April Jobs Report brings much needed cooling

High expectations met the reality of lowered numbers for the April Jobs report issued by the US Labor Dept. on Friday giving 175,000 non farm jobs versus the expected 240,000 that most economists and observers predicted, and while some may be disappointed at the news, it’s good news for the Federal Reserve Bank, especially after the end of their recent meeting, where the Federal Open Market Committee decided, in agreement with its chair Jerome Powell, as it gives them some optimism as they deal with higher inflation, from last month’s CPI report, and while it was not a significant climb, it was a claim nevertheless and creates a challenge for the central bank as they struggle to meet their twinned mandate of 2 % inflation, and full employment.

This cooling down might lead the Feds to cut rates, currently on hold for now at 5.3 %, but in what has been a seesaw of many reports, not to mention market reactions, in the not too distant past, many in government and the banking community predicted a recession, and pooh poohed even the very idea of a soft landing that both Powell and Secretary Treasurer Janet Yellen said was going to happen. The fact that there was no recession and that the soft landing in fact occurred shows the unpredictable, but steady, nature of the American economy, over the last 18 months.

“The slower jobs report will be welcome news to the Federal Reserve and signals that interest rate hikes are impacting a labor market that has been extremely resilient over the past few years,” said Joseph Gaffoglio, president of Mutual of America Capital Management to The Hill.

The good news is that despite all, the American economy being solid, the elephant in the room is, of, course, inflation, and after a severe 4th quarter reduction in 2023, and  some dwindling, it rose to 3.5% in March, from 3.2% In February..

“It’s not a bad economy; it’s still a healthy economy,” said Perc Pineda, chief economist at the Plastics Industry Association to The New York Times; “I think it’s part of the cycle. We cannot continue robust growth indefinitely considering the limits of our economy.”

Even with a moderation in wages, to 3/9 %,  they are still above inflationary prices creating a considerable drive in consumer spending, the driver of the US economy, but where does that money come from? As we have noted before, it's still the surplus of pandemic savings, but economists are concerned about what happens when that money runs out, and savings are depleted.

The devil is in the details as the old cliché states, and the heavy hitters, for April, are still showing remarkable strength, with an increase  in health care and education adding 95,000 new jobs, retail which had a shaky report in the 4th quarter of last year, now with a surfeit of 20,000 jobs; construction still resilient with 9,000 new jobs, which some are attributing to state and local building efforts, and manufacturing is holding steady by adding 8,000 jobs, and while leisure and hospitality are still gaining, but at a disappointing 5,000 new jobs.

The unemployment rate inched up to 3.8% not a significant figure but, “Layoffs remained low and most job sectors appeared stable. Wage growth eased notably, though the unemployment rate remained under 4 percent for the 27th consecutive month — the longest stretch in more than 50 years. In fact, some economists said that the April data offered hopeful hints that the economy was headed toward a more stable footing, "reported the Times.

The GDP has increased, albeit slower than desired, at 1.6 annually, and has been attributed to regional challenges in finding a job, the durability of inflation, and those high interest rates that plague some consumers, but as noted, some are still spending freely.

The losers?  That catch all category of business services that showed a negative balance of 4,000, accompanied by a corresponding drop in temporary hires. And, this might be a cost factor since hiring costs have increased by 4.2 %, and were 2.9% in 2023.

One strong area of gains was for women, at prime working age, 25 to 54 years old, at 78 % or 307, 000 and while this is welcome news, there is still an income gap between those with men, and has deeply affected lower income women of color; and, child care, unsubsidized in the US, forces many women to work part time, leading to structural inequality.

Of course, the White House has looked at the report and is pleased, both with the cooling that could lead to future interest cuts, but that the slight uptick in unemployment is still showing a solid economy, and in fact the household telephone survey is nearly tied with this figure.

“Just 34 percent of voters approve of how President Biden has handled the economy, and 29 percent approve of his handling of inflation, according to a recent CNN poll, in their reporting, and “He’s also trailing former President Trump, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, who voters perceive would do a better job with the economy than Biden,” in their coverage for the April report. 

