It's all in the mix for the May Jobs report

If all things were predictable there would be no need for last Friday’s Jobs Report from the US Department of Labor, but that clearly showed that despite expectations that there would be less jobs, in fact there were more, much more, 339,000 to be exact and that has given the White House joy, but more sleepless nights for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, as he wrestles with inflationary prices and employers that just keep on hiring.

Some salve to his battered nerves may be that unemployment has hit 3.7 percent the highest since October, showing that there is some slowdown in hiring, but is it enough? That might not be since adults at prime working age have barely changed over the last quarter.

Saying that the job market is tight is an understatement, saying that it is hot is closer to the truth, and employers are also being cautious, no major layoffs, and letting attrition reduce their workforce instead.

The Feds have raised interest rates for more than a year to cool the labor market and control prices, but we aren’t there yet; also, despite the Cassandras that have predicted an inevitable recession for the last several months, that seems to be in abeyance, though predictions of any accuracy are hard to state, at least with conviction.

The happy camper amidst all of the hand wringing is President Joe Biden, who in a statement issued from the White House, said: “Today is a good day for the America and American workers.”

It also serves to bolster his chances in the 2024 presidential election, as economic concerns are always at the core of many the average voter, despite a general misbelief that American presidents control the economy, and that the Federal Reserve Bank is a private bank.

There is sustained growth in education and health care, to the tune of 87,000 jobs; business services at 64,000 (though we find the term vague); government, including state and local at 56,000; and still growing is leisure and hospitality at 48,000, as Americans in the post Covid period have increased travel and dining out, leading us to wonder how many Covid era bread machines, pasta makers and espresso makers will gather dust in the nation’s cupboards.

For those that are the money folks, the good news is that accounting and bookkeeping have shot up to 64,000, and the outlier is construction at an increase of 25,000, somewhat of a surprise, because as The New York Times noted, “is sensitive to rising interest rates.”

They also reported that Tom Gimbel, founder and chief executive of LaSalle Network, a staffing and recruiting firm, saying, the “consensus seems to be . . . that the economy could continue to be strong for the next 24 to 30 months.”

That old bugaboo, labor force participation is little changed at 62.6 percent, and those prime earners don’t seem eager to look for work. Part of the reason, of course, is that as some edge closer to retirement age the pull for the daily grind is not as strong as it used to be,

It’s important to note that these reports are taken in the first two weeks of each month, and are subject to revision, and we have seen both March and April figures revised to 93,000.

Bad news for Black workers, still occupying most of the service jobs in the country, have an increased unemployment figure of 5.6 for May, countering the previous month’s decline, which we felt, in the final analysis, might be illusory.,

Overall, as in previous months  this report presents a mixed bag for even the most sanguine observer, and despite the weak points shows a sustained patterns, but to lowball it might be a mistake, and there are those low wage earners who see that  inflation can eat away at their wages, and some are predicting a decrease in wages that would cause some pain.

Wages were 0.3 percent last month, showing a slowdown from April, and this is an area that will be closely watched by Powell and the Federal Reserve.

DeSantis: The man, the myth, the candidate?

After much anticipation and credible hints, Gov. Ron De Santis of Florida announced his candidacy for the 2024 US presidential election last week, and despite some technical difficulties with the announcement on Twitter, hosted by supporter and ally owner Elon Musk, for some it seemed, but to his many supporters it was the herald of a new day,

To those who are opposed to him, often vehemently, it seemed akin to the devil appearing on social media. Somewhere between the unbridled praise and the hatred, there exists a middle ground, and to that there seems to be doubts if he would win the Republican nomination in a party that seems to be locked down by former President Donald Trump; and, who despite legal action for financial misdeeds, and a sexual assault conviction, he has legions of supporters.

This is the question that hangs in the balance: will the former president be able to maintain his lock on the party, or will it push him aside? In the absence of a crystal ball, we have the polls which show him with a resounding lead.

Then again, there are the “never Trumpers'' in a distant third, and unafraid to say they do not want him on the ticket, but as we all know as political pundits, this is a numbers game, and when the numbers are not there, the nomination is absent, or even once accepted, if so, on the ticket can voters keep a candidate there? We saw the fall with Hillary Clinton in 2016, on election night as the numbers fell, and fell downward.

