Biden out, Kamala Harris in

Sunday’s announcement from the White House in a letter from the White House, posted on the social media platform X from President Joe Biden that he was going to stand down from being a candidate for the presidency in the 2024 election left most people in the United States thunderstruck, especially after saying for weeks that he was going to stay, and notably at a recent rally in Detroit where there was a roaring approval from the crowd.

For many, especially his supporters in Chicago, there was a sense of disbelief and sadness, and a distinct feeling that Biden was being pushed out, especially from the donor class, led by actor George Clooney, who had been a prominent fundraiser, but also from Democratic leadership, such as former Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, and House Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, coupled with a raft of major newspapers, most notably The New York Times, who in an editorial, said that he needed to step down, due to his age, and surprisingly also a reliable supporter, The Washington Post. 

Whether it was this growing chorus, or that coffers were being closed, and depriving him of the needed money for his campaign, or advice from his family, the latter which is unknown, the decision was made after months of criticism and wariness of his age, 81, and especially of his mental acuity, after a dismal debate performance with former President Donald Trump, where suffering from a bad cold and two overseas trips, he seemingly lost his train of thought, and did not give the succinct answers his supporters expected.

It’s not necessarily a surprise to see this concern, because many people had told us of it, and added unfounded claims of senility, or Alzheimer's, the die was cast, and the pressures, in combination with the above, led to his withdrawal.

What he did next, endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic candidate was not only expected but hoped for, and the reaction among many of their leadership was a wholesale endorsement, with the notable exception of former President Barack Obama, has energized Democrats and the money has poured in, to the tune of $231 million dollars in less than a day.

Harris herself, while the obvious choice for a replacement does face considerable obstacles, number one being a woman, in a country, rare in the Western World, that has not had a female head of state, but also being a racial minority, with an Indian born mother and a Jamaican father, and who identifies as a Black American, and one who brings considerable background as an attorney general for California and also as a District Attorney, plus three and a half years as vice president.

For political baggage she has the role as intercessor for the crisis at the Southern Border, and is already being beaten about the head by Republicans, as the “Border Czar,” a false title, but nevertheless a convenient smear, since immigration is the leading issue for the GOP, and a signature part of any Trump speech, and he has been widely reported saying that immigrants are “poisoning the blood”of Americans, violent crime, false claims of illegal voting, and a host of unwarranted social ills.

In August the Democrats will hold their convention in Chicago, and at stake is an open, if not brokered convention, the former which last happened in the same city in 1968. But, as of Monday it was reported that Harris had a clear majority of delegates to clinch the nomination, and she needs 1,976 pledged delegates and she has far exceeded that number.

In a statement released from her campaign late on Monday, she said, “Tonight, I am proud to have secured broad support needed to become our party’s nominee, and as a daughter of California, I am proud that my home state’s delegation helped put our campaign over the top. I look forward to formally accepting the nomination soon.”

Obama has indicated that he wants an open primary versus a political anointing, and with the money and the endorsements pouring in might be tempting; but, since the primary votes to Biden are not automatically granted to Harris, there may be some type of political horse trading to be done.

Harris has also received a vast array of endorsements from lawmakers across the country, and all of the Democratic governors have given their support, among them, Gov. JB Pritzker of Illinois, Wes Moore, Roy Cooper, Gretchen Whitmer, and Mark Warner.

Meanwhile the Trump campaign is in seeming tatters as they based their entire campaign on fighting Biden and now have become increasingly concerned about Harris, and her roles in public service, in two prominent roles, and the vice presidency and her reputation as a prosecutor, and with sharp elbows has caused Trump to say he will not debate her in September, in what many of her supporters have told us, “would make mincemeat out of him.”

There are questions that the Republicans might mount a legal challenge to the Harris candidacy, but some legal and government voices have said that won't happen.

Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, in particular has expressed his doubts about the legality of Harris appearing on the ballot, citing state rules, and along with other GOP officials has threatened to take Democrats to court, but legal opinion says that there's no standing for that effort, and Axios quoted Ben Ginsberg, “an attorney who has long represented Republicans,” who said," There's nothing to the these threats, a convention naming a candidate who then gets ballot placement in every state is the normal course of business.”