Meanwhile, as was noted, by the Times, “On Truth Social, Donald J. Trump, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, declared the report showed “HORRIBLE JOB NUMBERS.” Under Mr. Trump’s presidency, before the pandemic’s impact took hold in March 2020, monthly job gains averaged about 180,000 — just a tad higher than April’s gain.”

As the 2024 election season ramps up, so has scrutiny of the Fed and its interest rate policy, but the Federal Reserve maintains a traditional detachment from politics, and as Powell noted:

“If you go down that road, where do you stop? So, we’re not on that road. It just isn’t part of our thinking.”

ProPalestine protests reach a boiling point in Chicago

Protests against the US support of Israel in the war in Gaza have reached a fever pitch across the country from San Francisco to Philadelphia, but has hit a highpoint in Chicago with a recent protest on Monday that shut down a stretch of the Kennedy Expressway leading to O”Hare International airport, forcing many passengers in rideshares to abandon those vehicles and walk to the airport, or try to link up with shuttles to catch their planes; while, almost simultaneously a large demonstration occurred in downtown Chicago, and where officers from the Chicago Police Department were called to breakup the demonstration, and arrest as many protestors as possible.

“Chicago Coalition for Justice in Palestine (CJP), of which the U.S. Palestinian Community Network (USPCN)-Chicago was protesting and marching for the 33rd time since October 7th, to stop the U.S.-supported #GazaGenocide against the Palestinian people in Gaza. With no warning or explanation, the Chicago Police Department (CPD) ordered demonstrators to stop the march, even though CJP has marched through downtown streets in almost every single one of the 32 previous mobilizations,” in a statement released later that day.

They also added that “Police officers then began grabbing and pushing protesters,ultimately arresting two young men. In response, CJP organizers suggested that protesters should sit in the street and not move until the two were released. This prompted CPD to violently arrest 12 additional protesters, including a number of the top leaders of CJP.”

For many residents this was a lesson in frustration, and many who were interviewed on local television networks expressed their anger, stating that the police should have shut down the protests in advance before they had reached the standoff at the airport, but for others others this seems to be only a foretaste of what may happen when the Democratic National Party holds its national convention in August at the United Center, and there are fears that this will echo the  infamous 1968 incidents at the DNC when CPD began its violent assault on demonstrators complete with hair pulling, pushing, shoving and beatings with billy clubs.

Already the air is thick with anger from organizations like CJP and USPCN, and even more so when demonstrators from across the country  seeking permits to march near the Center have been denied, thus further organizing them, but they have vowed to march “with or without permits.”

78 representatives from national organizations met before the O’Hare and downtown demonstrations to organize their efforts, including fundraising, hosted by the March on the DNC Coalition, according to the Chicago Tribune who quoted Hatem Abudayyeh said, “The march on the DNC will be the largest mobilization for Palestine in the history of the city.”

“We understand clearly what is happening, especially in the wake of our allies the same morning shutting down the expressway that leads to three of O’Hare airport’s busiest terminals,” said Lara Haddadin of USPCN-Chicago. “CPD has received some kind of directive from federal law enforcement and Secret Service agents to repress protesters in Chicago, knowing that we have pledged to mobilize tens of thousands of Palestinians and others for the Democratic National Convention in August.”

The Chicago Department of Transportation has denied their preferred route and offered an alternate site far away from the convention,four miles away, and along Columbus Avenue, from Roosevelt Road to Jackson Drive, which they have rejected.

All of this is against the backdrop of a federal lawsuit where they demand to be within ”sight and sound” of the convention site.

Much of their belief that they will win is centered on the fact that Mayor Brandon Johnson, who is a stated supporter of free speech demonstrations and has a community organizing background, and Abudayyeh has stated that “we’re asking him and his administration directly to intercede here and to make sure that we get the permits to march within sight and sound of the United Center.”