We noted earlier that for many months DeSantis was at the top of the game of political expediency, taking every issue dear to his base to the 10th power. Anti Gay legislation, check; Anti Trans rights, check; anti drag shows, check; no library storytime at the public library gone; book banning, check, and the list grows on till the very public and nasty fight with Disney over its support of gay rights.

Then the standard issue rightist policy, guns allowed with no checks and regulation, and all seemed well, until his collaborating with Texas governor, Gregg Abbot, to ship migrants to the liberal stronghold and vacation of wealthy Democrats and liberals, Martha's Vineyard, but that barely seemed to make a dent, despite all of the moral censures and the dupe perpetuated by rogue agents to lure these vulnerable people to fate.

That seemed to have no effect.

The Hill reported last week of a recent poll from the University of California Berkeley's Institute of Government studies that said, “44 percent of the Golden States likely GOP primary voters said they supported Trump, while 26 percent said they supported De Santis, an 18 point lead for the former president.”

This was contrasted with three months prior when the former president “trailed De Santis by 8 points with 37 percent supporting De Santis.”

Of course, there are other GOP candidates, former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, who was also the UN Ambassador from the US, under Trump; former New Jersey governor, Chris Christie who seems untainted by Bridgegate; and Mike Pence, Trump’s vice president, expected to soon join the bandwagon this week, but with single digit polling, many are wondering what his chance of getting the nomination away from Trump, his former boss seem slim to none.

This may seem crowded to the uninitiated, but is actually quite normal in modern day presidential elections till they drop out, or get dropped, by events like the Iowa caucus, that defeated Clinton, and raised the profile of Barack Obama.

California, as The Hill noted, in recent reportage, has a plethora of “never Trumpers”, but noted that “his presence looks large with Republican voters feeling he is being treated unfairly in the courts and public opinion.”

Identifying who would support DeSantis was partly the task of the latest poll showing that they are largely men without college degrees, aged 50 to 64 years old, but there is some pushback by many who say that DeSantis is not charismatic, if that is a factor in the minds of voters.

Trump, on the other hands, whether admired or derided does have a strong charisma, or a brand, that is wholly his own as he gives a litany of those he ridicules, not just Democrats, not just liberals, but those he claims are not really Republican, ironic since he once was far more liberal on domestic issues, as he developed his real estate empire in New York City.

This has proved so strong that “66 percent discredited the results of the verdict,” in the trial of E. Jean Carroll in her sexuaL abuse case, and thought that it was motivated by political revenge.

Earlier polls even “showed that nearly half (45 percent) of GOP voters believed that Trump is ‘definitely’ the better Republican candidate to beat President Joe Biden next year.”

In an interview with Newsweek Patrick Murray, of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, said, "DeSantis lost ground before he even got out of the starting gate.”

April Jobs report exceeds expectations

Last week’s Jobs Report from the US Dept of Labor, for April, hit the surprise button on the expected numbers, economists expected 18,000 nonfarm jobs, but instead got a whopping 253,000, a figure that severely affects the US Federal Reserve’s attempts to tame inflation, and build upon the March Report that showed their previous efforts of lessening inflation that reflected a lessening, no matter how slight, of American employment, and what further measures could be taken to reduce the numbers further.

What the Fed did at their meeting in the first week of May was to increase the interest rate by another quarter point, dashing hopes that they would be able to hold off for a bit. No longer true, these high numbers also mean no recession, despite some soothsayers that say it is coming, almost shadowing the economic grim reaper.

The fear, as we have already seen, is that further cuts can become too much of a job killer and not only cost American jobs, but hurt America’s neediest families, a fear that Sen. Elizabeth Warren, the Massachuttes Democratic who has sounded alarms since the first increase.

March also showed that US employers are still trying to reach the brassring for the right type of employees to meet their specific needs, and more and more, or so it seems.

Mark Hamrick, senior economist analyst at Bankrate,said in a note, according to The HIll that, “once again, the job market has turned heads with its resilience.”

A bright spot is that the increase has shown in health care, education, and most notably leisure and travel industries, with an increase in legal immigration, to support the latter, in fact that has often been a stepping stone for recent immigrants to the US.

For Black Americans there is a record low, for March in the drop of unemployment to 4.7 percent, and shows a recovery from May of two years ago, when it was 16.8 percent, but community leaders are cautiously optimistic, concerned that these are mainly low paying service jobs.

With inflation still high, it may take one person working two jobs to support a family, and pay rent, especially with the nation’s lack of affordable housing, which has also hit middle income white families.