No one candidate is the official nominee, until there is a vote, wrote legal scholar Rick Hansen in his op-ed piece for slate.com on Monday.

The most emphatic “no” was from Democratic attorney, Marc Elias who told MSNBC, “There is a zero, point, zero, zero, zero percent that Mike Johnson and his fever dream, of somehow there being legal action to prevent Kamala Harris . . . to keep [her] off the ballot, there is no chance that will happen.”

This is a developing story

Trump shooting is rooted in a violent America

 

In the aftermath of Saturday’s attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump, the wide ranging and sincere comments from lawmaker and pundits was that political violence had no place in American life, and while that may be true, to at least the acceptance of that specific event, American history is replete with political violence stretching back to the killing of Alexander Hamilton by Aaron Burr, in 1804, the caning of abolitionist Senator Charles Sumner in 1856, the shooting that felled President Garfield in 1881, Abraham Lincoln in 1865,the shooting of Theodore Roosevelt in 1912,  the assassination of of John F. Kennedy in 1963, Bobby Kennedy in 1968, the shooting of Ronald Reagan in 1981, and of Congresswoman Gabby Gifford in 2011,Congressman Steve Scalise in 2017, and the physical assault in 2022 on Paul Pelosi the husband of the then Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, but intended for her.

As a nation, America is awash in blood, but not only for politicians but also for hundreds of everyday citizens victims of domestic violence, street gangs, urban warfare, not to mention the killings at Columbine, Marjory Stoneman Doulgas High School, and Sandy Hook, and Las Vegas, and Highland Park Illinois, to name but a few of mass killings.

The image of a bloodied Trump, after a bullet pierced his ear, has now become an iconic image and cements his stature as a martyr, and one that he has always portrayed himself as, if not a victim.

Taking a step back we have to remember that he has told so many lies about the mundane, for example how many people showed up at his inauguration, claiming more than that of Barack Obama, to embracing the deep state conspiracy, aided by such figures as Marjorie Taylor Greene, and that Mexico was sending rapists to American shores, ostensibly as immigrants; migrants being put up in luxury hotels by New York city administration officials, to the dangerous, that ingesting bleach could “cure” the Covid virus.

The fact that so many people have embraced these lies, and the very danger that has incited people to the attack on the US Capitol on January 6th speaks volumes of what has become the Big Lie, that Joe Biden was not the lawfully elected president of the United States.

The rhetoric, along with the lies that has been so incendiary it’s frightening to hear people say that the off the cuff remark by Biden that he had Trump in his target like a bullseye, and that helped fuel the gunman that fired off rounds in rural Western Pennsylvania is incalculably false.

Facing the inherent danger of falsehoods now gives rise to sympathy for the shooting, but it will soon be back to the accusations, and the grandstanding that has become part of not simply American politicking, but the 21st century tenor of life in America.

The incendiary comments of Trump, now aided by his vice presidential candidate JD Vance, a junior senator from Ohio, whose earlier remarks blaming Democrats for the shooting (along with Speaker of the House Mike Johnson) has fueled the falsehoods Trump, and who are now making statements to turn down the political rhetoric seems ironic.

Vance said on social media, “The central promise of the Biden campaign is that President Donald Trump is an authoritarian fascist who must be stopped at all costs,” and “That rhetoric led directly to President Trump’s attempted assassination.”

Against this background was, and which may possibly resurface, the media driven attempt to get Biden to stand down as a candidate for the November election, and to find someone younger, and possibly dynamic, from the ranks of younger lawmakers, and while we’ve noted the difficult of vetting presidential candidates, most of whom have never faced such close scrutiny, and among them is Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer herself the target of a far right wing group planning to kidnap her, and who held Trump as a hero.

The threat of a brokered convention in Chicago, is about as concerning as it is for a repeat of the violent suppression of demonstrators at the 1968 Democratic Convention, in an already overheated atmosphere that again could possibly be violent. 

What is now seen are two elders battling it out for a change, or a sustained democracy, and one not only of the values espoused or the future of the nation, but its soul.

June Jobs Report shows US still strong

Resiliency is back on the front burner to describe the US Jobs outlook after Friday’s release by the Labor Dept., that showed 206,000 non farm jobs, and a slight uptick in the unemployment banner of 4.1 percent, all of which has showed a slight cooling off in American employment, and which has given hope to some that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates, but as we have said before, in many previous posts, that the chair, Jerome Powell, is data driven, and the data is not quite there yet as we see with this report.