The number of protestors could see upward of 30,000 people and other members in the hundreds of thousands, and some residents are wondering if CPD and local law enforcement will be able to keep the peace, despite a grant of $75 million in federal funding for security.

Another factor is a mass arrest policy drafted by the police in anticipation of the convention, and the coalitions have requested the judge in the case,Rebecca Pallmeyer, for an injunction against the policy; and, they have the backing of the American Civil Liberties Union of Illinois who claim that it is against freedom of assembly enshrined in the First Amendment of the US Constitution, the Chicago Consent Decree instituted in the waning days of the Obama administration to reduce incidents of police overreach, and CPD’s own policies.

On Wednesday, protestors demonstrated at the United Center when DNC organizers came to Chicago for a walk through of the building and, accordingly, a group of approximately 30 Palestinian and anti-war demonstrators met them in full force.

The nationwide protests have become a source of grave concern for the Democratic party officials in their efforts to reelect President Joe Biden, and with the protest votes against him in the recent primary election in Dearborn, Michigan, with its large population of Arab Americans, previously a reliable voting bloc for the party, that concern is now becoming a reality.

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Blockbuster Madness for March Jobs Report

The recent March Jobs report issued by the US Dept. of Labor has turned the corner on labor in the American economy with a whopping 303,000 non-farm jobs allowing us to stop using the term resilience to describe the steady growth of the labor market over the last four months, in what was expected to have only a number of 212,000 a modest increase considering the previous months revisions.

With a corresponding dip of unemployment to 3.8 %, it is also apparent that with these numbers fears of a recession, often paradoxically hoped for in some quarters, and reverently told to us by random strangers in equally hushed tones; this is now not going to happen.

While some critics, especially some of the curmudgeons in the national media pooh-poohed at the very mention of a “soft landing”, this now appears to be more of a realization than a pipe dream, more than the Federal Reserve could have imagined, or hoped for.

The significance of the report is also borne aloft by the fact that the unemployment figure has held steady, under 4 %, a streak not seen since the 1960s, as The Associated Press heralded in its early coverage.

Of equal significance is that the US economy has gained on average, for the past three months, 276,000 jobs, not seen since the much ballyhooed 251,000 of 2023, and not to be outdone by this is that labor force participation has increased to 62.7 %, with a large surge of 469,000, a hidden gem for Fed Chair Jerome Powell because this has eased the urgency of employers to raise wages to attract workers, and has consequently slowed inflation pressures.

Payroll gains increased by 12 cents on the average at $34.69 an hour, easing wage gain fears that went from 4.3 % to 4.1 %. But it does waggle a finger at the traditional goal of 2 % inflation, along with full employment, the twinned mandate of the Bank, but as we reported last month that goal may reach, according to many observers, a new inflationary standard of 2.5 %, which matches the February increase for inflation, but it should be noted it had fallen from 7.1 % in 2021, and is now 3.2 %.

Despite higher prices, American consumers have continued to buy, and they have less debt to pay off, subprime auto loans aside, and since they are the drivers of the economy, they are in the driver's seat, more often than not, although there is still plenty of complaints to go around, especially with higher grocery store prices, but as we reported in 2023, generally speaking corporate executives realized that consumers were used to paying more, especially with the supply chain bottlenecks during the pandemic, but afterwards keeping them high was to their advantage, and not the fault of President Joe Biden.

If we were to put together the greatest hits of the winners for March we see that health care and social assistance (mostly an umbrella term) covering human services, led at 81,000. The number two spot belongs to local governments who have increased hiring to the tune of 71,000; and construction, still high form February, and still mostly non-residential came in at a strong 39,000, and our old friends in leisure and hospitality, which includes restaurants and bars, raise your glass high people, was at 49,000.

All in all, these stars accounted for 69 % of the hiring in March.

Some, we hesitate to use the term Cassandras, are saying that the high figures for construction were attributable to a mild winter that began in December of 2023, and that may not be sustainable, but again, even with high interest rates there is a true increase, and after all Mother Nature is a fickle figure.