Consumer spending, the driver of the American economy, has dipped, but as Fed Chair, Jerome Powell stated to reporters there are still  cautionary fears of a recession, and he said, ”but, I don’t rule that out either. It’s possible that we have a mild recession.”

If that sounds like what he and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen called a “soft recession” a year ago, that fear, no matter how it’s labeled, is still around.

For the banner rate of unemployment, we are seeing 3.4 percent, down from 3.5 percent in March, and as The New York Times noted, it “matched the level in January which was the lowest since 1969.”

Employer response may be focused, in part, say some, to reverse the earlier massive layoffs in the early days of the Covid pandemic.

Wage gains increased to 0.5 percent, statistically significant, but also increased to 4.4 percent over the last year.

A revision, fairly standard due to mid month reporting, to the earlier two months, created a net effect of 149,00 jobs combined; creating a three month average to 222,000 jobs, “a slowdown from the 400,00 added in August 2022,” added the Times.

Mach was revised downwards from 236,000 to 165,000, and February from 326,000 to 248.000.

What could create a wreck of the US economy is that the Republicans won’t negotiate on raising the debt ceiling, without cuts, especially to the so called entitlement programs, such a Social Security benefits, and Medicare and Medicaid, which would send millions of people into near poverty, upset the markets, especially Treasury notes, and have a deleterious global effect, and the words of “the full faith and credit of the United States,” would become meaningless.

Abortion is the issue for GOP, or is it?

The recent court ruling against the medication abortion drug mifepristone has created a firestorm of protest among the drug’s manufacturer and women across the nation, as this unprecedented ruling from the judicial bench on a two-decade old approval from the US Federal Drug  Administration seems to be the latest attack after the Dobbs decision that vacated the right to abortion enshrined in the decades old decision of Roe v. Wade.

Moral implications aside, this latest move is still part and parcel of the burgeoning culture wars between the ultra conservative right and the liberal progressive wing in American political life, but supporting abortion in political life goes much deeper for the Republican party, as it attempts to woo and sustain votes, especially in the upcoming 2024 presidential election.

The widespread coverage in the media has sparked debates, and legal maneuvers, that give a sustained voice to the issue, yet the depth of concern, supported by supporters of former President Donald Trump, is not the lone voice, as April’s 6-week abortion ban supported by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis gives it a further push. 

Or, does it? 

Abortion rights has the support of both President Biden, and the Democratic Party, and they have campaigned on this issue as have other lawmakers across the country, and even some ardent supporters of Trump, having been defeated, want to back away from it, fearing that the GOP might lose another presidential race.

One issue that has the support of many, on both the extreme right and the middle right, are anti-trans bills, whether to ban gender affirming care, for those under 18, or banning transgender boys and girls from playing school athletics with the gender they identify and the issue is red hot and will only increase over time as a winnable issue for both the White House, and statehouse races.

Running almost parallel to the supposed teaching of Critical Race Theory in elementary and high schools, the two are hoped to secure a stronger base of support for the right, and also to try and regain the support of suburban women who left them over abortion access.

Reaching back into the past, especially the tumultuous 1960s, the area of gender rights and human sexuality has run the gamut from the advent of the Pill, and then Women's Lib and Gay Liberation, which seem like a quaint relic of the past, along with miniskirts and bell bottoms.

America’s near obsession with gender, and by extension sexuality, is an issue that can wax, and wane, and even withsame-sex marriage.  A 2022 poll by the Public Religion Research Institute, (non-partisan) showed that “68 percent of respondents favored allowing same-sex couples to marry, including 49 percent of Republicans,” according to The New York Times.

The Times also reported that the same-sex ruling by the Supreme Court was a low point for those social conservatives and mourned the loss of fundraising dollars, and they quoted Terry Schilling, the president of American Principles Project, who said, “we knew we needed to find an issue that the candidates were comfortable talking about,” and that issue is the burgeoning area of transgender rights , and the rise of young people identifying as trans.

There are now 20 Republican led states that have gone down the path of bathroom access, medically affirming treatments, and the aforementioned athletic participation.

The historic lead was the 2021 success of a veto override by the Republican led Arkansas legislature successfully banning “transition medication or surgery.”

Next up was DeSantis who signed a bill preventing transgender girls from playing K-12 sports,” but recognized a move to shore up his presidential aspirations.