There has been a shift in the areas that show gains, leisure and hospitality have dipped, as has retail and construction, with the strongest gains showing in education, health care, and state and government employment.

The good news is that this is the 42nd straight month of job gains, and this steady pace, despite the naysayers who predicted a recession; and, most importantly wages have increased to 0.3 percent from May, and lower wage earners have seen their incomes rise, an important move, since they hey spend a greater portion of their income on housing, and other essentials.

For others wages have increased to exceed inflation, helping those people keep pace, and even a little extra, for vacations, and that favorite American pastime: dining out.

This is especially true for those in government employment which peaked at 70,000, health care at 49,000, and a bit of a sleeper category, social assistance which hit 34,000.

Of note construction added 27,000 jobs, and retail changed little 9,000, despite an earlier trend up earlier in the year the report noted, but not quite the major loss that some have stated.

Mary Daly, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, said in a speech before the report was released on Friday, “At this point, we have a good labor market, but not a frothy one,” but added, :future labor market slowing could translate into higher unemployment, as firms need to adjust not just vacancies but actual jobs.”

Revisions of the jobs report are the norm, and both April and May have been revised downward, April now at 108,000, and May to 218,000, which might appear to be examined by Powell and the Federal Open Market Committee, at their next meeting.

In the absence of the London bookies, Americans, especially the stock market, are hedging their bets and are looking at September as their month for interest rates cuts, but, many people, both professionals and consumers, forget that interest rates are cut to stimulate a weakening economy, not to strengthen it, a fact that even many in the media seem to forget.

Neil Dutter at Renaissance Macro Research, was reported, in a note, by The New York TImes, stating, “today’s employment report ought to firm up expectations of a September rate cut.” and added that the cool off, slight as it might be for September, if not at this month’s meeting, that “they ought to make a strong signal a cut is coming.”

Powell himself, true to his pattern, has said, more cooling data would make the grade for a cut, saying, “like what we’ve been seeing recently,” before any rate cutting, and “We’d also like to see the labor market remain strong, We’ve said that if we saw the labor market unexpectedly weakening, that is also something that could call for a reaction.”

One area of note is the dramatic loss of temporary help services, down by 49,00 for the month, taking down that category of business services, and as CNN reported “is often closely watched by economists as it could serve as a forward looking data point in an an otherwise lagging indicator,: since as business grow they hire more temps and if times are tougher, the temp workers are the first to go.”

After first debate, concerns grow about Biden

The much anticipated rematch between President Joe Biden and Donald Trump, the presumed Republican candidate for president in the November 2024 election, the day after their debate garnered headlines the following day when Biden suffering from an obvious head cold tripped over his words, and seemingly lost his train of thought, something that nearly anyone else would have been forgiven, but in less than 72 hours, the national press had a field day saying that his age was an obvious deterrent to continuing his candidacy as the Democratic candidate.

Trump, by contrast, only a few years Biden’s junior, was relatively calm, compared to previous debates in 2020, but was still rolling with lies about immigration, the Southern Border, abortion, inflation, and the economy, yet it was those few gaffes that not only led the media, but also the internet and the social media microblogging site X, formerly known as Twitter.

As we have previously noted, age, which has been carefully studied by psychologists can vary across the spectrum, and while undoubtedly the incumbent and his staff regret those lapses, it's debatable that Bidin is not fit for another term in the White House.

There are some polls that indicate a lack of confidence for some voters and Intelligencer reported on their website that, “According to the results of USA Today–Suffolk’s national poll of 1,000 registered voters (conducted over the weekend), 41 percent of Democrats said Biden should be replaced as the party’s nominee, as did 37 percent of Democrats who said they still planned to vote for him following the debate. Fifty percent of respondents said Trump won the debate, while only 11 percent said Biden won, and, per USA Today’s summary, “when asked an open-ended question about why they thought one candidate or the other had prevailed, most cited either the strength or the weakness of their mental acuity.”

Calls for him to dropout have helped print media, in its prized location, above the fold, and others in the media, smelling blood in the water have leapt to the forefront, but what is notable is that they have largely ignored the lies and falsifications that Trump, appealing to his base, said last Thursday evening.