Since this is a presidential election year, and with a deeply polarized country, and a rematch between former President Trump, and Biden, no one is betting the family farm, on who will win, but there is some anxiety as to what could happen: another huge, and permanent tax increase for the wealthiest of Americans, or Biden slaying windmills like Don Quixote, with Ukraine on one side, Gaza on the other and his support for Israel, as an ally; all costing money, not to mention the ongoing migrant crisis with some cities spending millions to care for them with less than desired help from Congress.

Biden has called this report a “milestone” and touted the over 15 million jobs created since he took office, but noted, in full campaign mode, “We’ve come a long way, but I won’t stop fighting for hard working families,” in a statement released by the White House on Friday.

In a recent Wall Street Journal poll of voters from seven swing states, 54% said that Trump would do a better job of handling the economy and Biden coming in at a distant 34 %, but the right leaning Journal is a factor in their reporting.

Inasmuch as any president “controls” the economy, these numbers show that perception is often one-tenth of reality, a perceived one at that.

From that same poll 74 % said that over the last two years, “inflation was moving in the wrong direction.”

Finally, we have the elephant in the room, future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, but as we have often reported, Chair Powell is data driven and will not make hasty, or even feel forced to ask the Federal Open Market Committee for rate cuts unless warranted by the data.

Comforted by the aforementioned soft landing, they are in no hurry to cut rates, although there are predictions that June may see some movemento relief, say many, especially on Wall Street who have “suffered” from the 11 rate hikes from March 2002 through July of 2023, and now is holding them steady between 5.25 % and 5.50 %.

It was later reported by cnbc.com that, “The plot indicated three cuts in 2025 – one fewer than the last time the grid was updated in December. The committee sees three more reductions in 2026 and then two more in the future until the fed funds rate settles in around 2.6%, near what policymakers estimate to be the “neutral rate” that is neither stimulative nor restrictive.”

There are those, as we noted earlier that like to criticize Powell, and among them was Julia Pollak, chief economist at the job market site Zip Recruiter, who in an interview with the AP said, of the March report, “It suggests that the Fed can walk and chew gum at the same time, bringing down inflation without crashing the labor market.”

Ouch!

Powell, true to form, noted after the FOMC meeting: “We believe that our policy rate is likely at its peak for this type of cycle, and that if the economy evolves broadly as expected, it will likely be appropriate to begin dialing back policy restraint at some point this year,” and, "We are prepared to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate for longer if appropriate.”

Political and financial costs of migrants in the US

The ongoing migrant crisis in the United States has become a definitive issue for the country and its elected officials as they attempt to grapple with the influx of over 100, 000 people mostly from Central and South America, after being sent to Northern states by Texas Gov. Gregg Abbott in August of 2023 and has also become a central issue in the November presidential elections, especially by the presumed Republican nominee, Donald Trump, as he attempts to regain the White House after losing to Joe Biden, indeed, immigration has become a central plank in his undeclared campaign platform.

Reprising his previous statements in the 2016 campaign, he has also told his base that the migrants are poisoning the bloodlines of Americans, and blaming the increase to President Biden, who has struggled with the burgeoning crisis, and has given piecemeal contributions to the welfare and housing of their families, as well as to individuals, while there is a deliberate pushback in receiving cities such as Denver, Los Anglees and Chicago where residents have fought against housing them in their communities; but, for some observers,this is ironic,since many are descended from immigrant ancestors.

Despite, or perhaps because of American nativism, seen in the New York Draft Riots of , 1863 and the resulting backlash against Irish arrivals (who were frequently lampooned in cartoons of the era), shows the receptivity of Trump’s message on ready ears. And, he has said, if re-elected, he would round up migrants and deport them to their home countries.

For many Americans there is no distinguishing between asylum seekers, protected by international law, and illegal immigration, and, as some in the national media have noted, for many, the facts don’t matter.

Recently overheard on a bus in Chicago, was an elderly white man yelling about polluted bloodlines by the immigrants, mostly who are Venezuelan, and blaming Biden for “allowing them in,” while some heads nodded in agreement.