Thursday the US House of Representatives passed a vote banning transgender girls from school sports. The vote passed strictly on partisan lines, and would change the definition of sex to be based “solely on a person’s genetics at birth,” reported The Washington Post, with its target on transgendered women and girls, and a recent poll conducted by the Post and The University of Maryland found a majority of Americans “opposed in high school, college, or professional women’s sports.”

All of this considered, and circling back to abortion, can anyone say that it’s a dead issue for the GOP? Not with uncertainty say most observers of Capitol Hill, and the Supreme Court, and certainly Judge Matthew J. Kacsmaryk, US District Attorney of North Texas, who brought the suit on behalf of the plaintiffs, that argues that there are dangerous side effects to the drug, is an ardent foe of abortion rights.

Also on the agenda is the ant-science stance that the judge’s injunction and statements that there are effects of the drug, despite rigorous study by the FDA, and it’s not hard to see that by extension this could further amplify the anti-vax community who now have a prominent advocate running for the presidency in the person of Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. and some are even suggesting that he might be a vice- presidential candidate for Trump in 2024.

Dr. Jeremy Levin, chief executive of Ovid Therapeutics told the Times that the Texas lawsuit could not only eat away at the authority of the FDA, it, “much more importantly, it opens it up to a political determination of what a medicine is or isn’t and that is deeply horrific for vaccines, Alzheimer drugs, all the others.”

If successful, what would this lawsuit, on its way to the US Supreme Court, with a stay ending on Friday at midnight, do for a vaccine for the next epidemic?

March Jobs, CPI, and a mixed bag

The March Jobs Report issued by the US Labor Dept, last Friday didn’t deliver quite the eggs needed for a sunny economic Easter, but it did offer some rays of hope for both the Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell and President Biden, especially as he is expected to soon announce his reelection campaign.

While jobs in the nation are plentiful, for those that want them, employers have slowed the pace of hiring from the earlier frenzied search, and the plentiful benefits of hiring bonuses, and PTO have tapered off, despite a slight downturn in the unemployment rate, and there are more people returning to work, from the sidelines, than previously seen.

Of course, the elephant in the room is inflation, and the decrease in hiring, no matter how small offers a light at the end of the tunnel for Powell, but not enough to not consider raising the interest rate again, in May; which the odds among economists for another quarter point increase is 67 percent favoring.

Still there are those that are optimistic, and one might be Michael Pugliese an economist at Wells Fargo, who told The New York Times, “I think it’s very clear interest rates are starting to play a role . . . Some of it is just normalizing. You’re obviously not going to be able to sustain the job growth we’ve seen over the past year or two indefinitely.”

The numbers: 236,000 nonfarm jobs were created in March, and the unemployment rate decreased to 3.5 percent, but there was a mixed bag in the following areas: transportation and warehousing, was little changed at 10,000, but warehousing and storage decreased by 12,000; retail, where little had changed, there was a slight decrease of 15,000.

With those numbers the mixed side, there was an increase of prime working age workers, those aged 25 to 54 years old, at 83.1 percent, but some economists debate the significance.

President Biden said, when the report was released, “This is a good jobs report for hard working Americans,” but he added, “there is still more work to do '' to reduce prices that have hit the wallets of many Americans.

Chicago based Challenger, Christmas and Gray reported that there were 89,703 job cuts in March, with 15 percent in February. But the most layoffs are in the tech sector, totaling 168,243, and according to techcrunch.com, Meta, the parent company of Google, laid off 10,000 with another 5,000 open slots canceled; and Microsoft with 10,000 laid off, in a team that was dedicated to AI (artificial intelligence) work.

Adding to this turmoil, Indeed laid off 15 percent of its tech workers, at 2,200, and Accenture 19,000, or 2.5 percent of its workforce.

On the brighter side, job gains included leisure and travel at 72,000, education and health at 65,000, and government workers at 42,000.

Coming from the sidelines, perhaps because of inflation, was a slight bump, not statistically significant, in labor force participation, from previous months, now at  62.6 percent contrasted with 62.5 in February.

Good news is that the employment rate for Black Americans has hit a record low of 5 percent. And, while much of that, and other figures, might be limited by future lower wage growth, which reached a high of over 3.2 percent between January and March, but averaged 4.2 over the last 12 months, (in March average hourly earnings were greater than 0.3 percent), but this still brings good news to those, ”last hired, first fired.”