While it’s unlikely that such a move by Biden will happen already there are names being floated as possible contenders, Gov. Gavin Newsom, of California, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Gov. JB Prtizker of Illinois, Josh Shaprio, former attorney general of Pennsylvania, and Vice President Kamala Harris, who despite low approval ratings, and some early mistakes from Biden, such as giving her a portfolio, similar to his under President Obama, of what The New York Times called “intractable” and “polarizing” issues of “illegal migration and voting rights”, as a seemingly coercive, yet despite those claims, the former prosecutor and senator from California has had a definite upwards shift, not only in stature, but staff to include experienced political operatives.

The traditional Sunday chat shows featured “Maryland Gov. Wes Moore [who] said Sunday that he will not seek the Democratic nomination this year and he does not foresee President Biden leaving the race, making clear that the president is staying the course despite the bruising debate performance that sparked concern among some members of the party last week. 

"Joe Biden is not going to take himself out of this race – nor should he," Moore said on "Face the Nation," making clear that he "will not" seek the nomination.   

The report also noted that, “Moore, a rising star within the party, has been among a group of names floated should Biden leave the race,” but stressed that, "Joe Biden is our nominee, Joe Biden is our leader, and Joe Biden has earned — and Joe Biden deserves — the confidence, the respect, and frankly the partnership that we now have to provide to him." 

There are issues with all of these candidates, the most important being as former Senator Barbara Boxer told the Times,” It’s not as easy as it sounds, being vetted for president is like no other vetting. We don’t know what these people would do.”

What might be the wiser course for the Democrats is to have, not only Harris but other key administration officials fan out across the country to counter the lies that Trump said in the debate. A short list, of which would be:

That he was “the one that got the insulin down for the seniors.”; that “everybody” including not one, but all legal scholars, wanted to end Roe V. Wade; that Biden is fully responsible for inflation; that some states allow for abortions after birth, run, of course, by Democrats; and, of course, his standard punch lines about immigration, that in New York, migrants are being sheltered in luxury hotels, are poisoning the blood of Americans, that Biden is putting all migrants on social security, and that they're being sent by their governments from their prisons, and that there have been nearly 18 million to 20 million sent to the US by the Biden administration, figure that most government officials and researchers put at about one third of that. 

The Associated Press reported that, “Biden appeared to acknowledge the criticism during a rally in Raleigh, North Carolina, saying” I don’t debate as well as I used to.” But he added, “I know how to do this job. I know how to get things done.” Speaking for 18 minutes, Biden appeared far more animated than he had the night before as he excoriated Trump for his “lies” and for waging a campaign aimed at “revenge and retribution.”

Fundraising for Biden increased the day of the debate according to his campaign to the tune of $27 million, in an attempt to increase the coffers, and to meet, or outpace Trump whose war chest increased to $141 million on the day he was convicted in a New York courtroom on 34 felony counts, to influence the 2020 election.

Biden himself, speaking at a fundraiser at the home of New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy said, “I understand the concern after the debate. I get it” and, “I didn’t have a great night. But I’m going to be fighting harder and going to need you with me to get it done.”

Even more succinctly the president added, ““I know I’m not a young man,” Biden said to cheers. “I don’t walk as easy as I used to. I don’t speak as smoothly as I used to. I don’t debate as well as I used to, but I know what I do know: I know how to tell the truth!”

May Jobs Report creates concern for Federal Reserve

Friday’s job report from the US labor Department brought a whopping 272,000 non farm jobs to the American economy, this time far exceeding expectations of 180,00 that most economists had predicted, and with an uptick in the banner unemployment rate of 4.0 from the previous month of April at 3.9 percent, none of which is going to assuage the fears of the Federal Reserve meeting next week to determine the course of the economy, and what many government officials, media pundits and columnists want to see: an interest rate cut.

Making that prediction even more complicated is the increase in wages, to 4.1, and with higher prices and inflation still hovering above their historic mandate of 2 percent, this is a hope against hope for those observers, as more jobs at higher wages will put the brakes on a cut, from the current range from 5.25 to 5 percent.

It should be noted that inflation currently hovering at 3.4 percent has taken a tumble from its 9.0 average in June of 2022.