Chicago has approximately 12,000 migrants residing in shelters across the city, of the more than 36,300, reported by The Chicago Tribune. 

Taking a wider look, and turning back to Abbott, he has sent, according to the Texas Tribune,102,000 migrants to Northern cities including New York, to the tune of $148 million from his state coffers.

For the receiving cities, the subsequent financial cost has been a burden and the new mayoral administration of Brandon Johnson, has struggled to keep up,bleeding cash, to the tune of $1.5 million each day. A trip last November to meet with White House officials for $5 billion in help did not materialize.

Federal help to migrants is currently limited to three methods: the Temporary Protective Status, governed by The US Secretary of the Dept. of Homeland Security for those people unable to return to their homes, and offers temporary work permits for Venezuelans, and others in the country arriving before July 31, 2023. Asylum seekers can seek work permits after 150 days of residence

Then there is Asylum, for those fleeing their home countries to evade persecution due to “race, religion, political opinion or other factors,” reported Crain’s Chicago Business.. 

The third is Parole, (separate from the criminal system) which the government grants to those people to determine admittance for humanitarian benefits, making them eligible for work permits. But, all three of these three routes are overburdened by administrative and technical challenges with the software used to access the program.

What remains is inadequate and the Republican dominated U.S. House of Representatives is reluctant to take a much needed legislative effort for fear of giving support to the Biden reelection campaign, but as we have noted before in 1965 the Immigration and Nationality Act favored skilled immigrants and family reunification rather than a country quota, and in 1986, the Immigration Reform and Control Act legalized “millions of unauthorized immigrants, mainly from Latin America, who met certain conditions.”

Since that time Congress has failed to pass comprehensive immigration law and new rules for asylum seekers, bringing us to this current juncture.

Chicago news stories of immigrant mothers reusing diapers, being served bad food, and suffering abusive staff has not helped Johnson’s efforts, especially since many from the city's traditional white ethnic communities did not want another Black mayor after the defeated, and much maligned, Lori Lightfoot.

Backlash from advocates for the homeless community has also been strident as have those from some members of the local Latino leadership, and individuals who protest that some of the recent arrivals are getting work permits, while undocumented residents have labored in the shadows, being taxed without representation, for years. A protest held on Saturday in the Pilsen neighborhood did just that.

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Adding further fuel to the fire are longtime Chicago Black residents, who have faced decades of racial discrimination, and feel that they are being discriminated against, and are being passed over, and many have expressed their frustration with Johnson for his help to the migrants.

As we were told some months back, falsely, by an older Black woman, “the migrants are getting $7,000 a month.” These sentiments echo much of the tensions in Chicago,and reverberating in other urban areas receiving large influxes of immigrants.

Money to help them settle in the States is a central issue, and at the end of February, Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker rolled out a proposed $52.7 billion budget, of which he has included $182 million for the new arrivals.

WTTW, Chicago’s PBS affiliate reported that, "Leaders say that amount, combined with funding from Cook County and potentially the city of Chicago, is enough to cover the crisis through the end of the calendar year”.

They also noted that “Pritzker used amplified rhetoric to make his case for the funding, chastising Illinois’ three Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives for recently voting down a federal immigration overhaul “because Donald Trump told them to, and they’re afraid of him.” Pritzker also reprimanded Texas Gov. Greg Abbot for transporting nearly 36,000 asylum seekers to Chicago.

“Children, pregnant women and the elderly have been sent here in the dead of night, left far from our designated welcome centers, in freezing temperatures, wearing flip flops and T-shirts. Think about that the next time a politician from Texas wants to lecture you about being a good Christian,” Pritzker said to loud applause from Democratic lawmakers. “Listen, maybe some of you think we should just say, ‘This is not our problem,’ and that we should let the migrant families starve or freeze to death. But that’s not what decent Midwesterners do. That’s not what leaders do. We didn’t ask for this manufactured crisis. But we must deal with it all the same.”

