Trump immediately signed a slew of executive orders, and one stating that there are only two genders, male and female, an opening salvo in the battle for transgendered rights. 

Perhaps to no one’s surprise he also pulled the US out of the Paris Climate Accord, and the World Health Organization, whom he and other Republicans have criticized for their efforts in public health facing the COVID pandemic.

Next up is the slimming down of the federal bureaucracy, one that he called bloated, and who critics fear he will fill with loyalists. And, while that has not been seen yet, a look at the fact that Trump has remodeled the Republican Party in own image, it's not an empty promise, and on Tuesday, the day after he was inaugurated, he had all Diversity Equity and Inclusion employees in the federal government place on paid leave effective Wednesday,

Perhaps, the most pressing changes are not the promised deportation, as controversial as they are, but the pardon or commutations of the 1500 Jan 6 protestors who stormed the US Capitol building, breaking windows and threatening to hang his vice president, Mike Pence, and to drag Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi from her office

Capitol Hill officers who were guarding both the building, and them, were bombarded with batons, bats, and pepper spray, resulting in the death of Officer Brian Misnick, whose heart could not withstand the sheer physical and mental effort he put forth to defend the building, and its occupants.

It is notable that Trump’s  then running mate, and now Vice President, JD Vance said he would not do so, have now created a dilemma  for the new administration, albeit an unintended consequence of a campaign promise, if not now, then later.

While some Republicans have said that eventually these pardons will fade into the background, it is at odds with the wholesale support of police officers across the nation, by the party, and their supporters.

The promise of mass deportations, roughly estimated to be 12 million undocumented people, has created fear in many of America’s largest, and Democratic cities; but, especially in Chicago, where the designated Border Czar, Tom Homan said will begin in Chicago, has raised the threat level among many undocumented people, despite their age, and socio economic status.

While the popular conception is that undocumented workers are all from Mexico, that is not true, and there are many Indians from South East Asia, China and Vietnam, working across a variety of places in the city.

While below zero temperatures in many parts of the country may have hampered Homan’s efforts, the fear factor remains, especially when the Department of Homeland Security’s Acting Secretary Benjamine Huffman recently changed the rule that schools and churches, once off limits for Immigration and Customs Enforcement arrests, can now be made.

Those efforts culminated in a perceived threat by ICE officials in an elementary school on Chicago’s South Side, Hamline, that later proved to be the Secret Service searching for a public official that they were to guard, but who had disappeared, only to be told later that he was at the school. While that initial report proved to be false, it has put the city on cautious alert, and both Mayor Brandon Johnson, and Governor JB Pritzker have vowed to not support ICE efforts at deportations, with Johnson saying, “We’re going to fight and stand up for working people. That’s what Chicago is known for.”

“Both Chicago and Illinois laws prevent local law enforcement from asking about a person’s immigration status, detaining them because they lack statute and notably, largely bar officers from cooperating with federal agents. There is an exception if ICE agents are looking for individuals with federal criminal lawsuits,” reported local PBS affiliate WBEZ.

Several alder people have sponsored “Know Your Rights” seminars, and some local churches have also done the same, perhaps in response to the plea for mercy from the Episcopal bishop of Washington, the Rev. Mariann Budde in a National Prayer Service, where she told the president, in her sermon, that many people were scared of his policies, and noting that many undocumented people were not criminals, but hard working people.

There are reports of a flight to Guatemala deporting immigrants from the US, approximately 265, on three flights, and one charter, that country said.

Reports of planes to Mexico carrying deportations have not been verified, as of this date; but, Mexico has established tent cities along the border to welcome any Meixans that are deported, and give them health care, and take care of other needs.

Trump’s agenda has been well established along the campaign trail 

All of these moves has angered Democrats, left leaning politicians and their supporters; but, in reality this should also not come as a surprise to them, but as the famous entomologist William Safirre once wrote in his New York Times Magazine column, “the proof of the pudding is in the eating.”

One of the most controversial of Trump’s executive orders is the repeal of the 14th Amendment of the right, not a banishment, of the Constitution, which states that anyone born in the United States is a citizen. Trump says that this can no longer be unless one parent is a citizen. 

Supporters have said on social media that this is a redefinition, not a banishment, but wordsmithing may not hold much weight with constitutional law.

This denial would affect hundreds of millions of people, and has already frightened many families; but, one that might prove to go to the Supreme Court, and we have been told, on background, is the very intention of the new president.

However, reaching back to the civics classes of yore: to change the Constitution of the United States, Congress must call a convention for the proposal of an amendment, after an application of the state legislatures, by two thirds, 34 of the current 50 states, and become valid “only when ratified by the legislatures of, or conventions in, three fourths of the states, (i.e. 38 of 50 states), according to the National Conference of State Legislatures.

On Thursday US District Judge John C. Coughenour,according to the Associated Press, “temporarily blocked” the order, “in the case brought by the states of Washington, Arizona, Illinois and Oregon, which argue the 14th Amendment and Supreme Court Case law have cemented birthright citizenship.”

It’s important to note that executive actions are not legislation, and can be undone by succeeding presidents, but despite either the intent, or the results, this is Trump’s moment.

One cause of concern: Trump is 78, not too much younger than his predecessor, Joe Biden, and with a 40 year old vice president to succeed him, the agenda that is Trump’s could be with the country for a long time.

 

Then again, it might take years to have the Trump agenda codified, for example the dismantling of the DEI office and employees; and, as Noreen Farrell the executive director of Equal Rights, a gender rights group, told the AP, “the reality of implementing such massive structural changes is far more complex.”

The DEI programs had a far ranging effort to help Black majority neighborhoods, “credits for minority farmers,” as well as increasing hiring opportunities for racial minorities, and women.

To note, the initial 2022 rapport released by the federal DEI for the federal workforce, said that it was, “about 60 percent white and 55 percent male overall, and more than 75 percent white and more than 60 percent male at the senior executive level.”

These executive orders are just the tip of the iceberg, administration officials state, and as the nation responds with cheers, and jeers, it’s apparent that Trump is back, and the nation, and the world, is on edge in anticipation of the future.