Hovering in the background is the November presidential election in a rematch between incumbent President Joe Biden, and former president Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee. General trust in the handling of the US economy favors Trump, according to an ABC News/Ipsos poll.

That poll shows Trump with 46 percent, and Biden at 32 percent, despite the fact that any US president has the finger of the scale of the American economy. 

What can easily be determined is that the office holder can influence economic decisions, to a point, and they can, if their party dominates Congress, they, together, can pass legislation to increase certain legislation, such as tax cuts.  The last time this was seen, most recently was Trump passing a permanent cut for the wealthiest of corporations, and a temporary cut for Jane and Joe Average.

The unemployment rate of 4.1 is the highest since January of 2022, reported The New York Times, but it is something that many of the public may not realize, as they do their weekly grocery shopping, and that level of anger might fuel what is predicted to be a dominant issue in the race to the White House.

Confidence in the economy by Americans has fallen to 14 percent, and despite the fall from the high point of inflation, those prices at the supermarket, and at the gas pump are making consumers wince.

To that effect, the Associated Press reported at the end of May that Biden is “releasing 1 million barrels of gasoline from a Northeast reserve established after Superstorm Sand in a bid to lower prices at the pump this summer.”

Located in New Jersey and Maine these sales, “will be allocated in increments of 100,000 barrels at a time.”

The sales will create “a competitive bidding process that ensures gasoline can flow into local retailers ahead of the Fourth of July holiday and sold at competitive prices, the Energy Department said.”

Most importantly, AP noted that,“Tapping gasoline reserves is one of the few actions that presidents can take by themselves to try to control inflation, something that if voters perceive as high can be an election year liability for the party in control of the White House.”

Returning to the jobs outlook, the report shows there are dominant jobs topping the list, mostly in the service sector, particularly health care, and a by product of that surge has been an increase in the percentage of women working in these roles, and of those 68,000 jobs, many with women in their prime working years, from 25 to 54 years of age, hitting 78.1, according to BLS data.

While CNN noted that these levels were once high pre-pandemic, their return does signal an evening of the playing field, and, of course, the option of working at home, for white collar women, has also increased the numbers.

 

Government jobs also did a rebound, especially local and state government, much like in April at 43,000, and hospitality remained steady at 42,000 jobs, and with many Americans enjoying dining out, and with their increased wages those numbers should continue to rise.

The Times also added, “The headline jobs number is a source for celebration for President Biden: “On my watch, 15.6 million more Americans have the dignity and respect that comes with a job,” he said in a statement. But Mr. Biden is trailing in the polls, possibly indicating that Americans care more about high prices than they do about plentiful jobs.”

Taking a look at the household survey, we get a different picture: “That data showed that the number of people who were employed last month actually fell by 408,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4 percent for the first time in more than two years,” and while there are two different methodologies, employers survey only focusing on employees, the household survey also includes independent contractors, and the self employed, noted the Times, and citing a discrepancy, they added,“Adjusting the household survey to align with the concepts used in the employer survey makes the job losses in May look larger, not smaller.”

If this does occur it might be welcome news for the Feds, who are not expected to cut rates, when they meet dashing hopes for a July cut, but some are betting on a September cut, but as we have previously noted, chair Jerome Powell is committed to the data before he and the Federal Open Market Committee make any cuts.

The recent release of the Consumer Price Index showed that, absent food and energy which are volatile, there was an overall rise in inflation of 0.2 in May, but shelter costs increased to 0.4 percent, "the largest factor" in the monthly index according to the Bureau of Labor and Statistics. They also reported that there was a 0.1 percent increase in food prices.

Overall, for all urban consumers BLS reported the Index was "unchanged, seasonally adjusted, and rose 3.3 percent over the last 12 month, not seasonally adjusted." This is slightly under the expected percentage of 3.5 predicted by many economists.

Of concern will be the increase in hourly wages, and that increase to 4.1 percent coupled with the increase in jobs, without the discrepancy between the two surveys is something that the Fed will certainly keep tabs in in any future rate cuts.

For May, Labor Force Participation for those 20 to 24 years of age fell from 72.4 in April to 70.8 percent in May, less than expected, and June college graduates may have a harder time finding jobs.