“However, Democratic reluctance has so far kept the General Assembly from approving the $160 million Pritzker diverted from this year’s budget in November to spend on the migrant response. It’s expected he’ll have to negotiate to get members of his party on board with the additional $182 million, given that members of the minority party are openly hostile to the idea.”

Meanwhile in Denver local and state budgets are being stretched to the limits to provide basic humanitarian need after spending $60 million, and Mayor Mike Johnston has said while the early morning arrivals of people dressed in shorts and sandals left homeless on the streets is not a sight he wants to see, told USA TODAY, “we don’t want that to happen but we also know that we can’t provide an infinite amount of services. We’re having to pull back the amount of services we can provide, the number of people we can serve, and figure out how to balance the budget to get there.”

Strong gains continue with February Jobs Report

Once again the February Jobs Report released on Friday by the US Labor Dept. showed a strong, and dare we say it once more, resilient job market for the world’s largest economy, at 275,000 jobs created, close to the 200,000 number for private employers released on Thursday.

It’s no one’s guess when interest rates will decrease and Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, as we have noted previously, is data driven and will not recommend that the Bank cut interest rates based on a few months of strong numbers. At the next meeting on March 19 to 20, most investors expect rates to remain the same, but some are hoping in June for a decrease.

“We’re waiting to become more confident that inflation is moving sustainably to 2 percent,” Mr. Powell told Congressional lawmakers on Thursday. “When we do get that confidence, and we’re not far from it, it will be appropriate to dial back the level of restriction.”

The Chair also said,”The economy is growing at a healthy, sustainable, solid, strong pace,” Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said during a Thursday hearing of the Senate Banking Committee.

“We’re doing the best of anybody. We’ve got the strongest growth and the lowest inflation of the advanced economies,” he added..

That of course, is praise, but it also sends a note that cutting rates at this juncture could prove disastrous in overheating an already hot economy, currently the rate is 5.50 percent, and even a cut to 5.25 percent would prove unwise.

This is also the third straight month of job gains above 200,000, and Americans can look in the rear view mirror and see those depressing figures of the Covid pandemic that resulted in so many layoffs.

There was a slight uptick in the unemployment rate from 3.7 to 3.9 percent, but with monthly fluctuations being normal, the overall picture is still rosy, made even rosier that unemployment is under 4 percent for the 25th consecutive month.

Average hourly earnings increased to 4.3 percent, “We’ve recently seen gains in real wages, and that’s encouraged people to re-enter the labor market, and that’s a good development for workers,” said Kory Kantenga, a senior economist at the job search website LinkedIn, to The New York Times, and “As wage growth slows, he said, the likelihood that more people will start looking for work falls.”

Significantly, the labor force participation rate, or LFP, for those of prime working age, 25 to 54 has increased to 83.5 showing that many workers who were on the sidelines, have returned, and some, with continuing inflation returned to work, even part time; but, this could be higher if the United States offered subsidized child care. That being said, more flexible work schedules, increased wages and benefits are retaining a core of employees.

The pool of workers also increased with the immigrants that have been allowed to work, and those preceding them, from countries other than Venezuela, peaking between 120,000 and 200,000. Should Congress pass a comprehensive immigration bill reforming what was passed in the middle 1980s, that number could increase, especially for the unskilled labor force.

Taking a more comprehensive look at the household survey, or known in economic jargon as the U6, those not working, compared to those who are, is at 7.3 percent, a closely watched figure by some, but is often overshadowed by the banner, or marquee employment rate, is frequently cited, by the media, as well as by government officials.

Who were the stars in this report? Education and Health at 85,000 followed by Leisure and Hospitality at 58,000, and then Government employment at 52,000, with the continued growth of Construction, that had decreased hiring in the past, but now reflects the11th straight month, coming in at a strong 23,000.

Anirban Basu, the chief economist for the Association of Builders and Contractors told Engineering News Record that this was despite the “high project financing costs” and “elevated construction service delivery costs and lingering recessionary fears.”