All eyes turned on Wednesday to the Consumer Price Index, (which measures the prices that consumers pay for goods, and services), to give more detail on another major rising cost, shelter, making many Americans worry about how to house themselves, affordably. And, what we saw was that housing costs increased, despite an offset at the gas pump.

Stripping out the volatile cost of food and energy, the CPI rose to 0.4 percent, and just behind shelter was insurance, 1.2 percent increase,airline fares at 4.0 percent, household furnishings and new vehicles.

Taking a birdseye view the report showed an all time rate of 5.6 percent, year over year with the month of March, without food and energy.

The takeaway is that this report showed the rise in consumer prices was at its slowest since May of 2021, with inflation increasing by 0.1 percent over the last month, and 5.0 percent over last March.

Many economists had predicted 0.2 percent, and the reduction was seen as a sign of progress in the fight against inflation, even with the 5.0 percent increase in housing, and this pause, as some are calling it, is an indicator, along with the March jobs report for the upcoming Fed’s monetary policy moves.

Ending the economic news last week, there is is still the specter of recession for some bankers,and even consumers, and as we have noted before, some seem to gain satisfaction that it will happen, and in a recent Fortune commentary, Murray Sabrin said that it was inevitable, and citing as an indicator, the inverted yield curve, the bane of undergraduate economics, and its focus on “the difference between the 10 year Treasury note and the three month T Bill.”

While not always a perfect indicator, Sabrin seems focused on it, while admitting some curveballs in previous years, (in 1998) when the expected “short term rates rise above the long term rate a recession begins about a year later.”

Tech layoffs may be the tipping point in his prediction, but no one has a crystal ball to state when it can happen. Or, as a saying goes, “it ain’t over, till it's over.”

February Jobs Report is a mixed blessing

Friday’s Jobs Report for February released by the US Labor Dept. gave a mix of numbers, some redolent fears of recession, and an edginess about inflation still haunting the nation's economy. 

The good news, for some, was that the US still has a healthy job market with the results of 311,000 non farm jobs, when it was expected that there would be 225,000; but somewhat encouraging was that wages only increased by 0.2 percent, with an average of only 3.6 percent over the last three months,encouraging news that the Federal Reserve’s efforts of taming inflation with increased rate hikes is working.

Those numbers are still higher than what the Fed would like to see as it balances its inflation toolbox to lessen the numbers and increase the unemployment rate, to lower prices. But, on  the consumer side, there are fears that taking this robust market in hand could easily lead to a job change to get higher earnings to meet inflationary prices, especially at the supermarket.

When Jerome Powell, president of the Fed appeared on Capitol Hill this past week he told lawmakers that, “we have covered a lot of ground and the full efforts of our tightening so far are yet to be fruitful,” and added that there is still much work to do battling inflation.

Meeting those remarks was Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, who at their meeting at the Senate Banking Committee replied by stating, “Once the economy starts shedding jobs, it’s kind of like an empty runaway train. It’s really hard to stop.”

Those fears are justified, but on the employer side there is a reluctance to cut jobs since consumer confidence has transitioned from the pandemic driven goods, enjoyed at home, to services such as travel and dining out, with a corresponding increase in leisure and hospitality to 105,000 jobs.

On the other hand they are not afraid to deplete their once bloated inventories and the truckers that delivered them, and in February, those jobs were decreased to 22,000; and, on the tail end the information tech people, needed to manage the flow of commerce, was cut to 25,000, leaving many to wonder what the future will hold.

Added to the conundrum is that there are approximately two jobs available for every job seeker, and this has nudged the dial for some to seek employment, or maybe come back from the ranks of the retired, and that number increased to 419,000 with a labor force participation rate of 62.5 from January’s figure of 62.4.

The New York TImes reported that there was an 83.1 increase in the working population aged 25 to 54, prime working years, but again, as employers try to find the right mix of stay, or leave on the balance sheets, those jobs might be risky as Powell increases the rates, from its current baseline of 5.1 percent.

All eyes are on the upcoming CPI report,to be released on Tuesday, and this closely watched inflationary can show the road ahead; but couple that with the next Open Market meeting of the Feds on March 21st and 22nd, might be a nail biter for many.

A fly in the ointment, for some, is that profits have ballooned, up 17 cents on the dollar from a previous figure of 12 cents in the last decade, despite creating concern in some areas, it does allow for greater job security, at least for now.