Updated June 17, 2024 at 1: 42 p.m. CDT

Trump conviction and future predictions

Thursday's conviction of former president Donald Trump on 34 counts of falsifying business records to cover up an extramarital sexual encounter with adult film star Stormy Daniels has set off a firestorm of criticism, commentaries and predictions, nearly all predictive, but not especially reliable of future events.

Conjecture, in some minds, might be one tenth of the law but time will only tell what lies in store for Trump the presumed nominee for the Republican presidential contest is certainly now for the history books: the first time a former president has been criminally convicted of a crime, this one to pay hush money of $130,000 to the actress through his fixit man, Micahel Cohen, and disguised as attorney fees, but both the falsification of the records coupled with the attempt to influence the 2016 presidential election, illegal under New York State law, brought the 34 count indictment and conviction.

Faith in the often fraught American judicial system has won, say many observers, while those in the Trump camp cry foul politics instead of justice and some are calling it a witch hunt brought to bear on an innocent man. Politics may provide the backdrop, but it does not provide the fullest picture.

Trump himself said, “It’s a rigged trial, it was a rigged trial,” stating another falsehood of the many that has been captured by the national media. He added that Judge Juan Merchan was conflicted, “we had a conflicted judge, highly conflicted. There's never been a more conflicted judge.” 

In a further hyperbole he added that whole the judge, “looks like an angel, but he’s really the devil.”

No matter whose side one is on, the verdict does signal that many of the suspicions that many people had about Trump, his business dealings and his extramarital affairs have now been brought to light.

In the scheme of his other suits, both state and federal, this is merely an opening salvo, as Trump faces federal charges for the illegal confiscation of government papers when he left office, which prompted an FBI raid on his home in Florida, and attempts to overturn the 2020 presidential election, plus state charges in Georgia of election interference.

What may also follow are charges against underpaying employees, and contractors and also overinflating the value of individual properties to take a tax deduction. In short this is only the beginning.

The question of many minds is how will this conviction, since he is now a felon, affect his standing for the presidency; and, perhaps a surprise, there is nothing to suggest that he cannot, and furthermore he can vote for himself, since under New York State law felons can vote after filling the terms of his conviction, be they probation, prison term, highly unlikely in a white collar crime for a first time offender, but it should be noted that Trump like Eugene Debs in the 1920s could run for office from prison.

For voters, both Democratic and Republican many have already made up their minds, but the one area to be determined is how swing or independent voters will be affected, but before we get there, let’s look at what an NPR/PBSNewsHour/Marist poll that said:

“Overall, two-thirds (67%) said a guilty verdict would make no difference to their vote; three-quarters (76%) said the same of a not guilty verdict.

Roughly 1 in 6 voters (17%) said a guilty verdict would make them less likely to vote for Trump. That was true of a quarter of nonwhites and 1 in 5 voters who make less than $50,000 a year and those under 45.”

Then there is the money, following the money might lead to some surfeit of predictions and in the hours following the conviction, the Trump campaign said that they had raised $52.8 million in the 24 hours after the conviction, reported CBS News.

Next up besides the independent and swing voters are the Nikki Haley supporters, who have voted for her by 20 percent in the primaries of Indiana, Maryland and Nebraska, as a protest vote.

There have been attempts by some in the Biden campaign to lure them to their side and there may be an inroad since many of her supporters are college educated, suburban professionals, many of whom are women, who might be turned off by the unsavory details of the Daniels encounter.

An Economist/YouGov poll found that some voters felt that the trial and the conviction were unfair, with 10 percent fair, and 16 percent neutral, but have also noted that the distance between Trump and Biden is close, and averaging the data they find that the median result is 45 percent for Trump and 44 percent for Biden but they do give the cautionary note “that pre election polls have limited predictive power for the final result until the end of the summer in an election year.”

April Jobs Report brings much needed cooling

High expectations met the reality of lowered numbers for the April Jobs report issued by the US Labor Dept. on Friday giving 175,000 non farm jobs versus the expected 240,000 that most economists and observers predicted, and while some may be disappointed at the news, it’s good news for the Federal Reserve Bank, especially after the end of their recent meeting, where the Federal Open Market Committee decided, in agreement with its chair Jerome Powell, as it gives them some optimism as they deal with higher inflation, from last month’s CPI report, and while it was not a significant climb, it was a claim nevertheless and creates a challenge for the central bank as they struggle to meet their twinned mandate of 2 % inflation, and full employment.