Despite some concerns among economists, most agree that this is a strong report, and bodes well for the economy despite public concerns that the economy is in trouble, but this is based, as we noted last month, on the high cost of housing, and food prices, but nevertheless it will be an issue in the November presidential election.

For President Biden: How old is too old?

In the first 6 weeks of the new year, and with the ever increasing presidential election of 2024, one of the most overheated of political rhetoric has been the age of President Biden, and despite assurances from Democratic stalwarts who have dismissed this as unwarranted  political warfare, it has garnered headlines; and, then Republican presidential hopeful former governor of South Carolina, Nikki Haley, taking potshots at rival Donald Trump for confusing her with Nancy Pelosi, the former speaker of the House of Representatives, stating that if you asked any doctor they will tell you of the mental decline of those in their late 70s and 80s, a de facto acknowledgment of the ages of Trump and Biden, the former 77 years and the latter 81.

The clincher came last week when Special Counsel Robert Hur charged with investigating whether Biden would face criminal malfeasance for holding confidential papers from his days as vice president labeled him, our words, as a nice old man whole memory was so faulty he could not remember when his son Beau died.

It can be easily stated that this was not Biden’s week, and the claim that he could not remember his son’s death from brain cancer in 2015 seemed a low blow and caused a great deal of personal grief as he stated in the aftermath when according to the Associated Press, “And in response to Hur’s portrayal of him, Biden insisted to reporters that “My memory is fine,” and said he believes he remains the most qualified person to serve as president.

“How in the hell dare he raise that?” Biden asked about Hur’s comments regarding his son’s death, saying he didn’t believe it was any of Hur’s business.”

While Haley’s remarks, Hur’s opinion, and a slew of media coverage including the ribald, and often off color jokes that we have heard at bus stops, and in shops, gave us pause to examine outside of the rhetoric, the name calling, and the GOP baits: how old is too old, not only for the nation’s chief executive, but also in society in general, and in a society where men and women in their 70s and 80s are leading productive lives, and often working full time.

We also have often seen 90 year old's  described as the “new 40”. It was at this point we decided that there needed to be a closer examination of  age as a factor across the lifespan, especially in memory and intelligence; so this dictated a look towards the academy for a closer, more nuanced review, and away from political partisanship.

The basic questions remain: How controversial is age in the lives of 21st century people? How old is too old? Is cognitive decline inevitable?

A review of the psychological literature is revealing, and also moves beyond popular beliefs and even that of personal experience.

Let’s tackle some of the widely held beliefs, and yes, in early adulthood there is a peak,”for some types of learning and remembering” noted one psychology text, and research does show that as adults, younger people do have better recall said psychologists Donald Schonfeild and Bettty Anne Richards in a 1966 experiment.

Drilling down even further, within and without are not merely words, and psychological research has shown that there are minimal declines and greater decline, but it’s also important to realize that while recall can suffer, it’s not always age related, or even an interference in daily life, and with later experimental replications in 1990, it also seems that there are important distinctions in such variables as age, rural or urban home life; but, one conclusion stands out: older adults often have a rich storehouse of experiences to draw upon to examine, and weigh information, giving them a higher level of information processing that a comparatively younger person might not. 

Taking a brief detour from academic studies, and returning to the political arena, an older age political leader may have a distinct advantage over a younger one, temperament aside; so, if voters are taking an age stance in favor of someone say, two decades younger, then they may have to rethink that widely held belief.

Research has also shown that in some experiments 70 year old's can outdo 20 year old's, and perhaps lying outside that range, it might include people in their 50s.

It’s also been established in lab experiments that when attempting to recall faces while simultaneously performing another task, younger people can exhibit the same limitations in the standard identification of the prefrontal cortex (the area responsible for executive function and memory) of the brain as older adults noted Thomas H. Hess in a journal article, “Memory and Aging in  Contest,” in 2005.

Goal setting has also been established as a notable factor in retention, and “individuals are more likely to expend effort in expanding tasks that are persistent with personal goals.” 