January Jobs report hits the moon with huge numbers

Shock and awe was the reaction to Friday’s jobs report for January from the US Department of Labor as the news of 517,000 non farm jobs spread across the media, and jaws dropped from the halls of academia to the mythical Main Street, as they tried to absorb the huge number, when only, at best 182,000 were expected, accompanied by a 3.4 unemployment rate, one not seen since 1969.

President Biden was ecstatic saying that his brand worked, and worked well, and gave a smidgen of the joy he will give in his State of the Union address on Feb. 7. This follows on the heels of many legislative sucesses in recent weeks, and will no doubt be a part of his announcement of his relection campaign.

As he stated, “I’m happy to report that the state of the union and the state of the economy is strong.”

There was however some wailing and nashing of teeth in the marbled corridors of the Federal Reserve building, where Chairman Jerome Powell, already struggling to battle inflation through a series of rate hikes, will see that the road is still uphill in efforts to tame prices, despite a glimmer of light with lower automobile prices, and gasoline.

Despite more jobs for Americans, and wages, there was a slight drop in consumer spending, with a transtion from spending on goods to services, as they tired of bread making machines at home, in favor of dining out, even beyond their geographic locals. But, for Powell this is not enough and the recent rate hike of a quarter of a percentage point to a target range of 4.5%, 4.75% may have further affect.

The nations employers in some areas have tried to mitigate any looming layoffs, and balance sheet deficits, by trimming benefits, as they also trimmed qualifications in some open slots to attract workers; and, that seems to be working, but only time can tell.

Powell did note that his efforts at “disinflation that we have seen so far has not come at the expense of a weaker labor market.”

When postioned against layoffs in the tech, finance, housing and media sectors Friday’s huge numbers seem to have unerved some economists, in this tight labor market. And, some including Lael Brainard, Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve, noted recently, that the calibrating efforts we’ve discussed in prior months, could swing too far, and a time lag may not show the consequnces of being too aggresive, till too late.

Ergo last week’s small increase from the Feds, the smallest in eleven months. Let caution be the path ahead, say many economists, versus the hole plugging that was seen last year.

What has hardly changed, ironically, is the rate of labor force particiaption, which has barely budged, and is currently at 62.4, showing the increasing willngness for many baby boomers to remain retired, not even transitoning to become Walmart greeters, wielding a yellow marker for customer reciepts.

For women there are still issues of child care, and in two person households, sacrifice may be the watchword. In the absence of government funded child care, this is a reality that must be embraced.

Nevertheless the US economy grew at 2.1 percent by the end of last year, and nearly all jobs lost to the Covid pandemic have been restored.

Of course, no picture of the nation’s economy would be complete without a discussion of wages, and that shows a moderation of 0.3 percent from December of 2022, and 4.4 percent over the course of 2022.

Taking a look at that growth, broadly speaking we can see 128,000 in leisure and hospitality, including bars and restaurants, with demands for meals and drinks have begun to return to normal pattern, as well as air travel, despite recent snafus with Southwestern Airlines and stranded passengers.

Local government employmnt, also improved, especailly on the state level as seen with the end of striking employees at the University of California schools.

Temporary workers got more assignments and their ranks swelled to 26,000.

Black employment steadied at 5.4 percent with a bump from Black women, but the gains were relative to the higher unemployment in that group, and taking a glance at the end of 2022, there was an increase among Black men of 5.3 percent, with women it was a decrease of 4.7 percent.

There has also been a seesaw efect with a decrease of 5.5 percent in Spetember of 2019, and in November of 101`, thee was a decrease for Black women of 5 percent, and now while there is praise for improvement, Black employment, overall, is higher when compared to whites, Asians and Hispanics.

Kate Bahn, director of labor market policy and chief econmist at the Washington Center of equitable Growth told CNBC that “Sometimes when folks see improvement, they see it as positve, but the disparities  are stil there.

Let’s take a closer look at the elephant in the room, inflation, as fears continue, despite the absence of a recession, which many curiously want to see; but, as we see that some price increases were temporay, and that the effects of supply chain weakness has abated, along with the early energy and gas increases that  have leveled of since the early days of the war in Ukraine. 

Implict in some of the chair’s remarks is a desire for a soft landing, that some observers rejected last year, that incudes a mild recession, but optimists such as Aaron Sojouner told NPR, “Inflation has come down but there’s not a recession.”

While there is still a hard slog ahead, we can all be thankful for that.