This cooling down might lead the Feds to cut rates, currently on hold for now at 5.3 %, but in what has been a seesaw of many reports, not to mention market reactions, in the not too distant past, many in government and the banking community predicted a recession, and pooh poohed even the very idea of a soft landing that both Powell and Secretary Treasurer Janet Yellen said was going to happen. The fact that there was no recession and that the soft landing in fact occurred shows the unpredictable, but steady, nature of the American economy, over the last 18 months.

“The slower jobs report will be welcome news to the Federal Reserve and signals that interest rate hikes are impacting a labor market that has been extremely resilient over the past few years,” said Joseph Gaffoglio, president of Mutual of America Capital Management to The Hill.

The good news is that despite all, the American economy being solid, the elephant in the room is, of, course, inflation, and after a severe 4th quarter reduction in 2023, and  some dwindling, it rose to 3.5% in March, from 3.2% In February..

“It’s not a bad economy; it’s still a healthy economy,” said Perc Pineda, chief economist at the Plastics Industry Association to The New York Times; “I think it’s part of the cycle. We cannot continue robust growth indefinitely considering the limits of our economy.”

Even with a moderation in wages, to 3/9 %,  they are still above inflationary prices creating a considerable drive in consumer spending, the driver of the US economy, but where does that money come from? As we have noted before, it's still the surplus of pandemic savings, but economists are concerned about what happens when that money runs out, and savings are depleted.

The devil is in the details as the old cliché states, and the heavy hitters, for April, are still showing remarkable strength, with an increase  in health care and education adding 95,000 new jobs, retail which had a shaky report in the 4th quarter of last year, now with a surfeit of 20,000 jobs; construction still resilient with 9,000 new jobs, which some are attributing to state and local building efforts, and manufacturing is holding steady by adding 8,000 jobs, and while leisure and hospitality are still gaining, but at a disappointing 5,000 new jobs.

The unemployment rate inched up to 3.8% not a significant figure but, “Layoffs remained low and most job sectors appeared stable. Wage growth eased notably, though the unemployment rate remained under 4 percent for the 27th consecutive month — the longest stretch in more than 50 years. In fact, some economists said that the April data offered hopeful hints that the economy was headed toward a more stable footing, "reported the Times.

The GDP has increased, albeit slower than desired, at 1.6 annually, and has been attributed to regional challenges in finding a job, the durability of inflation, and those high interest rates that plague some consumers, but as noted, some are still spending freely.

The losers?  That catch all category of business services that showed a negative balance of 4,000, accompanied by a corresponding drop in temporary hires. And, this might be a cost factor since hiring costs have increased by 4.2 %, and were 2.9% in 2023.

One strong area of gains was for women, at prime working age, 25 to 54 years old, at 78 % or 307, 000 and while this is welcome news, there is still an income gap between those with men, and has deeply affected lower income women of color; and, child care, unsubsidized in the US, forces many women to work part time, leading to structural inequality.

Of course, the White House has looked at the report and is pleased, both with the cooling that could lead to future interest cuts, but that the slight uptick in unemployment is still showing a solid economy, and in fact the household telephone survey is nearly tied with this figure.

“Just 34 percent of voters approve of how President Biden has handled the economy, and 29 percent approve of his handling of inflation, according to a recent CNN poll, in their reporting, and “He’s also trailing former President Trump, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, who voters perceive would do a better job with the economy than Biden,” in their coverage for the April report. 

Meanwhile, as was noted, by the Times, “On Truth Social, Donald J. Trump, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, declared the report showed “HORRIBLE JOB NUMBERS.” Under Mr. Trump’s presidency, before the pandemic’s impact took hold in March 2020, monthly job gains averaged about 180,000 — just a tad higher than April’s gain.”

As the 2024 election season ramps up, so has scrutiny of the Fed and its interest rate policy, but the Federal Reserve maintains a traditional detachment from politics, and as Powell noted:

“If you go down that road, where do you stop? So, we’re not on that road. It just isn’t part of our thinking.”