The larger view is that while we “cannot generalize that older adults are more or less intellectually competent, we can’t say that they are more of less productive at work,” noted one psychology textbook, in a conclusion by Gibbon McEvoy and Wayne Casico in 1980, using a study of 40,000 subjects (workers) in 96 studies, with the text noting, “Apart from the inexperience of very young employees, age does not predict job performance.”

January Jobs Report hits a milestone

Another blockbuster report from the US Dept of Labor was released on Friday with the monthly Jobs Report, this time with an eye popping 350,000 nonfarm jobs, far exceeding the expectations of most economists who were predicting 185,000 and an unemployment rate of 3.8, instead of 3.7 percent.

The fact the high numbers were spread across the board, in nearly all job categories made for another banner report and showed, as previously reported, that the US economy has regained nearly all the jobs lost with the pandemic, after a nearly 14 percent loss in employment since in those early days.

The news was not so good that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates, as Chair Jerome Powell has indicated after the recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting, but his caution is legendary as a data driven leader; but, some, including him, are hoping that will change in May, while others are not so sure.

He has said, “I don’t think it’s likely that the committee will reach a level of confidence by the time of the March meeting.”

Standouts for January were professional and business services, a rather catch all term, say some, for a clutch of businesses, tech excepted, leading at 74,000, followed by health care at 70,000, which as we’ve seen has rapidly caught up with the pandemic losses.

The figure that was most watched, especially by Powell, was the wage increase of 0.6 percent, reaching a figure of 4.6 percent, that The New York TImes in their report, attributed to the plethora of white collar jobs, and their higher salaries.

Retail after some conservative holiday hiring was flat at 45,200.

“I think everyone is surprised at the strength,” said Sara Rutledge, an independent economics consultant. “It’s almost like a ‘pinch me’ scenario,” to the Times.

For President Biden who has faced criticism on inflation figures, despite a sizeable decrease, down to 3.1 percent in November, but now faces an increase in 3.4 percent, mostly attributable to increasing housing costs, this is not welcome news; but, the huge increase in employment is bound to be a boon to his reelection effort.

The low unemployment rate of 3.7 is notable, and “The fact that that’s been below 4 percent for two years running now is just a very clear and reliable signal that this is not just a tight labor market, but a reliably and persistently tight labor market,” said Jared Bernstein, chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers.

“America’s economy is the strongest in the world. Today, we saw more proof,” said Biden in a statement.

Perhaps too strong? 

“There is simply no way that 350,000 job gains in a month is consistent with a further cooling of the labor market. This elevates the risk that nominal wage growth will not fall back to levels consistent with reaching the inflation target on a sustained basis, particularly as the labor force participation rate refuses to rise any further,” Brian Coulton, Fitch Ratings economist, wrote in a Friday commentary, as reported by The Hill.

Wages increased by 0.8 percent to $34.55, :doubling the monthly pace of headline inflation in December.” But, that does exceed the  stated goals of 3.5 percent growth to hit the Fed’s 2 percent inflation target.

In the area of consumer confidence, whose dollars drive the US economy, perception, as the old adage states, is one tenth of the law, and that confidence has grown according to the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index,as high and this softening is real, according to Consumers Director, Joanne Hsu who wrote, “Consumer sentiment confirmed its early-month reading, surging 13% to reach its highest level since July 2021, reflecting improvements in the outlook for both inflation and personal incomes.”

Still some Americans are complaining about high costs, much of which may be attributed to the lingering effects of supply shortages, but as stated before, most of the pinch is felt in housing, especially in urban coastal areas. And, in contrast, polls show that, “Just 28 percent of Americans rated the economy as excellent or good, according to a Pew Research consumer survey of 5,140 adults from January 16th to the 21st, released Sunday,” according to The Hill.

Tacking high employment with increasing wages may be a delight to politicians, consumers, and some economists, but the delicate balancing act for the Federal Reserve is not over yet.